chapter 19
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapter 19
Financial Analysis and Planning
Mila Getmansky Sherman
Copyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Financial Analysis and
DecisionsSCH-MGMT
640
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Topics Covered
Financial StatementsExecutive Paper CorporationFinancial PlanningFinancial Planning ModelsGrowth and External Financing
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Executive Paper
Executive Paper Balacne Sheet (millions)
Dec Dec2004 2005 diff
Assets
Current AssetsCash & Securities 75 110 35Receivables 433.1 440 6.9Inventory 339.9 350 10.1
Total 848 900 52
Fixed AssetsP, P, E 929.5 1000 70.5accum Depr 396.7 450 53.3
Net Fixed Assets 532.8 550 17.2
Total Assets 1,380.80 1,450.00 69.2
Executive Paper Balacne Sheet (millions)
Dec Dec2004 2005 diff
Assets
Current AssetsCash & Securities 75 110 35Receivables 433.1 440 6.9Inventory 339.9 350 10.1
Total 848 900 52
Fixed AssetsP, P, E 929.5 1000 70.5accum Depr 396.7 450 53.3
Net Fixed Assets 532.8 550 17.2
Total Assets 1,380.80 1,450.00 69.2
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Executive Paper
Executive Paper Balacne Sheet (millions)
Dec Dec2004 2005 diff
Liabilities and Equity
Current LiabilitiesDebt due in 1 year 96.6 100.0 3.4Payable 349.9 360.0 10.1
Total current liabilities 446.5 460.0 13.5
Long term debt 425.0 450.0 25.0
Shareholders equity 509.3 540.0 30.7
Total liabilities and equity 1,380.80 1,450.00 69.2
Executive Paper Balacne Sheet (millions)
Dec Dec2004 2005 diff
Liabilities and Equity
Current LiabilitiesDebt due in 1 year 96.6 100.0 3.4Payable 349.9 360.0 10.1
Total current liabilities 446.5 460.0 13.5
Long term debt 425.0 450.0 25.0
Shareholders equity 509.3 540.0 30.7
Total liabilities and equity 1,380.80 1,450.00 69.2
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Executive Paper
Executive Paper - Other Data 2004 2005
Market value of equity 598 708
Average number of shares, millions 14.16 14.16
Share price, dollars 42.25 50
Executive Paper - Other Data 2004 2005
Market value of equity 598 708
Average number of shares, millions 14.16 14.16
Share price, dollars 42.25 50
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Executive Paper
Executive Paper Income Statement (2005)
$ millionsRevenues 2,200.00Costs 1,980.00
Depreciation 53.30EBIT 166.70Interest 42.50Tax 49.70Net income 74.50
Dividend 43.80Retained earnings 30.70Earnings per share, dollars 5.26Dividend per share, dollars 3.09
Executive Paper Income Statement (2005)
$ millionsRevenues 2,200.00Costs 1,980.00
Depreciation 53.30EBIT 166.70Interest 42.50Tax 49.70Net income 74.50
Dividend 43.80Retained earnings 30.70Earnings per share, dollars 5.26Dividend per share, dollars 3.09
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Executive Paper
Executive Paper Sources and Uses of Funds (2005)
Sources: $ millionsNet Income 74.50 Depreciation 53.30
Operating cash flow 127.80 Borrowing 25.00 Stock issues - Total sources 152.80
Uses:Increase in net working capital 38.50 Investment 70.50 Dividends 43.80 Total uses 152.80
Executive Paper Sources and Uses of Funds (2005)
Sources: $ millionsNet Income 74.50 Depreciation 53.30
Operating cash flow 127.80 Borrowing 25.00 Stock issues - Total sources 152.80
Uses:Increase in net working capital 38.50 Investment 70.50 Dividends 43.80 Total uses 152.80
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Leverage Ratios
L o n g t e r m d e b t r a t io =lo n g t e r m d e b t
lo n g t e r m d e b t + e q u i ty
D e b t e q u i t y r a t i o =l o n g t e r m d e b t + v a l u e o f l e a s e s
e q u i t y
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Leverage Ratios
Total debt ratio =total liabilities
total assets
Times interest earned =EBIT
interest payments
Cash coverage ratio =EBIT + depreciation
interest payments
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Liquidity Ratios
Net working capital
to total assets ratio=
Net working capital
Total assets
Current ratio =current assets
current liabilities
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Liquidity Ratios
Cash ratio =cash + marketable securities
current liabilities
Quick ratio =cash + marketable securities + receivables
current liabilities
Interval measure =cash + marketable securities + receivables
average daily expenditures from operations
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Efficiency Ratios
Asset turnover ratio =Sales
Average total assets
capital gnet workin average
sales= turnoverNWC
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Efficiency Ratios
Days' sales in inventory =average inventory
cost of goods sold / 365
Inventory turnover ratio =cost of goods sold
average inventory
Average collection period =average receivables
average daily sales
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Profitability Ratios
Return on assets =EBIT - tax
average total assets
Net profit margin =EBIT - tax
sales
Return on equity =earnings available for common stock
average equity
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Profitability Ratios
Plowback ratio =earnings - dividends
earnings
= 1 - payout ratio
Payout ratio =dividends
earnings
Growth in equity from plowback =earnings - dividends
earnings
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Market Value Ratios
Forecasted PE ratio =P
aveEPS
1
r - g0
1
=Di vEPS
x1
1
PE Ratio =stock price
earnings per share
Dividend yield =dividend per share
stock price
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Market Value Ratios
Market to book ratio =stock price
book value per share
Price per share = P =Div
r - g01
Tobins Q =market value of assets
estimated replcement cost
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Executive Paper Ratios
Executive PaperPaper
Industry
Leverage Ratios:Debt ratio 0.45 0.69Debt ratio (including short-term debt) 0.5 0.74Debt-equity ratio 0.83 1Times-interest-earned 5.2 2.6
Liquidity Ratios:
Net-working-capital-to-total assets 0.3 0.05Current ratio 2 1.4Quick ratio 1.2 0.8Cash ratio 0.2 0.05Interval measure 101.4 85.1
Executive PaperPaper
Industry
Leverage Ratios:Debt ratio 0.45 0.69Debt ratio (including short-term debt) 0.5 0.74Debt-equity ratio 0.83 1Times-interest-earned 5.2 2.6
Liquidity Ratios:
Net-working-capital-to-total assets 0.3 0.05Current ratio 2 1.4Quick ratio 1.2 0.8Cash ratio 0.2 0.05Interval measure 101.4 85.1
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Executive Paper Ratios (continued)
Executive PaperPaper
Industry
Efficiency Ratios:Sales-to-assets ratio 1.55 0.89Sales-to-net-working-capital 5.2 3.7Days in inventory 63.6 56.1Inventory turnover 5.7 6Average collection period (days) 72.4 40.6Receivable turnover 5 8.2
Profitability Ratios:Net profit margin 5.30% 6.50%Return on assets (ROA) 8.30% 3.80%Return on equity (ROE) 14.20% 1.70%Payout Ratio 0.60 0
Market-Value Ratios:Price-earning ratio (P/E) 9.50 13.8Dividend yield 6.20% 0Market-to-book ratio 1.30% 1.6
Executive PaperPaper
Industry
Efficiency Ratios:Sales-to-assets ratio 1.55 0.89Sales-to-net-working-capital 5.2 3.7Days in inventory 63.6 56.1Inventory turnover 5.7 6Average collection period (days) 72.4 40.6Receivable turnover 5 8.2
Profitability Ratios:Net profit margin 5.30% 6.50%Return on assets (ROA) 8.30% 3.80%Return on equity (ROE) 14.20% 1.70%Payout Ratio 0.60 0
Market-Value Ratios:Price-earning ratio (P/E) 9.50 13.8Dividend yield 6.20% 0Market-to-book ratio 1.30% 1.6
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The DuPont System
A breakdown of ROE and ROA into component ratios
equity
interest-tax-EBIT=ROE
assets
taxes-EBIT=ROA
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The DuPont System
ROA =sales
assetsx
EBIT - taxes
sales
assetturnover
profitmargin
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The DuPont System
ROE =assets
equityx
sales
assetsx
EBIT - taxes
salesx
EBIT - taxes - interest
EBIT - taxes
leverageratio
assetturnover
profitmargin
debtburden
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Common Size Balance SheetFor S&P Composite Index Firms during 2005
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Common Size Income StatementFor S&P Composite Index Firms during 2005
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Financial Ratios
2005 Ratios for selected firms
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Executive Paper
Financial Planning
1. Best case
2. Normal growth
3. Retrenchment
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Executive Paper
Financial Planning Models
Executive Paper - Latest & Proforma Income Statements
2005 2006 2010Revenue 2,200.0 2,640.0 5,474.0 Costs (90% of revenue) 1,980.0 2,376.0 4,927.0 Depreciation (10% of fixed assets) 53.3 55.0 114.0 EBIT 166.7 209.0 433.4 Interest (10% of LT debt) 42.5 45.0 131.3 Tax (40% of pretax profit) 49.7 65.6 120.8 Net Income 74.5 98.4 181.2 Operating cash flow 127.8 153.4 295.3
Executive Paper - Latest & Proforma Income Statements
2005 2006 2010Revenue 2,200.0 2,640.0 5,474.0 Costs (90% of revenue) 1,980.0 2,376.0 4,927.0 Depreciation (10% of fixed assets) 53.3 55.0 114.0 EBIT 166.7 209.0 433.4 Interest (10% of LT debt) 42.5 45.0 131.3 Tax (40% of pretax profit) 49.7 65.6 120.8 Net Income 74.5 98.4 181.2 Operating cash flow 127.8 153.4 295.3
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Executive Paper
Financial Planning Models
Executive Paper - Latest & Proforma Statemet of Cash Flows
2005 2006 2010Increase in NWC (NWC=20% of revenues) 38.5 88 182.5Invetment in fixed assets (FA=25% of revenues) 70.5 165 342.1Dividends (60% of net income) 44.7 59 108.7Total uses of funds 152.8 312 633.4External capital requried (Uses-operating CF) 25 158.6 338.1
Executive Paper - Latest & Proforma Statemet of Cash Flows
2005 2006 2010Increase in NWC (NWC=20% of revenues) 38.5 88 182.5Invetment in fixed assets (FA=25% of revenues) 70.5 165 342.1Dividends (60% of net income) 44.7 59 108.7Total uses of funds 152.8 312 633.4External capital requried (Uses-operating CF) 25 158.6 338.1
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Executive Paper
Financial Planning Models
Executive Paper - Latest & Proforma Balance Sheets
2005 2006 2010Net working capital (20% of revenues) 440.0 528.0 1,095.0 Net fixed assets (25% of revenues) 550.0 660.0 1,369.0 Total net assets 990.0 1,188.0 2,463.0 Long-term debt 450.0 608.6 1,651.0 Equity 540.0 579.4 812.0 Total long-term liabilities and equity 990.0 1,188.0 2,463.0
Executive Paper - Latest & Proforma Balance Sheets
2005 2006 2010Net working capital (20% of revenues) 440.0 528.0 1,095.0 Net fixed assets (25% of revenues) 550.0 660.0 1,369.0 Total net assets 990.0 1,188.0 2,463.0 Long-term debt 450.0 608.6 1,651.0 Equity 540.0 579.4 812.0 Total long-term liabilities and equity 990.0 1,188.0 2,463.0
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Growth and Retained Earnings
%98.3assetsnet
earnings retained rategrowth Internal
%98.3assetsnet
earnings retained rategrowth Internal
%98.3or 0398.
5455.1822.40.assetsnet
equityequity on returnratioplowback
assets
equity
equity
incomenet
incomenet
earnings retainedrate growth Internal
%98.3or 0398.
5455.1822.40.assetsnet
equityequity on returnratioplowback
assets
equity
equity
incomenet
incomenet
earnings retainedrate growth Internal
Executive Paper Growth
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