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Page 1: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Chapter 1

Page 2: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 monthsPer cent

-0,5

0,0

0,5

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2,5

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maj

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jul-10

Finanskrisen startar

Lehman-kraschen

Greklands-krisen

Source: BloombergChart 1:1

Start of the

financial crisis

Lehman Greece

Page 3: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Swedish and international stress index

Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 1:2

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

jan-07

apr-07

jul-07

okt-07

jan-08

apr-08

jul-08

okt-08

jan-09

apr-09

jul-09

okt-09

jan-10

apr-10

jul-10

International stress index Swedish stress index

Lehman Brothers

Bear Sterns

Greece

Page 4: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The difference between interest rates on ten year government bonds and the German government bond with the same maturityBasis points

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart: 1:3

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 apr-09 jul-09 okt-09 jan-10 apr-10 jul-10

Ireland Sweden Portugal Spain Greece

Page 5: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Implied stock market volatilityPer cent, 10 day moving average

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Sweden - OMX Europe - STOXX USA - S&P 500 Historical average, OMX

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:4

Page 6: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

CDS-premiums on European governments and corporationsBasis points

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

okt-09 nov-09 dec-09 jan-10 feb-10 mar-10 apr-10 maj-10 jun-10

SovX (governments) iTraxx (companies)

Source: BloombergChart 1:4

Page 7: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Government CDS premiums Basis points

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09 jun-09 aug-09 okt-09 dec-09 feb-10 apr-10 jun-10

Ireland Sweden Portugal Spain Greece

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:6

Page 8: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Stock market developmentsIndex, 1 January 2008 =100

Sources: Reuters EcoWin Chart 1:7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

Sweden - OMXS30 USA - S&P 500 Europe - STOXX Emerging markets - MSCI EM

Page 9: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Risk premiums on the interbank market, 3 monthsBasis points

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

USA Euro area UK Sweden

Soure: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:8

Page 10: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Central banks balance sheetsPer cent of GDP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

ECB Bank of England Federal Reserve The Riksbank

Sources: Respective central bankChart 1:9

Page 11: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Federal Reserve balance sheetUSD billions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

aug-07 dec-07 apr-08 aug-08 dec-08 apr-09 aug-09 dec-09 apr-10 aug-10

Total Assets Securities Held Outright All Liquidity Facilities

Source: Federal ReserveChart 1:10

Page 12: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The Riksbank loans and the guaranteeprogramme’s outstanding volumesSEK billion

Sources: The Riksbank and Swedish National Debt OfficeChart 1:11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

okt-

08

mar

-09

aug-

09

jan-

10

jun-

10

nov-

10

apr-

11

sep-

11

feb-

12

jul-12

dec-

12

maj

-13

okt-

13

mar

-14

aug-

14

jan-

15

jun-

15

Issuance in SEK guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office

Issuance in foreign currency guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office

The Riksbank's SEK lending

The Riksbank's USD lending (in SEK)

Page 13: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Budget balance in selected EU countriesPercentage of GDP

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Sweden

Source: Reuters EcowinChart B1

Page 14: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

CDS premiums (5 years) for selected EU countriesBasis points

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

aug-08 dec-08 apr-09 aug-09 dec-09 apr-10 aug-10

Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain

Source: Reuters EcowinChart B2

Page 15: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Difference between yields on mortgage bonds and govermnent bond yields with five year maturityBasis points

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 1:12

Page 16: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The difference between the interbank rate and the expected policy rate of different maturitesBasis points

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:13

Page 17: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Indicative breakdown of the Swedish riskpremium, 3 monthsBasis points

Source: The RiksbankChart 1:14

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

dec-06 jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09 jun-10

Credit risk premium Liquidity risk premium

Page 18: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread, 5 yearsBasis points

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11

Source: BloombergChart 1:15

Page 19: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Credit spreads for US corporate bondsBasis points

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart: 1:16

0

200

400

600

800

1000

jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11-300

200

700

1200

1700

2200

Aaa (left scale) Bbb (left scale) High yield (right scale)

Page 20: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Credit spreads for European corporate bondsBasis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Aaa (left scale) Bbb (left scale) High yieald (right scale)

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:17

Page 21: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Chapter 2

Page 22: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The Swedish Banks lending per borrower categorySeptember 2009, per cent of total lending

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 2:1

Households ; 40%

Companies excluding property companies;

18%

Property companies; 43%

Page 23: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The Swedish Banks lending per geographical area September 2009, per cent of total lending

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 2:2

Sweden; 50%

Other Nordic countries; 35%

Baltic countries; 5%

Other countries; 9%

Page 24: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Household borrowing from monetary financial institutionsAnnual percentage change

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

dec-95 dec-98 dec-01 dec-04 dec-07 dec-10

Three month, y-o-y Annual percentage change

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:3

Page 25: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Mortgage equity witdrawals, percentage of disposable incomePer cent

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sweden United Kingdom Australia

Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:4

Page 26: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

House pricesPurchase Price Coefficient

0,9

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11

K/T ratio Seasonal adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:5

Page 27: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Tenant-owned apartment prices, three-month moving averageSEK per square metre

Source: www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:6

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sweden Stockholm regionGöteborg region Malmö regionSweden, exculding metropolitan areas

Page 28: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Time to sale in SwedenNumber of days, median

Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

Single-family dwellings Tenant-owned apartments

Page 29: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Number of housing starts

Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:8

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Page 30: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Household debt and post-tax interest expenditurePercentage of disposable income

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)

Page 31: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Households' debt ratio in a number of municipalities and in SwedenPer cent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Vaxh

olm

Velling

e

Dande

ryd

Simris

hamn

Kung

sbacka

Öste

råke

r

Valle

ntun

a

Värm

Strömsta

dEk

erö

Rike

t

Perst

orp

Färgela

nda

Mullsj

ö

Mun

kfors

Berg

Filipsta

dMalå

Öve

rkali

x

Storum

an

Dorotea

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:10

Page 32: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Breakdown of households' new mortgages by fixed interest periodsPer cent

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Variable rate Fixed rate < 5 years Fixed rate > 5 years

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:11

Page 33: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Disposable income of households, final consumption expenditure and savingsSEK million

Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Page 34: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investmentAnnual percentage change

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investment

Forecast borrowing FSR 2010:2

Fixed gross investment

Forecast investments MPR February 2010

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:13

Page 35: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and their securities fundingSEK Billion

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Swedish credit institutions Debt securities in Sweden Foreign credit institutionsDebt securities abroad Trade credits

Source: The RiksbankChart 2:14

Page 36: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companiesRatio

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart: 2:15

Page 37: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companiesPer cent

0

3

6

9

12

dec-

99

dec-

00

dec-

01

dec-

02

dec-

03

dec-

04

dec-

05

dec-

06

dec-

07

dec-

08

dec-

09

dec-

10

50

55

60

65

70

75

Profitability (left hand side) Debt/total assets ratio (right hand side)

Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:16

Page 38: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Breakdown of corporate borrowing by period of fixed interestPer cent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Less than 1 year Between 1 and 5 years More than 5 years

Sources: RiksbankenChart 2:17

Page 39: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Expected default frequency (EDF), outcome och forceastPer cent

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

EDF Forecast FSR 2010:1 Forecast FSR 2009:2

Sources: Moody´s KMV och RiksbankenChart 2:18

Page 40: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Transaction volumes in the Swedish commercial property marketSEK billion

Sources: Savills and the RiksbankChart 2:19

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Swedish investors Foreign investorsSwedish investors Q 2-4 2010 Foreign investors Q 2-4 2010

Page 41: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Real prices of office premises in city centresIndex, 1981 = 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö

Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:20

Page 42: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Average yield levels for modern office premises in city centresPer cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

dec-86 dec-89 dec-92 dec-95 dec-98 dec-01 dec-04 dec-07 dec-10

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Five-year government bond yield

Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:21

Page 43: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Component factors for annual change in prices for offices in central StockholmPer cent

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Implicit risk premium Rents Ten-year Government bond yield

Short-term rent expectations Annual change in prices

Sources: Newsec, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:22

Page 44: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Vacancy rate for office premises in city centresPer cent

0

5

10

15

20

25

dec-88 dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10

Stockholm Göteborg Malmö

Source: NewsecChart 2:23

Page 45: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The property companies’ credit structureSEK million

Sources: Reports of the 17 property comp. listed on the NASDAQ OMX Stockholm A-list, q4, 2009 and the Riksbank.Chart 2:24

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

0-1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years > 5 years

jun-09 dec-09

Page 46: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

GDP in the Nordic countries and GermanyQuarterly changes in per cent

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

mar jun sep dec mar jun sep dec mar jun sep dec

2007 2008 2009

Denmark Norway Finland Germany

Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:25

Page 47: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Households’ borrowingsAnnual percentage change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany

Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:26

Page 48: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Real house prices in the Nordic countries and GermanyIndex, March 2004 = 100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09 mar-10

Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany

Sources: the BIS Database, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:27

Page 49: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Companies’ borrowingsAnnual percentage change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany

Sources: The ECB and national statistics agenciesChart 2:28

Page 50: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Corporate defaultsTwelve-month moving average, index, average year 2007 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany

Sources: National statistics agencies and the RiksbankChart 2:29

Page 51: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Expected default frequency for companies in the Nordic countries and GermanyPer cent

0

1

2

3

jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

Sweden (355) Denmark (119) Norway (177)Finland (116) Germany (656)

Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:30

Page 52: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Expected default frequency for property companies in the Nordic countries and GermanyPer cent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

maj

-08

jul-08

sep-

08

nov-

08

jan-

09

mar

-09

maj

-09

jul-09

sep-

09

nov-

09

jan-

10

mar

-10

Sweden (19) Denmark (10) Norway (7) Finland (6) Germany (64)

Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:31

Page 53: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

GDPAnnual percentage change

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:32

Page 54: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Nominal wagesAnnual percentage change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:33

Page 55: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

UnemploymentPer cent

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: EurostatChart 2:34

Page 56: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Terms of tradeIndex: March 2000 = 100

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:35

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

mar

-00

nov-

00

jul-01

mar

-02

nov-

02

jul-03

mar

-04

nov-

04

jul-05

mar

-06

nov-

06

jul-07

mar

-08

nov-

08

jul-09

mar

-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 57: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Current accountPercentage of GDP

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09 dec-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart: 2:36

Page 58: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Harmonised index for consumer pricesAnnual percentage change

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:37

Page 59: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Real exchange ratesIndex, 2000 = 100

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09 dec-10

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: BISChart:2:38

Page 60: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Liabilities from banks operating in the Baltic countries to foreign financial institutionsNational currencies; Index, December 2008 = 100

Sources: National central banksChart: 2:39

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

mar

-07

jun-

07

sep-

07

dec-

07

mar

-08

jun-

08

sep-

08

dec-

08

mar

-09

jun-

09

sep-

09

dec-

09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 61: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Household borrowingAnnual percentage change

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:40

Page 62: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Corporate borrowingAnnual percentage change

-20

0

20

40

60

jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:41

Page 63: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Households´and companies´debts in relation to GDPPer cent

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden

Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcowinChart 2:42

Page 64: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Late paymentsPer cent of outstanding loans

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

dec-

00

dec-

01

dec-

02

dec-

03

dec-

04

dec-

05

dec-

06

dec-

07

dec-

08

dec-

09

dec-

10

Estonia (more than 60 days) Latvia (more than 90 days)Lithuania (more than 60 days)

Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission och Lietuvos BankasChart 2:43

Page 65: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

HousepricesIndex, January 2006 = 100

Sources: Latio, Ober Haus, Arco Real Estate Land Board and Lietuvos BankasChart 2:44

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 66: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Chapter 3

Page 67: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The major Swedish banks' assets and liabilities per currency, December 2009SEK billion

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:1

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

SEK EUR USD GDP Sweden 2009

Assets

Assets

Assets

Liabilites

Liabilites

Liabilites

Page 68: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The total assets of the major Swedish banks in Sweden and abroad, March 2010SEK billion

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Summa

Sweden Abroad

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:2

Total

Page 69: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The banks' earningsSEK billion, rolling four quarters

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

mars 06 mars 07 mars 08 mars 09 mars 10

Net interest income Net commission income

Net result of financial items Other income

Page 70: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Profit before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major Swedish banksTotalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 March 2010

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:4

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10

Profit before loan losses Loan losses, net

Page 71: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Annual lending growth at the major Swedish banksPer cent

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:5

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

05:4 06:2 06:4 07:2 07:4 08:2 08:4 09:2 09:4 10:2

Page 72: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Net interest income in relation to interest-bearing assets, the net interest income marginPer cent

1,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

97:4 98:4 99:4 00:4 01:4 02:4 03:4 04:4 05:4 06:4 07:4 08:4 09:4 10:4

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:6

Page 73: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The major Swedish banks' securities-related net commission income, Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover and the stock market indexIndex, Q 1 2003 = 100

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

03:1 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1 09:1 10:1

Asset management-related income OMX index Turnover OMX Brokerage income

Source: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the RiksbankChart 3:7

Page 74: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Allocation of total assetsPer cent, December 2009

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank

Loans to public Loans to credit institutions Debt securities Derivatives Other assets

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:8

Page 75: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Swedish major banks' lending in the Baltic countries Left axis EUR billion, right axis per cent

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

07:1 07:2 07:3 07:4 08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Lending to the public (left axis) Annual percentage change (right axis)

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:9

Page 76: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Market shares of lending in the Baltic countriesPer cent, March 2010

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Estonia Latvia LithuaniaSwedbank SEB Nordea ÖvrigaOther

s

Page 77: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Geographical distribution of loan losses, in the period second quarter 2009 to first quarter 2010Per cent

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:11

19%

49%

22%

10%

Sweden Other Nordic countries excl Sweden The Baltic countries Other countries

Page 78: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Loan losses per quarterPercentage of lending at the start of the respective quarters

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1

Group provisions Individual provisions Write-offsReversals Recoveries Loan-loss level

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:12

Page 79: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Capital ratios of Swedish and international banksPer cent

Source: Standard & Poor’sChart 3:13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nordea

HSBC

Holding

s

DnB NO

R Gr

oup

Dexia SEB

Swed

bank

Hand

elsba

nken

KBC Ba

nk

Banc

o Sa

ntan

der

Barcl

ays B

ank

Cred

it Su

isse

Cred

it Ag

ricole

Socie

te G

enerale

LBBW

UniCredit

Intesa Sa

npao

loDa

nske

Ban

k

Deutsche

Ban

kBN

P Pa

ribas

Allie

d Irish

Ban

ksBa

yeris

che L

B

UBS

Citig

roup

Page 80: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Lending in relation to depositsPer cent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Hande

lsban

ken

Swed

bank

Norde

a

UniCr

edit

SEB

Banc

o Sa

ntan

der

Commerzb

ank A

G

Barcl

ays B

ank

BNP Pa

ribas

RBS H

oldin

gs UBS

Cred

it Su

isse

HSBC Hold

ings

Deutsc

he Ban

k

Sources: Bankscope and the RiksbankChart 3:14

Page 81: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The major Swedish banks' deposits and lendingSEK billion

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

mar-01 mar-02 mar-03 mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09 mar-10

Lending Deposits and borrowing Deposit deficit

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:15

Page 82: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The major Swedish banks' sources of funding, March 2010Per cent

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:16

3 35

12

9

22

46

Credit from the Riksbank

Government-guaranteedborrowing via the SwedishNational Debt OfficeInterbank, net

Covered bonds in SEK

Covered bonds in foreigncurrency

Other debt securitiesissued

Deposits

Page 83: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Maturity of the securities of the major Swedish banks, March 2010SEK billion

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:17

430

590 590

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

<1 month 1-3 months 3-12 months

Page 84: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The market funding of the major Swedish banks per currency, December 2009Per cent

Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:18

SEK35%

EUR28%

USD21%

DKK10%

Other currencies6%

Page 85: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Chapter 4

Page 86: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Profit before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major Swedish banksTotalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 March 2010

Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the RiksbankChart 4:1

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10 dec-12

Profit before loan losses Loan losses, net

Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:1 Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:2

Page 87: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Distribution of loan losses in main scenario per bank and yearSEK billion

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank

2010 2011 2012

Source: The RiksbankChart 4:2

Page 88: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Distribution of loan losses per region in the period 2010–2012 in the Riksbank’s main scenarioSEK billion and per cent

Source: The RiksbankChart 4:3

58%

1017%

814%

58%

1931%

1322%

Sweden Nordic countries excl Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Other countries

Page 89: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The major Swedish bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish major bank has defaulted on its paymentsPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: The RiksbankChart 4:4

Page 90: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

Expected Default Frequency (EDF) for the Swedish corporate sector in the stress test and main scenarioPer cent

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

EDF, stress scenario EDF, main scenario

Sources: Moody's KMV and the RiksbankChart 4:5

Page 91: Chapter 1. Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 months Per cent Source: BloombergChart 1:1 Start

The major Swedish banks' Tier 1 and core Tier 1 capital ratios, today and in the stress testPer cent

Source: The RiksbankChart 4:6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q110*

1110

Handelsbanken SwedbankSEBNordea

Q1 10*

1110Q1 10*

1110Q1 10*

111012 121212