changing marine access in the arctic ocean 5 th international ice charting working group meeting 19...
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Changing Marine Access in the Arctic Ocean
5th International Ice Charting Working Group Meeting
19 – 23 April 2004
Lawson Brigham Alaska Office, U.S. Arctic Research Commission
Federal Maritime and Hydrographic
Agency of Germany (BSH)
Hamburg, Germany
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Project of the Arctic Council
- Evaluate: climate variability, climate change, and increased UV and their consequences
- Use of General Circulation/Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Greenhouse Gas Scenarios
- Project future Arctic changes for: 2020, 2050, and 2080
- Sea ice changes for 20th and 21st Centuries
- Scientific report & synthesis released early 2005
“The Arctic’s Response to Climate Change” (from ACIA)
Increases in winter surface air temperatures Increases in precipitation Thawing of previously permanently frozen ground Reductions in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion Increases in Siberian river outflows to the Arctic Ocean Warming of Arctic oceanic waters Record low levels of stratospheric ozone Increases in ground levels of ultra violet radiation
Sea IceSea Ice• Observational data show Observational data show a decrease of coveragea decrease of coverage
• Decrease isDecrease is largest inlargest in summersummer
• Decrease isDecrease is largest sincelargest since late 1980slate 1980s
Sea
Ice
Ext
ent
(km
2 )
16 Sept. 200216 Sept. 2002
16 Sept. 200316 Sept. 2003
16 Sept. 200216 Sept. 2002 16 Sept. 200316 Sept. 2003
Challenges of the Canadian Archipelagoand the Northwest Passage
GCM resolution constraints
High interannual variability of ice coverage
Regional Eastern Arctic
Canadian Ice Service (2004)
Total Ice Coverage - Eastern ArcticSeptember 10
050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
To
tal
Ice
Co
vera
ge
(sq
.Km
)K
m2)
Regional Eastern Arctic
ll
Minimum Ice CoverageEastern Arctic
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Min
imu
m Ice C
overa
ge
(sq
.Km
)
Canadian Ice Service (2004)
km2
Regional Western Arctic
Minimum Ice CoverageWestern Arctic
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Year
Min
imu
m I
ce
C
ov
era
ge
(s
q.K
m)
Canadian Ice Service (2004)
(km
2)
Climate model projections of sea ice extent :Climate model projections of sea ice extent : 2000 - 21002000 - 2100
MarchMarch SeptemberSeptember
MAR SEPT
The Northern Sea Route
INSROP (1999)
INSROP (1999)
Northern Sea Route : Northern Sea Route : Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100Navigability projected for 2000 - 2100
Year
Summary Points- Observed retreat of Arctic sea ice is real.
- GCMs indicate steadily increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.
- Extensive & increasing open water areas in summer around the Arctic Basin (and Alaska) projected throughout the 21st Century.
- Sea ice projections for Russia's Northern Sea Route indicate an increasing length of the navigation season.
- Possibility for marine surface navigation in the Central Arctic Ocean in summer by 2050.
- Quantification of Arctic marine access/navigation proving challenging; testing the limitations of GCMs; recognition of the need for Arctic regional models.
- Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: guide to current and future Arctic climate trends & consequences.
Relevant Upcoming Events
ACIA Symposium (9-12 November 2004)
ACIA & Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (Ministerial, 15-18 November 2004)
Experts Meeting: Scott Polar Research Institute (September 2004)
International Conference - Future Arctic Marine Transport (Anchorage, Spring/Summer 2005)