changes in telecommunications and biz …...orient. com. low latency 100 tb fix multi gb radio high...

Evolving Next Generation Business

Models

Munich, December 5th 2008

R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 1

| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |

Changes in Telecommunicationsand

Biz Paradigms in this Decade

[email protected]@[email protected]@telecomitalia.it

1

| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center

OUTLINE

�When getting better is for the worse

�The Future is no longer what it used to be

�Technology keeps evolving…so what?

�Business at the time of Ecosystem

�My cell phone in 2015


Models



2


When Getting Better is for the Worse

3



MARKET SPACE

ORGANIZATION


Models



4



MARKET SPACE

ORGANIZATION

Coase Ceiling

Coase Floor

5



MARKET SPACE

ORGANIZATION

Coase Ceiling

Coase Floor

ECOSYSTEMS

ECOSYSTEMS


Models



6


Positioning Options for a Network Operator

�Bit Carrier

�Service Enabler

Overlay Networks of autonomic componentsOverlay Networks of autonomic componentsOverlay Networks of autonomic componentsOverlay Networks of autonomic components

�Service Provider

EcoEcoEcoEco----systems of servicessystems of servicessystems of servicessystems of services

7


Surfing your pond? Looking for new Oceans ?

RevenuesRevenuesRevenuesRevenues OPEXOPEXOPEXOPEX

MarginsMarginsMarginsMargins

Evolution over timeEvolution over timeEvolution over timeEvolution over time

Research and Innovation to:Research and Innovation to:Research and Innovation to:Research and Innovation to:

2. Increase Revenues 2. Increase Revenues 2. Increase Revenues 2. Increase Revenues

expanding offer &expanding offer &expanding offer &expanding offer &

Mkt ShareMkt ShareMkt ShareMkt Share

1. Decrease cost 1. Decrease cost 1. Decrease cost 1. Decrease cost –––– Optimize InvestmentOptimize InvestmentOptimize InvestmentOptimize Investment

3. Enter new Market Spaces3. Enter new Market Spaces3. Enter new Market Spaces3. Enter new Market Spaces

EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS

New MarketsNew MarketsNew MarketsNew Markets


Models



8


The Future is no longer what it used to be

� Predictable Future: Technology Leads

Market Leads

� Few Innovators, Big Investment

Innovation Everywhere, Affordable

� Scarce Resources, Efficiency wins

Abundance, Simplicity wins

� Network (Infrastructure) leads Innovation

Terminals lead Innovation

� Scale factor dominates Production

Customization and Flexibility win

� If you want something, you pay for it

If you look around …

you get a better deal

9


The Future is no longer what it used to be – Standards…


Models



10


The Future is no longer what it used to be –Infrastr. vs Infrastructures

OverlayNetworks

IPv4IPv4IPv4IPv4

IPv6IPv6IPv6IPv6

AS1AS1AS1AS1

AS2AS2AS2AS2

AS3AS3AS3AS3

Private Networks

Other Networks(e.g., Mesh)

11


Technology keeps evolving. So What?

2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded

10+ TB by 2012, in the home

Information is here


Models



12


2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020

13



20 nm, nW, Optics and Radio Embedded

Printed electronics <0,001c per mm2

Connected Objects



Information is here


Models



14


Quanti Computer abbiamo in casa?

2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020

15



20 nm, nW, Optics and Radio Embedded

Printed electronics <0,001c per mm2

Connected Objects



Information is here

4 nm beyond 2020, carbon based

Memristors

“Experienced” objects


Models



16



1 Gbps in every home

10 Mbps everywhere

Bandwidth is no longer a constraint

17


2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020


Models



18



1 Gbps in every home

10 Mbps everywhere

Bandwidth is no longer a constraint

Terminals create local networks

Store and forward managed by the terminal

Terminals get the upper hand (on the network)

19



4/8 k screens - ultra HD

Haptic Interfaces, gesture recogn.

Being there, presence, immersion


Models



20


2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020

21



4/8 k screens - ultra HD

Haptic Interfaces, gesture recogn.

Being there, presence, immersion

Image recognition

Image understanding

Third party service components


Models



22



Variety of sensors

Flexibility, integration, local data processing

Context awareness

23


2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020


Models



24



Variety of sensors

Flexibility, integration, local data processing

Context awareness

Micro actuators

Wireless connection, local awareness

Autonomic Systems

25



Statistical data processing, metadata

Semantics structures

Value shifts from information to relations


Models



26



Statistical data processing, metadata

Semantics structures

Value shifts from information to relations

Cloud based data processing, storage

Razor thin margins, commodity model

Cloudy future for the cloud, cloud at the edges?

27


Technology Roadmaps Impact on Demand

UpstreamUpstreamUpstreamUpstream

BandwidthBandwidthBandwidthBandwidth

PresencePresencePresencePresence

Fading BndrFading BndrFading BndrFading Bndr

Real vs Virt.Real vs Virt.Real vs Virt.Real vs Virt.

Here Here Here Here

and Nowand Nowand Nowand Now

PersonalPersonalPersonalPersonal

IdentityIdentityIdentityIdentity

ContextContextContextContext

AwarenessAwarenessAwarenessAwareness

SeamlessSeamlessSeamlessSeamless

Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.

MassiveMassiveMassiveMassive

AutomationAutomationAutomationAutomation

Data Data Data Data

ResilienceResilienceResilienceResilience

ZeroZeroZeroZero CostCostCostCost

High QualityHigh QualityHigh QualityHigh Quality

StorageStorageStorageStorage

ProcessingProcessingProcessingProcessingDisplayDisplayDisplayDisplay

SensorsSensorsSensorsSensors

BiometricsBiometricsBiometricsBiometrics

HandheldHandheldHandheldHandheld

RoboticsRoboticsRoboticsRobotics

RadioRadioRadioRadio

FibreFibreFibreFibre

Image RecogImage RecogImage RecogImage Recog

EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy

SecuritySecuritySecuritySecurity

DevicesDevicesDevicesDevicesTerminalsTerminalsTerminalsTerminals Real LifeReal LifeReal LifeReal Life

InterfacesInterfacesInterfacesInterfaces

AIAIAIAI


Models



28


Technology Roadmaps Impact on Connectivity Infrastr. Offer

Symmetric Symmetric Symmetric Symmetric

BandwidthBandwidthBandwidthBandwidth

MultipleMultipleMultipleMultiple

AccessAccessAccessAccess

BurstBurstBurstBurst

Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.

TransactionTransactionTransactionTransaction

Orient. Com.Orient. Com.Orient. Com.Orient. Com.

Low LatencyLow LatencyLow LatencyLow Latency

100 TB Fix100 TB Fix100 TB Fix100 TB Fix

Multi GBMulti GBMulti GBMulti GB


HighHighHighHigh

resilenceresilenceresilenceresilence

Flexible RsFlexible RsFlexible RsFlexible Rs

usageusageusageusage

ZeroZeroZeroZero CostCostCostCost

High QualityHigh QualityHigh QualityHigh Quality


ProcessingProcessingProcessingProcessing


RoutingRoutingRoutingRouting

FibreFibreFibreFibre

AutonomicsAutonomicsAutonomicsAutonomics


TransportTransportTransportTransport

Local AreaLocal AreaLocal AreaLocal Area


DevicesDevicesDevicesDevicesTerminalsTerminalsTerminalsTerminals

Network Network Network Network NodesNodesNodesNodes

29


Technology Roadmaps Impact on IT Platforms Infrastructure

MassiveMassiveMassiveMassive

Distrib. DBsDistrib. DBsDistrib. DBsDistrib. DBs

EcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystems

SupportSupportSupportSupport

OutsourcedOutsourcedOutsourcedOutsourced

Proc. MgtProc. MgtProc. MgtProc. Mgt

Call CentresCall CentresCall CentresCall Centres

supportsupportsupportsupport

MetalayerMetalayerMetalayerMetalayer

GenerationGenerationGenerationGeneration

TrustedTrustedTrustedTrusted

EnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironment

EcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystems

Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.

VirtualisationVirtualisationVirtualisationVirtualisation

Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.

TransactionTransactionTransactionTransaction

Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.

ValueValueValueValue

GenerationGenerationGenerationGeneration


ProcessingProcessingProcessingProcessing


Data MgtData MgtData MgtData Mgt

Self Self Self Self AssemblingAssemblingAssemblingAssembling

RoboticsRoboticsRoboticsRobotics


DataDataDataDataLeveragingLeveragingLeveragingLeveraging

SecuritySecuritySecuritySecurity


DevicesDevicesDevicesDevicesTerminalsTerminalsTerminalsTerminals

ImageImageImageImageRecognitionRecognitionRecognitionRecognition

AIAIAIAI


Models



30


The long, thin tale

Σ Lt < Coase Floor

31


Ecosystems are born: The Apple Apps Store


Models



32


Ecosystems are born: The Apple Apps Store

33


Ecosystems are born: Androids and the Others


Models



34


Is there a Biz Opportunity (for us) in an Ecosystems’ World?

1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months 1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months 1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months 1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months ---- WorldWorldWorldWorld

20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months 20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months 20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months 20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months ---- Telecom Italia, ItaliaTelecom Italia, ItaliaTelecom Italia, ItaliaTelecom Italia, Italia

60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple 60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple 60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple 60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple

5.700 Ml E for TIM5.700 Ml E for TIM5.700 Ml E for TIM5.700 Ml E for TIM

35



TODAYTODAYTODAYTODAY

HE

ALT

H C

AR

EH

EA

LTH

CA

RE

HE

ALT

H C

AR

EH

EA

LTH

CA

RE


Models



36



TOMORROWTOMORROWTOMORROWTOMORROW

HE

ALT

H C

AR

EH

EA

LTH

CA

RE

HE

ALT

H C

AR

EH

EA

LTH

CA

RE

37


�What is the Integral of the “tale”?

�Do we know how to solve it?


Models



38


Ecosystems Enablers: Seeds

AuthenticationAuthenticationAuthenticationAuthentication

LocalizationLocalizationLocalizationLocalization

ProfilingProfilingProfilingProfiling

MapsMapsMapsMaps



� Main site : Venice San Salvador

� People from T.I . with technical, economic, social skill Consumer, Mobile and Top Client DivisionsTechnology and Operations

People from other Operators, Industry - CE – IT - Isti tut. � 12-16 post doct from all over the world

� Objectives:� Identification of new biz opportunities

in “telecom enabled” ecosystems

� Future Telecommunications Showcase

The Future Centre


Models



40


TILab

Working at the Future Centre

Core FC

Weekly• brainstorming new ecosystem• ecosystem presentation on site

Monthly• ecosystem report• engaging the players – open event

HY-Milestone• Report: new biz models for new ecosystems• Event: Partnering for competition

YE-Milestone• Report: Opportunities, Challenges to get there• Event: The fabric for the future

5 of 1 leading 3 engaging 10 networking with 100

41


Technologies Sensors/AwarOptical Tags

Bar Codes/SemDNA/Nano MrkrsImage Localiz

RFID Print. Elect

OBJECTS Detection SystemsNetwork Mirror

CarsHand readers

Cell Phones/CaCell Phones

NFC

Business at the time of Ecosystems


Models



42


Technologies

OBJECTS

DetectionSystems

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

AM

BI

EN

T

43


Technologies

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.


AM

BI

EN

T

Ntw Pl/HostGoogle

Snapfish

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

OBJECTS

DetectionSystems


Models



44


Technologies

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.


AM

BI

EN

T

Platforms

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

Aggregators

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

OBJECTS Detection Systems

45


Technologies

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.


AM

BI

EN

T

Platforms

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

META Data C.

Stat.MeaningE.

Pers.Aggreg.

Ambient Creat.

Serv.Prov.Aggregators

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

CO

NT

EX

T-M

EA

NIN

G

OBJECTS DetectionSystems


Models



46


Technologies

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.


AM

BI

EN

T

Piattaforme

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

META Data C.

Stat.MeaningE.

Pers.Aggreg.

Ambient Creat.

Devices

Logistics

CRM

PHARMA

News/Mg

Serv.Prov.Aggregators

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

CO

NT

EX

T-M

EA

NIN

G

Industry

NE

W P

RO

CE

SS

ES

OBJECTS DetectionSystems

47


Playing the Ecosystem Game: Future Industrial Districts


Models



48


Playing the Ecosystem Game: eEducation at School

49


Playing the Ecosystem Game: Tourisms in the next Decade


Models



50


Playing the Ecosystem Game: Future of Retail

51


Telecommunications 2015-A user view


Models



52



53




Models



54



55




Models



56


The vineyard The vineyard The vineyard The vineyard

Wine tasting Wine tasting Wine tasting Wine tasting

Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Your dietYour dietYour dietYour diet

Wine HistoryWine HistoryWine HistoryWine History





Models








Models






Changes in Telecommunications

& Biz Paradigms in this Decade

[email protected]@[email protected]@telecomitalia.it

Thanks

changes in telecommunications and biz …...orient. com. low latency 100 tb fix multi gb radio high...

Documents