chapter 7 goods movement - sd freight rail
TRANSCRIPT
Chapter 7
GOODS MOVEMENT
199
Chapter 7
GOODS MOVEMENT
BACKGROUND
Since the passage of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) in1991, government investment policy has facilitated the seamless flow of freight acrosstransportation systems. Traditionally, federal, state, and local governments had madecapital investments along modal lines.
The 1998 Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21) acknowledges thecrucial role the transportation system plays in the nation�s economic competitiveness.TEA-21 promotes economic growth and trade through various programs:
! Border Crossings and Trade Corridors: $700 million to support trade and improvesecurity at borders and to design and construct corridors of national significance.
! Intermodalism: Promotes balanced, integrated, and efficient transportation toadvance America�s economic competitiveness. Examples include funding forprojects to connect highways with intermodal transportation facilities.
! Innovative Financing: Creates a $530 million credit assistance program to leverage$10.6 billion for construction projects. Gives states and others greater flexibility inmeeting the matching requirements for federal grants.
! Freight Involvement: Ensures that freight shippers can participate in themetropolitan and statewide transportation planning processes, so that their interestswill be properly considered.
! Bureau of Transportation Statistics: $186 million to support such activities ascommodity flow studies and analyses of transportation�s role in supporting trade.
The movement of goods in the San Diego region involves the systems of rail, ports andshipping, air cargo, and trucks. The efficiency and integration of these affect noise,air quality, land use, congestion, and safety. In an increasingly global economy, keepingtransportation efficient is vital to the San Diego region�s competitiveness.
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Historical Data
The principal modes of freight transportation within California can be illustratedbased on several measures, such as the value of cargo, the weight of goods hauled,or ton-miles.1 Using any of these three measures, trucking is the dominant freight choice.
Two-thirds of the value of cargo originating in California is transported by truck.Trucking�s share represents 76 percent when shipments are measured in terms of theoverall weight originating in California.
However, when rated based on ton-miles, trucking�s share of shipments amounts to55 percent. Rail and other modes individually transport 14 percent of the shipmentsoriginating in the state.
Figures 7-1 through 7-3 show California�s share by mode based on value, weight, andton-miles of shipments originating in the state.
Figure 7-1SHIPMENTS ORIGINATING IN CALIFORNIA
MODES OF TRANSPORTATION1
1 Percent of valueSource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of the Census, 1992 Census of Transportation,Communications, and Utilities; 1993 Commodity Flow Survey.
1 Ton-miles. The weight times the mileage for a shipment. The respondents reported shipment weight in
pounds. Mileage was calculated as the distance between the shipment origin and destination zip codes.Aggregated pound-miles were converted to ton-miles.
Pipeline - 2.7%Rail - 1.7%Air - 4.7%
Other - 8.1%Truck
Intermodal - 0.8%
Private & For-Hire Truck - 67.4%
Parcel, U.S. PostalService, Courier - 14.2%
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Figure 7-2SHIPMENTS ORIGINATING IN CALIFORNIA
MODES OF TRANSPORTATION1
1 Percent of tonsSource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of the Census, 1992 Census of Transportation,Communications, and Utilities; 1993 Commodity Flow Survey.
Figure 7-3SHIPMENTS ORIGINATING IN CALIFORNIA
MODES OF TRANSPORTATION1
1 Percent of ton-milesSource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of the Census, 1992 Census of Transportation,Communications, and Utilities; 1993 Commodity Flow Survey.
Truck Intermodal -
0.2%
Parcel, U.S. Postal Service, Courier - 0.4%
Other - 7.8%
Air - 0.1%Rail - 2.2%
Pipeline - 14.3%
Private & For-Hire Truck - 74.7%
Truck Intermodal -
2.7%
Parcel, U.S. Postal Service, Courier - 2.0% Other - 14.0% Pipeline - 11.0%
Rail - 14.3%
Air - 0.9%
Private & For-Hire Truck - 54.9%
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Trucking
California ranks second in the nation in ton-miles of truck shipments, trailing the Stateof Texas. California�s shipments by truck from manufacturing, mining, farming, andwholesale establishments accounted for 54,756 million of ton-miles in 1993. In terms ofthe dollar value of truck shipments, California ranks fifth in the United States, withcargo valued at $590.5 billion.2
As shown in Figure 7-4, approximately one-half of the ton-miles of truck shipmentsrepresent loads moving within California. Shipments to and from California account fornearly equal shares (23 percent to 24 percent). Through shipments represent only 2.5percent of the total truck shipments, measured in ton-miles.
As described in the previous section and in Figures 7-1 through 7-3, two-thirds of thevalue of shipments originating in California, nearly 76 percent of the tonnage of thoseshipments, and 55 percent of the shipments measured in ton-miles are transported bytruck. Trucking shares are likely higher for San Diego due to the limited air cargocapability and freight rail service in the region.
Figure 7-4CALIFORNIA TRUCK SHIPMENTS1
1 In ton-milesSource: U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,Truck Movements in America: Shipments from, to, within, and through States, 1997.
2 U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Truck Movements in America:
Shipments from, to, within, and through States, 1997.
Within50%
Through3% From
24%
To23%
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Rail
The Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) and the San Diego and Imperial Valley (SDIV)railroads transport rail freight in the San Diego region. Under an agreement madeas a part of the purchase of 82 miles of BNSF right-of-way within the San Diego region,BNSF maintains a freight easement over the 62 miles of coastal mainline and the 20-milebranch line between Escondido and Oceanside. The BNSF also interchanges freightwith the SDIV and with the U.S. Navy. Figure 7-5 illustrates the railroads of theSan Diego region.
BNSF freight tonnage has been estimated using the U.S. Railroad Traffic Atlas for 1997.The atlas reported that BNSF handled between 5 and 9.99 millions of gross ton-milesper mile on the line between San Diego and the Greater Los Angeles area in that year.BNSF runs approximately four freight trains per day on this route (two in eachdirection), a level which is consistent with the ton-mileage reported by the atlas.Assuming trains operate on the line at least 300 days per year and an averageof 25 cars per train, Wilbur Smith & Associates estimates that 30,000 freight cars arehandled on the line per year. This equates to 100 rail cars in the corridor per day,a relatively light volume.3
According to the Marine Terminal Master Plan, the Port of San Diego is the maingenerator of freight for BNSF in the I-5 corridor south of the greater Los Angeles area.Rail-borne commodities handled at the Port consist of soda ash and lumber for export,and import automobiles. BNSF handles no container traffic to and from San Diego byrail. Rather, BNSF hauls containers between the San Diego area and its intermodalfacility in San Bernardino.
The SDIV Railroad is a Class II Carrier or "Short-Haul" railroad. It has been the freightoperator on the San Diego & Arizona Eastern Railway since 1984.
The SDIV makes deliveries mainly to Tijuana and Tecate, Baja California, and receivesall of its freight via a rail interchange with the BNSF in downtown San Diego,near the Port of San Diego�s Tenth Avenue Marine Terminal. Because the San DiegoTrolley operates passenger service on the SD&AE�s Main Line and La Mesa branch,SDIV�s freight trains move only during the early morning hours.
By rehabilitating the existing line east of Tecate, the railroad would reconnect with theUnion Pacific Railroad in the Imperial Valley.
3 SANDAG, Goods Movement Discussion Paper #3: Estimates of Potential Traffic Diversions from I-5
Corridor, Wilbur Smith & Associates, 1999.
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Maritime Shipping
The San Diego Unified Port District (Port of San Diego) oversees and plans for thedevelopment of commerce, navigation, fisheries, and recreation within San Diego Bayand the surrounding tidelands.
The Port of San Diego is a mixed-use, multi-purpose cargo handling port. Maritimecommerce is carried out at two terminals located on the San Diego Bay. In addition,the Port oversees piers for cruise ships, visiting military, commercial fishing, sportfishing, and pleasure craft. A location map of the Port terminals is shown in Figure 7-6.
Port of San Diego�s Marine Terminals4
Built in the 1950s, the Tenth Avenue Marine Terminal is San Diego�s general cargoterminal. It supports dry bulks, such as soda ash, potash, and cement, as well as breakbulk and general cargoes, including newsprint and palletized cold storage.
The National City Marine Terminal is the newer of the two facilities and supportsmore limited types of cargoes. Automobiles and lumber are the main products handledat this facility.
These two terminals present distinct characteristics, as follows:
! The Tenth Avenue terminal has large covered storage facilities while the NationalCity terminal has extensive open storage.
! The Tenth Avenue terminal is closer to deep water than the National City terminal.
! The Tenth Avenue terminal is located at the edge of commercial development whilethe National City terminal emerges as the hub of industrial development.
Maritime business began to recover in the mid-1990s, after a decade of declining activity.Two commodities accounted for the growth in cargo tonnage between 1993 and 1998:soda ash at the Tenth Avenue terminal and automobiles at the National City terminal.This trend highlights the Port of San Diego�s success in targeted marketing and handlingof specialized commodities.
4 Port of San Diego, Marine Terminal Master Plan, 1999.
MEX
1-D
OrangeCounty Riverside County
Imperial C
ounty
Oceanside
Carlsbad
Encinitas
Del Mar
Solana Beach
Poway
SanDiego
Coronado
ImperialBeach
ChulaVista
LaMesa
ElCajon
Escondido
Vista
SanMarcos
Tijuana, B.C.
Tecate
CampoJacumba
N
LemonGrove
8
79
15
75
805
94
94
163
282
209
274
52
67
805
78
78
67
76
76
15
54
8
8
5
5
15
94
79
188
78
5
NationalCity
CampPendleton
54
Figure 7-5EXISTING FREIGHTRAIL FACILITIES
Rail Line
Major Yard Facility
11
125
56
Santee
905
125
125
0
MILES
3 6 9
E
A N
E
A N
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
206
SanDiego
Coronado
NationalCity
ImperialBeach
SanDiegoBay
North IslandNaval Air Station
NavalAmphibious
Base
Chula VistaHarbor
CoronadoCays
Bay Bridge
Point Loma
San DiegoInternational Airport
Lindbergh Field
Bell Bouy
Shelter Island
Harbor Island
Marine Corps Recruit Depot
BallastPoint
Zuniga Point
Zuniga Jetty
CoastGuard
PortAdministration
Tijuana, Mexico 8 km
Riverside 161 km
SD & AE
Phoenix571 km
ChulaVista
805
15
163
94
8
282
209
75
5
805
15
8
5
a n
B Street PierBroadway Pier11th Naval District
Headquarters
Tenth AvenueMarine Terminal
National CityMarine Terminal
5
NavalStation
SOURCE: San Diego Unified Port District, 1996
MILES
0 1/2 1
Figure 7-6PORT FACILITIES
Shipping Channel
Marine Cargo Terminal
Cruise Ship Terminal
International Airport
N
San Diego RegionMAP AREA
208
The Port of San Diego ranks fourth out of 11 ports in California in terms of revenuetons shipped. It handled 1.8 million tons of cargo in FY 1998-99 (metric revenue tons).In comparison, the Port of Long Beach processed 108 million tons and the Port ofLos Angeles handled 78 million tons, as shown in Figure 7-7.
Cargo shipped through the Port of San Diego on regularly-scheduled ocean carriershas not tracked the growth of the overall U.S. or West Coast Liner trade over the last10 years (1988-1997). While West Coast ports have captured a larger share of theU.S. liner trade, the Port of San Diego has been unable to maintain its share ofWest Coast liner trade. Table 7-1 displays these trends.
A breakdown of cargoes handled at the Port of San Diego in 1998 is shown in Table 7-2.
Any sizable increase in bulk or container freight passing through the Port of San Diegowould require an upgraded infrastructure.
Figure 7-7CALIFORNIA'S PRIMARY COMMERCIAL PORTS
TOTAL TONNAGE1 FOR 1998-1999
1 Percent of ton-milesSource: California Association of Port Authorities, 1999.
108.0
78.0
21.0
1.8 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.40
20
40
60
80
100
120
Long Beach
Los Angele
s
Oaklan
d
San D
iego
Stock
ton
Huenem
e
Humbolt
Redwood C
ity
Sacra
men
to
San Fra
ncisco
Richm
ond
Met
ric
Rev
enue
Ton
s (M
illio
ns)
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Table 7-1HISTORICAL TRENDS IN MARITIME MARKETS
AND THE PORT OF SAN DIEGO*
YearTotal U.S.
Liner TradeWest CoastLiner Trade
Port ofSan Diego
1988 90.3 25.3 1.21989 98.2 30.8 1.3
1990 106.0 30.7 1.31991 108.0 32.2 0.91992 117.8 34.5 0.51993 121.7 34.9 0.51994 130.4 39.9 0.9
1995 146.4 45.0 1.01996 137.7 61.0 1.11997 133.2 58.2 1.5
Average Annual Growth 1988 to 19974.4% 9.7% 2.5%
* Millions of tonsSource: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Waterborne Exports andGeneral Imports, and the Port of San Diego
Table 7-2PORT OF SAN DIEGO
MARITIME CARGO MARKETS, FY 1998
Tonnage(000s)
Percent ofTonnage
10th Avenue Marine Terminal (TAMT)Soda Ash 599 49.8%Fertilizer 113 9.4%Containers 64 5.3%Liquid Bulk 42 3.5%Cement 26 2.2%News Print 14 1.2%Cold Storage 13 1.1%TAMT Subtotal 871 72.3%
National City Marine Terminal (NCMT)Autos 236 19.6%Lumber 97 8.1%NCMT Subtotal 333 27.7%
Port of San Diego Total 1204 100.0%
Source: Port of San Diego, Marine Terminal Master Plan, April 1999
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Air Cargo
Air freight has a potential service area that is significantly larger than that for passengertravel. Shippers using air freight services are sensitive to airport rates, capacity, andservice and are willing to truck freight considerable distances to reach the airports thatoffer the best rates and services. As a result, air freight activities are highly variable.
Most air cargo in the San Diego region is handled through San Diego InternationalAirport - Lindbergh Field, although a small percentage of it is handled at generalaviation airports. A considerable amount of San Diego�s air freight �leaks� to theLos Angeles and Ontario airports. This leakage could be as high as 80 percent andis due to a variety of reasons. Among these reasons are the availability of flights,curfews, type of equipment, and rates charged for air services.
Existing Terminals at Lindbergh Field5
Three air cargo terminals serve both the passenger and cargo carriers and are locatedeast of the passenger terminals. Two freight forwarders, Burlington Air Expressand LEP Profit International Airlines, operate from the largest terminal (Air SupportFacility). The other two smaller facilities house the United and Southwest Aircargo operations.
Federal Express and Emery Worldwide operate out of portable trailers. Cargo is sortedand containerized off-site, and then trucked to the airport and loaded directly on theaircraft. Similarly, in-bound cargo is loaded directly onto trucks from the aircraft andsorted off-site.
The main air freight operators are Federal Express, Emery, United Parcel Service (UPS),Airborne Express, Burlington Air Express, Ryan International, and Evergreen.
Historical air cargo volumes at Lindbergh Field are shown in Figure 7-8. From 1970to 1996, air cargo has grown from 19,744 tons to 102,514 tons, or at an average rate ofnearly seven percent per year. However, the most rapid growth has taken place sincethe mid-1980s.
5 San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper 1, Airport Inventory, 1998.
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Figure 7-8SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HISTORICAL AIR CARGO ACTIVITY
Source: San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper 2, Aviation Forecasts, 1998
San Diego Region-Baja California Border Area
The San Diego region shares a common international border with the Municipalities ofTijuana and Tecate in the State of Baja California, Mexico. There are three ports of entryin this region: San Ysidro, at the southern terminus of I-5; Otay Mesa, on SR 905 in theCity of San Diego; and Tecate, approximately 30 miles to the east. Figure 7-9 shows thelocation of the international border crossings.
San Ysidro is reportedly the busiest land port of entry in the world. It is the region'sprimary gate for auto and pedestrian traffic in both directions and for southboundpassenger buses. Commercial truck traffic uses the Otay Mesa or Tecate ports of entry.The Otay Mesa port has 100 bays for handling truck inspections and also serves autosand pedestrians. Truck, auto, and pedestrian traffic use the same facility at Tecate.
According to the U.S. Customs Service, in federal FY 1999, nearly 638,000 truckscrossed at the Otay Mesa port of entry from Mexico. At the Tecate port of entry, almost60,000 trucks crossed in the northbound direction.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Tons
Total Air Cargo Air Freight Air Mail
Oceanside
Carlsbad
Encinitas
Del Mar
Solana Beach
Poway
SanDiego
Coronado
ImperialBeach
ChulaVista
LaMesa
ElCajon
Escondido
Vista
SanMarcos
Campo
Jacumba
LemonGrove
8
79
15
75
805
94
94
163
282
209
274
52
67
805
78
78
67
76
76
15
54
8
8
5
5
15
94
79
188
78
5
NationalCity
CampPendleton
54
11
125
56
Santee
905
125
125
UNITED STATES
MEXICO
MEX
1-D
Imperial C
ounty
MEX
1
MEX
2-D
MEX
3
MEX
2
T2000
San Ysidro
East Otay Mesa
Tijuana
Otay Mesa Tecate
Tecate
MEX
2-D
MEX
2
Jacumé
N
Figure 7-9SAN DIEGO REGION/BAJA CALIFORNIAPORTS OF ENTRY
Current Ports of Entry
Potential Future Ports of Entry
0
MILES
3 6 9
E
A N
E
A N
MEX
2-D
MEX
2
To Ensenada To Ensenada
To Mexicali
Rosarito
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The San Diego & Arizona Eastern Railway connects San Diego to Tijuana and Tecate.The Metropolitan Transit Development Board (MTDB) owns the line in the United Statesand provides freight service under contract with the SDIV Railroad. The concession tooperate the Mexican section of the line is, at this writing, still not resolved, but the line isscheduled for privatization. Once the Mexican government determines the concessionaward and fire-damaged tunnels are repaired in the Carrizo Gorge area of easternSan Diego County, rail service could be restored between San Diego-Tijuana and theImperial Valley.
There are two public airports in the immediate border region. Tijuana InternationalAirport (Abelardo L. Rodriguez Field) on Mesa de Otay in Tijuana is aboutone-third mile (0.5 km) south of the border. It is a passenger and cargo airport withservice to major cities in Mexico. It has a single runway of 12,000 feet (3,658 m).Brown Field, owned and operated by the City of San Diego, is located about 1.4 miles(2.2 km) north of the border. It is primarily a general aviation field with one runway of8,000 feet (2,440 m) and a second runway of 3,000 feet (925 m).
ACCOMPLISHMENTS SINCE 1996
The implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) hasaffected the border region transportation infrastructure, with increasing numbers oftrucks and persons crossing the border for business. Public agency attention focused onthe adequacy of the existing infrastructure to serve the increasing movement of goodsacross and through the border area.
Improvements to Otay Mesa Road have been initiated to provide safer access tothe commercial port at Otay Mesa. Approximately 70 percent of the funding forthe construction of SR 905 has been identified. Progress was made on SR 125 Tollway,which is scheduled to open in 2002. The proposed SR 11, which will connect SR 905 andSR 125 to a new port of entry on East Otay Mesa, has been designated a state highway.
The City of San Diego is proposing redevelopment of Brown Field into an internationalcargo facility. The government of Mexico has awarded a concession to privately operatethe Tijuana International Airport.
The federal governments of the United States and Mexico, the City of San Diego, and theMunicipality of Tijuana are studying various possibilities for the reuse of the closed gateat Virginia Avenue-El Chaparral, located west of the San Ysidro border crossing.
Additional studies are examining the commercial usage of the rural portion of SR 94,potential new border crossings at East Otay Mesa and at Jacumba, and the potential forreopening the San Diego & Arizona Eastern Railway.
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In May 1996, local and state agencies in California and Baja California signed a letterof agreement to work cooperatively in transportation, the coordination of programs,and technology exchange. The Bi-State Transportation Technical Advisory Committee(BTTAC) was formed with participants from both sides of the border, including statetransportation planning departments, regional planning agencies (i.e., SANDAG,the Southern California Association of Governments, the Imperial Valley Association ofGovernments), and border cities and counties. The BTTAC meets regularly to coordinatetransportation plans and projects within the border region.
NEEDS ASSESSMENT
Since ISTEA, there has been a stronger linkage between transportation investments andfreight needs. While progress has been made in enhancing freight movements, a betterunderstanding of the public and private sector dynamics is needed, along withimprovements in infrastructure.
According to the National Commission on Intermodal Transportation, the weakest linksin the current transportation system are the points of transfer between the modes.Also, because the current systems are funded and managed separately by mode,the responsibility for strengthening those links is unclear. This Commissionrecommended that federal policies �foster the development of the private sector freightintermodal system and reduce barriers to the free flow of freight, particularly atinternational ports and border crossings.�6
Information technology also becomes more important in managing the flow of freight,since it is unlikely that planned capital investments in infrastructure improvements willbe able to keep pace with the expected demands.
Future growth in freight traffic could considerably exceed projected populationincreases in the United States. Between 1965 and 1992, U.S. population rose by 61 millionor 31 percent, while freight tons in the economy grew by 63 percent and the number offreight ton-miles traveled expanded by 52 percent.
In the San Diego region, the needs assessment for goods movement is being definedthrough a series of studies. These planning activities are carried out by localgovernments, the Port of San Diego, Caltrans, the MTDB, the North County TransitDistrict, SANDAG, and the U.S. General Services Administration, among others.
6 U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Freight: Economy in Motion,
1998.
215
Planning efforts include studies to determine improvements in the following highwaycorridors:
! North I-15
! I-5 North Coast
! Rural Highway 94
! A potential border crossing at Jacumba
! Future SR 11 and East Otay Mesa border crossing
! Central I-5
Also, the Port of San Diego�s Master Plan deals with air cargo and maritime shipping.An updated market demand study for the reopening of the San Diego & ArizonaEastern Railway was completed recently.
Although goods movement is segmented into specific modes such as trucking, rail,air cargo, and maritime shipping, much of the improvements needed regionally relateto the development of the intermodal connection between the modes. For example,the development of facilities where efficient transfer of goods can be made from ships torail to trucks and vice versa. The identification of facilities for this intermodal transfer isessential to the continued economic growth of the region.
Goods Movement Forecasts
This section presents a regional goods movement forecast by mode for goods travelingacross the San Diego County line, which is based on Caltrans� 1996 IntermodalTransportation Management System. Also, the Port of San Diego�s forecasts for air cargoactivity and maritime shipping, SANDAG�s market assessment for a reopenedSan Diego & Arizona Eastern Railway, and the San Diego Air Commerce Center�sforecast of aviation demand at a redeveloped Brown Field are summarized inthis section.
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Regional Goods Movement Forecast
Wilbur Smith Associates prepared a range of goods movement forecasts for SANDAG�sNorth Coast Transportation study.7 The findings related to the following tasks aresummarized in this section.
1. Consolidation and summary of existing goods movement data available fromSANDAG, Caltrans, the Port of San Diego, and other sources.
2. Preparation of a range of goods movement forecasts based on SANDAG economic,population, and employment forecasts, as well as national and statewide forecasts.
An important source of forecast information is the demand forecasting model developedby Caltrans as part of the California Intermodal Transportation Management System(ITMS) project completed in 1996. The ITMS model provides current and forecast freightdemand data by corridor, facility and mode. Its value is that it views the movementof goods from a national and international perspective. It covers the highway,rail, shipping, and air travel trade network in California on a facility-by-facility basis.
In the San Diego region, it includes information for Interstates 5, 15, 8, and 805,the Coast Corridor (LOSSAN) rail line, the Port of San Diego, and Lindbergh Field.The weakness of the ITMS model is that it provides a macro-scale picture and may notbe very sensitive to some local conditions that might influence goods movement. It alsowas developed before some of the more recent studies of cross-border trade movementswere completed. The ITMS forecasts, however, provide a benchmark against which tocompare other more locally-oriented forecasts.
Table 7-3 provides a regional goods movement forecast by mode for goods travelingacross the San Diego County line. It is based on the ITMS forecasts for each mode, butalso includes several adjustments made by Wilbur Smith Associates, as follows:
1. The rail forecasts utilize the percentage increases projected by the ITMSmodel, but the base year gross tonnage of rail freight (1992) was derived frominformation provided to the North County Transit District by the BNSF railroad.The ITMS percentages were then applied to the base year tonnage to estimate futureyear tonnage.
2. The forecasts for the Port of San Diego provided by the ITMS were only for the baseyear and the year 2002. In this case, the forecasts from the 1996 Strategic Plan for thePort of San Diego were used.
7 SANDAG, North Coast Transportation Study, Goods Movement Forecast, 1998-99.
217
3. The growth percentages forecast by the ITMS model for air cargo were appliedto the base year cargo volume reported in the 1996 SANDAG study, Market Demandand Opportunities Study for Air Transportation in the San Diego Region, to yieldprojected future year air cargo volumes.
Adjustment for Border Crossing Trade Impacts
One potential problem with the ITMS forecasts is that the effect of increased tradeactivity due to NAFTA may not be well represented in the forecasts on the tradenetwork in the San Diego region. The ITMS forecasts account for an expected104 percent increase from 1992 to the year 2022 in combined imports and exports relatedto trade with Mexico and Canada.8
The expected increase in trade flows between Mexico and the San Diego region couldbe much greater than that suggested by the ITMS. For example, the forecasts of the totalvalue of goods flowing across the California/Mexico border developed in the1997 SANDAG study: Tecate Port of Entry - Trade and Truck Traffic represent a 297 percentincrease in total value between 1995 and the year 2020. The forecasts from the BinationalBorder Transportation Planning and Programming Study also suggest much higher rates ofgrowth than the ITMS forecasts for California/Mexico trade. This study for example,forecast a 55 percent increase in trade flows for the five-year period from 1995-2000.9
The amount of cargo flowing across the border is substantial. In 1995, an estimated6.2 million tons of goods crossed between Mexico and California, of whichapproximately 4.1 million tons crossed into or from the San Diego region at Otay Mesaor Tecate. The trade forecasts from the Tecate Port of Entry study suggestthat this number could increase to as much as 24.6 million tons by the year 2020.The ITMS forecast rates of growth would suggest that this number would increaseto 11.6 million tons by the year 2020. Table 7-4 shows how the distribution ofthe additional 13.0 million tons, reflected by the difference between these two forecastsof cross border goods flow, would affect the regional forecasts. These adjusted forecastsassume that the added tonnage from the border crossing traffic would be uniformlydistributed among modes.
8 Caltrans/SANDAG, California Trade and Goods Movement Study-ITMS Freight Forecasts, pp. 12-139 Caltrans/SANDAG, California Trade and Goods Movement Study-ITMS Freight Forecasts, pp. 12-13
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Table 7-3ESTIMATED GOODS MOVEMENT FLOWS - SAN DIEGO REGION
ASSUMING ITMS FORECAST GROWTH RATES
Year Truck1 Rail2 Water3 Air4 Total
1992 51.4 3.6 0.5 0.2 55.72002 53.9 4.7 0.8 0.2 59.62012 59.6 4.9 1.2 0.3 66.02022 76.4 5.6 1.5 0.5 84.0
Percent Increase (1992-2022)49% 55% 200% 223% 51%
Notes:* millions of tons1 Tonnage crossing the County line on Interstate routes2 Gross tons (includes railcar weight) at County line3 Tonnage through the Port of San Diego4 Tonnage through San Diego region airportsSource: Wilbur Smith Associates, December 1998
Table 7-4ESTIMATED GOODS MOVEMENT FLOWS - SAN DIEGO REGION
ASSUMING HIGH RANGE OF NAFTA IMPACT
Year Truck1 Rail2 Water3 Air4 Total
1992 51.4 3.6 0.5 0.2 55.72002 57.8 5.0 0.9 0.3 63.92012 67.4 5.5 1.4 0.4 74.62022 88.2 6.5 1.7 0.6 97.0
Percent Increase (1992-2022)72% 80% 246% 273% 74%
Notes:* millions of tons1 Tonnage crossing the County line on Interstate routes2 Gross tons (includes railcar weight) at County line3 Tonnage through the Port of San Diego4 Tonnage through San Diego region airportsSource: Wilbur Smith Associates, December 1998
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Trucking
Over three-quarters of the shipments originating in California (based on tonnage) aretransported by truck. Trucking also is the dominant freight mode in the San Diegoregion.
As presented in the Needs Assessment section, several studies are being conducted todetermine improvements in highway corridors, such as the North I-15, the I-5 NorthCoast, the rural portion of Highway 94, and the potential new ports of entry.
Rail
While almost all of the rail products in, out and through the region are presently bulk orbreak bulk products (e.g., lumber, grain, soda ash, propane), many products are movedaround the nation and the world in standardized containers. These containers can betransported on flatbed trucks or stacked on ships and trains.
For railroads to play an important role in containerized goods movement, intermodalfacilities are necessary for truck-to-rail and ship-to-rail transfers. Successful railroads,competing with trucking for hauls longer than several hundred miles, have marketedtimely deliveries and lower shipping costs due to double-stacking containers and otherservice improvements.
This section presents an overview of rail and highway infrastructure that providesaccess to the Port of San Diego�s marine terminals.10 Competing passenger rail servicesand limited access to markets restrict freight rail access to the Port�s marine terminals.
The two primary commodities handled by freight rail at the Port are soda ashat the Tenth Avenue terminal and automobiles at the National City terminal. These twocommodities accounted for two-thirds of total cargo tonnage in 1998. Recently,lumber products and cement also have moved to the port via rail, but in much lowervolumes. By 1997, the Port of San Diego had become the eighth largest automobilehandling port in the United States.
From 1919 to 1983, San Diego was served by two railroads: the Atchinson, Topeka andSanta Fe � now BNSF � and a line that linked San Diego easterly to the Southern PacificRailroad system. The east line, the San Diego & Arizona Eastern (SD&AE) Railway,has been in and out of service throughout its history. Since 1983, the SDIV Railroad hasprovided freight service on the SD&AE Railway only between San Diego and Tecate,Baja California. Therefore, San Diego presently is linked to the rest of the United Statesand Mexico�s rail systems via the BNSF route through Los Angeles.
10 Port of San Diego, Marine Terminal Master Plan, Attachment B, 1999.
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The National City marine terminal is the hub of regional rail activity. BNSF servesPasha�s automotive cargoes as well as other industrial clients. BNSF has built amodern auto loading yard and a loop track. Five dedicated tracks for auto loading,which are equivalent to storage for 120 rail cars, and one gantry crane also are availableat this terminal.
The Tenth Avenue marine terminal has a dedicated vessel bulk loader and unloader aswell as storage capacity for 192 railcars.
BNSF handles about 100 carloads per day, including both maritime and non-maritimecargo, as shown in Table 7-5. Nearly half of the rail activity in the San Diego region isgenerated by operators or tenants of the Port�s two marine terminals.
As shown in the Maritime Shipping section above, automobile cargo is expectedto increase from 236,000 tons in 1998 to 342,000 tons by 2020. Also, soda ash and potashare forecast to grow from nearly 600,000 tons in 1998 to 908,000 tons over the next20 years while lumber shipments would increase from 97,000 tons to 132,000 tons in thesame period.
Table 7-5DAILY FREIGHT RAIL CAR ACTIVITY IN THE SAN DIEGO REGION
Shipper/Terminal CommoditiesAverage Cars
per Day
MaritimeTenth Avenue Terminal Soda Ash, other 18National City Terminal Automobiles 25
Lumber 4-6Maritime Subtotal 47-49
Non-MaritimeSDIV Propane, other 10Various Shippers Lumber 5-6
Autos 10-12Industrial 9-12Various 15
Non-Maritime Subtotal 49-55
Port of San Diego Rail Car Activity 96-104
Source: Port of San Diego, Marine Terminal Master Plan, Attachment B, 1999
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San Diego & Arizona Eastern Railway
In 1999, SANDAG prepared a market study to evaluate reopening the SD&AE Railwaybetween San Diego and the Imperial Valley.11 This study updated a previous one,conducted in 1996, and accounts for market growth in the regional and globaleconomies, consolidation and privatization in the North American rail industry, as wellas continuing development of binational trade policy.
Freight operations continue today between San Diego and Tecate, Mexico, but thesegment between Tecate and the Imperial Valley (the Desert Line) has been closed since1983 (Figure 7-10).
The new evaluation re-examined the traffic projections from SANDAG�s 1996 study andevaluated �new� markets not considered previously. The first study supportedreopening the Desert Line in two phases:
1. Basic Service:Rehabilitate the Desert Line to handle single-stack intermodal traffic and�conventional� rail carload traffic such as bulk commodities.
2. Modern Service:Improve the line to handle modern rail cars, including double-stack platforms andtriple-deck automobile carriers, build supporting facilities including storage yardsand an intermodal transfer facility.
In this update, the improvements necessary for Basic Service include rehabilitating theline and constructing an intermodal transfer facility in the San Diego area. The facilitywould gather and distribute potential diversions of truck traffic passing through theSD&AE�s service territory.
11 SANDAG, An Updated Market Study for the San Diego and Arizona Eastern (SD&AE) Railway, June 1999.
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The study findings are described below:
1. The market for a reopened Desert Line appears to be largely in bulk commodities and lowervalue freight, as opposed to automobiles or intermodal shipments of consumer goods suchas televisions.
The total volumes projected in the 1999 study are not much different from the1996 SANDAG study. However, the intermodal and automobile markets are highlyservice-sensitive, requiring considerable support and constant attention froma railroad�s marketing, operating, and service design organizations. While the SD&AEmay attract some intermodal business in single stack service if a proposed intermodalfacility were constructed either north or south of the border, it appears the SD&AEmay not be able to meet the service requirements for other sectors of the market.The 1999 market study provides updated and more detailed information on all potentialtraffic. It also depicts the logistics and conditions that affect the actual capture rate foreach market sector. The points that follow discuss the study�s general market outlookand major issues.
2. The projected traffic for the Desert Line in 1999, while only six to nine percent lower overallthan the 1996 SANDAG estimates, has markedly different characteristics.
In 1996, the largest segments of projected traffic in Modern Service were truck traffic(35 percent) and containerized hay (30 percent), followed by grain (24 percent) andautomobiles and parts (8 percent). In 1999, the significant sectors for Modern Service arein hay (18 percent), truck traffic (19 percent), municipal solid waste (9 percent),manufactured trailers and containers (16 percent), and cement and backhaul sand(5 percent each). For Basic Service, a similar shift occurred, away from grains and hay(87 percent down to 29 percent), toward a wider market minus the container traffic.
The market assessments estimate that under Basic Service the SD&AE would capture14,553 carloads five years after reopening, growing to 17,476 carloads after 10 years.Under Modern Service, the line would capture 20,289 carload equivalents afterfive years, growing to 27,654 after 10 years. The comparatively faster growth rate forModern Service reflects the aggressive expansion that is expected to occur forintermodal freight in the near- and medium-term, particularly in the import containerbusiness and in truck-based shipments from the maquiladoras.
Table 7-6 lists the projections for each commodity considered in 1996 and 1999. Reasonsfor differences between the two estimates and other factors affecting the potentialmarket for the SD&AE are summarized in the following points.
SANTA BARBARA
BAKERSFIELD
BARSTOW
SAN DIEGO
TIJUANATECATE
CALEXICO
YUMA
KINGMAN
PHOENIX
TUCSON
NOGALES
FLAGSTAFF
BENJAMIN HILL
Map Not to Scale
SAN BERNARDINO
EL CENTRO
ENSENADA
MEXICALI
NILAND
TO BAY AREA,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LOS ANGELES
TO SALT LAKE CITY,
OMAHA, CHICAGO
LAS VEGAS
UTAH
ARIZONA
SOURCES: Caltrans, Southern Pacific Lines, April 1999
NEVADA
NEWMEXICO
TO ALBUQUERQUE, KANSAS CITY,
CHICAGO
TO CHICAGO,
TEXAS, MAINLAND
MEXICO
SONORA
BAJACALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA
PORTS OF LA / LONG BEACH
TO MEXICO CITY
Concession Not Yet Awarded
Out of Service
PLASTER CITY
UNITED STATES MEXICO
Figure 7-10SOUTHWEST RAILWAYS
Burlington Northern Santa Fe
Union Pacific
Arizona & California
San Diego & Arizona Eastern
FerroMex
National Railways of Mexico (FNM)
N
COLORADO
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Table 7-6SD&AE RAILROAD � DESERT LINE
YEAR 10 TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS BY TRAFFIC LANE AND CARGO: 1996 vs. 1999CARLOAD EQUIVALENTS PER YEAR
1996 Projection 1999 Projection ChangeTraffic Lane Cargo Units Basic Modern Basic Modern Basic Modern Comments
SDIV - Non Desert Line All Commodities 3,500 3,500 3,544 3,544 44 44 LPG on the declineSDIV - Desert Line Potential Grain - - 832 832 832 832 Brewery, feed lotsTotal SD&IV 3,500 3,500 4,376 4,376 876 876Port of San Diego to El Centro Cement Carload 900 900 1,305 1,305 405 405 Contingent on absence of dumping
dutiesAZ - SD Backhaul Sand Carload - - 1,318 1,318 1,318 1,318 Contingent on viable headhaulPlaster City to El Cajon Gypsum Wallboard Carload 130 130 571 571 441 441 New USG plant capacitySD-Eastern Markets Other Rail Traffic Carload - - 384 384 384 384 Historical capture rateSD-Eastern Markets Other Truck Traffic Container - - 132 132 132 132 Historical capture rateSD to Eastern CA MSW Container - - 2,509 2,509 2,509 2,509 Volume sent out of stateTijuana - North Containers/Trailers Container - - 3,275 7,205 3,275 7,205 Trailers, containers, chassisSD&AE: East - SD Pulpboard Carload - - 191 191 191 191 Vendors control inbound materialPort of San Diego Containers Intermodal Container - - - 1,105 - 1,105 Port Master PlanImperial Valley to Port of San Diego Sudan Grass Container 9,000 9,000 4,993 4,993 -4,007 -4,007 Contingent on container handling and
ocean carrier service @ Port of San DiegoSD&AE: East - SD Other SDAE Traffic Carload - - 433 433 433 433 Reroute existing traffic to Desert LineSD-Eastern Markets Perishables Carload - - 393 393 393 393 Contingent on equipment availability
and competitive ratesSD to/from Mexico via Calexico Current Truck Traffic Container - 1,520 - 1,997 - 477 Current truck freightTrona - SD Soda Ash Carload - - 1,078 1,078 1,078 1,078 To Port of San DiegoPlaster City to Port of San Diego Bulk Gypsum Carload 280 280 62 62 -218 -218 Requires transloadSD/Tijuana Border Region to USMarkets
Manufactured Goodsand Merchandise
Container - 9,000 - 3,144 - -5,856 Contingent on development ofintermodal facility @ Tijuana
Imperial Valley to Port of San Diego Wheat/Grain Carload 1,670 1,670 - - -1,670 -1,670 No grain capability @ Port of San DiegoPort of San Diego to Hermosillo Auto Parts Container 1,150 1,150 - - -1,150 -1,150 Logistics demandsAutos to/from Port of San Diego Automobiles Carload - 1,110 - - - -1,110 Logistics demandsPort of San Diego to Baja, IV, AZ Canadian Barley Carload 5,550 5,550 - - -5,550 -5,550 Former Pasha Initiative; no grain
capability @ Port of San DiegoMexicali - North Maquila Intermodal Container - - - - - - Out of route
Desert Line 18,680 30,310 17,476 27,652 -1,204 -2,658
Total SD&AE 22,180 33,810 21,020 31,196 -1,160 -2,614
Source: SANDAG and The Kingsley GroupSD (San Diego), AZ (Arizona), IV (Imperial Valley), USG (U.S. Gypsm)
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3. The SD&AE could still provide a competitive shipping option for the Imperial Valley forselected commodities.
Increases in production capacity at the U.S. Gypsum plant in Plaster City andin the amount of cement shipped through the Port of San Diego to El Centro representstrong markets for the SD&AE. However, grain is no longer shipped through thePort of San Diego. Other hurdles at the Port of San Diego include limited container-handling capacity and restricted landside access. When combined with competitionfrom trucks, the Union Pacific Railroad, and the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,only a portion of the containerized hay produced in the Imperial Valley may go to thePort of San Diego via the SD&AE. As a result, there is a reduced potential for theSD&AE to serve the Imperial Valley.
4. Conditions at the Port of San Diego have decreased opportunities for the SD&AE.
While overall cargoes and the BNSF operations at the port are growing, the prospects forthe SD&AE at the port are not as strong. Cement and soda ash remain potential cargoes,but the import/export grain traffic projected in the 1996 study was excluded from the1999 study. Grain-handling facilities at the Port of San Diego are no longer available andare not part of the port�s future plans. The lack of container-handling equipment andlimited rail access to the port are among the factors that also reduce the number ofcontainers filled with hay and other products that would move to and from the port onthe SD&AE. As an example, the BNSF has invested $20 million since the 1996 studyin sidings and automobile loading facilities at the Port�s National City Marine Terminal.The new tracks effectively eliminate direct access possibilities into the terminal forthe SD&AE.
5. Most maquiladora shipments will be difficult for the SD&AE to capture.
Low-value products such as solid waste, as well as selected manufactured goods, offergood intermodal potential for the SD&AE. For example, an exceptional opportunity forthe SD&AE is the transport of shipping trailers and containers manufactured at theHyundai Precision plant in Tijuana. These various products require an intermodalfacility for truck-to-rail transfers and until one can be built on each side of the border,a site in the United States could best serve both regions. However, the logisticalrequirements of most intermodal movements of consumer goods made in maquiladoras,as well as the transport of automobiles, require levels of rail service and security that theSD&AE would be hard pressed to provide even in a Modern Service configuration.Intermodal customers like the maquiladoras typically prefer expedited single-lineservice (e.g., BNSF or Union Pacific Railroad handling the freight from origin todestination) over a two-line haul (e.g., SD&AE interchanging with Union PacificRailroad). In general, railroad interchanges impede the flow of traffic through increasedhandling of railcars, causing delays as well as increasing the chances of damage.
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6. Until a rail line is built between Ensenada and Tecate, the Port of Ensenada would generatelittle traffic for a reopened SD&AE.
The 1999 study evaluated the capability of the Port of Ensenada to provide competitivefeeder service of import containers to the Desert Line. Without a rail line betweenEnsenada and Tecate, the Port of Ensenada is at a disadvantage to compete with thegrowing container Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Because of their plannedexpansion, any potential diversion from the San Pedro ports because of capacitylimitations does not appear likely.
To provide traffic for the Desert Line, the Port of Ensenada must rely on one oftwo alternatives: truck service to Tecate or Tijuana, or all-rail service over a not-yetconstructed line between Ensenada and Tecate. The truck/rail costs between Ensenadaand an interchange at Plaster City exceed the level required to compete with thePort of San Pedro. With the all-rail configuration, imported containerized freight wouldrepresent a moderately high potential for the Desert Line. However, because it requiresan up-front investment estimated at $128 million to build the line and support facilities,traffic from the Port of Ensenada was not considered a source for Desert Line traffic inthis study. The truck/rail service option, with its non-competitive cost structure, wouldbe the only route readily available in the short to medium term.
7. A reopened SD&AE would improve regional air quality and reduce truck congestion.
The 10-year traffic projections for each service configuration were used to generatecongestion and air quality mitigation estimates as well as an overview of public benefits.Use of the Desert Line in its Basic Service configuration will result in the elimination ofup to 20,000 trucks annually from the highways in the San Diego area by year 10.In the Modern Service configuration, more than 32,000 trucks will be eliminated.These reductions in truck traffic will result in the elimination by year 10 of up to25 tons of truck-based emissions annually under Basic Service, and 106 tons of emissionsunder Modern Service.
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Maritime Shipping
The main findings and conclusions of the Port of San Diego�s Marine TerminalMaster Plan are presented in this section.
1. The Port of San Diego has experienced a substantial turnaround in cargo volumes andfinancial performance between 1993 and 1998.
In FY 1993, the maritime business at the Port reached its lowest levels when cargotonnage dropped to 546,000 tons. Since that time, the Port has been successful inrevitalizing its maritime business.
Maritime cargo increased to more than 1.2 million tons by 1998, representing a126 percent increase over 1993 levels.
2. The Port�s marine terminals are underutilized. Expected growth of indigenous cargo shouldnot stress the capacity of the existing terminals over the next 20 years.
Both the National City and the Tenth Avenue marine terminals are underutilized(especially the Tenth Avenue terminal). Substantial growth in cement and automobilecargo is expected in the near future. However, long term growth rates for thecargoes currently handled by the Port are expected to range between one andtwo percent annually. At this rate, indigenous cargo would grow from 1.6 million tonsin 2000 to 2.2 million tons by 2020. If no new cargoes were introduced at the Port overthe next 20 years, the existing capacity would be adequate to meet the expected demand.
The Port of San Diego has a transportation cost advantage over Southern Californiacontainer ports. Past planning efforts at the Port of San Diego have not focusedon containers. However, recent high container growth rates at U.S. ports, combinedwith a long term optimistic trade outlook, suggest that the potential for containercargoes at San Diego should be re-evaluated. According to the Master Plan�s consultant,the Port of San Diego should include containers in its planning activities for two reasons,as follows:
a. By 2020, there could be a 6,800-acre shortfall in container terminal acreage at thePorts of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
b. San Diego has a transportation cost advantage over Los Angeles and Long Beach tomarkets in San Diego, Riverside, and Imperial Counties; Mexico�s border withCalifornia; and the states of Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada.
229
Nearly 2.9 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of container cargo come from ormove to those locations via the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The Port ofSan Diego could capture at least 3.5 percent of this market, which would represent79,000 TEUs in 2005 and 343,000 TEUs by 2020. Containers could add an additional2.1 million tons of cargo in San Diego by 2020, which would nearly double the volume ofcargo tonnage provided by indigenous cargoes. Table 7-7 shows the expected cargoforecast for the Port of San Diego.
Adding containers also would provide better balance and diversification to thePort of San Diego�s cargo portfolio.
Table 7-7EXPECTED CARGO FORECAST FOR THE PORT OF SAN DIEGO1
Cargo ForecastAverage Annual
Growth RateCategory /Commodity FY 97/98 2000 2010 2020 (2000-2020)
Dry BulkSoda Ash, Potash, etc. 599 621 725 908 1.8%Cement 26 345 422 509 1.9%Fertilizer 113 116 134 154 1.3%
Covered BreakbulkNewsprint 14 50 57 67 1.4%
Cold StorageFresh Fruit 13 33 39 45 1.5%
Liquid BulkPetroleum 41 41 55 68 2.4%
Open StorageAutos 236 316 326 342 0.4%Lumber 97 94 113 132 1.6%Containers 64 0 1,294 2,158 16.5%2
General CargoMiscellaneous 78 22 55 117 8.3%
Total Annual Tonnage 1,281 1,638 3,220 4,500 4.9%
1 Thousands of tons2 Container AAGR calculated from FY 97/98 volumes.Source: San Diego Master Plan, Booz-Allen Analysis, 1999
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Air Cargo
Although some of the air cargo delivered to the region arrives at general aviationairports, the majority comes into Lindbergh Field. Whereas San Diego accounts for11 percent of the population in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay area, only2.2 percent of the air freight from the total area enplanes/deplanes in San Diego.Air freight in San Diego has been growing at a faster rate than the rest of SouthernCalifornia, but remains small compared to the other major California airports.
The domestic air freight market is dominated by smaller lightweight shipments.Most heavy cargo travels by less-expensive surface modes.
The majority of "heavy" air cargo is not transported from/to Lindbergh Field, but istrucked in and out of the region via the Los Angeles and Ontario airports.Few widebody freighter and passenger aircraft serve San Diego, a trend expected tocontinue over the near future.
Air Cargo Forecast
Figure 7-11 shows the forecast of air cargo for Lindbergh Field. Air freight, whichincludes belly cargo and all-cargo carrier freight, is projected to increase from72,725 tons in 1996 to 355,241 tons in 2020. Air mail is forecast to grow from nearly30,000 tons in 1996 to 86,679 tons in 2020.
Cargo activity at Lindbergh Field is assumed to follow projected industry trends.Total all-cargo-related aircraft operations are forecast to increase from 2,750 operationsin 1996 to 6,800 in 2020. Air mail operations would grow from 1,040 operations in 1996to 2,600 in 2020. Figure 7-12 illustrates the unconstrained forecast of total air cargooperations at Lindbergh Field.
Air Freight Forecast
Air freight has been one of the fastest growing areas of aviation activity. In addition toeconomic growth, new services such as overnight door-to-door deliveries havecontributed to the growth in air freight.
In 2020, the San Diego International Airport is projected to handle 355,241 tons of airfreight. This forecast represents almost a five-fold increase in tonnage compared to the72,725 tons handled in 1996.
This unconstrained forecast includes both passenger cargo (belly cargo) and all-cargocarrier freight. Air freight is forecast to grow at an annual rate of eight percent between1996 and 2000 and at 6.6 percent yearly through 2020. Figure 7-13 illustrates historicaland projected unconstrained air freight activity at the airport.
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Figure 7-11SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
PROJECTED AIR CARGO ACTIVITY
Source: Port of San Diego, San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper No. 2, AviationForecasts, 1998.
Figure 7-12SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTFORECAST OF AIR CARGO OPERATIONS
Source: Port of San Diego, San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper No. 2, AviationForecasts, 1998.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Tons
Total Air Cargo Air Freight Air Mail
2,7503,600
4,2005,000
5,8006,800
3,0002,800
2,600
1,040
3,2003,200
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
No.
of O
pera
tions
All Cargo Operations Mail Carrier Operations
232
Figure 7-13SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED AIR FREIGHT ACTIVITY
Source: Port of San Diego, San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper 2, AviationForecasts, 1998.
Figure 7-14SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT2020 PROJECTED AIR FREIGHT ACTIVITY
Source: Port of San Diego, San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper 2, AviationForecasts, 1998.
476,538
286,184310,410
435,241
355,241
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Base Case Scenario 1 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
Tons
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Tons
233
In addition to the unconstrained or base case activity projections, the Port of San Diegoprepared six other forecast scenarios. Four of them would result in different activitylevels for air freight, as shown in Figure 7-14.
Scenario 1, High Economic Growth, assumes that real income in the San Diego region,the United States, and worldwide grows at a rate 50 percent higher than thebase case. Because of that anticipated rapid economic growth, this scenario assumes thehigh Boeing air cargo growth rates. Air freight activity would reach 476,538 tons in 2020.Forecast tonnage under this scenario would be 34 percent higher than underthe base case.
Scenario 4, Open Skies, assumes that several international markets would be addedbetween the years 2000 and 2015. Air freight is projected at 435,241 tons in 2020,or nearly 23 percent higher than the base case alternative.
Scenario 5, LAX/El Toro Development, assumes that the San Diego InternationalAirport would maintain the projected Canadian and Mexican service but El Toro or LAXwould serve all other international service. Under this scenario, air freight levels wouldbe 24 percent lower than under the base case scenario. Tonnage in 2020 is projectedat 286,184.
Scenario 6, Capacity Constraint, assumes there will be only minor improvements to theairfield and operational procedures. Air freight activity is projected at 310,410 tons in2020 or about 13 percent lower than the base case alternative.
Mail Activity Forecast
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) used to contract air mail services through passengercarriers almost exclusively. However, to achieve the schedule flexibility of integratedcarriers for overnight deliveries, the USPS also has been contracting services withcargo carriers.
In 1996, air mail activity accounted for nearly 30,000 tons. It is projected to nearly tripleby 2020, reaching 86,679 tons.
The highest growth in air mail tonnage took place in the early 1990s. The Port ofSan Diego anticipates that air mail growth at the airport will average about 10 percentthrough the year 2000. For the next 20 years, air mail is projected to increase at3.4 percent annually. Figure 7-14 illustrates historical and projected air mail activityat Lindbergh Field.
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Figure 7-15SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED AIR MAIL ACTIVITY (UNCONSTRAINED)
Source: Port of San Diego, San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper 2, AviationForecasts, 1998.
Figure 7-16SAN DIEGO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTAIR CARGO FACILITY REQUIREMENTS1
1 MillionsSource: Port of San Diego, San Diego International Airport Master Plan, Working Paper No. 3 DemandCapacity Analysis and Facility Requirements, 1998.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Tons
90,905123,680
170,245
234,345
322,590
444,050
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Build
ing
(Squ
are
Feet
)
235
Air Cargo Facility Requirements
As presented in the previous sections, air cargo at San Diego International Airport isprojected to quadruple by 2020. To accommodate that growth, additional cargo facilitieswill be needed.
The size of the airport�s existing cargo facilities is nearly 70,000 square feet. Currently,there is a building deficit of approximately 20,000 square feet. The building space isinadequate due to several reasons that include the age of the buildings, and theirlocation and configuration. Thus, for planning purposes, the current air cargo buildingrequirement assumes replacement of the existing structures.
Figure 7-16 illustrates the estimated size of cargo facilities that would be requiredat the airport over time. By 2020, buildings with an approximate dimension of444,000 square feet would be needed to handle the projected 355,241 tons of air freight.This would result in a building utilization rate of 1.25 square feet per annual ton offreight. (The average for most U.S. airports is 1.5 square feet per ton; but, historically,San Diego International Airport has had a higher building utilization rate.)
With regard to air mail facilities, the USPS would require a building of 40,000 to50,000 square feet that would enable the consolidation of operations that presently takeplace off the airport premises, such as Express Mail.
Cargo Apron
The San Diego International Airport currently has approximately 30,000 square yardsof cargo apron space. The cargo ramp tends to be congested during peak periods.According to the Master Plan, the required apron area is estimated at 246,700 squareyards in 2020.
Brown Field
Brown Field is located in the South Bay, within the community of Otay Mesa,in the City of San Diego. The airport site is about 21 miles southeast of downtownSan Diego and two miles from the United States-Mexico border and the TijuanaInternational Airport.
Brown Field is a general aviation airport, which serves private and business aircraftoperations. It does not offer commercial passenger service.
There are two parallel runways at the airport. The main runway is nearly 8,000 feet longby 150 feet wide. The secondary parallel runway is approximately 3,000 feet by70 feet wide. A single full-length parallel taxiway system with five runway exits isprovided for both runways.
236
Among the landside facilities, Brown Field includes a 21-acre concrete apron withfour aircraft maintenance hangars and storage units for approximately 87 aircraft.Portable fuel farm tanks and buildings, which house tenants, airport operations,and U.S. Customs also are located on the apron.
Facilities at the South-Central airfield include the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) air traffic control tower and two Experimental Aircraft Association aircraftstorage hangars. The joint-use Airport-Otay Mesa Fire Station is located at theSouth-East airfield, as well as several wood-frame buildings dating from World War IIthat are being leased.
Proposed Air Cargo Facility
The San Diego Air Commerce Center (SANDACC) would provide up to one millionsquare feet of air cargo and general aviation facilities at Brown Field. The project wouldinclude offices and warehouse facilities for freight forwarders, customs brokers,consolidators, and all cargo carriers.
The current runway is planned to be extended from 8,000 to 11,500 feet to allowwide-body, fully loaded air cargo aircraft to fly nonstop to destinations such as theFar East and Latin America. An instrument landing system (ILS) with a 24-hour airtraffic control tower is under development. SANDACC also will include retail andcommercial facilities, restaurants and overnight lodging.
If the FAA approves the plans, Brown Field will become one of the two first airports tobe privatized in the United States. Under current law, airport revenues can only beutilized for airport-related services. Under this program, the FAA would lower itscontribution for discretionary grants for improvements, such as new runways, from90 percent to 60 percent. After ensuring operational and maintenance expenses are met,the airport�s private developer would be responsible for the remaining 40 percent.The contribution of the developer would allow the City of San Diego to use the extracash flow generated from airport use for General Fund purposes.
Forecast of Aviation Demand
The projections of aviation demand for the SANDACC Master Plan study represent theproposed air cargo facility, additional fixed-based operator facilities, the impact ofmarketing efforts, historical activity levels, and expected growth trends. This forecast istheoretical in nature and it depends on attracting an industry segment � air cargo �which at present does not exist at Brown Field. The Master Plan study states that thelikelihood of attracting cargo operators, and to what extent, was determined through aCargo Market Assessment.
237
Projections of Air Cargo Operations
Total aircraft operations at Brown Field are anticipated to grow at a compounded rate of2.2 percent per year by the end of the 20-year planning period. The number of basedaircraft is projected to increase from 197 currently to 253 in the 20-year timeframe.
Air cargo activity, which presently does not exist at Brown Field, is forecast to reachslightly over 500,000 tons per year by 2016. Annual air cargo operations are projected at13,728 by the same year.
A summary of projections of air cargo demand is shown in Table 7-8.
Table 7-8BROWN FIELD
SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS OF AIR CARGO DEMAND
Current 2001 2006 2016
Air CargoAnnual Operations - 4,004 8,580 13,728Tonnage - 70,785 174,298 506,040
Note: Annual operations assume 286 operation days in a year.Source: San Diego Air Commerce Center at Brown Field, Draft Airport Master Plan Study, 1998.
San Diego Region-Baja California Border Area
The population of the border area of San Diego and Tijuana-Tecate is approachingfive million persons. Each weekday, 110,000 autos, 800 buses, and 5,000 trucks cross theborder. It is important that the border region's transportation needs be identified andthat improvements are planned to meet the challenges of greater international trade andother economic and social activities in the border region.
Goods carried in trucks entering the United States at the region�s ports of entry aredestined for all states in the country. There is continuing growth in the maquiladora andother manufacturing businesses in Tijuana and Tecate, as well as in the warehousingand related service businesses in the San Diego region. In addition, much of the inputsfor goods manufactured in the maquiladoras is trucked from Los Angeles and San Diegointo Tijuana and Tecate over the local highways and streets. This business growthresults in the increase in truck traffic along the highways and surface streets in theborder region. In 1999, approximately 698,000 trucks crossed at the Otay Mesa andTecate ports of entry from Mexico.
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In 2001, NAFTA requires that product parts must come from the NAFTA nations,so that the full benefit of the agreement can be realized. This may increase the number oftrucks traveling to the border on the region�s surface streets.
Highways in the region must meet the capacity requirements of this growing use.In addition, with increased trade and truck traffic, there also is a need for a continuoushighway system, from Canada to Mexico, and from the West Coast to the Gulf of Mexicoand the eastern United States.
How this will affect surface truck traffic, from the transport of air cargo at the borderarea airfields and cargo entering the region from expanded port facilities at thePorts of San Diego and Ensenada, is difficult to estimate.
Because railroads are customarily used to transport bulk cargo distances greater than500 miles, reopening the SD&AE Railroad may not significantly affect the amount ofcross-border truck traffic on the region�s highways and surface streets. Implementationof the NAFTA trucking provisions, allowing trucks from the United States and Mexicointo each country, has been delayed.
Following the economic recovery from the recession of the early 1990s, growth in tradeis expected to increase across the border in both directions. Inspection requirements ofthe federal inspection agencies of the two countries slow the truck crossing process.For both reasons, an additional port of entry has been proposed to be located atEast Otay Mesa, a few miles east of the existing Otay Mesa port of entry. This bordercrossing could be open by 2010, providing funds were made available. It wouldbe connected to the highways serving the border area by a new highway, SR 11,to be developed in conjunction with the border crossing.
Moreover, SANDAG is conducting a study for Caltrans to evaluate the feasibility of afuture border crossing linking Jacumba, in San Diego County, and Jacumé, in theMunicipality of Tecate, Mexico. SAHOPE, Baja California�s state planning agency, alsohas considered this location for a future port of entry in its long-range planning work.
Figure 7-9 shows the general site of the future East Otay Mesa port of entry as well asthe location of the potential Jacumba border crossing.
Finally, SANDAG is conducting the San Diego Region-Baja California CrossborderTransportation study, with funding from Caltrans. The purpose of the study is todevelop a system-wide approach for evaluating and forecasting vehicular travel acrossthe border, with major consideration given to the possible interaction among existingand proposed ports of entry. Understanding cross-border traffic flows and forecastingcommercial and passenger vehicle traffic in a systematic manner will aid in theevaluation of proposed transportation improvements in a binational context as well ashelp in the identification of future needs.
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PLAN
The development of a coordinated system for the delivery of goods in the San Diegoregion requires a partnership between and among government agencies andshippers. The emphasis of this Goods Movement Chapter of the RTP is to continueto build a comprehensive database and to study aspects of commodity transport thatare not yet fully understood. Additionally, the RTP encourages the transport of goodsby rail to reduce congestion on the freeway system, to reduce the amount of energyused in the region, and to improve air quality. Air cargo and maritime shippingalso are encouraged.
To accomplish the objectives that relate to increasing the tonnage of freight movedintermodally, additional work will be necessary on improving access and integratingtruck, rail, air cargo, and maritime shipping.
As mentioned in the Accomplishments section above, the transportation planningagencies in the San Diego region have entered into cooperative agreements with theircounterparts in Baja California. With similar cooperation between the land use agencies,both the U.S. and Mexican governments could coordinate the planning and constructionof transportation facilities as well as industrial and commercial developments.Such agreements would build on the early agreements between the Cities of San Diegoand Tijuana and between Caltrans and the transportation department of the State ofBaja California (SAHOPE).
OBJECTIVES
1. Increase the annual amount of tonnage carried on rail. Rail cargo tonnagefor automobiles, soda ash, and lumber - the three main cargoes handled at thePort of San Diego�s marine terminals � should grow by nearly 50 percent by 2020 toapproximately 1.4 million tons annually.
2. Reopening the SD&AE Railway will result in the elimination of up to 20,000 trucksannually from the highways in the San Diego region after ten years of operation(in its Basic Service configuration).
3. Increase the amount of maritime cargo handled by the Port of San Diego fromnearly 1.3 million tons in 1998 to 4.5 million tons by 2020.
4. Boost the region�s share of air cargo shipments by increasing capacity at LindberghField and through the potential redevelopment of Brown Field as an air cargofacility. The Port of San Diego�s unconstrained forecasts of air freight and air mailactivity indicate that demand would quadruple to approximately 440,000 tonsper year by 2020.
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5. Reduce current truck congestion to air cargo facilities at Lindbergh Field byseparating cargo and passenger facilities. SANDAG�s proposed Central I-5 CorridorStudy will evaluate needed improvements to facilitate truck access to LindberghField�s air cargo terminals.
6. Lower truck transport cost by eliminating peak hour congestion on key highwaysegments. (An objective of the Highway Chapter of the RTP states that no more than30 miles of the regional urban freeways would be deficient.)
7. Develop a border-area funding program for state and federal highwayimprovements and an additional port of entry linking San Diego and Tijuana.
POLICIES
1. Goods movement efficiency and productivity should be encouraged by facilitatingthe intermodal transfer of goods and reducing traffic congestion.
2. Capital projects that reduce the negative environmental and land use impactsassociated with accessing intermodal transfer facilities should be encouraged.
3. The need to move goods competitively should be considered when setting prioritiesfor capital projects.
4. The geometric requirements of goods movement providers should be considered inthe design of major intersections.
5. Freight loading and unloading facilities should be provided in all employment andretail areas.
6. The movement of goods by the less congested rail and water modes shouldbe encouraged.
7. Rail passenger and freight movements should be coordinated, with the movementof goods encouraged during off-peak passenger movement times.
8. Rail freight service to Imperial County should be reinstated.
9. Funding programs should be established and continued to provide the neededinfrastructure in the border region.
10. An additional port of entry should be developed at East Otay Mesa to accommodatethe additional truck, bus, and passenger vehicle traffic that will occur in thegrowing border area.
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11. Advanced technology systems should be implemented, in cooperation with theprivate sector, to better manage commercial vehicle operations.
ACTIONS
1. The Port of San Diego, in cooperation with SANDAG, Caltrans, and localjurisdictions, will evaluate capital and operating improvements that will enhanceaccess to the marine and air cargo terminals.
2. NCTD and MTDB, as owners of rail rights-of-way within the San Diego region,will encourage through marketing, off-peak use of rail capacity for rail freightmovement.
3. SANDAG will facilitate communications between governmental entities of theSan Diego region and Baja California.
4. Caltrans will study freight transportation infrastructure needs and means ofaddressing these needs, with the assistance of SANDAG, as appropriate.
5. Caltrans, local governments, and SANDAG will work to secure funds for neededtransportation infrastructure in the region�s border area.
6. SANDAG, Caltrans, the County and the City of San Diego, as well as the federalGeneral Services Administration (GSA), will coordinate the implementation ofborder-related capital and operating improvements necessitated by increased trade.
7. Caltrans and SANDAG will continue to develop and to update a goods movementdatabase with which to analyze current and future transportation needs.
8. If Mexico builds a rail link between the Port of Ensenada and Tecate,Baja California, SANDAG and MTDB will coordinate linking rail access via theexisting SD&AE line.
9. SANDAG will work with federal, state and local agencies to encourage theelimination of railroad grade crossings.
10. Caltrans will study the development of a new port of entry at East Otay Mesa, and aconnecting highway (SR 11), with the assistance of SANDAG and the City andCounty of San Diego. Caltrans, in cooperation with local and state agencies in theUnited States and Mexico, will investigate the feasibility of opening a port of entryat Jacumba, in the southwestern corner of the region.
11. Caltrans, SANDAG, local agencies and shippers will review the potential forconsolidating rail, truck and air cargo freight terminals at specific staging areas.
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12. SANDAG in coordination with Caltrans, the cities, the County, and transit agencieswill update the previous analysis related to safe highway and rail routes forhazardous materials.
13. Caltrans will recommend applications of advanced technologies for goodsmovement such as truck "weigh-in-motion" machines, automatic vehicleidentification systems, and computerized navigation technology.