chapter 17 fiscal policy. fiscal policy and the budget process fiscal policy is the government’s...
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Fiscal Policy and the Budget Process
Fiscal policy is the government’s policy with respect to its budget position (G-T)
Ceteris paribus, big budget deficits (G>T) are stimulative, adding demand to the economy
Big budget surpluses (G<T) are contractionary, taking demand out of the economy
Fiscal Policy and the Budget Process
US budget process Congress and the President come up with
the plan for taxing and spendingBudget covers one year
Fiscal Policy and the Budget Process
Deficit is a one year shortfall National debt – the cumulative effect of
years of deficitsIf there were deficits in previous years,
there will be interest that has to be paid on the national debt
Interest is paid to the bondholders
Fiscal Policy and the Budget Process
If the government doesn’t pass a budget The Treasury department couldn’t pay the
interest on that debtThe government would default on its debt
obligationsThis has never happened in the U.S.
Fiscal Policy and the Budget Process
Such a default would Undermine confidence of lendersThis makes it harder for a nation to get
capital flows into their countryThis is an issue for many developing
nations, as we will see later
Implementation of Fiscal Policy
If there is unemployment,
Government can change its budget position to stimulate the economy
It can raise G,
or cut T,
or both
In order to move AD right
A carefully planned intervention
Can move the economy to full employment
May cause inflation due to the shape of the AS line
May cause other problems, too
17.2.2
When the government runs a deficit,
it has to make up the difference by borrowing
The source for the borrowing is the capital market
We’ve always used DI for the demand for private investments
Now, we have the government’s demand for capital to cover its debts, which we’ll call DG
This additional demand
causes higher interest rates
Some private investors may not borrow to do projects they would have done,
because the higher interest rates make the project less worthwhile
Economists call this crowding out
17.2.3 The crowding-out effect
Figure 17.2.3 - Crowding-Out Effect
r
Q$
S
r1
r0
I0=TQ0 TQ1
DI
DI + DG
Amount that Gov.Borrowing Droveup Interest Rate
I1
Amount Of Private Investment CrowdedOut by Government Borrowing
Capital to PrivateInvestment:
Before Gov. Entry
After Gov. Entry
.
Capital to Gov.
Before the government entry,
the interest rate was r0,
total capital was TQ0
Since all capital was going toward private investment,
private investment, I0 , was equal to TQ0
With the government entry due to the budget deficit,
interest rates rise to r1,
and total capital exchanged moves out to TQ1
However, private investment at the new rate of r1 is only I1
you lose investment from I0 to I1
we say this investment is “crowded out”
Understand that
private investor’s demand has not changed
The higher interest rate just makes fewer investments worthwhile
The size of the crowding out effect depends on
the elasticity of the capital supply curve
Inelastic - large crowding out
Elastic - small crowding out
Figure 17.2.4 - Elasticity of Capital Supply and the Size of the Crowding-Out Effect - Cases
r
Q$
S
Elastic Case Inelastic Case
DI
I1 I0
+ DGDI
r1
r0
r
Q$
S
DI
I1 I0
+ DGDI
r1
r0
17.2.4
Governments demanding capital due to big budget deficits may bring other changes
If suppliers think this budget deficit is a wise policy,
then their confidence may increase the supply of capital to the nation’s capital markets
This may diminish the crowding-out effect
However,
If the government’s budget deficits seem irresponsible,
and suppliers seem less confident,
their withdrawal of capital may raise interest rates even further and make
the crowding-out effect and fall in I even greater
17.2.5
The government budget position will also have an effect on
international capital flows
These flows will, in turn, affect the trade balance
Figure 17.2.5 - Government Borrowing and the Exchange Rate, Ceteris Paribus
r
Q$
S
DI
+ DGDI
r1
r0
$
S
D
Q0 Q1
D'
C
0C
1C
Suppose, ceteris paribus,
The U.S. government runs a big budget deficit
Higher interest rates cause some capital to flow into the U.S.
The demand for dollar increases, the supply of Euros increases, and
the dollar becomes strongerMore imports, less exports, and AD moves
back leftward
17.2.6
All these problems (crowding out, higher interest rates, stronger dollar, etc.)
can be avoided if the Fed is willing to expand the money supply
This is called monetization of the deficit
The problem with this is that,
as with any money supply expansion,
it may set off inflation
17.3.1
Non-interventionists argue that
using expansionary fiscal policy isn’t necessary
They think unemployment will fix itself, as demand deficient unemployment
leads to lower wages, which move AS downward
17.3.2
Non-interventionists feel expansionary fiscal policy is not only unnecessary,
but fruitless and distortingIn trying to move AD right by running budget
deficits, crowding out will cause I to fall (moving AD
left) and cause a stronger dollar which increase
M and decreases X (also moving AD left)
Further,
If the these problems are small, or if the Fed works to offset them,
you get the risk of inflation or a wage-price spiral
17.3.3
Interventionists feel fiscal policy is a powerful tool
which can help millions who are suffering in a sluggish economy
They contend that “waiting for markets to adjust”
is not helpful, and non-intervention is naive
17.3.4
Non-interventionists point out that
fiscal policy is especially difficult to implement
because of political considerations
Fiscal policy is not only determined by the President,
but by 535 members of Congress
At least monetary policy is in the hands of a small body (Fed) and one chairman (Bernanke)
Every politician wants to
cut taxes and
get more government spending in their particular district
This is politically popular, but the aggregate of these micro choices lead towards a macro tendency of deficit spending
Some non-interventionists feel
the only way to overcome this is to have
a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget
This is similar to the idea of a gold standard with monetary policy, because it restricts
government’s ability to influence the economy
17.3.5
Interventionists feel that locking fiscal policy into a balanced budget is foolish
Things come up that demand changes in government spending
Ex. Pearl Harbor, 9/11
17.3.6
Most policy debates are centered around different philosophical positions
Interventionists have little faith in the markets to self-correct due to things like market power and market failure
Non-interventionists have little faith in the government’s ability to solve problems