chap01translatetobahasa
TRANSCRIPT
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EFRAIM TURBAN and
JAY E. ARONSON
DECISION SUPPORT
SYSTEMS ANDINTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
PRENTICE HALL, UPPER
SADDLE RIVER, NJ, 1998
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN
DAN PENUNJANG
KOMPUTERISASI
s Management Support Systems
(MSS)Kumpulan teknologi komputer
s Objektif
– Untuk mendukung pekerjaan
manajerial– Untuk mendukung pengambilan
keputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Bab 1: Management Support
Systems (MSS)
Tinjauan umumTeknologi komputer yang canggih dan berkembang
Untuk Mendukung Solusi Masalah Manajerial
s Teknologi ini akan :
– Mengubah struktur organisasi
– Memudahkan rekayasa ulang proses bisnis
– Mengubah metode manajemen
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.1 Sketsa Pembukaan:
Penunjang keputusanKasino Harrah’s
s Profitabilitas
s Kompetisi yang tinggi
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Decision SupportSystem(s) (DSS)
s Pemecahan solusi masalah : Menganalisisdata pelanggan selama lima tahun yangdikumpulkan oleh sistem player-tracking
Pertumbuhan utama mengarahkan padaaplikasi penunjang keputusan dalamarea aplikasi :
s Perencanaan market dan penelitian
s Operasi dan perencanaan strategis
s Penunjang sales
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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DSS dan EIS
s Manajer dan pelanggan dapat mengaksesinformasi
s Mengolah informasi sangat vital untuk bertahan
s Menolong manajemen untuk tepat waktudan mengambil keputusan secara efektif
s Memberikan informasi yang reliable danrelevan, dalam format yang benar, dalamwaktu yang tepat.
s Membantu membuat analisa secaramudah dan cepat.
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.2 Manajer dan Pengambilan Keputusan
Mengapa komputer menunjang?
s Kompetisi
s Pengguna (End-user) dan akses pelanggan
s Data penyimpanan yang spesial
s Teknologi utama :
– DSS (menunjang manajer dan analis marketing)
– CRM (menunjang hubungan pelanggan)
s Data internal dan eksternal
s Aplikasi DSS terpisah dari sistem pemrosesan transaksi(TPS), namun menggunakan banyak data TPS
s Statistik dan model kuantitatif lainnya digunakan dalamCRM
s MANAJER bertanggung jawab dalam mengambilkeputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Cara Kerja Manajer Apa yang dilakukan Manajer?
Mintzberg [1980] (Table 1.1)
Aturan main Manajers Interpersonal
– Figurehead
– Leader
– Liason
s Informational
– Monitor
– Disseminator– Orang yang menyampaikan
s Decisional
– Wirausahawan
– Disturbance Handler
– Resource allocator
– Negosiator
Manajer memerlukan informasi dan komputer untuk mendukung keputusan
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1.3 Pengambilan Keputusan
Manajerial dan Sistem Informasi
s Manajemen adalah proses dimana tujuanorganisasi dicapai menggunakanpemberdayaan sumber daya
s Sumber daya : Inputs
s PencapaianTujuan : Output
s Alat ukur sukses: Productivity = Outputs / Inputs
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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s Semua aktivitas manajerial berkisar dalam pengambilankeputusan
s Manajer adalah seorang pengambil keputusan
s Pengambilan keputusan mempertimbangkan art-a talent
s Manejemen dianggap sebagai seni karena gaya individualdigunakan, bukan metode saintifik kuantitatif
s Sekarang banyak perubahan, lingkungan yang rumit.
s Lihat gambar 1.1: Faktor utama, Tren dan Hasil darimanajerial pengambilan keputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Faktor Tren Hasil
• Teknologi
•Informasi/komputer
•Kompleksitas
struktural• Kompetisi
• Pasar internasional
• Stabilitas politik • Konsumerisme
• Intervensi
pemerintah
• Perubahan, fluktuasi
M E N I
N
Makin banyak
alternatif untuk
dipilih
Makin besar biaya
untuk
memperbaiki
kesalahan
Makin tidak jelas
untuk masa depan
Perlu keputusan
cepat
Gambar 1.1 Faktor-faktor yg mempengaruhi pengambilan
keputusan
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s Sangat sulit untuk mengambil keputusan
s Banyak alternatif akibat banyak teknologi baru dan
sistem komunikasis Biaya dalam kesalahan akan sangat besar
s Informasi sulit untuk diakses
s Keputusan harus sangat cepat dilakukan
Pendekatan Trial-and-error pada manajemen -Not so Good!
Gunakan toolsbaru dan teknik
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.4 Manajer dan Dukungan
Komputer s Teknologi komputer berubah dan berkembang
s Dampak dari organisasi dan lingkungan berkembang
s Interaksi dan kerjasama antara orang dan mesinberkembang pesat
s Sistem komputerisasi sekarang digunakan dalam area
manajerial yang rumit.Information Technology sangat vital dalam bisnis(Survei mengatakan “#1 issue)dan eksekutif mengimplementasikan teknologi secaraekstensif (Caldwell [1995])
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Aplikasi Komputer berubah
Dari TPS dan MIS
kepada Proactive Applications (DSS)
Tools manajemen modern terbaru dalam :
s Data access
s On-line analytical processing (OLAP)
s Internet / Intranet / Web
untuk menunjang keputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.5 Pendukung Keputusan
Terkomputerisasi dan Dukungan
Teknologi
s Kecepatan komputasi.
s Peningkatan/perbaikan komunikasi
s Peningkatan produktivitas
s Dukungan teknis
s Akses data warehouse
s Dukungan kualitas
s Berdaya saing : manajemen dan
pemberdayaan sumber daya perusahaan.s Mengatasi keterbatasan kogntif dalam
pemprosesan dan penyimpanan.
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
Alasan mengapa SPK terkomputerisasi diperlukan :
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Primary Decision Support
Technologies
Management Support Systems (MSS)
s Decision Support Systems (DSS)
s Group Support Systems (GSS),including Group DSS (GDSS)
s Executive Information Systems (EIS)
s Expert Systems (ES)
s Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
s Hybrid Support Systems
s Cutting Edge Intelligent Systems
(Genetic Algorithms, Fuzzy Logic, IntelligentAgents, ...)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.6 Kerangka Kerja Klasik
untuk Pendukung Keputusan
s Dibuat oleh Gorry and Scott Morton[1971])
Yang menggabungkan :
s Simon [1977] Taxonomy and
s Anthony [1965] Taxonomy
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Simon: Pengambilan keputusan berupa suatu kontinum
s Sangat terstruktur (terprogram) sampai
s Sangat tidak terstruktur (tidak terprogram)
Simon: Tiga fase proses pengambilan keputusan
s Intelegensi—mencari kondisi-kondisi yang memerlukan keputusan
s Desain—menanamkan, mengembangkan, dan menganalisis tindakanyang mungkin diambil
s Pilihan—memilih satu tindakan dari pilihan yang tersedia
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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s Masalah tidak terstruktur tidak satupun daritiga fase tersebut yang distruktur
s Masalah semiterstruktur mempunyai salah satufase yang distruktur
s Masalah terstruktur mempunyai fase seluruhnya
– Prosedur untuk mendapatkan solusi terbaik diketahui
– Sasarannya ditentukan dengan jelas
– Sistem pendukung manajemen seperti DSS dan sistempakar dapat sangat berguna
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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s Masalah tidak tersturuktur sering diselesaikandengan intuisi
s Masalah semi terstruktur diselesaikan diantara
prosedur yang semestinya dengan penilaian manusia.
s Decision Support System dapat membantu manajermengerti masalah dan menambahkan sebuah solusi
s
Target dari DSS Meningkatkan efektifitas dalampengambilan keputusan
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Anthony’s Taxonomy[1965]
Tiga kategori luas yang meliputi semua aktivitasmanajerial :
– Perencanaan strategis
– Kontrol manajemen
– Kontrol operasional
s Kombinasi taksonomi Anthony dan Simon
s Decision Support System (DSS) untuk keputusansemistruktur dan tidak terstruktur
s Pendekatan MIS konvensional dan ilmumanajemen (MS) tidak tepat.
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Dukungan Komputer untuk
Keputusan Terstruktur
s Sejak tahun 1960
s Sering dihadapi
s Struktur tingkat tinggi
s Mungkin untuk mengabstraksi danmenganalisis serta mengklasifikasikanmasalah
s Diselesaikan dengan formula ataumodel kuantitatif
s Pendekatan ini disebut ilmu manajemen(MS) atau riset operari (OR)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Ilmu Manajemen
s Proses sistematis melibatkan langkahlangkah :1. Menentukan masalah2. Mengklasifikasikan masalah ke dalam kategori standar.
3. Mengonstruksi suatu model matematika yang
menjelaskan masalah nyata
4. Menemukan solusi-solusi yang mungkin untk masalah –masalah yang telah dimodelkan dan mengevaluasi solusi
tersebut.
5. Mewmilih dan merekomendasikan suatu solusi untuk
masalah
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.7 Konsep Sistem Pendukung
Keputusan (DSS)
Scott Morton [1971]
s Sistem berbasis komputer interaktif, yang membantupara pengambil keputusan untuk menggunakan datadan berbagai model untuk memecahkan masalah-masalah yang tidak terstruktur[1971]
Keen and Scott Morton [1978]
s DSS memadukan sumber daya intelektual dari individudengan kapabilitas komputer untuk meningkatkankualitas keputusan. DSS adalah sistem berbasiskomputer bagi para pengambil keputusan manajemen
yang menangani masalah masalah tidak terstruktur
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Mengapa Menggunakan DSS? Keuntungan keuntungan :
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.8 Group Support Systems
(GSS)
s Keputusan dibuat oleh kelompok
s Mendukung kerja kelompok kapanpundan dimanapun
GSS disebut jugas Groupware
s Electronic meeting systems
s Collaborative systems
s Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.9 Executive Information
(Support) Systems (EIS, ESS)
Strictly for Executive Use!– Memberikan pandangan operasi organisaional
– Memberikan antarmuka yang sangat user-friendly melalui portal
– Memberikan tingkat pelacakan dan kontrolkorporat yang terbatas waktu dan efektif.
– Memberikan akses cepat ke informasi detaildi balik teks, angka, atau grafik.
– Menyaring, meringkas, dan melacak data daninformasi kritis.
– Mengidentifikasi masalah (peluang)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.10 Sistem Pakar (ES)
s
Pakar menyelesaikan sistem yang rumits Pakar memiliki pengetahuan yang spesifik dan
pengalaman
s Pakar memiliki kewaspadaan akan :
– Alternatif-alternatif
–Kesempatan untuk sukses
– Keuntungan dan pengeluaran
An Expert System (ES) is a decision-making and/orproblem-solving computer package that reaches orexceeds a level of performance comparable to a human
expert in some specialized and usually narrow problemarea
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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1.11 Jaringan Saraf Tiruan
/Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN)s Dapat bekerja dalam masalah
yang tidak lengkap, tidak nyata
s Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)are mathematical models of thehuman brain
s Neural networks learn patterns indata
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
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Cutting Edge IntelligentSystems
s Genetic AlgorithmsWork in an evolutionary fashion
s Fuzzy Logic
Continuous logic (NOT just True /False)
s Intelligent Agents
Generally in search engines,also in electronic commerce
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ
1 12 Si t P d k
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1.12 Sistem Pendukung
Hibrid/Hybrid Support
Systemss Kombinasi dari teknologi
s Sistem terintegrasi dapat menggunakan kelebihan darimasing masing teknologi
s Goal: successful solution of the managerial problem
not the use of a specific tool or technique
Beberapa pendekatan hibrid :s Menggunakan tool secara independen
s Menggunakan beberapa tools yang kurang terintegrasi
s Menggunakan tools yang sangat terintegrasi
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s Tools dapat mendukung satu samalain
(misalkan : ES ditambahakan padaDSS database)
s
Lebih ditambahkan sistemcerdas(by ES, neural networks,fuzzy logic, intelligent agents)pada MSS tradisional
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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1.13 The Evolution and Attributes
of Computerized Decision Aids
s Summary of the development of computerized procedures used as aidsin decision making (Table 1.2)
s The support to specific questionsprovided by DSS (Table 1.3)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson
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h i i l f l
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Phase Description Examples of Tools
Early Compute “crunchnumbers,” summarize,organize.
Calculators, early computerprograms, statisticalmodels, simplemanagement sciencemodels.
Intermediate Find, organize, and display
decision-relevantinformation.
Database management
systems, MIS, filingsystems, managementscience models.
Current Perform decision-relevantcomputations on decision-relevant information;organize and display theresults. Query-based anduser-friendly approach.“What-if” analysis.
Interact with decisionmakers to facilitateformulation and executionof the intellectual steps inthe process of decisionmaking.
Financial models,spreadsheets, trendexploration, operationsresearch models, CADsystems, decision supportsystems.
Expert systems, executiveinformation systems.
J ust beginning Complex and fuzzydecisions situations,expanding to collaborativedecision making and tomachine learning.
Second generation expertsystems, group DSS, neuralcomputing.
Table 1.2: Aids in Decision Making
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computer-based
information systems (CBIS)1. Time Sequence
s
mid-1950s Transaction Processing Systems (TPS)
s 1960s MIS
s 1970s Office Automation SystemsDSS
s 1980s DSS ExpandedCommercial applications of expert systemsExecutive Information Systems
s 1990s Group Support Systems
Neural ComputingIntegrated, hybrid computer systems
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2. Computer evolved over time
3. Systemic linkages in how eachsystem processes data intoinformation
See Figure 1.3 Relationship amongthese and other technologies
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Dimension
Transactions
Processing
Systems
(TPS)
Management
Information
Systems
(MIS)
Decision
Support
Systems
(DSS)
Expert
Systems
(ES)
Executive
Support
Systems
(EIS)
Neural
Computing
Applications Payroll
inventory,
record
keeping,
production
and sales
information
Production
control, sales
forecasting,
monitoring
Long-range
strategic
planning,
complex
integrated
problem
areas
Diagnosis,
strategic
planning,
internal
control
planning,
strategies
Support to
top
manage-
ment
decisions,
environ-
mental
scanning
Complex,
repetitive
decisions.
Diagnosis,
control
investment
Focus Data
transactions
Information Decisions,
flexibility,
user-
friendliness
Inferencing
transfer of
expertise
Tracking,
control,
“Drill
down”
Pattern
recognition
Database Unique to
each applica-
tion, batch
update
Interactive
access by
programmers
Database
management
systems,
interactive
access,
factual
knowledge
Procedural
and factual
knowledge;
knowledge
base (facts,
rules)
External
(online) and
corporate,
enterprise
wide access
(to all
databases)
Historical
cases, provide
learning
Decision
Capabilities
No decisions Structured
routine prob-
lems using
conventional
management
science tools
Semistruc-
tured
problems,
integrated
management
science
models,
blend of
judgment
and
modeling
Systems
make
complex
decisions,
unstructured;
use of rules
(heuristics)
Onlywhen
combined
with a DSS
Mainly
predictions,
based on
historical
cases
Manipulation Numerical Numerical Numerical Symbolic Numeric
(mainly),
some
symbolic
Numeric
needs
preproces-
sing
Type of
Information
Summary
reports,
operational
Scheduled and
demand
reports,
structured
flow,
exception
reporting
Informa-
tion to
support
specific
decisions
Advice and
explanations
Status
access,
exception
reporting,
key
indicators
Forecasts,
classification
to patterns
Highest
organizational
level served
Sub-
managerial,
low
management
Middle
management
Analysts
and
managers
Managers
and
specialists
Senior
executives
(only)
Specialists,
managers
Impetus Expediency Efficiency Effective-
ness
Effective-
ness and
expediency
Timeliness Expediency
FIGURE 1.3: Attributes of the Major Computerized Support Systems
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Appendix 1-A: Computer-Based Information Systems in
a Personnel Department
Illustration of the content of a typical CBIS
Category Task
Transaction Processing Systems Maintain Personnel records; prepare payroll;compute salaries and incentive plans.
Management Information System Prepare summary reports (e.g., averagesalaries in each department). Conductperformance tracking of employees, laborbudget. Do preparation, monitoring, andanalysis. Performshort-termscheduling.Match positions and candidates. Monitorpositions control systems. Performfringebenefits monitoring and control.
Decision Support Systems Prepare special reports (e.g., safety records,equal opportunity achievements). Do long-range planning for human resources. Designa compensation plan. Provide quantitativesupport of labor-management negotiation.
Expert Systems Provide advice on legal, tax, and labornegotiations. Develop a social responsibilityplan. Select training media. Designcomprehensive training programs. Help inselecting new employees. Assist in annualemployee evaluation.
Executive Information Systems At the corporate level only. Track and display
key performance indicators of the department(such as dollar earned or spent peremployee).
Group DSS Supports the process of making controversialmajor decisions (e.g., personnel policies);electronic brainstorming.
Neural Computing Screen applicants for jobs. Analyze reasonswhy people leave, or remain with thecompany (find patterns).