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CIS 302 Introduction to Systems Analysis and Design Managing the Information Systems Project 2.3

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Page 1: Chapter 4

CIS 302Introduction to Systems

Analysis and Design

Managing the Information Systems Project

2.32.3

Page 2: Chapter 4

Learning Objectives

Discuss skills required to be an effective project manager

Describe skills and activities of a project manager during project initiation, planning, execution and closedown

Explain Gantt and Pert chartsReview commercial project

management software packages

2.42.4

Page 3: Chapter 4

Managing the Information Systems Project

Focus of project management To ensure that information system projects

meet customer expectations Delivered in a timely manner Meet constraints and requirements

2.52.5

Page 4: Chapter 4

Project Manager Systems Analyst responsible for

Project initiation Planning Execution Closing down

Requires diverse set of skills Management Leadership Technical Conflict management Customer relations

2.62.6

Managing the Information Systems Project

Page 5: Chapter 4

Project Management Process

Project Planned undertaking of related activities to reach

an objective that has a beginning and an end

Four Phases Initiation Planning Execution Closing down

2.72.7

Page 6: Chapter 4

Initiating the Project

1. Establish project initiation team

2. Establish relationship with customer

3. Establish project initiation plan

4. Establish management procedures

5. Establish project management environment and workbook

2.82.8

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Planning the Project

1. Describe project scope, alternatives and feasibility

Scope and Feasibility Understand the project What problem is addressed What results are to be achieved Measures of success Completion criteria

2.92.9

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Planning the Project

2. Divide the project into manageable tasks

• Work breakdown structure• Gantt chart

3. Estimate resources and create a resource plan.

4. Develop a preliminary schedule• Utilize Gantt and PERT charts

2.102.10

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Planning the Project

5. Develop a communication plan Outline communication processes among

customers, team members and management Types of reports Frequency of reports

6. Determine project standards and procedures Specify how deliverables are tested and

produced

2.112.11

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Planning the Project

7. Identify and assess risk Identify sources of risk Estimate consequences of risk

8. Create a preliminary budget9. Develop a statement of work

Describe what the project will deliver

10.Set a baseline project plan Estimate of project’s tasks and resources

2.122.12

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Executing the Project

1. Execute baseline project plan Acquire and assign resources Train new team members Keep project on schedule

2. Monitor project progress Adjust resources, budget and/or activities

2.132.13

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Executing the Project

3. Manage changes to baseline project plan

Slipped completion dates Changes in personnel New activities

4. Maintain project workbook

5. Communicate project status

2.142.14

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Closing Down the Project

1. Termination Types of termination

Natural Requirements have been met

Unnatural Project stopped

Documentation Personnel Appraisal

2.152.15

Page 14: Chapter 4

Closing Down the Project

2. Conduct post-project reviews Determine strengths and weaknesses of

Project deliverables Project management process Development process

3. Close customer contract

2.162.16

Page 15: Chapter 4

Representing and Scheduling Project Plans

Gantt Charts Useful for depicting simple projects or parts

of large projects Show start and completion dates for

individual tasks

PERT Charts Show order of activities

2.172.17

Page 16: Chapter 4

Comparison of Gantt and PERT Charts

Gantt Visually shows

duration of tasks Visually shows time

overlap between tasks

Visually shows slack time

PERT Visually shows

dependencies between tasks

Visually shows which tasks can be done in parallel

Shows slack time by data in rectangles

2.192.19

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Gantt and PERT Charts -- How to Proceed

Steps1. Identify each activity

Requirements Collection Screen Design Report Design Database Design User documentation Software programming Installation and testing

2.202.20

Page 18: Chapter 4

Gantt and PERT Charts -- Continued

2. Determine time estimates and expected completion times for each activity.

3. Determine sequence of activities

4. Determine critical path Sequence of events that will affect the final

project delivery date

2.212.21

Page 19: Chapter 4

Commercial Project Management Software

Many systems are available

Three activities required to use: Establish project start or end date Enter tasks and assign task relationships Select scheduling method to review project

reports

2.222.22

Page 20: Chapter 4

Summary

Skills of an effective project managerActivities of project manager Initiation Planning Execution Closedown

Gantt and PERT ChartsCommercial PM Software

2.232.23

Page 21: Chapter 4

Project Management:An Overview

Managing Operations

Page 22: Chapter 4

Agenda

Focus What is a Project? What is Project Management? Project Management Skills Why is Project Management Needed? Checklist for a Doomed Project Leading Contributors to Project Success The Cost of Failure: An Example

Page 23: Chapter 4

Objectives

Define a project.Describe the phases of a project.Define project management.List project management skills.Recognize the need for good project management.Identify various reasons for project success and failure.

Page 24: Chapter 4

Course Focus

We will focus on: IT project management, Skills needed to succeed and, The use of those skills for you career enhancement skills

As a program Manager, technical or business skills alone will not carry the day. You must have a combination of knowledge to be successful in this endeavor. This course will continue to expand and enhance your existing skills in those areas.

Page 25: Chapter 4

Why Businesses Exist.

First and foremost, businesses exist to maximize the value of their owners equity.

Non-profits may have a definition of “value” that is not based on monetary worth, but they do what they do to increase that value.

Successful businesses never loose this focus nor deviate from it in the development and execution of their business plans.Methodologies may vary but the goal is constant.

DO NOT FORGET THIS!

Page 26: Chapter 4

Vision and Strategies

Executives are tasked to develop Vision The Project manager is the tool to implement that Vision. What is the goal? Is it a strategic business goal or tactical objective?

Strategic considerations for the creation of Vision are many. The project manager must be given clear directions as to what that Vision is and a clear understanding of what the end result is.

The Project(s) must be defined.

Page 27: Chapter 4

So what makes a Project?Specific objectives – defines concisely what you are trying to do and what you will deliver….in detail. This will be to solve some problem.Schedule – define specifically the duration of the effortBudget – Identify what will be your budget and all variables and what you can and cannot control.Resources – Identify who will do the work and commitments that those resources will be available.

Page 28: Chapter 4

So what makes a Project?One-time series of efforts rather than ongoing. To build a web site is usually considered a project

that consists of multiple tasks. Sample Tasks requiring business leadership

Mission statement, Marketing plan, User thread definition, Finance, Business case analysis, others.

Sample Tasks requiring technical leadership Content creation, page design, software selection,

hardware selection, labor estimating, others.

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Characteristics of a Project

Sequence or phases of activitiesUnique (Non-repetitive)Simple and/or ComplexInter-related activitiesSpecific GoalSpecific Time-frameSpecified BudgetDefined Specifications

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Project Stages

ScopeDefinition

Scope Definition – Requirements & Business Analysis

Planning

Planning – Involves creating detailed, step by step plans

ExecutionExecution – Execute the plan and only the plan.

Closure

Closure – Project review with a detailed lessons learned.

Feedback

Feedback

Feedback Loops – During the Execution, as problems come up, take the issues back to the scope and planning stages as needed.

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Who are the Project Players?The Sponsor – The individual who has requested that the project be undertaken. They usually get or provide the funding and face the executives.

(Remember the golden rule: he who has the gold, rules)

The Stakeholders – Those who are affected by the project and its implementation,The Project Manager – The individual responsible for the management of the project.Project Team – The grunts. Individuals tasked to perform the work identified in the project plan.

Page 32: Chapter 4

Why is Project Management Needed?

To avoid High Failure rates and High Costs to the

Enterprise. 30% of IT projects never reach fruitful conclusion Waste–$75 billion annually 51% exceed budget by 189% and deliver only

74% functionality

The Project Manager is tasked to avoid these problems.On time, on budget, to specification

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Leading Contributors to Project Success

Effective Project ManagementFormal guidelinesAccountable sponsorsProject management skillsMeasurement systemsFormal prioritiesRegular communicationClear trackingAutomated tools

Page 34: Chapter 4

Why Projects

Fail

Lack of Scope Control

Poor requirements Definition

Schedule/Cost overruns

Page 35: Chapter 4

Leading Contributors to Project Failure

Undisciplined project managementPoor requirements gathering in the initial stages of a project.Poor communications between the IT and business side leading to different expectations.Uncontrolled changes in project scope…. scope creep.

Page 36: Chapter 4

The Project Manager

As a project manager, your execution of corporate strategy is accomplished by the efficient execution of individual projects.There are tactical and political issues with each project. You will need to face them and overcome those challenges.The primary skill that you will use is communications to those above you and those below you.Communication requires that you listen as well as speak.

Page 37: Chapter 4

The Project Manager

The key difference between a Program Manager and a Project Manager is usually a matter of scope and duration, depending on the corporation.

A Program Manager usually has duties that are more comprehensive than managing, building and delivering a single or integrated solution.

Program Management often entails managing and transitioning a series of projects from inception to operational support and management. This could cover all aspects of a product line or service, from marketing to ILS and everything in between.

Page 38: Chapter 4

The Project Manager

A Project Manager is usually tasked with a more limited scope of work with a more finite duration. That duration is scheduled and not

necessarily subject to market forces as is the case with a complete product line or program.

The following slides discuss Project Management though references will be made to Program Management in this context.

Page 39: Chapter 4

Project Management

FunctionsStaffing & Planning - A primary function of the Project Manager is to perform:

staffing analysis, staffing acquisition (via HR or subcontracts) and/or requirements analysis and;

plan the performance and execution of the project.

Organizing & Scheduling – Once the staffing and planning functions are identified, it is the project managers responsibility to organize those individuals into teams and schedule their work. This includes coordinating their work assignments with other Project and managers.

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Project Management

FunctionsDirecting & Controlling –day to day operational direction is usually needed and required.

As the project evolves, these skills become increasingly important.

Tools and techniques- The organization, scheduling and controlling, as well as performance capturing and knowledge management functions are the responsibility of the Project Manager.

Providing feed back to executive management is key to the overall strategic implementation process.

Page 41: Chapter 4

Planning & Leadership Model

VISION

STRATEGIES

TASKS

PROJECTSA project is a definable delegatable achievement and the key to entrepreneurial rather than bureaucratic behavior.

Listen > Learn > Help > Lead

Appreciative understanding

Leadership Model

Feedback for Improvement

Page 42: Chapter 4

Staffing and Planning

Develop a Plan Base the plan on System

Development/Life Cycle (SDLC) and other process Activities

Solicit Resources to Deliver System

Planning Considerations: What is required? What resources are needed? What is the duration? What are the dependencies?

Page 43: Chapter 4

Organizing and Scheduling

Identify the Roles and Responsibilities.Communicate with the Project Team - must understand tasks & dependencies.Identify the Deliverables.Prepare a Schedule to Match the Deadlines. Add resources Move deadlines Adjust scope

Page 44: Chapter 4

Directing and Controlling

PM acts as a Director or Leader

Makes Key Decisions

Motivates, Rewards - Traits of a Leader

Advises, Coordinates, Delegates & Appraises

Controls the Project...from Orientation to termination

Page 45: Chapter 4

Directing and Controlling

Manage the ProjectStatus reports and reviews - project walk-throughAssess skills needed

Lead the Project TeamInvolve team in planningTrack project using formal and informal methodsSet performance objectives and develop staff

Page 46: Chapter 4

The Project Manager Skills

A Project Manager is usually associated with having the following skills: Detail Oriented. Methodical. Able to multi-task Able to understand technical, business and

financial issues. Cognizant of political realities of the project.

Page 47: Chapter 4

Project Management for Information SystemsSo, what is a project?

A project has specific objectives, start and end dates, and a budget; requires resources; and has a definite life cycle.

Who is a project manager? Someone who manages the project, ideally, from conception

to completion.

Common project management software tool include. Microsoft Project [http://www.microsoft.com/office/project/default.htm]

Primavera [http://www.primavera.com/] Others

Page 48: Chapter 4

Project Management Certification Testing

As a word of caution. For those who plan to eventually get certified as a project manager, there are some differences in what the answer the certifiers want on a test and the realities of the working world.PMI and Gartner think that companies always have the project manager engaged during the first phases of a project (Requirements gathering). Don’t bet on it. Requirements gathered and requirement realities my be two different things entirely. Don’t be complacent.

Page 49: Chapter 4

Project Management for Information Systems

An IT project is different from non-IT project management because of the following:

the work is harder to specify, Requirements are more difficult to gather and, designers are often the implementers.

The two key factors that can make a project successful are;

Regular communication with all participants and sponsors and,

Tracking resources and their tasks

Page 50: Chapter 4

Most Projects Fail

30% of IT projects never reach fruitful conclusion.

$75 billion is wasted annually.

51% of projects exceed budget by 189% and deliver only74% functionality.

Reasons for this include: Undisciplined project management. Poor communication between IT and business side. Other reasons?

Page 51: Chapter 4

Don’t Forget

E-business isn’t just technology!

Simply having a working site doesn’t mean the project was a success.

Need to consider: Market reaction. Response to customer needs. On-time delivery, within budget and quality

objectives. Other ideas?

Page 52: Chapter 4

Summary

Program management

Components of a project

The interrelation of tasks

Page 53: Chapter 4

Break

Page 54: Chapter 4

Project Management

Scope Management

Page 55: Chapter 4

Week 4 - Learning ObjectivesScope Management

You should be able to:

Discuss the relationship between scope and project failure

Explain how projects are initiated and selected

Define activities, inputs, and outputs of scope initiation, planning, definition, verification

Prepare a project charter

Prepare a WBS

Page 56: Chapter 4

Scope Management

Processes needed to ensure that: project includes all required work project includes only required work

Product scope features and functions of product deliverables measured against product requirements

Project scope work that must be done to deliver them measured against project plan

Page 57: Chapter 4

Scope Management Processes

Project Initiation commitment to next phase

Scope Planning written scope statement

Scope Definition: WBS

Scope Verification: formal acceptance

Scope Change Control

Page 58: Chapter 4

Scope Initiation

New project, or, commitment to next phase of existing project

Inputs: product description/business need strategic plan/goals project selection criteria & methods expert judgment, historical information

Page 59: Chapter 4

Strategic Planning, Leading toProject Selection

Business strategy and goals

IT systems help companies compete

Identify and prioritize opportunities

Business Goals

Selected Projects

PotentialProjects

Business Needs

Page 60: Chapter 4

Methods for Project SelectionOrganizational Need Perspective

Perceived need? Likelihood of funding? Willingness to support?

Source, time, impact, priority problem opportunity directive

Financial Perspective

Page 61: Chapter 4

Financial Perspective

Cost/benefit analysis NPV - net present value ROI - return on investment Payback analysis

Limitations: difficulty of estimating

Weighted scoring model incorporates multiple criteria

Page 62: Chapter 4

Weighted Scoring Model

Determine criteria

Weight criteria by importance

Score each project on each criterion

Multiply scores by weights

Get overall score for each project

Select project with highest score

“What-if” analysis may be helpful

Page 63: Chapter 4

Scope Initiation Outputs

Project Charter Conceptual baseline

Project Manager selectedConstraints factors that will limit the team’s options e.g., fixed budget e.g., contractual provisions

Assumptions

Page 64: Chapter 4

Project Charter

Formalizes existence of project

Provides direction on objectives

Signoff by key project stakeholders

Charter Components:title, date

project manager

scope statement

summary of approach

roles and responsibilities matrix

sign-off

comments (assumptions, constraints)

Page 65: Chapter 4

Scope Planning

Inputs to planning = outputs of initiation description and charter constraints and assumptions product description and analysis cost/benefit analysis

Page 66: Chapter 4

Scope Planning Outputs

Written Scope Statement justification: business need product description project deliverables quantifiable criteria for success

Common understanding of project

Page 67: Chapter 4

Scope Definition

Decomposition of project into more manageable components sufficiently detailed for tasks, estimation

Helps improve estimation accuracyDefines a baseline for measurement and controlClarifies responsibilities

Page 68: Chapter 4

Work Breakdown StructureAnalysis of work needed to complete project

Hierarchical breakdown of tasks

Provides basis for planning and change control

Can be organized around products or phases

Work package is lowest, detailed level

Requires involvement of project team and customers

Helps identify needed coordination

Page 69: Chapter 4

Approaches to Preparing a WBS

Use formal templates if availableUse previous similar projects’ WBSTop-down

iteratively add levels of detail

Bottom-up team members identify detailed tasks tasks are aggregated and summarized creates buy-in by project team

Combination

Page 70: Chapter 4

WBS Principles

A unit of work appears only once

Each unit of work responsibility is assigned to one person

Clear scope of each unit of work

WBS reflects how work will be done serves project team first

Must be flexible to accommodate changes

Page 71: Chapter 4

Scope Verification

Formal acceptance by stakeholdersInputs: Work results from execution of project plan Product documentation

InspectionOutputs: documented level of completion documented acceptance

Page 72: Chapter 4

Scope Control and Project Failure

Project failure often due to scope getting out of control Did not understand requirements Or, allowed requirements to grow

On average, project scope increases 4-fold

“Requirements (scope) creep” users see potential for automation, ask for more users want new system for current jobs

Page 73: Chapter 4

Reducing IT Project Scope Creep

User involvement project selection: ensure sponsor easy access to project information users as member(s) of project team regular meetings with users co-location with users focus on completion dates prototyping, use cases, JAD, CASE

Page 74: Chapter 4

Project Considerations

Is infrastructure setup part of your project?Assumptions What are you counting on? These can be critical to identify Resources expected: equip/people, approvals Availability of partners, connections Delineate key limits:

System load: expect an maximum of 100 users

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Estimation

“Predictions are hard, especially about the future”, Yogi Berra

2 Types: Lucky or Lousy?

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Planning, Estimating, Scheduling

What’s the difference?

Plan: Identify activities. No specific start and end dates.

Estimating: Determining the size & duration of activities.

Schedule: Adds specific start and end dates, relationships, and resources.

Page 77: Chapter 4

Project Planning: A 12 Step Program

1) Set goal and scope

2) Select lifecycle

3) Set org./team form

4) Start team selection

5) Determine risks

6) Create WBS

7) Identify tasks

8) Estimate size

9) Estimate effort

10)Identify task dependencies

11)Assign resources

12)Schedule work

Page 78: Chapter 4

How To Schedule

1. Identify “what” needs to be done Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

2. Identify “how much” (the size) Size estimation techniques

3. Identify the dependency between tasks Dependency graph, network diagram

4. Estimate total duration of the work to be done The actual schedule

Page 79: Chapter 4

WBS & Estimation

How did you feel when I asked “How long will your project take?”

Not an easy answer to give right?

At least not if I were are real customer on a real project

How can you manage that issue?

Page 80: Chapter 4

Partitioning Your Project

You need to decompose your project into manageable chunks

ALL projects need this step

Divide & Conquer

Two main causes of project failure Forgetting something critical Ballpark estimates become targets

How does partitioning help this?

Page 81: Chapter 4

Work Breakdown Structure: WBS

Hierarchical list of project’s work activities2 Formats

Outline (indented format) Graphical Tree (Organizational Chart)

Uses a decimal numbering system Ex: 3.1.5 0 is typically top level

Includes Development, Mgmt., and project support tasks

Shows “is contained in” relationshipsDoes not show dependencies or durations

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WBS

Contract WBS (CWBS) First 2 or 3 levels High-level tracking

Project WBS (PWBS) Defined by PM and team members Tasks tied to deliverables Lowest level tracking

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A Full WBS Structure

Up to six levels (3-6 usually) such as

Upper 3 can be used by customer for reporting (if part of RFP/RFQ)Different level can be applied to different uses

Ex: Level 1: authorizations; 2: budgets; 3: schedules

Page 84: Chapter 4

WBS Chart Example

Page 85: Chapter 4

WBS Outline Example0.0 Retail Web Site1.0 Project Management2.0 Requirements Gathering3.0 Analysis & Design4.0 Site Software Development

4.1 HTML Design and Creation4.2 Backend Software

4.2.1 Database Implementation4.2.2 Middleware Development4.2.3 Security Subsystems4.2.4 Catalog Engine4.2.5 Transaction Processing

4.3 Graphics and Interface4.4 Content Creation

5.0 Testing and Production

Page 86: Chapter 4

WBS TypesProcess WBS

a.k.a Activity-oriented Ex: Requirements, Analysis, Design, Testing Typically used by PM

Product WBS a.k.a. Entity-oriented Ex: Financial engine, Interface system, DB Typically used by engineering manager

Hybrid WBS: both above This is not unusual Ex: Lifecycle phases at high level with component or feature-specifics

within phases Rationale: processes produce products

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Process WBS

Page 88: Chapter 4

WBS Types

Less frequently used alternatives Organizational WBS

Research, Product Design, Engineering, Operations

Can be useful for highly cross-functional projects

Geographical WBS Can be useful with distributed teams NYC team, San Jose team, Off-shore team

Page 89: Chapter 4

Work PackagesGeneric term for discrete tasks with definable end resultsTypically the “leaves” on the treeThe “one-to-two” rule

Often at: 1 or 2 persons for 1 or 2 weeks

Basis for monitoring and reporting progress Can be tied to budget items (charge numbers) Resources (personnel) assigned

Ideally shorter rather than longer Longer makes in-progress estimates needed These are more subjective than “done” 2-3 weeks maximum for software projects 1 day minimum (occasionally a half day) Not so small as to micro-manage

Page 90: Chapter 4

WBS

List of Activities, not Things

List of items can come from many sources SOW, Proposal, brainstorming, stakeholders, team

Describe activities using “bullet language” Meaningful but terse labels

All WBS paths do not have to go to the same level

Do not plan more detail than you can manage

Page 91: Chapter 4

WBS & Methodology

PM must map activities to chosen lifecycleEach lifecycle has different sets of activitiesIntegral process activities occur for all

Planning, configuration, testing

Operations and maintenance phases are not normally in plan (considered post-project)Some models are “straightened” for WBS

Spiral and other iterative models Linear sequence several times

Deliverables of tasks vary by methodology

Page 92: Chapter 4

WBS Techniques

Top-DownBottom-UpAnalogyRolling Wave 1st pass: go 1-3 levels deep Gather more requirements or data Add more detail later

Post-its on a wall

Page 93: Chapter 4

WBS Techniques

Top-down Start at highest level Systematically develop increasing level of

detail Best if

The problem is well understood Technology and methodology are not new This is similar to an earlier project or problem

But is also applied in majority of situations

Page 94: Chapter 4

WBS Techniques

Bottom-up Start at lowest level tasks Aggregate into summaries and higher levels Cons

Time consuming Needs more requirements complete

Pros Detailed

Page 95: Chapter 4

WBS Techniques

Analogy Base WBS upon that of a “similar” project Use a template Analogy also can be estimation basis Pros

Based on past actual experience Cons

Needs comparable project

Page 96: Chapter 4

WBS Techniques

Brainstorming Generate all activities you can think of that

need to be done Group them into categories

Both Top-down and Brainstorming can be used on the same WBSRemember to get the people who will be doing the work involved (buy-in matters!)

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WBS – Basis of Many Things

Network scheduling

Costing

Risk analysis

Organizational structure

Control

Measurement

Page 98: Chapter 4

WBS Guidelines Part 1

Should be easy to understandSome companies have corporate standards for these schemesSome top-level items, like Project Mgmt. are in WBS for each project

Others vary by project

What often hurts most is what’s missing Break down until you can generate accurate time & cost estimatesEnsure each element corresponds to a deliverable

Page 99: Chapter 4

WBS Guidelines Part 2

How detailed should it be? Not as detailed as the final MS-Project plan Each level should have no more than 7 items It can evolve over time

What tool should you use? Excel, Word, Project Org chart diagramming tool (Visio, etc) Specialized commercial apps

Re-use a “template” if you have one

Page 100: Chapter 4

Estimations

Very difficult to do, but needed oftenCreated, used or refined during

Strategic planning Feasibility study and/or SOW Proposals Vendor and sub-contractor evaluation Project planning (iteratively)

Basic process1) Estimate the size of the product2) Estimate the effort (man-months)3) Estimate the schedule NOTE: Not all of these steps are always explicitly performed

Page 101: Chapter 4

Estimations

Remember, an “exact estimate” is an oxymoron

Estimate how long will it take you to get home from class tonight On what basis did you do that? Experience right? Likely as an “average” probability For most software projects there is no such ‘average’

Most software estimations are off by 25-100%

Page 102: Chapter 4

Estimation

Target vs. Committed Dates Target: Proposed by business or marketing Do not commit to this too soon! Committed: Team agrees to this After you’ve developed a schedule

Page 103: Chapter 4

Estimation Methodologies

Top-down

Bottom-up

Analogy

Expert Judgment

Priced to Win

Parametric or Algorithmic Method Using formulas and equations

Page 104: Chapter 4

Top-down Estimation

Based on overall characteristics of project Some of the others can be “types” of top-down (Analogy, Expert

Judgment, and Algorithmic methods)

Advantages Easy to calculate Effective early on (like initial cost estimates)

Disadvantages Some models are questionable or may not fit Less accurate because it doesn’t look at details

Page 105: Chapter 4

Bottom-up Estimation

Create WBS

Add from the bottom-up

Advantages Works well if activities well understood

Disadvantages Specific activities not always known More time consuming

Page 106: Chapter 4

Expert Judgment

Use somebody who has recent experience on a similar projectYou get a “guesstimate”Accuracy depends on their ‘real’ expertiseComparable application(s) must be accurately chosen

Systematic

Can use a weighted-average of opinions

Page 107: Chapter 4

Estimation by Analogy

Use past project Must be sufficiently similar (technology, type, organization) Find comparable attributes (ex: # of inputs/outputs) Can create a function

Advantages Based on actual historical data

Disadvantages Difficulty ‘matching’ project types Prior data may have been mis-measured How to measure differences – no two exactly same

Page 108: Chapter 4

Priced to Win

Just follow other estimates

Save on doing full estimate

Needs information on other estimates (or prices)

Purchaser must closely watch trade-offs

Priced to lose?

Page 109: Chapter 4

Algorithmic Measures

Lines of Code (LOC)Function pointsFeature points or object pointsOther possible

Number of bubbles on a DFD Number of of ERD entities Number of processes on a structure chart

LOC and function points most common (of the algorithmic approaches)

Majority of projects use none of the above

Page 110: Chapter 4

Code-based Estimates

LOC Advantages Commonly understood metric Permits specific comparison Actuals easily measured

LOC Disadvantages Difficult to estimate early in cycle Counts vary by language Many costs not considered (ex: requirements) Programmers may be rewarded based on this

Can use: # defects/# LOC Code generators produce excess code

Page 111: Chapter 4

LOC Estimate Issues

How do you know how many in advance?

What about different languages?

What about programmer style?

Stat: avg. programmer productivity: 3,000 LOC/yr

Most algorithmic approaches are more effective after requirements (or have to be after)

Page 112: Chapter 4

Code Reuse & Estimation

Does not come for free

Code types: New, Modified, Reused

If code is more than 50% modified, it’s “new”

Reuse factors have wide range Reused code takes 30% effort of new Modified is 60% of new

Integration effort with reused code almost as expensive as with new code

Page 113: Chapter 4

Effort Estimation

Now that you know the “size”, determine the “effort” needed to build it

Various models: empirical, mathematical, subjective

Expressed in units of duration Man-months (or ‘staff-months’ now)

Page 114: Chapter 4

COCOMO

COnstructive COst MOdel Allows for the type of application, size, and “Cost Drivers”Outputs in Person MonthsCost drivers using High/Med/Low & include

Motivation Ability of team Application experience

Biggest weakness? Requires input of a product size estimate in LOC

Page 115: Chapter 4

Estimation Issues

Quality estimations needed early but information is limitedPrecise estimation data available at end but not needed

Or is it? What about the next project?

Best estimates are based on past experiencePolitics of estimation:

You may anticipate a “cut” by upper management

For many software projects there is little or none Technologies change Historical data unavailable Wide variance in project experiences/types Subjective nature of software estimation

Page 116: Chapter 4

Know Your Deadlines

Are they ‘Real Deadlines’? Tied to an external event Have to be met for project to be a success Ex: end of financial year, contractual deadline,

Y2K

Or ‘Artificial Deadlines’? Set by arbitrary authority May have some flexibility (if pushed)

Page 117: Chapter 4

Other Estimation Notes

Remember: “manage expectations”

Parkinson’s Law “Work expands to fill the time available”

The Student Syndrome Procrastination until the last minute (cram)