changes to household estimates in blue book 2015 household accounts development
TRANSCRIPT
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Changes to household estimates in Blue Book 2015
Household Accounts Development
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Overview
• Why do we have revisions?
• Size of revisions
• Overview of each methodological change
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Why change?
• ESA 1995 changes to ensure comparability in measuring Gross National Income (GNI) across European Union (EU) countries, and,
• Other changes to meet user needs.
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Annual HHFCE level revisions
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Three main drivers of revisions
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Change in annual HHFCE growth rates
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Exhaustiveness Revisions
£, million
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Exhaustiveness - Concealed income/ activity
• Replaces existing National Accounts concealed income/activity model
• New model based in part on HMRC Tax Gaps data
• Coherence adjustments are made during balancing to bring this measure into alignment with GDP(P) and GDP(I).
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Exhaustiveness - Under-coverage of unincorporated small businesses
• Enterprises falling below the Value Added Tax (VAT) and/or Pay As You Earn (PAYE) thresholds, are not recorded on the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR).
• Estimates of missing production by these updated using more recent administrative data provided by HMRC.
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NPISH improvements - Revisions
£, million
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NPISH improvements
• Review of the potential overlap between NCVO data and existing National Accounts production data from the ABS that has led to a reduction in HHFCE
• Assessment of the new offsetting revisions used to align the three approaches to measuring GDP in the Supply has brought about a further reduction in HHFCE.
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£, million
Revisions linked to rental data
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Cross Border Property Income
• Reviewed the recording of imputed rental for• UK residents owning second homes abroad and • foreign residents owning second homes in the UK.
• Changes have;• Decreased HHFCE via Inward imputed rental • Increased HHFCE via Outward imputed rental
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Improvements to actual and imputed housing rentals - CPIH
• Revisions to maintain alignment in annual growth with CPIH
• CPIH - a measure of consumer price inflation that includes Owner Occupiers’ Housing costs (OOH).
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Revisions due to Narcotic Drugs, Alcohol & Tobacco
£, million
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Alcohol/Tobacco & Illegal Drugs
• Removal of adjustments affecting;• COICOP 02.1, Alcohol, and • COICOP 02.2, Tobacco.
• Narcotics data, COICOP 2.3, introduced for the first time in Blue Book 2014
• Correction in BB15 converting dollars to sterling for growth in street prices of narcotics
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Other revisions
£, million
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Any questions?