changing notions of risk management in financial markets
TRANSCRIPT
Rajib Ranjan Borah Co-Founder & Director,
QuantInsti Quantitative Learning Pvt Ltd
&
iRageCapital Advisory Pvt Ltd
Changing Notions of Risk Management in Financial
Markets –
Impact of Proliferation of Automated Trading Systems and Technology on Financial Markets
Table of Contents
• Changing Trends in Trading
• Major Automated Trading Risk Failures
• Changing Trends in Trading Risk Management
• Regulatory requirements
• Q & A
Table of Contents
• Changing Trends in Trading
• Major Automated Trading Risk Failures
• Changing Trends in Trading Risk Management
• Regulatory requirements
• Q & A
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading in the markets
If you have a profitable trading strategy, then …
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading in the markets
If you have a profitable trading strategy, then …
• do it as frequently (don’t miss any opportunity)
• scale it up (trade as many financial instruments)
• don’t let emotions affect (greed & fear: traders’ biggest enemies)
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading in the markets
If you have a profitable trading strategy, then …
• do it as frequently (don’t miss any opportunity)
• scale it up (trade as many financial instruments)
• don’t let emotions affect (greed & fear: traders’ biggest enemies)
Computers:
• always at their seats
• respond to opportunities in
microseconds
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading in the markets
If you have a profitable trading strategy, then …
• do it as frequently (don’t miss any opportunity)
• scale it up (trade as many financial instruments)
• don’t let emotions affect (greed & fear: traders’ biggest enemies)
Human eye can monitor 10-
15 stocks.
Computers can track
thousands simultaneously
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading in the markets
If you have a profitable trading strategy, then …
• do it as frequently (don’t miss any opportunity)
• scale it up (trade as many financial instruments)
• don’t let emotions affect (greed & fear: traders’ biggest enemies)
Computers have no
emotions
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading in the markets
If you have a profitable trading strategy, then …
• do it as frequently (don’t miss any opportunity)
• scale it up (trade as many financial instruments)
• don’t let emotions affect (greed & fear: traders’ biggest enemies)
Trading is all about computations and computers do calculations faster
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading Today
Inevitably, machines have taken over human beings
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading Today
Inevitably, machines have taken over human beings
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading shifted from pits …
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
…to computers
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
…and even more computers
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Trading Landscape changes
This revolution has been fast
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Effect of algo-trading
… and this growth has been across asset classes
Options
FX
Equity
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Options
FX
Equity
Effect of algo-trading
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
… and this growth has been across asset classes
Options
FX
Equity
Effect of algo-trading
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
… and this growth has been across asset classes
Unfortunately, …. computers don’t think
Effect of algo-trading
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Pros and Cons
Trading algorithmically is generally more profitable
• Less downtime
• No emotions (Greed & Fear)
• React faster
• Higher scalability
• Accurate and faster calculations
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Pros and Cons
Trading algorithmically is generally more profitable
But …
Systems are getting
more complicated
Traditional trading system
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Pros and Cons
Trading algorithmically is generally more profitable
But…
Systems are getting
more complicated
Increasing
likelihood of errors
Automated trading system
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Pros and Cons
Trading algorithmically is more profitable …
… and more riskier
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Table of Contents
• Changing Trends in Trading
• Major Automated Trading Risk Failures
• Changing Trends in Trading Risk Management
• Regulatory requirements
• Q & A
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Major algorithmic trading incidents - I
• Credit Suisse, Nov 2007 – Incident:
• Hundreds of thousands of cancel orders sent to the exchange
• Orders clogged NYSE and affected trading of 975 stocks
– Reasons: • Trader implemented code which could change parameters
on clicking on spin button
(without any need for confirmation)
• With each click, orders were cancelled and resent
– Fine/ Losses: • $150,000 fine
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Infinium Capital, Feb 2010 – Incident:
• 4612 trades on crude oil futures in 24 seconds
– Reasons: • Strategy was designed to trade energy ETFs on the basis of
crude prices
• Trader configured crude oil futures on the basis of energy ETFs
• Moreover, RMS was designed on the basis of ETF prices, not crude prices
– Fine/ Losses: • $850,000 fine by CME
Major algorithmic trading incidents - II
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Deutsche Bank, June 2010 – Incident:
• Sent orders for 1.24 million Nikkei 225 Futures & 4.82 million Nikkei 225 mini-futures in first few minutes
• More than 10 times normal volume
• Market dropped 1% on orders
– Reasons: • Pair trade strategy used value of Nikkei ETF to quote Nikkei.
At start of day, there was no price information in Nikkei ETF (because of a configuration change)
• Error recognized immediately, 99.7% orders cancelled
– Fine/ Losses: • Forced to close Algorithmic trading desk in Tokyo
Major algorithmic trading incidents - III
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• BATS listing, Mar 2012
– Incident:
• On the day of listing, stock price dropped 99%
– Reasons:
• Software bug in newly installed exchange matching engine - orders placed during auction session became inaccessible for stocks whose ticker symbols began with letters A to BFZZZ
– Fine/ Losses:
• IPO withdrawn
Major algorithmic trading incidents - IV
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Knight Capital, Aug 2012 – Incident:
• Traded 154 stocks at bizarre prices (4 million trades for 397 million shares in 45 minutes): alternately bought at higher prices and sold at lower prices
– Reasons: • Accidentally installed test software which incorporated an
old piece of code designed 9 years ago
• In one out of 8 production servers, new code was not installed by a technician
• No process for second technician to review
– Fine/ Losses: • Trading loss of $460 million in 45 minutes. Fine of $12
million
• Knight Capital had to be rescued by Getco
Major algorithmic trading incidents - V
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Goldman Sachs, Aug 2013
– Incident:
• Traded stock options at very erroneous prices at the exchange
– Reasons:
• Indication of interests were sent as actual orders to the exchange
– Fine/ Losses:
• Trading loss of $100 million
Major algorithmic trading incidents - VI
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, Aug 2013
– Incident:
• Shares of Israel Corp. country's largest holding company fell sharply from 167,200 Israeli Shekels to 210 Shekels.
– Reasons:
• Trader wrongly entered Israeli Corp as scrip name instead of some other firm
– Fine/ Losses:
• All trades cancelled
Major algorithmic trading incidents - VII
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Everbright Securities, Aug 2013
– Incident:
• Rogue algorithm kept buying – index moved up 6% intraday
• Did not inform regulators, shorted the artificial bubble – banned from prop trading forever for insider trading
– Reasons:
• Algorithm did not check position limits and kept sending orders
– Fine/ Losses:
• Banned from prop trading forever for insider trading
Major algorithmic trading incidents -VIII
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• HanMag Securities, Dec 2013 – Incident:
• HanMag exercised wrong call and put options
• 36,100 trades in a few minutes
– Reasons: • Error in automated profit taking trade program
(interchanged puts with calls)
– Fine/ Losses: • Some firms returned money back to HanMag (Optiver
returned $600k trading profits)
• Eventual loss of 57 billion Korean Won
Major algorithmic trading incidents - IX
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• United Airlines mini-flash crash
– Incident:
• On Sep. 7, 2008 United Airlines had a downward price spike
– Reasons:
• Google’s newsbots picked up an old 2002 story about United Airlines possibly filing for bankruptcy
• News Analytics based automated traders reacted to it
Major algorithmic trading incidents - X
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Dow Jones mini-flash crash – Incident:
• On Apr 23, 2013 Markets dropped 0.8% momentarily
– Reasons: • Twitter account of news publisher hacked – false news
of White house explosion
• News Analytics based automated traders reacted to it
Major algorithmic trading incidents - XI
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Table of Contents
• Changing Trends in Trading
• Major Automated Trading Risk Failures
• Changing Trends in Trading Risk Management
• Regulatory framework in India
• Q & A
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Traditional Risks
Traditionally trading operations focused on following risks …
• Market Risk
• Credit / Counter-party Risk
• Financial Risk
• Liquidity Risk
• Regulatory Risk
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Automated Trading Risks
Automated trading requires additional focus on
• Market Risk
• Credit / Counter-party Risk
• Financial Risk
• Liquidity Risk
• Operational Risk
• System Risk
• Greater focus on Natural Disaster Risk
• Regulatory Risk (Automated Trading related)
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Issues with Algo-Trading • Orders flow without human control
– Higher reliance on technology
– GIGO (Garbage Input → Garbage Output)
• Before a human can realize (and then respond) → tremendous damage would happen already
• Trades happen at such a fast pace → positions could become huge in no time
– Real-time monitor of positions, exposures, regulation checks
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Algo-trading system risks • System and Operational Risks specific to
automated trading can be classified into the following categories:
– Access
– Consistency
– Quality
– Algorithm
– Technology
– Scalability
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Algo-trading system risks • Such System and Operational risks have to
be handled pre-order
– Within the application
– Before generating an order in the Order Management System
• Moreover, it is pertinent that the trader understands the internal working of the black-box
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Algo-trading system risks
Automated trading platform – system architecture
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
RISK
Risk Handled in Methodology
App OM
Access Connectivity to an exchange goes down
Y Y Heart-beats
Exchange disconnects you Y Heart-beats
Network issue Y Hardware, Operating System
Consistency Market Data is stale Y Y Time-stamp
Analytics are running in real-time (huge processing time)
Y Time-stamp
OM adaptor is responding in real time
Y Time-stamp
Quality Market - data is garbled Y Common RMS rule
Loss of liquidity during high-volatility
Y Common RMS rule
Algo-trading system risks
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
RISK
Risk Handled in Methodology
App OM
Algorithmic Margin breached Y Common RMS rule
Exposure limit set by exchange
Y Common RMS rule
Risk limits exceeded Y
Check for acknowledgements before sending order
Incorrect strategy setting leading to continual mistrades
Y Y PnL fluctuation check
-do- Y Order throttle rate
-do- Y Fat finger settings check
-do- Y Max Value Traded
Incorrect order generation Y Y Price range check
Order throttle Y Exchange reject limit
Algo-trading system risks
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
RISK
Risk Handled in
Methodology
App OM
Technology Hard disk gets full Independent check
Virus /Trojan Firewall, Anti-virus
System Crash Operating System
Application crash Y
Heart-beat to check application
Protocol Mismatch Third-party software compatibility check
Algo-trading system risks
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
RISK
Handled in
Methodology App OM
Scalability Number of applications & portfolios that can be handled Y Y
Number of exchanges that can be connected Y
Number of symbols that can be handled Y Y
Order of complexity of computations Y
Algo-trading system risks
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Table of Contents
• Changing Trends in Trading
• Major Automated Trading Risk Failures
• Changing Trends in Trading Risk Management
• Regulatory requirements
• Q & A
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Half-yearly system audit conducted only for algorithmic trading facility
• Members are required to provide following information on NSE-
ENIT: – details of all algorithmic strategies in the template provided – auditor certificate
• Audit provides following reports: – Summary report: Ratings of ‘Strong’, ‘Medium’ or ‘Weak’ on each
broad areas (which is to be submitted to exchange via NSE-ENIT) – Detailed report
• In case audit report has a rating of Weak, the member is
required to submit an ATR (Action Taken Report) to exchange
• Auditors to provide report on their letter heads: – List of all strategies approved
Audit Process & Requirements
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
SEBI’s broad guidelines on Algorithmic Trading
(Circular CIR/MRD/DP/09/2012 dated 30 Mar 2012):
Guideline for exchanges:
• The stock exchange shall have arrangements, procedures and system capability to manage the load on their systems in such a manner so as to achieve consistent response time to all stock brokers. The stock exchange shall continuously study the performance of its systems and, if necessary, undertake system up gradation, including periodic up gradation of its surveillance system, in order to keep pace with the speed of trade and volume of data that may arise through algorithmic trading.
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• In order to ensure maintenance of orderly trading in the market, stock exchange shall put in place effective economic disincentives with regard to high daily order-to-trade ratio of algorithmic trading orders of the stock broker. Further, the stock exchange shall put in place monitoring systems to identify and initiate measures to impede any possible instances of order flooding by algorithms.
• The stock exchange may seek details of trading strategies implemented through algorithmic trading for such purposes viz. inquiry, surveillance, investigation, etc.
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• The stock exchange shall include a report on algorithmic trading on the stock exchange in the Monthly Development Report (MDR) submitted to SEBI inter-alia incorporating turnover details of algorithmic trading, algorithmic trading as percentage of total trading, number of stock brokers / clients using algorithmic trading, action taken in respect of dysfunctional algorithms, status of grievances, if any, received and processed, etc.
• The stock exchange shall synchronize its system clock with the atomic clock before the start of market such that its clock has precision of atleast one microsecond and accuracy of atleast +/- one millisecond.
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Stock exchange shall ensure that the stock broker shall provide the facility of algorithmic trading only upon the prior permission of the stock exchange. Stock exchange shall subject the systems of the stock broker to initial conformance tests to ensure that the checks mentioned below are in place and that the stock broker’s system facilitate orderly trading and integrity of the securities market. Further, the stock exchange shall suitably schedule such conformance tests and thereafter, convey the outcome of the test to the stock broker.
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Guideline to brokers:
• The stock broker, desirous of placing orders generated using algorithms, shall submit to the respective stock exchange an undertaking that - – The stock broker has proper procedures, systems and technical
capability to carry out trading through the use of algorithms.
– The stock broker has procedures and arrangements to safeguard algorithms from misuse or unauthorized access.
– The stock broker has real-time monitoring systems to identify algorithms that may not behave as expected. Stock broker shall keep stock exchange informed of such incidents immediately.
– The stock broker shall maintain logs of all trading activities to facilitate audit trail. The stock broker shall maintain record of control parameters, orders, trades and data points emanating from trades executed through algorithm trading.
– The stock broker shall inform the stock exchange on any modification or change to the approved algorithms or systems used for algorithms.
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
SEBI later laid out additional guidelines pertaining to Audit (Circular CIR/MRD/DP/16/2013 dated 31 May 2013): • The stock brokers/ trading members that provide the facility of
algorithmic trading shall subject their algorithmic trading system to a system audit every six months in order to ensure that the requirements prescribed by SEBI / stock exchanges with regard to algorithmic trading are effectively implemented
• Such system audit of algorithmic trading system shall be undertaken by a system auditor who possesses any of the following certifications: – CISA (Certified Information System Auditors) from ISACA; – DISA (Post Qualification Certification in Information Systems Audit)
from Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI); – CISM (Certified Information Securities Manager) from ISACA; – CISSP (Certified Information Systems Security Professional) from
International Information Systems Security Certification Consortium, commonly known as (ISC)
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Deficiencies or issues identified during the process of system audit of trading algorithm / software shall be reported by the stock broker / trading member to the stock exchange immediately on completion of the system audit.
• In case of serious deficiencies / issues or failure of the stock broker / trading member to take satisfactory corrective action, the stock exchange shall not allow the stock broker/ trading member to use the trading software till deficiencies / issues with the trading software are rectified and a satisfactory system audit report is submitted to the stock exchange. Stock exchanges may also consider imposing suitable penalties in case of failure of the stock broker/ trading member to take satisfactory corrective action to its system within the time-period specified by the stock exchanges.
SEBI guidelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• The audit process shall broadly cover the following aspects: – Approved features and system parameters implemented in the
trading system
– Adequacy of input, processing and output controls should be tested
– Adequacy of the application security should be audited
– Event logging and system monitoring
– Robust Password management standards
– Network management and controls
– Backup systems and procedures
– Business continuity and disaster recovery plan
– Proper Documentation for system processes
– Security features such as access control, network firewalls and virus protection should be actively managed
Audits
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• The stock broker, desirous of placing orders generated using algorithms, shall satisfy the stock exchange with regard to the implementation of the following minimum levels of risk controls at its end - – Price check
– Quantity check
– Order Value check
– Cumulative Open Order Value check
– Automated Execution check - an algorithm shall account for all executed, un-executed and unconfirmed orders, placed by it before releasing further order(s)
– Pre-defined parameters for automatic stoppage in the event of a runaway situation / execution in a loop
– All algorithmic orders are tagged with a unique identifier provided by the stock exchange in order to establish audit trail
Audits
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• System compliance requirement for CTCL on annual basis: – Members to submit to the exchange the system audit report every
year (for the year ended Mar 31) after getting the CTCL trading facility audited from any qualified auditor
– Report to be submitted through NSE-ENIT by April 30
• System compliance requirement for Algorithmic Trading Facility on half yearly basis: – Members to submit the System Audit Report for the half year
ended March 31 (i.e. for the period from October 01 to March 31) and September 30 (i.e. for the period April 01 to September 30), after getting the Algorithmic trading facility audited from any qualified auditor
Audit Timelines
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• Algorithm to be executed in Mock Trading environment – logs to be certified by auditor
• Algorithm to be executed in Test market at NSE – logs to be certified by auditor
• Apply to exchange for strategy demonstration date with following documents:
– Strategy document
– Risk Management document
– Network Architecture
– Auditor certificates (both Mock market and Test market)
– Application form (signed by director/senior management)
• Algorithm to be demonstrated with exchange
Strategy Approval Process
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
• After approval from exchange, member applies for trading ids (NEAT ids)
• NEAT ids converted to CTCL ids for particular vendor. Vendor of software intimated about ids and confirmation obtained
• Member uploads location code details (12 digits) along with dealer details under CTCL ID before commencing trading
• Member can trade as either PRO or on behalf of CLIENTS.
– For PRO trading, PRO Undertaking, PRO Location Undertaking must be submitted. PRO enablement should also be done for the particular trading id.
Strategy Approval Process
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
RMS for strategy approval
RMS Description
Manual Trading disabled
Manual orders are disabled for auto-trading systems
Trade Price Protection Limit
Order should be within x% of last price
Quantity Freeze Limit
For each instrument an order size freeze limit is set
Price Range Check Order should not breach the circuit limit (daily price range) of an instrument
FII restricted list FIIs cannot trade in a select set of stocks (RBI directed)
Market Wide Protection Limit
Cannot trade derivatives to increase Open Interest beyond a threshold
Shares available for selling
Overnight long position that is available per share for selling
Automated Trading enabled
Automated trading to be enabled for a select list of instruments only
Index change check
Cannot send buy orders if Index moves up beyond a point. Likewise for sell orders
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
RMS Description
Client Position Limit
Maximum position that a client can have in a particular stock
Margin Limit If a threshold of the available margin is reached, then the application should not send orders to increase the position further
Position Value Check
Net Position value per instrument
Order Value Max Order Value
RMS for strategy approval
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Table of Contents
• Changing Trends in Trading
• Changing Trends in Trading Risk Management
• Major Automated Trading Risk Failures
• Regulatory framework in India
• Q & A
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Contacts
For 4-month Executive Program in Algorithmic Trading:
E-PAT: 4 month weekend online program (3hrs every Sat + Sun)
• Statistics
• Quant Strategies
• Technology (programming on algorithmic trading platform)
For algorithmic trading advisory: [email protected]
To reach me directly: [email protected]
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
E-PAT
Statistics and Econometrics
Financial Computing & Technology
Algorithmic & Quantitative Trading
QI’s E-PAT course
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
E-PAT
Statistics and Econometrics
Financial Computing & Technology
Algorithmic & Quantitative Trading
E-PAT course structure - module I
Basic Statistics
Advanced Statistics
Time Series Analysis
Probability and Distribution
Statistical Inference
Linear Regression
Correlation vs. Co-integration
ARIMA, ARCH-GARCH Models
Multiple Regression
Stochastic Math
Causality
Forecasting
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
E-PAT
Statistics and Econometrics
Financial Computing & Technology
Algorithmic & Quantitative Trading
E-PAT course structure - module II
Programming
Technology for Algorithmic Trading
Statistical Tools
Intro to Programming
Language(s)
Programming on Algorithmic
Trading Platforms
System Architecture
Understanding an Algorithmic
Trading Platform
Handling HFT Data
Excel & VBA
Financial Modeling using R
Using R & Excel for Back-testing
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
E-PAT
Statistics and Econometrics
Financial Computing & Technology
Algorithmic & Quantitative Trading
E-PAT course structure - module III
Trading Strategies
Derivatives & Market Microstructure
Managing Algo Operations
Statistical Arbitrage
Market Making Strategies
Execution Strategies
Forecasting & AI Based Strategies
Pair Trading Strategies
Trend following Strategies
Option Pricing Model
Dispersion Trading
Risk Management using Higher
Order Greeks
Option Portfolio Management
Order Book Dynamics
Market Microstructure
Hardware & Network
Regulatory Framework
Exchange Infrastructure &
Financial Planning (Costing)
Risk Management in Automated
systems
Performance Evaluation &
Portfolio Management
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
E-PAT
Statistics and Econometrics
Financial Computing & Technology
Algorithmic & Quantitative Trading
Project work
E-PAT course structure - project
Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
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Changing Trends in Trading → Major Failures → Changing Trends in Risk Mgmt → Regulations → QA
Risk Management Process
• Phase 1: Setting risk management
structure & policies
• Dedicated risk department
• Completely cut off from trading department
• Full autonomy & powers to risk department
• Approval process for each new product and operation introduced
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 2: Identifying sources of risk
• Market Risks
• Credit / Counter-party Risks
• Financing Risks
• Operational Risks (Systems, Mechanical, Criminal)
• Regulatory Risks
• Liquidity Risks (Exogenous & endogenous)
• Natural disasters, political, terrorism, etc
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Market Risks :
• Sensitivity Analysis • Total Greeks, Dividend, Currency
exposures
• What-if scenario analyses
• VaR analysis
• Stress tests
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Credit / Counter-party Risks
• Basel II IRB method
(Internal Rating Based Method)
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Financing Risk
Probability of downgrade * interest rate hike * Size of portfolio
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Regulatory Risk
Probabilities of new Regulations- Is estimated from News Analysis & Historical Data
Examples…
• Short Selling Ban
• Margin Increase
• Taxes Introduced
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Operational Risks (Systems, Mechanical, Criminal)
• Robustness of a System
• System Load handling capacity
• Maximum order flow before system detects failure
• Maximum leeway in error while setting parameters
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Liquidity Risks
• Liquidity adjusted VaR
L-VaR = VaR + Liquidty Adjusted
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 3: Evaluating risk components
• Natural Disaster, Political Risk, Terrorism
• Risk v/s Uncertainty
• News Analysis
Have the potential to wipeout portfolios
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 4: Setting risk limits
• Market Risks :
• Total cash exposure
• Exposure to geography
• Exposure to sector
• Exposure to asset class
• Exposure to assignment / delivery risks (settlement risks)
• Settlement Type (future vs cash)
• Exposure to interest rates
• Exposure to exchange rates
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 4: Setting risk limits
• Credit / Counter-party Risks
• Maximum exposure to any counter-party
• Maximum exposure per credit rating level
• Financing Risks
• Maximum amount borrowed per counter-party
• Repayment period for loans
• Rho exposure
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 4: Setting risk limits
• Operational Risks (Systems, Mechanical)
• Max exposure per strategy
• Max orders per second
• Max orders in a day
• Max exposure per application
• PnL fluctuation per application
• Price Range check
• Max order size
• Max Value Traded
• Net Value of portfolio
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 4: Setting risk limits
• Operational Risks (Criminal/Fraud/ Theft, etc)
• Access Control
• Transparency of operations
• Rotation of team members
• Audit (internal & external)
• Centralized PnL reconciliation
• Independent verification of price to pricing models
• Online Infiltration & Virus Protection
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 4: Setting risk limits
• Liquidity Risks
• Maximum exposure per instruments of each liquidity category
• Total exposure per liquidity category
• Natural disasters
• Score-card approach
• Similar to one used By Insurance/ Actuaries
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5
Risk Management Process
• Phase 5: Designing systems with
strict adherence to risk controls
• Centralized system which summarizes net position & exposure
• Asset classes, Interest rates, Exchange rates, Volatility, Dividends, Counter parties
• What if Analysis
• Centralized control of all trading operation
• Pre trade controls
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Phase 5