Chapter 5

Public Opinion Public opinion is important in US

Opinions about a given government policy can change over time, often dramatically

Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policies

Citizens often provide opinions on which they have no expertise

Governments tend to respond to public opinion

The government sometimes does not do what people want

Public Opinion and Models of Democracy

Opinion polling dates from the 1930s

Not a powerful research tool until computers invented in 1950s

Founders built public opinion into structure of government by allowing direct election of representatives to the House and apportioning representation there by population

Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone

Statistical theory of sampling holds that a sample of a population selected by chance is representative of that population

Three factors affect accuracy of sample: Must be chosen randomly Larger samples more accurate Greater variation in population means

greater chance for differences in ability to predict

Accurate Polling Most national opinion polling

organizations poll 1,500 individuals Accurate within 3 percentage points

95% of the time Even this small margin of error can

mean incorrect predictions in close elections

Polls can be wrong because of biased question wording or superficial responses

Look at current polls: http://www.pollingreport.com

Public Opinion and Democracy

Majoritarian model of democracy holds government should do what a majority of the people want Around 70% of Americans think

majority opinion should have a great deal of influence on politicians

Pluralist model of democracy believes democracy requires free expression of opinions by minority groups Public as a whole rarely demonstrates

clear, consistent opinions

Public Opinion and Democracy

Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under majoritarian model

Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not always reflect public opinion

Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against majority opinion

Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent public opinion about public policies

Pluralist model sees public uninformed and ambivalent about specific issues

Gallup Poll

Accuracy

The Distribution of Public Opinion

To understand and act on public opinion, government must understand how it is distributed

Distribution of public opinion falls into three patterns: Skewed Bimodal Normal

Figure 5.2

Three Distributions of Opinion

Distribution Models for Public Opinion

Description of public opinion results depends on mode, or most frequent response Skewed distributions have most

respondents with one opinion Bimodal distributions have two

answers chosen with about equal frequency

Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a continuum, requiring a moderate approach to policymaking

Stability of the Distribution

Stable distributions have little change over time When same question produces

different responses over time, public opinion has shifted

When different questions on same issue produce similar results, underlying attitudes stable

Ideological Distributions

Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed towards conservatism Since 1992, slightly more

conservatives and fewer moderates Changes in subgroups, such as

college students, may not be reflected in general population

Opinions about controversial issues can change dramatically over time

Figure 5.3 Are Students More

ConservativeThan Their Parents?

Political Socialization Values acquired through political

socialization Most people exposed to same

sources of influence, or agents of socialization Family School Community Peers The media

The Agents of Early Socialization

Fundamental principles of early learning: The primacy principle The structuring principle

The extent of any socializing agent depends on our exposure to it, communication with it, and receptivity to it

Family and School Important agent of socialization,

because most people learn first from family Learn wide range of values If parents interested, learn to be

politically interested and informed If both parents identify with one

political party, kids tend to also identify with it

Religion stronger socialization than party because of regular activities

School Some believe schools have equal or

greater influence on political learning as parents Elementary schools teach kids about

nation’s slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior, and democratic decision making

In high school, kids learn to distinguish between political leaders and political institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the political process

College courses may teach students to question dominant political values and stimulate critical thinking

Community and Peers Community makeup determines

how political opinions of members formed Homogeneous communities exert

strong pressures to conform Peer groups sometimes can

provide defense against community pressures Adolescent and college peer groups

against parental opinion

Continuing Socialization

Political socialization a lifelong process

Adults rely more on peer groups and the media for political information

Adults gain perspective on government as they grow older

Social Groups and Political Values

Each person’s political socialization unique However, people with similar

backgrounds tend to have similar political opinions

Questions from the 2008 National Election Study (ANES) about abortion and the government guaranteeing employment good illustration Check out your views: http://IDEAlog.org

Figure 5.4 How Groups Differ on Two

Questions of Order and Equality

Education Education increases awareness

and understanding of political issues With regard to abortion, college-

educated individuals tend to choose personal freedom over social order

With regard to government programs to reduce income inequality, those with more education tend to choose personal freedom over equality

Income Most Americans consider

themselves to be “middle class” Wealth linked to opinions favoring a

limited government role in promoting equality, somewhat less with order

Groups with more income and higher education value freedom

Region Historically, regional differences

in political opinion important Fed by differences in wealth

Today, those in the South and Northwest more likely to favor restricting abortion

Those in the Northeast and West more supportive of government programs for income equalization

Race and Ethnicity Historically, those of different

races and ethnicities have tended to differ in their political values Immigrants in late 1800s and early

1900s tended to favor Democratic party

African-Americans initially Republican, but later Democratic

Today, minorities tend to have similar attitudes on equality issues

Religion Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly

stable since 1940s Today, population 56% Protestant

(conservative), 22% Catholic (moderate), 13% profess no religion, and less than 2% Jewish (Liberal)

Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes about social order Look at attitudes about abortion,

death penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research, human cloning, and the teaching of evolution or creationism

Gender Men and women differ on many

social and political issues Look at abortion, affirmative action,

government spending on social programs, death penalty, and going to war

“Gender gap” means women tend to favor Democrats

The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion Some believe terms liberal and

conservative no longer adequate However, political analysis requires

categories Most people don’t think of

themselves in ideological terms

The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion Differences in liberals and

conservatives used to be based on opinions about the role of government

Today, liberals associated with change and conservatives with tradition Liberals more likely to trade freedom

for equality Conservatives more likely to trade

freedom for order

Ideological Types in The U.S.

People’s preferences for government action depend on what the action targets

Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves the same way their responses do

Ideological tendencies reflect differences between different social groups

Figure 5.5Respondents Classified by Ideological

Tendencies

Forming Political Opinions

Studies show at least half of Americans knowledgeable about government and politics Some groups much less knowledgeable No ideological distinctions Are we politically ignorant?

Most people know if a policy will directly help or hurt them Self-interest principle Some use decision making “short cuts”

Political Leadership Public opinion on specific issues

affected by public perception of political leaders

Politicians make arguments based on shared ideology and self-interest Issue framing or “spin”

Politicians’ ability to influence public opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast media