chapter 18 financial modeling and pro forma analysis
TRANSCRIPT
Chapter 18
Financial Modeling and Pro Forma Analysis
Chapter 18
Financial Modeling and Pro Forma Analysis
Chapter Outline
18.1 Goals of Long-Term Financial Planning
18.2 Forecasting Financial Statements: The Percent of Sales Method
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
18.4 Growth and Firm Value
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
Learning Objectives
Understand the goals of long-term financial planning
Create pro forma income statements and balance sheets using the percent of sales method
Develop financial models of the firm by directly forecasting capital expenditures, working capital needs, and financing events
Learning Objectives (cont’d)
Distinguish between the concepts of sustainable growth and value-increasing growth
Use pro-forma analysis to model the value of the firm under different scenarios, such as expansion
18.1 Goals of Long-Term Financial Planning
Identify important linkagesSales, costs, capital investment, financing, etc.
Analyze the impact of potential business plansPlan for future funding needs
18.2 Forecasting Financial Statements: The Percent of Sales Method
A forecasting method that assumes that balance sheet and income statement items grow proportionately with sales.Percent of sales remains constant in future
periods. Forecasts of balance sheet and income
statement items are made as a percent of the expected sales figure for that period.
Table 18.1 KMS Designs 2010 Income Statement and Balance Sheet
18.2 Forecasting Financial Statements: The Percent of Sales Method
KMS Designs forecasts 18% growth in sales from 2010 to 2011.
In 2010: Costs excluding depreciation were 78% of salesDepreciation was 7.333% of salesTax rate = 3,737 / 10,678 = 35%
For now, assume interest expense remains the same as 2010.
Table 18.2 KMS Designs’ Pro Forma Income Statement for 2011
Example 18.1 Percent of Sales
Problem KMS has just revised its sales forecast downward. If KMS
expects sales to grow by only 10% next year, what are its costs except for depreciation projected to be?
Example 18.1 Percent of Sales
Solution:Plan Forecasted 2011 sales will now be: 74,889 x (1.10) = 82,378.
With this figure in hand and the information from Table 18.1, we can use the percent of sales method to calculate its forecasted costs.
Example 18.1 Percent of Sales
Execute From Table 18.1, we see that costs are 78% of sales. With
forecasted sales of $82,378, that leads to forecasted costs except depreciation of $82,378 x (0.78) = $64,255.
Example 18.1 Percent of Sales
Evaluate If costs remain a constant 78% of sales, then our best
estimate is that they will be $64,255.
Example 18.1a Percent of Sales
Problem KMS has just revised its sales forecast downward. If KMS
expects sales to grow by only 7% next year, what are its costs except for depreciation projected to be?
Example 18.1a Percent of Sales
Solution:Plan Forecasted 2010 sales will now be: $74,889 x (1.07) =
$80,131. With this figure in hand and the information from Table 18.1, we can use the percent of sales method to calculate its forecasted costs.
Example 18.1a Percent of Sales
Execute From Table 18.1, we see that costs are 78% of sales. With
forecasted sales of $80,131, that leads to forecasted costs except depreciation of $80,131 x (0.78) = $62,502.
Example 18.1a Percent of Sales
Evaluate If costs remain a constant 78% of sales, then our best
estimate is that they will be $62,502.
18.2 Forecasting Financial Statements: The Percent of Sales Method
Pro Forma Balance SheetMake assumptions about how equity and debt
will grow with sales. The difference between Assets and L+E
indicates the net new financing to fund growth
Table 18.3 First-Pass Pro Forma Balance Sheet for 2010
18.2 Forecasting Financial Statements: The Percent of Sales Method
Making the Balance Sheet Balance: Net New FinancingManagement must choose new funding
Debt or equity.Complicated issues involved are covered in Chapter 16.
If debt is chosen, it will change the interest assumption on the pro forma income statement.
Table 18.4 Second-pass Pro Forma Balance Sheet for KMS
Example 18.2 Net New Financing
Problem If instead of paying out 30% of earnings as dividends, KMS
decides not to pay any dividend and instead retain all of its 2010 earnings, how will its net new financing change?
Example 18.2 Net New Financing
Solution:Plan KMS currently pays out 30% of its net income as dividends,
so rather than retaining only $5,758, it will retain the entire $8,226. This will increase stockholders’ equity, reducing the net new financing.
Example 18.2 Net New Financing
Execute: The additional retained earnings are $8,226-$5,758=$2,468.
Compared to Table 18.3, Stockholders’ equity will be $79,892+$2,468=$82,360 and Total Liabilities and Equity will also be $2,468 higher, rising to $100,999. Net new financing, the imbalance between KMS’ assets and liabilities and equity, will decrease to $8,396- $2,468 = $5,928.
Example 18.2 Net New Financing
Execute (cont'd):
Example 18.2 Net New Financing
EvaluateWhen a company is growing faster than it can
finance internally, any distributions to shareholders will cause it to seek greater additional financing. It is important not to confuse the need for external financing with poor performance. Most growing firms need additional financing to fuel that growth as their expenditures for growth naturally precede their income from that growth. We will revisit the issue of growth and value in Section 18.4.
Example 18.2a Net New Financing
ProblemIf instead of paying out 30% of earnings as
dividends, KMS decides to pay out 50% of earnings as dividends, how will its net new financing change?
Example 18.2a Net New Financing
Solution:Plan KMS currently pays out 30% of its net income as dividends,
so rather than retaining $5,758, it will retain $8,226 x 50% = $4,113. This will decrease stockholders’ equity, increasing the net new financing.
Example 18.2a Net New Financing
Solution:Execute: The reduction in retained earnings is $5,758-$4,113=$1,645.
Compared to Table 18.3, Stockholders’ equity will be $79,892 - $1,645=$78,247 and Total Liabilities and Equity will also be $1,645 lower, falling to $96,886. Net new financing, the imbalance between KMS’ assets and liabilities and equity, will increase to $8,396 + $1,645 = $10,041.
Example 18.2a Net New Financing
Execute (cont'd):
Year 2010 2011Balance Sheet ($000s)LiabilitiesAccounts Payable 11,982 14,139Debt 4,500 4,500Total Liabilities 16,482 18,639Stockholder's Equity 74,134 78,247Total Liabilities and Equity 90,616 96,886Net New Financing 10,041
Example 18.2a Net New Financing
EvaluateWhen a company is growing faster than it can
finance internally, any distributions to shareholders will cause it to seek greater additional financing. It is important not to confuse the need for external financing with poor performance. Most growing firms need additional financing to fuel that growth as their expenditures for growth naturally precede their income from that growth. We will revisit the issue of growth and value in Section 18.4.
18.2 Forecasting Financial Statements: The Percent of Sales Method
Choosing a Forecast TargetTarget specific ratios that the company wants or
needs to maintain.Debt covenants to maintain liquidity or interest
coverageInvestment, payout, and financing decisions are
linked togetherFinancial managers must balance these decisions Careful forecasting helps see consequences
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Percent of sales method ignores real-world “lumpy” investments in capacity.Can’t buy half of a factory, or add retail space by
the square foot. Added in one lump investment in new Property,
Plant and Equipment.Firms often make large investments that will
provide capacity for several years.
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Analyzing the effect of a planned expansion on firm value:
• Identify capacity needs and financing options• Construct pro forma income statements and
forecast future cash flows• Use forecasted free cash flows to assess the
impact of expansion
Table 18.5 KMS’s Forecasted Production Capacity Requirements
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Capital Expenditures for the ExpansionNew PP&E = $20 millionMust be purchased in 2011 to meet minimum
capacity requirementsKMS must invest $5 million each year to replace
depreciated equipmentAfter expansion, KMS must invest $8 million per
year for depreciation 2012-2015
Table 18.6 KMS’s Forecasted Capital Expenditures
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Financing the ExpansionKMS will fund recurring investment from operating cash
flowsKMS will finance the new equipment by issuing 10-year
coupon bonds with a coupon rate of 6.8%.
Interest in Year t = Interest Rate x Ending balance in year (t-1) (Eq. 18.1)
Table 18.7 KMS’s Planned Debt and Interest Payments
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
KMS Designs’ Pro Forma Income StatementValue of new investment opportunity comes
from future cash flows from investmentEstimate cash flows:
1. Project future earnings2. Consider working capital and investment needs and
estimate free cash flow3. Compute value of company with/without expansion.
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Forecasting Earnings
(Eq. 18.2)
Sales = Market Size x Market Share x Average Sales Price
Table 18.8 Pro Forma Income Statement for KMS Expansion
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Working Capital RequirementsIncreases in working capital reduce free cash
flowKMS Example:
We assume minimum cash requirements will remain 16% of sales, A/R = 19% of sales, Inventory = 20% of sales, A/P = 16% of sales as in 2010
*Excess cash is distributed as dividends.
Table 18.9 KMS Projected Working Capital Needs
18.3 Forecasting a Planned Expansion
Forecasting the Balance SheetWhen we forecast L+E>A, excess cash is
availableOptions:
Build extra cash reservesRetire debtDistribute excess as dividendsRepurchase shares
When L+E<A, additional financing is needed
Table 18.10 Pro Forma Balance Sheet for KMS, 2011
Table 18.11 Pro Forma Balance Sheets and Financing
18.4 Growth and Firm Value
Not all growth is worth the price. It is possible to pay so much for the growth that
the firm value declines. Other aspects of growth can leave the firm less
valuable:May strain managers’ ability to monitor. May surpass the firm’s distribution capabilities, quality
control or change perceptions of the firm and its brand.
18.4 Growth and Firm Value
Net IncomeInternal Growth Rate = 1 payout ratio
Beginning Assets
ROA retention rate
Net IncomeSustainable Growth Rate = 1 payout ratio
Beginning Equity
ROE retention rate
(Eq. 18.4)
(Eq. 18.5)
Example 18.3 Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Problem: Your firm has $70 million in equity and $30 million in debt
and forecasts $14 million in net income for the year. It currently pays dividends equal to 20% of its net income. You are analyzing a potential change in payout policy—an increase in dividends to 30% of net income. How would this change affect your internal and sustainable growth rates?
Example 18.3 Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Solution:Plan: We can use Eqs. 18.4 and 18.5 to compute your firm’s
internal and sustainable growth rates under the old and new policy. To do so, we’ll need to compute its ROA, ROE, and retention rate (plowback ratio). The company has $100 million (=$70 million in equity + $30 million in debt) in total assets.
Example 18.3 Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Plan (cont’d):
Net Income 14ROA= 14%
Beginning Assets 100
Net Income 14ROE= 20%
Beginning Equity 70
Old Retention Rate = (1-payout ratio) = (1-.20)=.80
New Retention Rate = (1-.30) = .70
Example 18.3 Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Execute:Using Eq. 18.4 to compute the internal growth rate
before and after the change, we have:Old Internal Growth Rate = ROA × Retention Rate = 14% ×
0.80 = 11.2%New Internal Growth Rate = 14% × 0.70 = 9.8%
Similarly, we can use Eq. 18.5 to compute the sustainable growth rate before and after:
Old Sustainable Growth Rate = ROE × Retention Rate = 20% × 0.80 = 16%
New Sustainable Growth Rate = 20% × 0.70 = 14%
Example 18.3 Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Evaluate: By reducing the amount of retained earnings available to
fund growth, an increase in the payout ratio necessarily reduces your internal and sustainable growth rates.
Example 18.3a Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Problem: Your firm has $100 million in equity and $40 million in debt
and forecasts $18 million in net income for the year. It currently pays dividends equal to 25% of its net income. You are analyzing a potential change in payout policy—an increase in dividends to 40% of net income. How would this change affect your internal and sustainable growth rates?
Example 18.3a Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Solution:Plan: We can use Eqs. 18.4 and 18.5 to compute your firm’s
internal and sustainable growth rates under the old and new policy. To do so, we’ll need to compute its ROA, ROE, and retention rate (plowback ratio). The company has $140 million (= $100 million in equity + $40 million in debt) in total assets.
Example 18.3a Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Plan (cont’d):
$1812.86%
$140
$1818.00%
$100
Net IncomeROA
Beginning Assets
Net IncomeROE
Beginning Equity
Old Retention Rate (1 - payout ratio) (1 - .25) .75
New Retention Rate (1 - .40) .60
Example 18.3a Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Execute:Using Eq. 18.4 to compute the internal growth rate
before and after the change, we have:Old Internal Growth Rate = ROA × Retention Rate = 12.86% ×
0.75 = 9.65%New Internal Growth Rate = 12.86% × 0.60 = 7.72%
Similarly, we can use Eq. 18.5 to compute the sustainable growth rate before and after:
Old Sustainable Growth Rate = ROE × Retention Rate = 18% × 0.75 = 13.5%
New Sustainable Growth Rate = 18% × 0.60 = 10.8%
Example 18.3a Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Evaluate: By reducing the amount of retained earnings available to
fund growth, an increase in the payout ratio necessarily reduces your internal and sustainable growth rates.
Example 18.3b Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Problem: Your firm has $100 million in equity and $40 million in debt
and forecasts $18 million in net income for the year. It currently pays dividends equal to 25% of its net income. You are analyzing a potential change in payout policy—the elimination of the dividend. How would this change affect your internal and sustainable growth rates?
Example 18.3b Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Solution:Plan: We can use Eqs. 18.4 and 18.5 to compute your firm’s
internal and sustainable growth rates under the old and new policy. To do so, we’ll need to compute its ROA, ROE, and retention rate (plowback ratio). The company has $140 million (= $100 million in equity + $40 million in debt) in total assets.
Example 18.3b Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Plan (cont’d):
$1812.86%
$140
$1818.00%
$100
Net IncomeROA
Beginning Assets
Net IncomeROE
Beginning Equity
Old Retention Rate (1 - payout ratio) (1 - .25) .75
New Retention Rate (1 - .40) .60
Example 18.3b Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Execute:Using Eq. 18.4 to compute the internal growth rate
before and after the change, we have:Old Internal Growth Rate = ROA × Retention Rate = 12.86% ×
0.75 = 9.65%New Internal Growth Rate = 12.86% × 1.00 = 12.86%
Similarly, we can use Eq. 18.5 to compute the sustainable growth rate before and after:
Old Sustainable Growth Rate = ROE × Retention Rate = 18% × 0.75 = 13.5%
New Sustainable Growth Rate = 18% × 1.0 = 18.0%
Example 18.3b Internal and Sustainable Growth Rates and Payout Policy
Evaluate: By increasing the amount of retained earnings available to
fund growth, a decrease in the payout ratio necessarily increases your internal and sustainable growth rates.
Table 18.12 Summary of Internal Growth Rate Versus Sustainable Growth Rate
18.4 Growth and Firm Value
Internal and sustainable growth rates are useful but they cannot tell you whether your planned growth increases or decreases the firm’s value. They do not evaluate future costs and benefits of the
growth.Growth greater than sustainable growth rate is not bad as
long as it is value increasing. Your firm will need to raise additional capital to finance the
growth.
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
Calculate the net present value of the increase in cash flows generated by the investment.
First, we calculate forecasted free cash flows. • Start with Net Income• Add additional tax shield from interest expense• Add back depreciation (not a cash expense)• Subtract changes in NWC and capital expenditures
Table 18.13 KMS Forecasted Free Cash Flow
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
KMS Designs’ Expansion: Effect on Firm ValueAbsent distress costs, the value of a firm with
debt is equal to the value of the firm without debt plus the present value of its interest tax shields.
Apply the same approach to valuing the expansion: Compute the present value of the unlevered free cash
flows.Add to it the present value of the tax shields created by
planned interest payments.Need to compute a continuation value.
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
Multiples Approach to Continuation ValueEBITDA multiple is most often used in practice.
Accounts for the firm’s operating efficiency Not affected by leverage differences between firms.
EBITDA at Horizon x EBITDA Multiple at Horizon
(Eq. 18.7)
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
KMS Designs’ value with the ExpansionKMS’ estimated unlevered cost of capital is 10%
(specifically, 10% is their pretax WACC).
TABLE 18.14 Calculation of KMS =Firm Value with the Expansion
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
KMS Designs’ value without the ExpansionWithout the expansion, KMS will be limited to its
capacity of 1,100 units.
TABLE 18.15 Sales Forecast Without Expansion
Table 18.16 KMS’ Value Without the Expansion
Firm value is almost $60 million less without the expansion.
18.5 Valuing the Expansion
Optimal timing and the Option to DelayIf the alternatives are to expand in 2011 or not
to expand, KMS should expand.However, if expansion can be delayed, we can
repeat the analysis for each year from 2011 to 2015.
Chapter Quiz
1. How does long-term financial planning support the goal of the financial manager?
2. What are the three main things that the financial manager can accomplish by building a long-term financial model of the firm?
3. How does the pro forma balance sheet help the financial manager forecast net new financing?
4. What is the advantage of forecasting capital expenditures, working capital, and financing events directly?
Chapter Quiz (cont’d)
5. What role does minimum required cash play in working capital?
6. If a firm grows faster than its sustainable growth rate, is that growth value decreasing?
7. What is the multiples approach to continuation value?
8. How does forecasting help the financial manager decide whether to implement a new business plan?