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CHAPTER 8:

AGRICULTURE

Second Order Draft for Stakeholder Comment

Integrating Author: Noel Oettle

Contributing Authors: Lehman Lindeque, Justin du Toit, Igshaan Samuels

Corresponding Authors: Antony Osler, Susi Vetter, Emma Archer Van Garderen

Peer Reviewers: Patrick Drohan, Lisa Kelly, Baldur Koch, Dave Messersmith,

Will Rifkin

1

CONTENTS

CHAPTER 8: AGRICULTURE 8-5

8.1 Introduction and scope 8-5

8.1.1 Relevance of the agricultural study 8-5

8.1.2 International and national context 8-5

8.2 Scope of the study 8-6

8.2.1 Agricultural parameters 8-6

8.2.2 Links to other strategic issues 8-7

8.3 Legislation applicable 8-8

8.4 Terms of reference 8-8

8.5 Agriculture in the study area 8-9

8.5.1 General overview 8-9

8.5.2 Main farming types 8-9

8.5.2.1 Commercial sheep production in the arid west 8-10

8.5.2.2 Commercial sheep and/or cattle production in the east 8-10

8.5.2.3 Commercial goat production in the south-east 8-10

8.5.2.4 Wildlife farming 8-10

8.5.2.5 Commercial ostrich farming 8-11

8.5.2.6 Communal sheep, goat, and sheep production in the far eastern

section 8-11

8.5.2.7 Small-scale and subsistence farming 8-11

8.5.3 Current agricultural trends in the study area 8-12

8.5.3.1 Economic trends 8-12

8.5.3.2 Land use changes 8-12

8.5.3.3 Farm management practices 8-13

8.5.3.4 Game farming 8-13

8.6 Agricultural sensitivity evaluation 8-15

8.6.1 Agricultural characteristics of the study area 8-15

8.6.2 The Impact System 8-15

8.6.3 Agricultural Sensitivity 8-18

8.6.3.1 Potential negative impacts 8-26

8.7 Risk assessment 8-28

8.8 Management of potential agricultural impacts 8-31

8.8.1 Potential Positive Impacts 8-31

8.8.2 Management strategies 8-32

8.8.2.1 Mitigation measures 8-33

2

8.8.2.2 Offsets 8-39

8.8.3 Limits of acceptable change 8-39

8.9 Conclusion and recommendations 8-40

8.10 Reference list 8-41

Tables

Table 8.1: Methods of acquiring a game farm (Cloete, 2015): 8-15

Table 8.2: Description of factors contributing towards agricultural sensitivity index 8-18

Table 8.3: Assignment of sensitivity classes to agricultural sensitivity index values 8-26

Table 8.4: Potential agricultural impacts 8-28

Table 8.5: Risk assessment matrix 8-30

Table 8.6: Possible agricultural impacts and options for mitigation 8-35

Table 8.7: Potential exclusion zones for shale gas activity 8-39

Figures

Figure 8.1: Agriculture as a complex socio-ecological system (Marta G. Rivera-Ferre, 2013) 8-7

Figure 8.2: Land capability sensitivity index value per Quaternary Catchment 8-20

Figure 8.3: Grazing land sensitivity index 8-21

Figure 8.4: Rivers sensitivity index per quaternary catchment 8-22

Figure 8.5: Dams sensitivity index 8-23

Figure 8.6: Borehole sensitivity index value 8-24

Figure 8.7: Agricultural cultivation sensitivity index value per quaternary catchment 8-25

Figure 8.8: Combined agricultural index value per quaternary catchment 8-27

3

Executive Summary 1

The biggest potential threat of shale gas development (SGD) to agricultural production in the 2

study area relates to the use and availability of water resources. In this area ground water is 3

essential for human and livestock consumption, and surface water is also utilized for livestock and 4

irrigation purposes. In the dryer central and western parts of the study area, farming communities rely 5

exclusively on boreholes for the provisioning of water for humans and livestock consumption. This is 6

due to the unreliable and limited rainfall in the area and high evapotranspiration rates, resulting in 7

limited quantities of available surface water. The nature of operations needed for the exploration and 8

extraction of shale gas poses a serious threat firstly to ground water aquifers through potential leakage 9

of outflow and produced water into shallower aquifers, and to a lesser extent (through spillage) to 10

surface water resources. Opportunities also exist to utilize produced water for productive purposes, 11

should it be either of an acceptable quality or amenable to purification. 12

13

SGD will not have a significant impact on agricultural productivity in the long term if the threat 14

to ground water resources is adequately addressed. The central and western parts of the study area 15

are areas of low potential productivity in a national context, yet have made a relatively constant 16

contribution to regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and sustained local livelihoods. Due to low 17

and variable rainfall and inadequate access to water resources, the area offers limited options and 18

opportunities for intensive farming operations. The area is thus typified by large, extensive farms and 19

low levels of population. There is a trend amongst land users to move towards alternative sources of 20

land-based incomes such as eco-tourism and hunting. Local land users draw on profound local 21

knowledge to sustainably use these vulnerable land-based resources (section 8.2.1). 22

23

Any intervention that destroys current land-based livelihoods is likely to have the long-term 24

impact on the resilience of both the area and its land users. Fragmentation of the landscape to 25

accommodate SGD must be carefully planned to minimize the negative impacts on agricultural 26

enterprises. Some land may be taken out of production while shale gas extraction is underway (leased 27

or purchased) which would potentially have a positive impact on the incomes of agricultural land 28

users and would only have a limited negative impact on long-term food security as it would not be 29

lost to production in the long term, and may benefit from being rested from grazing. 30

31

Sufficient policy, legislation and regulation exist to protect the natural agricultural resources, 32

but the enforcement of these instruments remains a huge stumbling block to sustainable 33

resource use and prevention of the degradation of agricultural resources. Current legislative and 34

policy instruments include the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (CARA), Act 70 of 1970 35

(Subdivision of Agricultural Land), the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act, and the 36

4

National Policy on Food and Nutrition Security. However, the institutional capacity, skills and 1

knowledge to implement or enforce these measures are limited, especially at local implementation 2

level. It is recommended that responsible institutions invest sufficient resources to address these 3

deficiencies in order to ensure the sustainable utilization of natural resources and to protect rural 4

livelihoods. 5

6

Local economic development associated with the exploration and extraction of shale gas will 7

stimulate local markets for agricultural products and to increase their incomes from the rental 8

of land and infrastructure to gas exploration and extraction companies. Significant numbers of 9

locally-based staff of shale gas exploration and extraction companies will increase demand for 10

agricultural products. Shale gas operations are also likely to attract non-employees in service 11

enterprises who will also contribute to the local economy and consume agricultural products. 12

Operators may opt to rent land and infrastructure such as storage facilities from agricultural land users 13

and provide significant cash incomes to them. 14

15

Shale gas exploration and exploitation will put the protection of the privacy and security of land 16

users at risk. Currently land users enjoy high levels of control over the farm-based resources 17

resulting in minimal losses of livestock and other property, and good levels of overall safety and 18

security of rural communities, including land users, farm workers and their families. This is in part a 19

result of minimal through-traffic on most farms, and relatively stable local populations. The 20

anticipated influx of staff of shale gas companies and the situating of exploration and extraction 21

operations on farm land will expose farm property, for example livestock, to theft and increase 22

vulnerability of local communities to farm attacks and violence. 23

24

Long-term monitoring and evaluation is essential to measure the effectiveness and efficiency of 25

mitigation measures applicable to all scenarios of shale gas extraction, and thus to ensure 26

continuous improvement and positive impact of these measures on the sustainable use of 27

agricultural resources. The effective implementation of mitigation and rehabilitation measures is 28

important to limit the negative impacts of shale gas operations. In order to measure effective 29

implementation and maintenance of infrastructure, monitoring and evaluation of key variables (as 30

described in section 8.8.2) is necessary. The effective implementation of such a long-term monitoring 31

programme depends on the availability of adequate resources, especially at the level of local 32

implementation. It is recommended that sufficient capacity and skills are developed within the 33

appropriate institutions to ensure the effective implementation thereof over the necessary time-scales. 34

It is further recommended that the outcomes of these monitoring and evaluation processes be fed back 35

to relevant stakeholders to ensure continuous improvement. 36

5

CHAPTER 8: AGRICULTURE 1

8.1 Introduction and scope 2

8.1.1 Relevance of the agricultural study 3

Agriculture has been identified as the dominant land use in the Karoo region of South Africa, which 4

covers virtually the entire study area. The value of agricultural production in South Africa was R 218 5

045 million in 2014, while its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was approximately 6

R 69 423 million. The primary agricultural sector has grown by an average of approximately 11,8 % 7

per annum since 1970, while the total economy grew by 14,9 % per annum over the same period, 8

resulting in a decline in agriculture’s share of the GDP from 7,1 % in 1970 to 2,0 % in 2013. 9

10

Agriculture’s prominent, indirect role in the economy is a function of backward and forward linkages 11

to other sectors. Purchases of goods such as fertilisers, chemicals and implements form backward 12

linkages with the manufacturing sector, while forward linkages are established through supplying raw 13

materials to the manufacturing industry. About 70 % of agricultural output is used as intermediate 14

products in the sector. Agriculture is therefore a crucial sector and an important engine of growth for 15

the rest of the economy (Department of Agriculture, 2014). 16

8.1.2 International and national context 17

While the impacts of shale gas development (SGD) on agricultural production have been a concern in 18

Queensland, Australia (Thomas, 2015), the most thorough research on the impact of these activities 19

on small to medium scale farms was conducted in Pennsylvania (Malin and DeMaster, 2015) and 20

Wyoming (Haggerty and McBride, 2016). All of these studies point to the double-edged sword of 21

unconventional gas projects providing an alternative income to struggling farmers while 22

compromising their natural resources and leading to conflict and often termination of farming. 23

24

Since the possibility of shale gas exploration is very new in South Africa, it is met with the expected 25

fears and suspicion. Even though the larger study area is not known for large areas of productive crop 26

fields, it supports a vast area dominated by meat production and smaller niche areas of irrigated crops, 27

often produced organically. There are currently no policies in South Africa for the assessment and 28

management of shale gas impacts on agriculture. Therefore it is important that lessons learned from 29

the international agricultural communities impacted by these activities be used to inform policies and 30

legislation that will prevent these impacts as far as possible from occurring in the study area and the 31

rest of the country. 32

33

6

8.2 Scope of the study 1

8.2.1 Agricultural parameters 2

Land, according to Gwartney in Wessels & Willemse (Wessels, 2013), is defined as “everything 3

outside of people themselves or the products they make. It includes all natural resources, air, soil, 4

minerals and water is included in the definition of land”. In other words, everything that is freely 5

supplied by nature, and not by man, is categorized as land. Land is important and plays a pivotal role 6

in social, political, environmental, economic and agricultural disciplines. 7

8

In contrast to this, agriculture as a study field can be defined as “the cultivation of plants, animals, 9

fungi and other life forms for food, fibre, biofuel, medicinal and other products used to sustain and 10

enhance human life” (International Labour Organisation, 1999). For the purpose of this chapter 11

agriculture will therefore entail food and fibre production from natural resources to support the 12

livelihoods of land users (and their employees), both within the cash economy and for subsistence and 13

cultural purposes. It is considered to be the effective management of the synergies between climate, 14

soil, vegetation, water and livestock that sustains the livelihoods of most people in the Karoo. 15

16

Agriculture functions also on different levels or scales, including both a social subsystem and an 17

ecological subsystem. Decision making within agriculture need to consider both these subsystems as 18

well as the agroecosystems agriculture depend on as well as the governance systems organizing and 19

regulating agriculture in for example, the study area. According to Rivera-Ferre et al, (Marta G. 20

Rivera-Ferre, 2013), agriculture can therefore be seen as a complex socio-ecological system and both 21

these aspects need to be considered in decision making related to agriculture. The complexity of 22

agriculture and the importance to focus on both the social and ecological aspects related to decision-23

making within the agricultural field is further illustrated by the linkage between the agriculture 24

chapter and other chapters of this study. 25

26

-7

1

Figure 8.1: Agriculture as a complex socio-ecological system (Marta G. Rivera-Ferre, 2013) 2 3

8.2.2 Links to other strategic issues 4

Considering the definition land, the direct dependency of agriculture on land, but also the important 5

role land play in other disciplines like social, political, environmental and economical disciplines and 6

one could expect the agricultural chapter to have linkages with other study fields. Figure 8.1 indicates 7

the relative strength of the linkages between the agricultural field and other study fields’ that are part 8

of this study. 9

10

The strong dependency of agriculture in the study area to the basic natural resources, terrestrial 11

biodiversity and water, is clearly indicated in Figure 8.1. The agriculture chapter need therefore to be 12

read keeping the impacts of these chapters in mind. Agriculture is all about people utilizing natural 13

resources to produce food and fibre to ensure food security for a growing South African population. 14

Farmers are part of a bigger community, rely on each other, farm workers, and people in towns, users 15

of agricultural produce to make a living and give them reason for existence. This relationship, 16

secondary to their dependency on natural agricultural resources, are demonstrated in the relative 17

strength of the linkage with spatial planning and infrastructure, tourism, sense of place and social 18

fabric. 19

8

8.3 Legislation applicable 1

Apart from all the environmental legislation that address avoiding degradation of the environment 2

such as the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA), the following South African 3

legislation specifically applies to agricultural resources: 4

The Conservation of Agricultural Resources (Act 43 of 1983) states that the degradation of 5

the agricultural potential of soil is illegal. 6

The Conservation of Agriculture Resources Act 43 of 1983 (CARA) requires the protection of 7

land against soil erosion and the prevention of water logging and salinization of soils by 8

means of suitable soil conservation works to be constructed and maintained. The utilisation of 9

marshes, water sponges and watercourses are also addressed. 10

The National Water Act is concerned with the quality and quantity of water used, including 11

for agriculture. Any impacts caused by shale gas activities on the volume and quality of 12

water available for authorised agricultural water use, will be an infringement of this act. 13

14

However, CARA is an out-dated Act with regards to protection of agricultural resources against new 15

developments. To ensure more sufficient protection of agricultural resources, it is recommended that 16

the IFC Performance Standards on Environmental and Social Sustainability that became effective on 1 17

January, 2012 also be considered. With regards to the impacts on agricultural resources, the 18

following standards and guidelines are of most relevance: 19

IFC Performance Standard 3: Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention provides 20

guidelines on project-level approach to resource efficiency and pollution prevention, in this 21

case specifically for land management. 22

IFC Guidelines for Mining which recommend practices for sustainable land use and topsoil 23

management. 24

IFC General Environmental, Health and Safety Guidelines: Contaminated Land for the 25

detection, remediation and monitoring of contaminated land. 26

8.4 Terms of reference 27

The main purpose of this study was to identify the potential risks and impacts of shale gas exploration 28

and production on agriculture, the vulnerability of the area to these operations and making strategic 29

policy recommendations towards the sustainable management of these risks, impacts and 30

vulnerabilities. To enable the authors to describe the potential impacts, risk and vulnerabilities, 31

agriculture within the study area need to be put in context, to different agricultural systems in the 32

Karoo need to be described, their relative importance and some recent trends. Agriculture within the 33

study area is not only complex as explained before, but depends largely on a very limited supply of 34

9

natural resources making it a very vulnerable system when considering the potential impact of climate 1

change over the long term and climate vulnerability in the short and medium term. The main aim of 2

this study will be to develop a vulnerability map of the study area to provide on a quaternary 3

catchment scale, an index value indicating the relative vulnerability of agriculture within that 4

catchment to shale gas fracking. 5

8.5 Agriculture in the study area 6

8.5.1 General overview 7

Agriculture in the study area is heavily dependent on water, especially from aquifers since surface 8

water resources are very limited. First introduced in 1874, wind pumps raising groundwater made 9

permanent farms and towns in the Karoo possible. Underpinning the Karoo’s economy are its 7 10

million sheep, divided between 3 million hardy Dorpers and 4.3 million wool-bearing sheep like 11

Merinos, according to Cape Wools SA and National Wool Growers Association. There are also about 12

a million goats. The Karoo has long been a good producer of fibre, contributing 13 million kg of 13

South Africa’s annual 44 million kg of wool. It also produces all of South Africa’s 2.4 million kg of 14

mohair annually – around than 60 % of the world’s production – from some 670 000 angora goats. 15

Most of the wool and mohair is exported and brings in billions in foreign revenue for South Africa. 16

Primary types of farming in the area comprise: 17

Livestock, both extensive and intensive, for commercial and subsistence purposes 18

Dryland cultivation, including subsistence, small-scale and commercial 19

Cultivated irrigated land, both small scale and commercial 20

Game farming 21

Tourism-related production, including both eco-tourism and farm-stays 22

8.5.2 Main farming types 23

Almost the entire extent of the study area is used for extensive commercial livestock and/or wildlife 24

production. A small section, east of Queenstown (historically part of the Transkei) is farmed 25

communally. Where water is available, pastures or crops (including horticultural crops) are grown. 26

Where livestock is produced, farms are invariably divided into many paddocks to contain animals 27

(with different rotational systems), allowing for better animal control and veld management. Below 28

follows a generic description of the most widely used animal production systems with the study area. 29

10

8.5.2.1 Commercial sheep production in the arid west 1

The arid western region of the study area (approximately west of 24°E) is predominantly Karoo 2

vegetation. Vegetation is described as ‘sweetveld’, meaning that the quality of forage is high enough 3

throughout the year to allow animals to increase or at least maintain body weight (‘sourveld’ in 4

contrast has a low forage value during winter meaning that animals require supplementary feeding to 5

avoid losing weight). Carrying capacity of the veld is low, ranging from 17-90 ha/AU (ca. 3-15 6

ha/SSU). Veld provides most forage for animals, though during droughts supplementary licks, 7

pelletized feed or hay may be provided. Where available, irrigated pastures (lucerne in particular) 8

provide additional feed for animals, and may be used during the lambing season for improved 9

management and protection from predators. 10

8.5.2.2 Commercial sheep and/or cattle production in the east 11

The eastern section of the study area (approximately east of 24°E) experiences sufficient rainfall to 12

allow perennial grasses to contribute significantly to available forage for livestock, thereby allowing 13

for cattle to be farmed. Sheep and cattle are often produced together, though sheep-only and cattle-14

only farms do occur. Veld here is a mixture of sweetveld (lower lying, lower rainfall areas) and 15

sourveld (higher lying, higher rainfall), often with both types of veld occurring on single farming 16

units, in which case they would be separately fenced into different paddocks. On farms with 17

sweetveld and sourveld, animals typically utilise the sourveld during the summer months when the 18

quality is good, and move to the sweetveld when quality decreases and the weather turns cold. On 19

farms with a significant proportion of sourveld, animals are supplemented with nitrogen licks and 20

sometimes fed additional forage during the winter. Forage is usually produced on arable lands on the 21

farm. 22

8.5.2.3 Commercial goat production in the south-east 23

Goat production, either for meat or for mohair, takes place primarily in the savannah or thicket 24

biomes where trees and shrubs provide forage, with some production in the grassland and Nama-25

Karoo biomes. Sheep and cattle may also be present depending on the vegetation type. Angora goats 26

can easily die in wet and cold conditions, particularly if they have recently been shorn. Herd 27

management must thus be of a high standard, and ensure that Angoras are generally not farmed in 28

areas that regularly experience cold, wet weather. Boer goats are hardier animals. 29

8.5.2.4 Wildlife farming 30

Wildlife is present on most freehold farms across the study area. Dedicated ‘game-farms’ usually 31

have a tall perimeter fence (a ‘game-fence’) to prevent animals from foraging beyond the boundaries 32

11

of the farm. Within the farm boundary, animal movement is often unrestricted, though some wildlife 1

species are contained by normal livestock fencing (there are arguments for rotation of certain wildlife 2

species types at certain densities). In some areas several farms are combined to form conservancies. 3

Here, the movement of some wildlife species is unrestricted within the conservancy. In the case of 4

farms where lions are produced, two tall, parallel, electrified boundary fences are required for 5

containment. 6

8.5.2.5 Commercial ostrich farming 7

Ostrich production is centred in the arid south-western portions of the study area, but ostrich farms 8

also occur as far south as Grahamstown. Ostrich production is semi-intensive to intensive, with 9

animals relying on natural veld for only a small proportion of their dietary requirements. The 10

remainder of their feed is either bought or from irrigated pastures. 11

8.5.2.6 Communal sheep, goat, and sheep production in the far eastern section 12

In the far eastern section of the study area livestock is produced under communal farming tenure. 13

Wool production has been steadily increasing over the past approximately two decades and provides a 14

useful income for some farmers. The communal areas occur primarily in sourveld, though some 15

patches of sweetveld do occur. Animals are often not constrained within fenced paddocks but are 16

kraaled at night for protection against predators. Animal movement is controlled by herders. Animals 17

graze veld throughout the year, though in winter often rely on crop residues (e.g. maize stover) and 18

riverine areas for nutrition. 19

8.5.2.7 Small-scale and subsistence farming 20

Around hamlets, villages, and towns, small-scale farming or production is common. Production 21

enterprises range from ‘kitchen gardens’ through to small-holdings. Vegetable, fruit, pork and poultry 22

production are common, but are seldom the sole source of income. Small-holdings are usually 23

confined to riverine areas close to towns (e.g. Graaff-Reinet and Cradock). In towns without rivers 24

(e.g. Middelburg) there are very few (if any) small-holdings. On many small-holdings near towns, 25

arable lands have been invaded by the exotic alien plant Solanum elaeagnifolium (satansbos/ silver 26

nightshade), which is highly persistent, very difficult to eradicate, and which greatly reduces 27

agricultural potential. 28

12

8.5.3 Current agricultural trends in the study area 1

8.5.3.1 Economic trends 2

The Census of Commercial Agriculture 2008 reflected a 31 % decline in the number of farmers since 3

1993, resulting in the industry being left with fewer than 40 000 farms. The maize, wheat and dairy 4

sectors have been the hardest hit. Although the number of units has dropped during this time, gross 5

farm income (GFI) has increased by more than 300 %. With expenses growing by a relatively low 285 6

%, net farm income (NFI) grew by a staggering 410 % over this period. Because of this growth, the 7

net farm income per farm unit has increased significantly to five times more than what it was in 1993. 8

This was mainly due to economies of scale that kicked in as the units became fewer, but bigger. 9

10

In contrast to this, many smaller and more marginal farmers had to quit their farming enterprises as a 11

result of rising input costs and shrinking profits. These farmers had frequently been reliant on 12

subsidies and soft funding from institutions such as the Land Bank, and faced a situation where 13

government support was phased out at the same time as the markets opened to allow competition from 14

cheap imports. 15

8.5.3.2 Land use changes 16

Following the main agricultural trends in North America, Europe and Australia, land use changes are 17

also taking place in South Africa. Significantly, land use change is being driven by investors 18

purchasing farmland as a financial investment without the intention of farming it productively. 19

Research by Wessels and Willemse (Wessels, 2013) in the South-Eastern Nama Karoo confirmed that 20

purchasers do indeed buy farmland at prices much higher than the actual productive value of land, 21

primarily as an investment. Motivated by the sheer beauty and natural magnificence of the land, 22

which they believe will increase in value as natural land becomes scarcer, they believe that purchasing 23

land is a sound investment for the future. 24

25

The perception that the deeply rural ‘platteland’ areas such as the study area are economically 26

dwindling and under pressure, may be somewhat misplaced considering the on-going investment by 27

relatively wealthy urban people buying land for investment purposes. According to Wessels and 28

Willemse (2013), although life is still rewarding in these areas, the economic value of production is 29

exported to the cities and sold at a relatively low cost, whereas services are imported at a premium, 30

creating relative impoverishment in rural areas. The scarcity of farmland and the desire of many city 31

dwellers for a more relaxed rural lifestyle that is closer to nature combine to produce the sharp and 32

sustained increases in farm prices in recent years. 33

34

13

The significance of natural beauty as a motive for investment in buying farms in remote rural areas is 1

very important when considering the impact of shale gas mining activities on agriculture. Although 2

not directly linked to agricultural production, it highlights the important link to other chapters of this 3

study, especially Chapters 11, 13, and 14. 4

8.5.3.3 Farm management practices 5

In seeking greater stability and profitability for their small stock farming enterprises, farmers have 6

over the years adopted and implemented new practices, some of which have resulted in certain long-7

term trends that have been detrimental to the environment and small-stock industry as a whole. On the 8

other hand the State, by developing and propagating new technologies (e.g. supplementary feeding) 9

and supplying financial aid (e.g. soil conservation and drought relief schemes) to stabilise the small-10

stock industry, has also contributed to a certain extent to the creation of some trends detrimental to the 11

environment and small-stock industry. 12

13

This has resulted in the creation of a somewhat artificial environment, which has given the small stock 14

farming community a false sense of security and has manifested in trends that are not compatible with 15

sustaining the natural environment. As a result of low product income, high input costs and interest 16

rates as well as the present disaster drought, farmers in this area today face the problem that their 17

farms cannot produce a high enough net income to survive. At present, about two- thirds of the 18

farmers in the study area have a negative net income and in the absence of financial aid they will be 19

facing bankruptcy in the near future. This will eventually lead to a further depopulation of farmers in 20

the rural areas, resulting in major socio-economic problems (Vorster, 1994). The tangible perils of this 21

situation have caused many farmers to adopt game farming (see next section for a discussion in this 22

regard), to add value to livestock products, or to diversify and include other sources of income like 23

poultry or eco-tourism. 24

8.5.3.4 Game farming 25

Right of ownership lays the foundation for wild animals to become a financially viable alternative 26

land use option in South Africa. However, sweeping structural changes in the rest of the agricultural 27

sector also made a notable contribution towards the development of the local wildlife industry. South 28

Africa and especially the study area, is resource poor compared with major agriculture producing 29

regions such as Europe and the Americas. 30

31

As explained above, many commercial farmers whose operations focussed on conventional 32

agricultural enterprises face severe financial challenges. Since 1995 South African farmers have been 33

obliged to compete in a global market for agricultural products, despite having access to poorer 34

14

resources than their counterparts in other parts of Africa and on other continents. This resulted in 1

lower prices for agricultural produce whilst at the same time being exposed to the subsidised dumping 2

of agricultural surpluses from other, better endowed countries. Simultaneously, other structural and 3

environmental changes also forced farmers to re-assess their land use practices. These included 4

deregulation of the agricultural sector immediately prior to 1994, followed by a subsequent decline in 5

political power of farmers and (associated with this) the successive weakening of financial support 6

from government, the extension of labour legislation to the agricultural sector, and the land reform 7

process. Broader structural changes in the economy also increased the cost of doing business. 8

Furthermore, on-going loss of productivity and climate change have had negative effects on the 9

agricultural sector. 10

11

As a result, in the early 1990s, the pioneers of private game ranching started to explore alternative 12

land use options in the form of wildlife ranching, particularly on what are referred to as ‘marginal 13

lands’. Game ranching, initially primarily valued as a means of satisfying the personal desires of 14

landowners and their acquaintances, rapidly changed when conservation, profit and sustainability of 15

wildlife production on marginal lands become the main drivers of transformation. The result is what is 16

regarded by many as one of the greatest agricultural transformations in history. Today South Africa 17

boasts the largest privately owned wildlife industry in the world (Cloete, 2015). 18

19

The wildlife ranching industry has four pillars: breeding, hunting, ecotourism and game products 20

(Cloete, 2015). International tourism to South Africa has grown strongly since 1994, and has a strong 21

focus on nature-related tourism. This includes wildlife and ecotourism activities, 4x4 and hiking trails, 22

nature photography and corporate team building. Hunting tourism, especially biltong and trophy 23

hunting has experienced exponential growth. All of these factors have driven transformation from 24

traditional livestock farming to wildlife ranching, and make it an attractive option for farmers. 25

26

Table 8.1 below reflects the methods by which individuals have become game farm owners. It is 27

notable that over 50 % of the respondents confirmed they had converted a farm (either bought or 28

inherited) from livestock or crops to game farming. This finding has major implications for livestock 29

and crop farming in the study area. 30

31

15

Table 8.1: Methods of acquiring a game farm (Cloete, 2015): 1

Category %

Bought a livestock or crop farm and converted it into game farm 46

Bought an existing game farm 23

Bought a livestock or crop farm already partially converted to game 9

Inherit livestock and crop farm and converted it into game farm 6

Inherit livestock and crop farm already partially converted into game farm 8

Other 8

2

Although the Karoo has seen a sizeable increase in game ranching activities over the past decade, the 3

region is not especially known for wildlife production and it is the least profitable of the game 4

ranching regions in South Africa. Despite this, game ranching in the Karoo provides farmers there 5

with a financially superior option to traditional livestock practices, especially cattle. A small game 6

ranch in the Karoo (3 000 ha) has the ability to generate an estimated R 371/ha worth of economic 7

output compared to an average of R 165 for conventional livestock farming. Return on Investment 8

(ROI) will range from 2 % to 2.8 % depending on the size of the ranch 9

8.6 Agricultural sensitivity evaluation 10

8.6.1 Agricultural characteristics of the study area 11

As previously described, all forms of agricultural production and agriculture-related activities like 12

agricultural or farm tourism depend largely on the natural agricultural resources, including soil, 13

vegetation, water, climate and the topography of the area. A negative impact on any of these 14

resources will result in the loss of the agricultural production potential of the area. 15

8.6.2 The Impact System 16

Exploration and extraction of shale gas on agricultural production systems will primarily impact upon 17

the rangeland veld resource and surface- and groundwater, upon which sustained production of 18

livestock production depends (see 8.6 Agricultural Sensitivity). 19

20

Use of heavy prospecting equipment is anticipated to cause long-term damage to veld (and in some 21

cases, to soils) where it moves over the landscape. Natural landscapes can be damaged when vehicles 22

drive over them, and in arid areas the damage may take decades or longer to repair unless effective 23

remedial action is taken. The degree of damage depends on various factors, including the type of 24

vehicle, whether the vehicle is travelling straight or turning, the nature of the vegetation, and the 25

number of times the vehicle drives over the same place (Redi, 2005; Schlacher, 2008). While the 26

effect of vehicle tracks on system degradation appears not to have received adequate attention in the 27

Karoo, it has been recognised as a problem in other arid ecosystems as it is recognised that vehicles 28

16

can destabilize and compact soils, and increase water and wind erosion (Webb, 1983) In the Karoo 1

biome it has been demonstrated that various types of physical impact, including ploughing, trampling 2

by animals, and overgrazing, can lead to degradation (Keay-Bright, 2007) If such disturbances take 3

place on highly erodible soils, the effect can be the formation of ‘badlands’, which are landscapes 4

with deep, eroded gullies (Boardman, 2008). A lesser effect, but nevertheless of aesthetic and 5

ecological significance, is the formation of semi-permanent tracks in the veld. 6

7

In the absence of previous studies on the effects of vehicles on Karoo vegetation, it is difficult to 8

recommend best-management practices. Literature would suggest, however, that the most important 9

mitigation would be to reduce the amount of traffic over the veld to a minimum. Additionally, wide 10

tyres and light vehicles reduce the pressure on the ground and thus damage to vegetation and 11

compaction of topsoil. Track formation (and hence erosion potential) can be reduced by avoiding 12

repeated driving over the same ground. 13

14

During initial exploration phases there will be opportunity to monitor the effect of vehicles on Karoo 15

soils and vegetation. Monitoring should take the form of describing traversed and non-traversed 16

vegetation over time. Key factors that should be monitored are vegetation composition and the 17

proportion of bare ground, and these should preferably take place in permanent quadrats with backup 18

photographic monitoring. 19

20

Construction of roads for the installation of other infrastructure for gas extraction and transportation 21

of inputs, outputs and waste will fragment the agricultural landscape, remove significant amounts of 22

land from production and render even larger areas unproductive through other effects, advance soil 23

erosion and create opportunities for invasive species to colonise disturbed areas. 24

25

Water will be required for the hydraulic fracturing process, and will have to be transported to the sites 26

from source (the latter may well be outside the Karoo, because the Karoo is generally water stressed). 27

Large volumes of water will thus have to be transported by road. 28

29

The zones in which the hydraulic fracturing will take place are likely to be so far down in the rock 30

strata as to render the danger of pollution of ground water used for agriculture relatively insignificant. 31

A proportion of the water that is used will be permanently lost, but what is returned or delivered to the 32

surface will comprise both flowback (injected water contaminated with toxic fracking fluids ejected 33

from the well in the days immediately following fracking) and produced water (a mixture of the 34

originally injected water contaminated with toxic fracking fluids and so-called formation water, which 35

is brackish water from the targeted shale). Indications from international experience are that between 36

15-80 % of the water will be returned to the surface, where it will have to be contained before 37

17

disposal or reuse, and leakages and pollution of surface and shallow ground water will be a threat to 1

agricultural production. If ingredients similar to those that have been used elsewhere are utilised, the 2

sites of containment dams may be rendered permanently contaminated by toxins, carcinogens and 3

salts. 4

5

Fire is unusual in the Karoo because a) it is not a standard veld management practice and b) fuel loads 6

are usually too low to allow it. However, veld fires do occasionally burn in the Karoo, particularly 7

during periods of high rainfall, and are most frequently caused by lightning or accidentally by humans 8

(J. C. O. du Toit, O’Connor, T.G. & van den Berg, L., 2015). Fires pose a risk to human and animal 9

life, and to infrastructure such as buildings and fences. Additionally, fires can destroy vegetation that 10

would otherwise have been available as grazing. Longer-term effects include changes in species 11

composition (notably the eradication of fire-intolerant shrub species), often resulting in a temporary 12

change in vegetation structure from dwarf-shrubland to arid sparse grassland (J. C. O. du Toit, van 13

den Berg, L. & O’Connor, T.G., 2014). This effect is strongly exacerbated by grazing by livestock 14

following the fire (J. C. O. du Toit, O’Connor, T.G. & van den Berg, L., 2015), and veld should 15

accordingly be rested for several years (probably between three and five) following a fire. 16

17

Usually, a naked flame is needed to ignite a veld fire. However, if the fuel is suitably dry then sparks 18

or embers will suffice (Cheney, 2008). Sparks and embers may be emitted by machinery, tools, 19

vehicles, cooking fires, and cigarettes, and there are recorded examples of these having caused veld 20

fires in the Karoo (Cheney, 2008; J. C. O. du Toit, O’Connor, T.G. & van den Berg, L., 2015; J. C. O. 21

du Toit, van den Berg, L. & O’Connor, T.G., 2014). 22

23

It is anticipated that the increased activity of people and machinery in the event of prospecting or 24

drilling for gas will lead to an increased likelihood of fires in the Karoo, particularly during dry 25

weather and if fuel loads are high. Although fracking poses a risk of increased incidence of fire in the 26

Karoo, appropriate mitigation measures, including training on how to avoid igniting fires and how to 27

extinguish fires, and the provision of equipment to immediately extinguish fires should one ignite, 28

should reduce the risk of fire significantly. Should a fire be ignited during the process of prospecting 29

or drilling for shale gas, farmers or landowners should be compensated for the destruction of property, 30

including grazing resources and the loss of production from rested veld. 31

32

Influx of skilled workers during the exploration and extraction phases will create limited market 33

opportunities for agricultural products. Security considerations will, in all likelihood, oblige farmers 34

to remove livestock from the areas surrounding gas extraction sites. Gas extraction will create limited 35

employment opportunities for local populations, which will impact on labour availability. 36

18

8.6.3 Agricultural Sensitivity 1

To determine the sensitivity of agriculture within the study area to the potential impacts of shale gas 2

activities, an agricultural sensitivity index was developed (Lindeque, 2016). This index considered 3

the integration of different data layers such as climate, soil, natural vegetation and cultivated fields. 4

Each of the Agricultural Sensitivity Index Input factors (see Table 8.2) was mapped on a quaternary 5

catchment scale and data sets were classified using sensitivity values between 1 and 4 (4 being the 6

most sensitive to potential impacts by shale gas activities). These values were equally weighted when 7

added to a single agricultural sensitivity rating. 8

Table 8.2: Description of factors contributing towards agricultural sensitivity index 9

Agricultural Sensitivity

Index Input factors Description

Soil, Climate & Terrain

(combination of factors

provides Land Capability

Classes)

The newly 2016 refined national land capability data set was used. This data set

was derived on a 1:50 000 scale and based on an evaluation of the land capability

for the area concerned for possible agricultural production. It does not take any

crop suitability into consideration but focuses on the capability of the area

concerned pertaining to soil, climate and terrain capability.

The national land capability evaluation is classified into 15 land capability classes

with 15 being the highest (Very High land capability evaluation rating) and 1

being the lowest (Very Low land capability evaluation rating).

The study area’s highest land capability classification is 10. The sensitivity index

was therefore based on an evaluation of the range of applicable land capability

evaluation classes (1 – 10) and not on the complete national land capability

evaluation classification range of classes.

The dominant (majority value) per Quaternary Catchment was used to determine

the applicable Land Capability Evaluation Sensitivity Index value for the

catchment. The higher the land capability score (10), the better for agricultural

production, and the higher the sensitivity value.

Natural vegetation

(referred to as Grazing

Land)

The newly derived grazing capacity potential for South Africa was used as input

data set to determine the potential for the study area pertaining to grazing. This

data set is to replace the 1993 Grazing Capacity Regulation under the

Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act, 43 of 1983. The long-term national

grazing potential dataset is a combination of veld condition, vegetation types and

biomass production.

The range of Grazing capacity potential values for the study area ranges from 2.5

Ha/LSU – 140 Ha/LSU. The dominant (majority value) per Quaternary

Catchment was used to determine the applicable Grazing Capacity Sensitivity

Index value for the catchment. The lower the grazing capacity figure (2.5

Ha/LSU), the better the area is for agricultural production, therefor these

catchments will receive a higher sensitivity score.

Surface water (River

Sensitivity Index as well

as Dams Sensitivity

Index)

Surface water is represented by the occurrence of the water source within the

Quaternary Catchment that includes rivers, streams and open water (dams).

The latest available river data set obtained from the Department of Water and

Sanitation was used as the input data set. The total length of the river, in

19

Agricultural Sensitivity

Index Input factors Description

kilometre, within the Quaternary Catchment was used as basis for the calculation

of the range within the complete study area, which was again then further

reclassified into the 4-tier River Sensitivity Index. The more surface water present

in a catchment, the more sensitive the area towards shale gas fracking activities.

As is the case with boreholes, data relating to the actual yield of water for

agricultural purposes extracted from the river concerned (as well as the volume of

available water and data relating to the sustainability of the river for the supply of

water) would have greatly assisted in conducting a more accurate and in-depth

evaluation of the availability of water as well as use within the study area per

Quaternary Catchment.

Ground water (Borehole

Sensitivity Index)

The 2009 National Borehole data set obtained from the then Department of Water

Affairs and Forestry (DWAF) was used as the input data set. It is acknowledged

that this data set is not the latest version and that many boreholes may have been

omitted or may no longer be in use, and that new boreholes may have been drilled

since the dataset was assembled, but it was the only data set that was available for

use at the time of this evaluation. In addition the actual yield of the boreholes was

not available. This would have served as a significant additional determining

factor in the evaluation of the available water for farming practices, and would

have assisted us to make a more accurate assessment pertaining to this aspect. It is

recommended that should a later version of this data set with supporting yield

information be made available to us, it be used for further analysis.

The total number of boreholes per Quaternary Catchment was calculated,

whereafter the range obtained was again reclassified into the 4-tier Borehole

Sensitivity Index. As a result of the application of this methodology, the more

boreholes are present in an area, the more sensitive that area is for negative

impacts from shale gas activities.

Cultivated Fields The 2015 release of the national Field Crop Boundary data set per province was

used as input data set. This data set demarcates all cultivated areas in South Africa

and is done on a 1:10 000 scale using SPOT satellite imagery, as well as the latest

available aerial photography.

The total area, in hectares, used for cultivation (irrespective whether it is rainfed or

irrigated) was calculated as a percentage of the total Quaternary Catchment to

determine the range within the study area, whereafter these areas were reclassified

into the 4-tier Agricultural Cultivation Sensitivity Index.

The correlation between land capability and cultivated fields was very good.

However, it should be noted that cultivation on lower capability areas is due to the

availability of water for irrigation purposes. Cultivated areas, especially in the

semi-arid parts of the study area, are very important for food and fodder

production. The more hectares of cultivated land occur in a catchment, the more

sensitive the area for negative impacts due to fracking operations.

20

1

2

Figure 8.2: Land capability sensitivity index value per Quaternary Catchment 3

21

1

2

Figure 8.3: Grazing land sensitivity index 3

22

1

Figure 8.2: Rivers sensitivity index per quaternary catchment 2

23

1

Figure 8.3: Dams sensitivity index 2

24

1

Figure 8.4: Borehole sensitivity index value 2

25

1

Figure 8.5: Agricultural cultivation sensitivity index value per quaternary catchment 2

26

The potential maximum value for the agricultural sensitivity index is 24 (from 6 input datasets with 4 1

levels each). The range obtained for the agricultural sensitivity for the study area was between 6 and 2

16. Due to the fact that the land capability evaluation values as well as the grazing capacity values 3

were classified according to the range within the study area, it was decided to reclassify the 4

agricultural sensitivity range based on the values obtained (6 – 16) to the four tier classification of 5

agricultural sensitivity classes. 6

Table 8.3: Assignment of sensitivity classes to agricultural sensitivity index values 7

Agricultural Sensitivity Index Values: Sensitivity classification:

14 - 16 Very High

12 – 13 High

9 – 11 Moderate

6 - 8 Low

8

9

In the study area, 13.62 % of land is considered having a very high agricultural sensitivity towards 10

shale gas activities and 35.48 % a high sensitivity. The authors are of opinion that these quaternary 11

catchments should be avoided for shale gas fracking activities. The moderate and low sensitivity 12

quaternary catchments (50.9 % of the total study area), may be considered for exploration activities, 13

provided that the necessary mitigation measures are in place as will be described in later sections. 14

8.6.3.1 Potential negative impacts 15

Table 8.4 below describes the potential degree of agricultural impacts in relation to their location, 16

extent, time scale and overall intensity for the four scenarios. 17

18

The main agricultural impact of shale gas activities on agriculture will be the intrusion of industrial 19

and mining type of activities and facilities into the study area, altering the rural and agricultural 20

dominated character of the Karoo and affecting the natural agricultural resources base the agricultural 21

sector depend upon for future sustainable production of agricultural goods and fibre. 22

23

27

1

2

Figure 8.6: Combined agricultural index value per quaternary catchment 3

28

Table 8.4: Potential agricultural impacts 1

Agricultural impact

(Detail risk assessment in

Table 8.5)

Agricultural

Sensitivity

Index Zone

Scenario Extent Timescale Intensity

(consequence)

The intrusion of industrial

and mining type activities

and facilities into the study

area, altering the rural and

agriculturally dominated

character of the Karoo and

affecting the natural

agricultural resources base

that the agricultural sector

depends upon for future

sustainable production of

agricultural goods and

fibre.

Very High

Sensitivity

Zone

Scenario 0:

Reference Case

None None None

Scenario 1: Exploration

Only

Local Long term Severe

Scenario 2: Small Gas Local Long term Severe

Scenario 3: Big Gas Regional Long term Extreme

High Sensitivity

Zone

Scenario 0:

Reference Case

None None None


Only

Local Long term Substantial

Scenario 2: Small Gas Local Long term Severe

Scenario 3: Big Gas Regional Long term Extreme

Moderate

Sensitivity

Zone

Scenario 0:

Reference Case

None None None


Only


Scenario 2: Small Gas Local Long term Substantial

Scenario 3: Big Gas Regional Long term Severe

Low Sensitivity

Zone

Scenario 0:

Reference Case

None None None


Only


Scenario 2: Small Gas Local Long term Substantial

Scenario 3: Big Gas Regional Long term Substantial

8.7 Risk assessment 2

The risks to agricultural production in the study area are assessed in the context of four anticipated 3

scenarios: 4

5

Scenario 0: Reference Case 6

Agricultural production systems in the Karoo are relatively stable, and demand for agricultural 7

products from the region will continue to grow under virtually all future economic development 8

scenarios. The productive capacity of the rangeland has not been affected to a great degree by 9

degradation, and most rangeland is managed sustainably. A significant number of farmers have 10

adopted, or are moving to less environmentally damaging production systems. 11

12

With the exception of an area surrounding Beaufort West, water resources are adequate for sustained 13

livestock production and the associated low-density farm population. 14

15

29

Climate change projections show an increase peak and average temperatures, with some impact upon 1

livestock production. In the winter rainfall area in the far west of the designated area winters are likely 2

to become shorter and drier as a result of the predicted pole-wards shift of the rain-bearing cyclonic 3

systems. There would also be an increase in extreme events such as droughts and floods. However, 4

most of the designated area receives the majority of its rainfall in the summer and late summer. Future 5

rainfall predictions for these areas are characterised by a greater degree of uncertainty, with some 6

models indicating significant increases in overall precipitation. 7

8

Scenario 1: Exploration Only 9

In addition to the anticipated impacts of Scenario 0, the movement of heavy prospecting equipment 10

through the landscape will impact on the soil and vegetation. Seismic exploration would entail 11

traversing watercourses and other ephemeral water bodies. This will result in physical disturbance 12

such as compaction and surface disturbance within watercourses and catchments areas, which is likely 13

to diminish infiltration and increase runoff. It is likely that this will result in higher rates of runoff, 14

soil erosion and sedimentation. Impacts of this nature have been described as associated with well pad 15

and pipeline construction in shale and coal seam gas exploration and production in the USA and 16

Australia (Brantley, 2014; Cavaye, 2016). 17

18

Scenario 2: Small Gas 19

In addition to the cumulative effects from the previous two scenarios, Scenario 2 will include more 20

extensive prospecting and the construction and installation of infrastructure within designated areas. 21

Within these areas this will necessitate removal of natural vegetation and disturbance of drainage and 22

infiltration systems in the course of construction of roads, well pads, water storage facilities, 23

accommodation and other facilities. The mitigation measures required will be similar to those 24

described in Scenario 1 above, albeit on a wider scale and over a longer period of time. 25

26

Land users will incur higher management costs to maintain optimal use of their grazing resources and 27

to minimise losses from wandering of flocks, injury, contamination or theft with the presence of 28

contaminated wastewater reservoirs on their land and in the face of on-going movement of people and 29

equipment through the landscape (Cavaye, 2016). 30

31

Scenario 3: Big Gas 32

Should the reserves of shale gas prove to be bounteous and should the market price provide sufficient 33

economic motivation and justification, very extensive prospecting (with more extensive impact upon 34

the veld) will be followed by construction and installation of infrastructure over large areas of the 35

Karoo. The cumulative effects described in Scenario 2 will occur on landscape scale. Construction 36

30

roads will be more heavily used and the dangers of wastewater spillages and leakages into 1

groundwater resources will increase exponentially. 2

3

A risk assessment matrix is provided in Table 8.5 below, including risk levels ‘without’ mitigation 4

and ‘with’ mitigation. The table is based on the description of the four scenarios and the identification 5

of agricultural sensitive zones in the previous section. These are combined with the potential intensity 6

of the agricultural impacts (derived from Table 8.4), and the likelihood (probability) of the impact 7

occurring, to provide an overall risk evaluation. 8

Table 8.5: Risk assessment matrix 9

Without mitigation With mitigation

Impact

Agricultural

sensitivity

zone

Scenario Consequence Likeli-

hood Risk Consequence

Likeli-

hood Risk

The intrusion of

industrial and mining

type of activities and

facilities into the

study area, altering

the rural and

agricultural

dominated character

of the Karoo and

affecting the natural

agricultural resources

base the agricultural

sector depend upon

for future sustainable

production of

agricultural goods

and fibre.

Very high

agricultural

sensitivity

Scenario

0 None Likely Low None

Very

Likely Very Low

Scenario

1 Severe

Very

Likely High Substantial

Very

Likely Moderate

Scenario

2 Severe

Very

Likely Very High Severe

Very

Likely High

Scenario

3 Extreme

Very

Likely Very High Extreme

Very

Likely Very High

High

agricultural

sensitivity

Scenario

0 None Likely Very Low None Likely Very Low

Scenario

1 Substantial

Very


Very

Likely Moderate

Scenario

2 Severe

Very


Very

Likely High

Scenario

3 Extreme

Very

Likely Very High Severe

Very

Likely Very High

Moderate

agricultural

sensitivity

Scenario


Scenario

1 Substantial Likely Low Substantial

Very

Likely Low

Scenario

2 Substantial

Very

Likely Moderate Substantial

Very

Likely Low

Scenario

3 Severe

Very

Likely High Severe

Very

Likely High

Low

agricultural

sensitivity

Scenario


Scenario

1 Substantial Likely Low Substantial

Very

Likely Low

Scenario

2 Substantial Likely Moderate Substantial

Very

Likely Low

Scenario

3 Substantial

Very

Likely High Severe

Very

Likely High

10

31

8.8 Management of potential agricultural impacts 1

8.8.1 Potential Positive Impacts 2

Shale gas exploration and development offers a number of potential positive impacts on the 3

agricultural sector: 4

5

Increased local demand for agricultural outputs: The anticipated influx of staff employed by shale 6

gas exploration and exploitation operators and the attendant increase in local economic activity can be 7

expected to stimulate demand for agricultural produce. It is also anticipated that demand for farm-stay 8

Bed and Breakfast accommodation in the area will increase in response to the need for skilled 9

technicians, management personnel and specialist service providers to have access to suitable 10

overnight accommodation in the vicinity of shale gas operations. 11

12

Improved infrastructure: Shale gas exploration and exploitation will require the construction of 13

improved road access to otherwise remote areas of the study area. This will potentially improve 14

access to these areas for land users, and reduce wear and tear of their vehicles. It will be important 15

that contractual provision is made to maintain and improve such infrastructure over time. Increased 16

short-term demand for telecommunication services will stimulate mobile network operators to 17

improve coverage in the longer term by investing in improved hardware or construction of additional 18

transmission stations. 19

20

Job creation potential and employment opportunities: Although likely to be limited in terms of 21

scope and duration, it is anticipated that shale gas exploration and exploitation activities will create 22

some spin-off employment opportunities in service industries, which could benefit agricultural 23

communities and their dependents. 24

25

Supplementary sources of on-farm income: Farmers will have a range of opportunities to enhance 26

their incomes by leasing parts of their land or land-based resources (water, gravel for roads, etc.) to 27

shale gas exploration and exploitation operations. Opportunities may also arise for landowners to sell 28

areas of land to operators at prices higher than current market prices. 29

30

Veld improvement through extended resting periods: Should shale gas operators seek to lease land 31

on which extractive operations are to take place, opportunity will be created for veld improvement 32

through extended resting periods. 33

34

32

Opportunity to utilise water from exploration and fracking activities: On condition that it does not 1

contain unacceptably high levels of salts, radioactivity or toxic chemicals, water used for, or produced 2

by fracking activities could be utilised in agricultural operations for purposes such as limited 3

irrigation of fodder crops. 4

5

Opportunity for water harvesting techniques: Because erosion is prevalent in the Karoo, farm and 6

municipal dams contain large sediment loads, drastically reducing their capacity to contain water and 7

their value from the perspective of water provision potential. Nevertheless, their capacity for reducing 8

sediment runoff into larger rivers is significant. Currently the capacity of many farm dams has been 9

reduced to virtually zero by sediment. If breached, they are likely to release their trappings 10

downstream and result in the development of erosion gullies (Boardman, 2008). By 2009 the dam that 11

supplies Graaff-Reinet with water had a sediment load of approximately 50 million cubic meters, and 12

a remaining water capacity of only 30 million cubic meters. Shale gas exploration and exploitation 13

offers opportunities for off-sets to be created whereby operators could enlarge or de-silt dams on 14

farms thereby increasing the storage capacity for run-off water. Where fracking companies are willing 15

to dredge dams this could provide adequate water for fracking activities and have the very positive 16

spinoff of significantly increasing surface water availability in the Karoo. 17

8.8.2 Management strategies 18

Strategies for the management of potential negative impacts can be divided into mitigation, avoidance 19

and offsets. 20

Mitigation 21

Mitigation will involve reducing the effects of the shale gas activities on agricultural receptors 22

through all project phases. These receptors include the farming community, the economic viability of 23

farming operations as well as the biophysical components of agriculture such as soil and water. 24

Avoidance 25

This is a preventative approach relying on the planning phase to identify areas of high sensitivity to 26

agricultural impacts and to avoid it. In the case of shale gas exploration and production, the siting of 27

wells is determined by geological and economic considerations, limiting the potential for avoidance. 28

Avoidance is possible at the project scale where measures can be taken to avoid quaternary 29

catchments with very high and high agricultural sensitive index values. 30

Offsets 31

Offsets is a strategy of acknowledging and quantifying irreparable damage to natural resources and/or 32

loss of livelihood and to replacing it with areas or projects of similar or better value elsewhere. 33

33

8.8.2.1 Mitigation measures 1

In the absence of exploration or extraction: Mitigation of anticipated climatic change in the Study 2

Area should include interventions to ensure that vegetation in catchment areas and stream- and 3

riverbeds is conserved so as to increase infiltration capacity of the soil and slow runoff waters. 4

Compacted soil surfaces should be rehabilitated to restore vegetative cover. The construction 5

standards for roads, railroads, pipelines, telephone and transmission lines should be revised to 6

accommodate higher levels of peak run-off and associated sedimentation. Biodiversity loss and veld 7

degradation from long-term selective grazing on farms should be addressed via increased investment 8

in supporting biodiversity stewardship, including in situ conservation of biodiversity and the 9

introduction and large-scale adoption of rangeland ‘best management practices’ suitable for this area. 10

11

During exploration: Mitigation would require that heavy prospecting equipment should not 12

transgress main water courses and pans, and be excluded from areas subject to hydrological extremes 13

of floods and droughts. Mitigation will also require active rehabilitation of compacted or otherwise 14

disturbed surfaces of watercourses, pans and catchment areas that have been affected by the 15

movement of prospecting equipment. Without active rehabilitation, disturbed surfaces in catchment 16

areas that have lost their vegetative cover and become compacted might not recover. Because Karoo 17

veld is very slow to regenerate after disturbance and some species do not easily recruit or recolonize, 18

it may be necessary to re-seed disturbed areas (Esler, Milton, & Dean, 2006). Australian research 19

shows the timing of remediation (minimising delays, especially during drought) is critical as it can 20

lead to surrounding areas remaining out of production also (Cavaye et al 2016). 21

22

The movement of heavy prospecting equipment across the landscape is likely to distribute the seeds of 23

undesirable plants between and within agricultural properties. Similar impacts will be experienced in 24

the course of regular maintenance operations. Seeds may be collected on the moving parts of the 25

machinery that are in contact with the soil surface either en-route to the prospecting site or during the 26

traversing process. The areas that will be at most risk of alien plant invasion are the roads to the well 27

pads, and the disturbed areas around the well pads. Without mitigation there is a high likelihood of the 28

spread of invasive plants. Mitigation would need to include cleaning and sanitisation of the parts of 29

prospecting machinery before it enters a property, and after it has been thorough an area infested with 30

invasive plants. Aftercare would require that prospecting sites were monitored and managed to control 31

new infestations of invasive plants for a period of approximately 5 years after prospecting. 32

33

During operations: Mitigation of these threats could include rental of the farmers' land by the gas 34

extractor at a rate linked to the current livestock-based financial returns, thus allowing farmers to 35

destock those areas. Providing farmers with the resources to increase their on-farm security and 36

34

strengthen their existing farmer security networks would also mitigate this problem. The ground water 1

resources upon which agriculture in the Karoo is entirely dependent is vulnerable to pollution by 2

leakage of toxic hydraulic fracturing fluids (Davenport, 2012; Pichtel, 2016; Sneegas, 2016). Surface 3

water resources within the extraction zone will be at risk from disturbances of catchment areas and 4

pollution for leakage of toxic fluids used for hydraulic fracturing (Atangana & van Tonder, 2014; 5

Davenport, 2012; Perry, 2012). Ground-to-surface water contamination may take place as a result of 6

the degradation of well seals and liners over relatively long periods of time (Chapter 5). Mitigation 7

could include avoidance of areas where surface-groundwater linkages are likely, enforced long-term 8

and on-going monitoring and maintenance of wells and easements and treatment of wastewater to 9

render it suitable for agricultural use and even human consumption (Chapter 5) (Pichtel, 2016). 10

11

Despite assurances from prospecting companies such as Shell™ that they do not intend to utilise 12

ground water resources for hydraulic fracturing, the increased populations that will enter the area to 13

undertake the prospecting and gas extraction will undoubtedly add to water use for personal 14

consumption, sanitation and other purposes. This may well lead to over-exploitation of scarce ground 15

water resources in some areas. Mitigation should include assessment of available resources for 16

agricultural purposes before allowing use of these resources for other purposes, trucking in water if 17

need be and also employing minimum water usage technologies on site. If farming land is rented by 18

gas extraction companies for the duration of the extraction period, this would be an effective 19

mitigation of this potential problem. In the Australian experience, a major impact of gas personnel on 20

farms has been time required by farmers to meet and communicate with staff and manage gas impacts 21

on their farms (Cavaye et al. 2016). 22

23

The presence of personnel of gas extraction companies and other service providers on sites on farms 24

for prolonged periods could lead to unwanted genetic material being introduced into the flocks and 25

herds of land users. This could be mitigated by either the land rental option proposed above, or a ban 26

on any livestock being brought into the area or kept by personnel of gas extraction companies and 27

other service providers. 28

29

During rehabilitation and post closure: Mitigation measures along the lines described above will be 30

required on a landscape level, and over the entire lifecycle of the gas extraction process, including 31

closure and subsequent rehabilitation of well pad areas. 32

33

Table 8.6 below discusses the agricultural impacts in more detail and provides options for mitigation 34

of these impacts. 35

35

Table 8.6: Possible agricultural impacts and options for mitigation 1

Scenario Possible agricultural impact Options for mitigation of impacts

Scenario 0: Reference Case Status quo Not applicable

Scenario 1: Exploration Only Localized soil degradation in the form of compaction, soil

pollution and soil erosion

Introduce soil conservation measures and structures as

soon as possible.

Revegetation with adapted local species.

Localized vegetation degradation in the form of cleared

vegetation strips, the loss of productive potential and the

possibility of soil erosion and the introduction of weeds

and invasive species

Retain scrubs and trees where possible.


Control weeds and invader plants, mechanical,

herbicides and biological control, depended on

sensitivity of area.

Careful planning of access roads and infrastructure.

Rather improve existing roads than build new ones.

Localized and limited degradation of surface water

resources, mainly due to obstacles to water flow and

possible point source pollution (mostly accidental events)

Planning to avoid activities near water bodies

Cleaning up operations immediately after a spill or

pollution event

Visual pollution having an impact on game ranching and

eco-tourism activities, littering from construction sites

and accommodation camps.

Include litter control and education in the EMP

Limited influx of people (outsiders) into the area will

decrease safety and security on farms (farm attacks and

livestock theft)

Implement a farm visit protocol

Improve security in area, both formally through police

service and private security firms and informally

through community policing and patrols.

Scenario 2: Small Gas Increased soil degradation in the form of compaction, soil

pollution and soil erosion.

Implement soil conservation measures and structures.

Re-shaping and revegetation with adapted local species.

Increased vegetation degradation in the form of cleared

vegetation strips, the loss of productive potential of land

and the possibility of soil erosion and the introduction of

weeds and invasive species

Retain scrubs and trees where possible.






Rather improve existing roads than building new ones.

36


Increased possibility of degradation of surface and

groundwater quality due to wastewater from the fracking

process (flowback) and pollution through spills, leakages

and accidents.


Deep well injection


pollution event

Increased demand on available water sources leading to a

decrease in water quantity (availability) from both surface

and groundwater sources for agricultural activities.

Water harvesting measures

Re-use of waste water

Import water from outside study area

Increased traffic, noise and dust during the construction

phase

Cluster target areas where possible, upgrade existing

roads, law enforcement on roads to avoid speeding and

accidents

Fragmentation and industrialisation of the landscape,

wilderness and rural areas. Fragmentation of farms and

land management units/sections on specific farms

Confine wellpads to carefully selected areas with low

agricultural sensitivity

Effect on the rural agricultural character of the study area

by shale gas activities

Minimise footprint of wellpads as far as possible within

the production block

Localised effect of wellpads on views from farmsteads,

possibly affecting property values

Consider setbacks from farmsteads

Create shelterbelts for visual screening

Loss of productive land (localised) through changes in

land use and fragmentation of the landscape



Changes in social fabric of community, community values

and the possibility of conflict between those farmers for

and those farmers against shale gas fracking (or those

benefiting from shale gas activities and those not

benefiting at all).

Consider alternative, renewable energy sources like

wind and solar.

Consider a more representative compensation system

Consider payment for use and loss of ecosystem

services by mining/fracking companies

Farmers unhappy with impacts of shale gas operations sell

their land - loss of traditional knowledge and experience

Consider alternative, more environmental friendly

“green” energy sources

Loss of privacy and control over property with an

increase in crime, damage to property, stock theft and

possible farm attacks




through community policing and patrol.

37


Scenario 3: Big Gas Increased soil degradation in the form of compaction, soil

pollution and soil erosion

Implement soil conservation measures and structures.

Re-shaping and revegetation with adapted local species.

Increased vegetation degradation in the form of cleared

vegetation strips, the loss of productive potential of land

and the possibility of soil erosion and the introduction of

weeds and invasive species

Retain scrubs and trees where possible






Rather improve existing roads than building new ones.

Increased possibility of degradation of surface and

groundwater quality due to waste water from the fracking

process (flowback) and pollution through spills, leakages

and accidents.

Increased demand on available water sources leading to a

decrease in water quantity (availability) from both surface

and groundwater sources for agricultural activities.


Deep well injection


pollution event

Water harvesting measures

Re-use of waste water

Import water from outside study area

Increased traffic, noise and dust during the construction

phase

Cluster target areas where possible, upgrade existing

roads, law enforcement on roads to avoid speeding and

accidents

Widespread fragmentation and industrialisation of the

landscape, wilderness and rural areas. Fragmentation of

farms and land management units/sections on specific

farms by wellpads, pipelines and access roads.

Confine wellpads and production blocks to carefully

selected areas with low agricultural sensitivity

Minimise footprint of wellpads as far as possible within

the production block

District-wide or regional effect on the rural agricultural

character of the study area by shale gas activities

Consider setbacks from farmsteads

Create shelterbelts for visual screening

Wildlife and rural corridors as possible offset

Diminished recreation amenity and agri- and eco-tourism

attraction, including the environments of private game

farms and lodges



Shelterbelts for visual screening

General effect of wellpads on views from farmsteads, Consider alternative, renewable energy sources like

38


possibly affecting property values wind and solar

Avoid areas with very high and high agricultural

sensitivity index score

Loss of productive land (localised) through changes in

land use and fragmentation of the landscape, especially

within production blocks

Consider a more representative compensation system

Consider payment for use and loss of ecosystem

services by mining/fracking companies

Changes in social fabric of community, community values

and the possibility of conflict between those farmers for

and those farmers against shale gas fracking (or those

benefiting from shale gas activities and those not

benefiting at all).

Consider alternative, more environmental friendly

“green” energy sources

More farmers unhappy with shale gas operations, sell

their land, loss of traditional knowledge and experience,

impact on property values

Consider alternative, renewable energy sources like

wind and solar.

Loss of privacy and control over property with an

increase in crime, damage to property, stock theft and

possible farm attacks




through community policing and patrol.

1

39

8.8.2.2 Offsets 1

A possible offset for SGD in the Karoo would be the extension of existing game farms and the 2

incorporation of these farms into wilderness or scenic rural corridors, linking with existing protected 3

areas. The involvement of the Stewardship program could be of great benefit to manage agricultural 4

resources in a sustainable way, while protecting the unique biodiversity of the study area. 5

6

Another possible offset could be to protect important catchments, especially rivers and streams of 7

importance for water supply for humans, animals and also important agricultural industries. Typical 8

these catchments will have large storage dams or reservoirs and these areas have also a fair amount of 9

irrigation areas. These values have all been considered in the sensitivity map developed for the 10

purposes of this assessment. 11

8.8.3 Limits of acceptable change 12

Natural agricultural resources in South Africa are protected by the CARA, Act 43 of 1983. The 13

objective of this legislation is to protect and control the use of natural agricultural resources through 14

regulations controlling the use of natural veld, water sources, wetlands and the use and protection of 15

cultivated fields and irrigated areas. Other, related legislation control water pollution, air pollution or 16

noise. Another important piece of legislation is the Subdivision of Agricultural land, Act 70 of 1970. 17

This legislation will have a direct impact on the fragmentation of agricultural land. 18

19

The tipping point for the limit of acceptable change would be related to adhering to CARA legislation 20

and other related legislation discussed earlier in this chapter, like NEMA, Subdivision of Agricultural 21

land, Water Act to name a few. Setbacks and exclusion zones would to some degree define levels of 22

acceptable change. A number of these are listed in Table 8.7. 23

Table 8.7: Potential exclusion zones for shale gas activity 24

Agricultural resource Exclusion zone

Terrain Restricting development on steep slopes (NEMA legislation)

Major rivers and water bodies Restrictions within 500m of water courses and 1 km of wetlands (Regulation

for Petroleum Exploration and Production, 2015)

Human settlements Provisions included in local authority planning documents (Integrated

Development Plans, Municipal Zoning Schemes and Overlay Schemes)

25

40

8.9 Conclusion and recommendations 1

We conclude that shale gas exploration and extraction is likely to have a wide range of potential 2

impacts on the agricultural production systems of the study area. Although many of these are likely to 3

be of a negative nature, opportunities do exist for the activities and impacts of these processes to 4

contribute to the improvement of the lives of the people of the area. 5

Realising net positive benefits for all members of the farming communities of the area will require 6

careful planning, strict regulation and skilful mediation of the interactions between land-based 7

communities and gas exploitation companies. The international experience demonstrates that the 8

interventions of petro-chemical companies in landscapes have frequently caused environmental and 9

social damage and disruption, and set in train events that have had negative impacts that are of a 10

lasting nature. Financial contributions by the relevant companies to mitigate these costs have likewise 11

frequently been inadequate. If such costs are externalised and must be borne by local populations, 12

governments and their citizens, the future of communities and nations will be ransomed for relatively 13

short-term benefit. 14

The farming communities of the study area have learned over many generations how to live in a 15

water-scarce environment, and to sustainably produce unique and highly valued agricultural outputs. 16

This production is entirely reliant on groundwater resources, and it is therefore indisputable that if 17

groundwater resources are polluted or abnormally depleted, the entire agricultural system in this semi-18

arid area will collapse. 19

Many of the physical impacts of shale gas exploration and exploitation can be mitigated with a 20

combination of careful planning to meet stringent environmental and social standards, vigilant 21

management of operations, active enforcement of laws, regulations and standards and engagement of 22

local stakeholders in seeking appropriate solutions to perceived challenges and threats. Nevertheless, 23

shale gas exploration and extraction will change the nature and quality of many of the physical and 24

social conditions upon which the agricultural productivity and the livelihoods of agriculturally-25

dependent communities are grounded. 26

Globally, agricultural resources are recognised as a finite resource that is rapidly shrinking due to land 27

transformation and degradation. As this resource is crucial to meeting the needs of an exponentially 28

expanding human population, its conservation should be regarded as a priority higher than that of 29

short-term energy benefits of gas extraction. 30

Investment in land in the study area is coupled with the unspoiled natural beauty of the region, and its 31

demonstrated potential to attract nature, farm and game tourists. Intimately linked to this is the 32

farming lifestyle of the region, which motivates urban-based investors to envisage a higher quality of 33

life for themselves and their families should they relocate there and to transfer wealth back from 34

urban centres of accumulation to these rural landscapes. Sustaining the value of such investment, and 35

ensuring that it is able to continue to generate further returns and create benefits for the people of the 36

study area is dependent on retaining the natural beauty of the environment. If SGD is perceived as 37

degrading or destroying this natural beauty, the fast-growing game farming sector and the associated 38

agri-tourism and eco-tourism sectors will all be negatively impacted. Should this happen, local 39

populations will inevitably be disrupted, and agricultural skills will probably be eroded or 40

permanently lost. 41

41

In conclusion, notwithstanding the short-term gains that may be realised from shale gas production in 1

the study area, it will be of crucial economic and social importance to ensure that the long-term future 2

of the region and its peoples is firmly grounded upon diverse and sustainable agricultural land use. 3

8.10 Reference list 4

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Abad, J.D. and Simon, . (2014). Water resource impacts during unconventional shale gas 11

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Cavaye, J., Kelly, L., Martin, M., Cameron, D., Muriuki, G., Rillorta-Goloran, T., and Baldwin, S. 14

(2016). The Impacts of Coal Seam Gas Development on Agricultural Production and 15

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Town: ABSA, CTP Printers. 19

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