chapter 10 balance of payments (bop)hallagan/econs327/weeks/week8/...(2) y also = c + s + t in (2)...
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Chapter 10Balance of Payments (BOP)
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In Current DollarsBalance of Payments (BOP)
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Recent Current Account DataBalance of Payments (BOP)
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Current Accounts and Trade Balancessee Economist (pdf)
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USWheat
$$$$$
Credit(+)
Oil
$$$$$
Debit (-)
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US Import and Exports of Goods and Services
-4000000
-3000000
-2000000
-1000000
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Exports
Imports
BalanceTrade
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US$$$$$
Credit(+)
$$$$$
Debit (-)
Income Received from foreigners
Income Paid to foreigners
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US Income Received, Paid, Balance on Income
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Income Received
Income Paid
Income Balance
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USUS Assets(bonds, t bills)
$$$$$
Credit(+)
Foreign Assets
$$$$$
Debit (-)
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US Capital/Financial Account
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Trill
ion
s
U.S.-owned assets abroad
Foreign-owned assets in the United States
Capital Account Balance
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Causation
• Do financial inflows (foreign investment attracted by high returns in the US) cause the US current account deficit?
• Does high US import demand and the resulting current account deficit cause the capital account surplus?
• Simultaneity
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Circular Flow
$$$ that leave the US come back. The flows on the current account are jointly determined.
The more $$$ earned by the US from exports will reduce the $$$ available in the world to buy US assets.
The more $$$ that enter the US to buy US assets wil reduce the $$$ available to buy US exports.
US Wheat
$$$$$
Credit(+)
Oil
$$$$$
Debit (-)
USUS Assets(bonds, t bills)
$$$$$
Credit(+)
Foreign Assets
$$$$$
Debit (-)
Current Account
Capital Account
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US Current and Capital Account Balances
-1000000
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Capital Account Balance
US Current Account
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What does a Current Account Deficit (Surplus) Mean?
• Total debits will always equal total credits
– If the current account registers a deficit, the capital and financial account must register a surplus, or net capital/financial inflow
– If the current account registers a surplus, the capital and financial account must register a deficit, or net capital/financial outflow
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Economic Meaning of the Current Account
(1) Y = C + I + G + (X-M)
In (1), aggregate income equals aggregate spending
(2) Y also = C + S + T
In (2) aggregate income goes either to consumption
savings, or taxes.
Since (1) and (2) are both Y, we get (3)
(3) C + I + G + (X-M) = C + S + T
After some rearranging we get (4)
(4) (X-M) = (T-G) + (S-I)
• Y=aggregate income
• C=consumption spending
• I=investment spending
• G=government spending
• X=exports
• M=imports
• T=taxes
• S=domestic saving
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Economic Meaning of the Current Account
(4) (X-M) = (T-G) + (S-I)
In (4)
(X-M) is the current account balance (For US <0)
(T-G) is the government budget balance (For US<0)
(S-I) is the excess of savings over investment (For US<0)
This approach highlights the role that low US private Savings and the US government budget deficitplay in causing the current account deficit.
• Y=aggregate income
• C=consumption spending
• I=investment spending
• G=government spending
• X=exports
• M=imports
• T=taxes
• S=domestic saving
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Savings, investment, Current Account
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Savings, investment, Current Account
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Is a Current Account Deficit a Problem?
• Benefit of a current account deficit
– Ability to push current spending beyond current production
– Cost of debt service
– Debt: Good or bad for a nation?
• Is the deficit used to finance more consumption or more investment?
• Drivers of U.S. current account deficits in the 1980s and 1990s
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Can the United States Continue to Run Current Account Deficits?
– U.S. as an attractive investment destination
– U.S. Debt is denominated in US $• See article by Poole
– Threats• Emergence of the Euro as a close substitute for the US $.
Foreigners could “dump” their $ denominated assets fearing that the value of the $ will fall
• Macro economic adjustments to a decrease in the value of the $.
– Imports (e.g. oil) more expensive
– US interest rate hikes to reduce inflation and maintain value of the $
• (see article by Bergsten)
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United States as a Debtor Nation
• Early stages of its industrial development – Net international debtor
• After World War I– Net international creditor
• By 1987– Net international debtor ($23 billion), for the first
time since World War I
– Net international debtor since then
– Foreign inflows; issue of propriety
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United States as a Debtor Nation
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United States as a Debtor Nation
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US and Foreign Assets