changing demographics: implications for the housing market housing finance council call laurie...
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Changing Demographics: Implications for the Housing Market
Housing Finance Council Call
Laurie GoodmanUrban Institute
July 1, 2015
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Overview
Household growth continues, mainly fueled by Hispanics and other
non-whites 2010-20: 11.6 million net household growth; 2020-30: 10.4 million net
growth
Hispanics make up 39% of growth in this decade, 46% in next
Rental housing growth will outpace ownership housing growth Renters grow by over 700K/year 2010s, 580K/year 2020s
Continued net growth of homeowners @ 450K/year both decades
Homeownership slipping; African Americans hardest-hit By 2030, overall homeownership falls to 61.3%
African Americans slip from 44.5% to 40% (lowest since before 1970)
Other minorities more stable as young immigrants age and integrate
Huge growth in senior households We’re adding 1 million senior households yearly
Senior renters will double, increasing pressure on affordable housing2
Source: Laurie Goodman, Rolf Pendall and Jun Zhu. “Headship and Homeownership: What Does the Future Hold?”, Urban Institute, June 8, 2015.
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2.7 4.6 2.2 2.1 8.9 11.61.3 4.8 1.9 2.5 9.1 10.4
Projected household growth, 2010-2020Projected household growth, 2020-2030
Source: Urban Institute projections.
Net new households, millions
Growth in households continues, largely driven by minorities
23%
46%39%
18%
12%
18%19%
100%
100%
88%77%
24%
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1990s 2000s 2010s (p) 2020s (p)0.0
200,000.0
400,000.0
600,000.0
800,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,200,000.0
72%
55%
38% 44%
28%
45%
62%
56%
Owners
Renters
Annual household growth, millions
4Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute projections (p).
Rental housing demand high from 2010 to 2030
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Homeownership Rates by Race/Ethnicity
Race/ethnicity 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030White 70.1 72.4 72.2 70.8 69.7Black 45.2 46.3 44.3 41.1 40.0Hispanic 43.3 45.7 47.3 46.9 48.2Other 53.7 53.0 56.3 55.9 56.9Total 65.3 66.2 65.1 62.7 61.3
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15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75–84 85+ Total-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
-0.7
2.0
0.5
-2.8
3.1
6.8
2.1
0.7
11.6
0.0-0.8
2.3
0.8
-2.3
3.3
5.9
1.3
10.4
2010–20 2020–30
Household Growth by Age Group
millions