changes in vegetation cover across the landscape over time at … · 2018-11-08 · changes in...
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Changes in Vegetation
Cover Across the Landscape Over Time at Atqasukand Utqiagvik,
AlaskaJacob Harris
Robert HollisterGrand Valley State University
Arctic Ecology ProgramApril 25, 2018
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13 Utqiaġvik
The original International Tundra Experiment sitesagreed on a common warming manipulationto simulate climate change
Proposed in 1990
1994
2007
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Atqasuk
Utqiaġvik
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Part of the
Arctic Observatory Network Collaborative Research: Sustaining and amplifying the ITEX AON through automation and increased interdisciplinarity of observations Funding: National Science Foundation Collaborators: FIU, Florida International University
UTEP, University of Texas at El PasoUAA, University of Alaska at Anchorage
Beginning in 2009
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Sites are nested within the Arctic System Science grid (ARCSS)
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Sites are nested within the Arctic System Science grid (ARCSS)
100 point grid(1 plot every 10 m) spread across1 kilometer2
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Sites are nested within the Arctic System Science grid (ARCSS)
100 point grid(1 plot every 10 m) spread across1 kilometer2
Black dots represent a subset of the grid (annually sampled)
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Research Goals• Does vegetation cover change over time?
• Can vegetation changes be correlated with environmental factors?
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Methods: environmental data
• precipitation• average air temperature• thaw depth• soil moisture• soil temperature
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Methods: vegetation sampling
• 100 point frame placed over each plot and aligned with permanently placed markers.
• All plant hits recorded• Sampling was done within a two week window, relative to the very first ever date of sampling
• Ensures consistent sampling window
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Methods: vegetation sampling
• All species are used• Vascular plants identified to species• Non‐vascular organisms identified to genus• Plants were lumped by growth form• Standing dead and litter counted as separate groupings
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Deciduous shrubs
• DSHR (Betula nana, Salix pulchra, Salix rotundifolia, and Salix Polaris)• ESHR (Vaccinium vitis‐idaea, Cassiope tetragona, Ledum palustre, Empetrum nigrum)
• GRAM (Poa Arctic, Arctagrostis latifolia, Alopecurus alpinus, Luzulaarctic, Luzula confuse, Hierochloe alpina, Hierochloe pauciflora, Carexaquatilus, Carex rotundata, Carex stans, Eriophorum angustifolium, Eriophorum vaginatum, Eriophorum russeolum)
• FORB (Senecio atropurpureas, Saxifraga spp., Ranunculus spp. Petasites frigidus, Antennaria friesiana, Pedicularis spp.)
• BRYO (all non‐vascular plants, including Sphagnum spp., Dicraumspp., Brachythecium, Rhytidium spp.)
• LICH (all lichens including, Cladonia rangiferina).
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Evergreen shrubs
• DSHR (Betula nana, Salix pulchra, Salix rotundifolia, and Salix Polaris)
• ESHR (Vaccinium vitis‐idaea, Cassiopetetragona, Ledum palustre, Empetrum nigrum)
• GRAM (Poa Arctic, Arctagrostis latifolia, Alopecurus alpinus, Luzula arctic, Luzula confuse, Hierochloealpina, Hierochloe pauciflora, Carex aquatilus, Carex rotundata, Carex stans, Eriophorum angustifolium, Eriophorum vaginatum, Eriophorum russeolum)
• FORB (Senecio atropurpureas, Saxifraga spp., Ranunculus spp. Petasites frigidus, Antennaria friesiana, Pedicularis spp.)
• BRYO (all non‐vascular plants, including Sphagnum spp., Dicraumspp., Brachythecium, Rhytidium spp.)
• LICH (all lichens including, Cladonia rangiferina).
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Forbs
• DSHR (Betula nana, Salix pulchra, Salix rotundifolia, and Salix Polaris)
• ESHR (Vaccinium vitis‐idaea, Cassiope tetragona, Ledumpalustre, Empetrum nigrum)
• GRAM (Poa Arctic, Arctagrostis latifolia, Alopecurus alpinus, Luzula arctic, Luzula confuse, Hierochloe alpina, Hierochloepauciflora, Carex aquatilus, Carex rotundata, Carex stans, Eriophorum angustifolium, Eriophorum vaginatum, Eriophorumrusseolum)
• FORB (Potentila hyparctica, Saxifraga spp., Ranunculus spp. Petasites frigidus, Papaver hultenii, Pedicularis spp.)
( ll l l l d h
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Graminoids
• DSHR (Betula nana, Salix pulchra, Salix rotundifolia, and Salix Polaris)• ESHR (Vaccinium vitis‐idaea, Cassiope tetragona, Ledum palustre, Empetrum nigrum)
• GRAM (Poa Arctica, Arctagrostis latifolia, Arctophila fulva, Alopecurusalpinus, Luzula arctic, Luzula confuse, Hierochloe alpina, Hierochloepauciflora, Carex aquatilus, Carex rotundata, Carex stans, Eriophorumangustifolium, Eriophorum vaginatum, Eriophorum russeolum)
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Methods: statistical analysis
• Shapiro‐Wilks normality test; data fit assumption of normality• R2 values obtained through simple linear regression
• Includes relationships within the broad growth forms and between growth forms and environmental variables:
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Results and Discussion: environmental data• Only statistically significant trend was in Atqasuk thaw depth
• Red = Atqasuk• Blue = Utqiaġvik
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Utqiaġvik
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Utqiaġvik
Deciduous shrubs correlate with graminoids and forbs (R2=0.72, p=0.02 and R2=0.63, p=0.03)*
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Forbs and graminoidscorrelate (R2=0.65, p=0.03)
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Utqiaġvik
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Bryophytes correlate with lichens and litter (R2=0.87, p<0.01 and R2=0.65, p=0.03)*
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Utqiaġvik
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Lichens correlate with litter (R2=0.70, p=0.02)
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Utqiaġvik
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Air temp significant predictor for graminoids(R2=0.73, p=0.01)
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Utqiaġvik
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Air temp significant predictor for forbs (R2=0.59, p=0.04)
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Utqiaġvik
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Thaw depth significant predictor for graminoids(R2=0.56, p=0.05)
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Utqiaġvik
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Atqasuk
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Deciduous shrubs correlate with graminoids(R2=0.88, p=<0.01)
Atqasuk
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Evergreen shrubs correlate with graminoids(R2=0.60, p=0.04)
Atqasuk
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Bryophytes correlate with lichens (R2=0.86, p=<0.01)
Atqasuk
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Year is a significant predictor for deciduous shrubs and graminoids(R2=0.84, p=<0.01 and R2=0.81, p=0.01)
Atqasuk
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Thaw depth is a significant predictor for deciduous shrubs, evergreen shrubs, and graminoids(R2=0.81, p=0.01, R2=0.69, p=0.02, and R2=0.73, p=0.01)
Atqasuk
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Results and Discussion: growth form correlation
• Utqiaġvik• Deciduous shrubs correlate with forbs and graminoids (R2=0.63, p=0.03) and (R2=0.72, p=0.02)
• Graminoids correlate with forbs (R2=0.65, p=0.03)• Bryophytes correlate with lichens (R2=0.87, p<0.01)• Air temperature correlates with forbs and graminoids (R2=0.59, p=0.04) and (R2=0.73, p=0.01)
• Thaw depth correlates with graminoids (R2=0.57, p=0.05)
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Results and Discussion: growth form correlation
• Atqasuk• Deciduous shrubs correlate with graminoids (R2=0.88, p<0.01) • Evergreen shrubs correlates with graminoids (R2=0.60, p=0.04) • Bryophytes correlate with lichens (R2=0.86, p<0.01)• Thaw depth correlates with deciduous shrubs, evergreen shrubs, and graminoids (R2=0.83, p<0.01), (R2=0.69, p=0.02),and (R2=0.73, p=0.01)
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Utqiaġvik
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• Less bryophytes and lichens over time
• More graminoids
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Utqiaġvik
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Atqasuk
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• Less bryophytes and lichens over time
• More deciduous shrubs
• More evergreen shrubs
• More graminoids
Atqasuk
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Conclusion
• Temperature effects (air temperature, thaw depth) seem to be the most obvious driver of cover change in this study
• Optimizing environmental variable data ranges may help to elucidate if the other selected variables have any real influence on driving cover change vegetation groups
• Analysis at the species level may reveal differences between species within groups.
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Acknowledgements
Thank you to International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) network, the National Science Foundation, the Ukpeagvik Inupiat Corporation (UIC), the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP), Florida International University (FIU), and the Grand Valley Arctic Ecology Program for the logistical support and assistance provided during the field seasons. We thank the communities in Alaska.
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Questions & Suggestions?
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DSHR ESHR FORB GRAM BRYO LICH SDEA LITTDeciduous Shrubs (DSHR) 1 - 0.63 0.72 0.07 0.19 0.00 0.53Evergreen Shrubs (ESHR) - 1 - - - - - -
Forbs (FORB) 0.63 - 1 0.65 0.10 0.23 0.00 0.39Graminoids (GRAM) 0.72 - 0.65 1 0.04 0.00 0.06 0.12Bryophytes (BRYO) 0.07 - 0.10 0.04 1 0.87 0.19 0.65
Lichens (LICH) 0.19 - 0.23 0.00 0.87 1 0.02 0.70Standing Dead (SDEA) 0.53 - 0.00 0.06 0.19 0.02 1 0.22
Litter (LITT) 0.00 - 0.39 0.12 0.65 0.70 0.22 1DSHR ESHR FORB GRAM BRYO LICH SDEA LITT
Year (YEAR) 0.19 - 0.03 0.46 0.36 0.13 0.01 0.11Air Temperature (ATEM) 0.34 - 0.59 0.73 0.10 0.03 0.01 0.02
Soil Temperature (STEM) 0.17 - 0.42 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.04Degree Day Sums (DDSU) 0.28 - 0.56 0.65 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.01
Thaw depth (THAW) 0.50 - 0.35 0.57 0.03 0.01 0.10 0.05Soil Moisture (SWVC) 0.27 - 0.40 0.19 0.14 0.18 0.44 0.17Precipitation (PREC) 0.00 - 0.07 0.07 0.14 0.22 0.05 0.06
R2 values Utqiaġvik
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DSHR ESHR FORB GRAM BRYO LICH SDEA LITTDeciduous Shrubs (DSHR) 1 0.56 0.25 0.88 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.19Evergreen Shrubs (ESHR) 0.56 1 0.55 0.60 0.15 0.19 0.01 0.11
Forbs (FORB) 0.25 0.55 1 0.32 0.39 0.41 0.04 0.04Graminoids (GRAM) 0.88 0.60 0.32 1 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.34Bryophytes (BRYO) 0.00 0.15 0.39 0.00 1 0.86 0.00 0.15
Lichens (LICH) 0.01 0.19 0.41 0.01 0.86 1 0.28 0.21Standing Dead (SDEA) 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.28 1 0.38
Litter (LITT) 0.19 0.11 0.04 0.34 0.21 0.21 0.38 1DSHR ESHR FORB GRAM BRYO LICH SDEA LITT
Year (YEAR) 0.81 0.39 0.09 0.84 0.03 0.11 0.51 0.18Air Temperature (ATEM) 0.39 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.12 0.25 0.02
Soil Temperature (STEM) 0.21 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00Degree Day Sums (DDSU) 0.37 0.09 0.07 0.27 0.07 0.17 0.43 0.09
Thaw depth (THAW) 0.83 0.69 0.39 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.05Soil Moisture (SWVC) 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.27Precipitation (PREC) 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.17 0.03 0.02 0.33 0.42
R2 values Atqasuk