changes in land cover and land use and carbon dynamics in ... · conceitos de pesquisa de...

Changes in land cover and land use and carbon dynamics in a frontier in expansion in

western Amazonia, Acre, Brazil

Foster BrownWHR C/UFAC

Conceitos de pesquisa de sustentabilidade e de proteção da Floresta Amazônica/ Simpósio científico no contexto do Ano Brasil-Alemanha de Ciência, Tecnologia e

Inovação 2010/2011,

University of Applied Sciences, Hamburg, Germany

04 March 2011GOES12

02mar11 1445

www.cptec.inpe.br1

A conversation in 1991

• Well-known scientist from Pará: “Foster, where are you going?”

• Foster: “To Acre.”

• Scientist: “To that end of the world?”

• Who wants to take care of the ‘end of the world?’

• As a result, we began a concerted effort to portray Acre as the Center of the World (later of the Universe).

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/BlueMarble/Images/BlueMarble_2005_SAm_09_4096.png2

Beware what you wish for…

you may get it.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/BlueMarble/Images/BlueMarble_2005_SAm_09_4096.png

Former end

of the world

3

250 km

1.000 km

750 km500 km

Acre -centric

More people (~30 million) reside within 750 km of Acre than live

in the entire Brazilian Amazon (or in metropolitan Rio de Janeiro).

Most of them speak Spanish, Quechua or Aymara.

They are just an Interoceanic highway away.

Acre

Govenro do Acre 20094

Acre and contiguous Madre de Dios, Peru and Pando, Bolivia (MAP Region): A disproportional share of mega-investment experiments.

(sources: M. Steinenger/ NASA, various)

Beni

CobijaRondônia

Pando

Lago Titicaca

Acre

HIghwayIñapari- Pacific–US$ 810 millon

UHE St. Antonio3,600 MW

UHE Jirau3,900 MW

UHE Binational3,000 MW

US$ 10 billion

HIghwayGuayaramerin-Yucumo US$460 millon

PuertoMaldonado

4,000 km de Navegable Rivers

Rio Branco

Highway toCruzeiro do SulUS$ 250 millon

Inambari Dam

2,000 MW

US$ 4 billion.

Iberia

CachuelaEsperanza1,000 MW

5

Inambari

CachuelaEsperanza

Binacional

Sto. Antonio

Jirau

15+ billion dollar experiment of hydroelectric dams being constructed

or planned for SW Amazonia.

RioBranco

Cobija

PuertoMaldonado

ACRE

MADRE DE DIOS

PANDO

6

Acre – epicenters for two majordroughts – 2005 and 2010

2005 2010

7

One of the focal areas for the drop in net primary production is Acre

Acre

8

Feijó, Acre, Brasil 20-21 de março de 2009

Observations of Indigenous Leaders in Acre

9

Concerns of the Nova Vida Shanenawa village, 20mar09 before the drought de 2010.

10

Observations of Brazil nut gathers and rubber tappers

from Madre de Dios, Acre and Pando – 19Oct10, Iberia,

Madre de Dios.

11

Madre de Dios

12

Acre

13

Pando

14

A philosophical question

Is the burden of proof on those who would say that

these climate perturbations are a result of our

geophysical experiments or on those who would say that they are not a result of our geophysical experiments?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ The_Thinker

15

Most recently, Experiment of fixing global geophysical

experiments. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Acre and California

to develop subnational agreements on carbon credits (Nov10)

Acre Agencia, nov1016


Getting back to carbon and land cover change.Nothing is created or destroyed, all is transformed .

(a more poetic description of the law of mass conservation).

Carbon in the landscape or political unit ≈ carbon in biomass + carbon in soil

17


A mass-balance approach for a stratified landscape or political unit

1

2

3

45 (… n)

C = carbon in the landscape, Av = Area of component v, zv = soil

depth with carbon exchange to/from the atmosphere, Bv = biomass per

unit volume, fv fraction of carbon in biomass, ρv = soil density, Sv = soil

carbon fraction. (Brown et al. 2001)

[it is possible to integrate Bv by zv to create Bv by area.]18


Conceptual model based on elementary calculus – differentiating with respect to

time. (Brown et al. 2001)

Carbon

flux

associated

with a

landscape

or political

unit (Acre)

Change in

area (dA/dt)

(1)

Change in

biomass (dB/dt)

(fixed area)

(2)

Change from

soil carbon

transport

(3)

Change in

soil carbon

(4)

Deforestation.

Pasture

>>sugar cane,

Expansion of

bamboo

Secondary growth,

mature forest

dynamics, logging,

fire impact.

Erosion/

Deposition

Decomposition

Fixation

19

Carbon fluxes associated with biomass in a landscape.

1

2

34

5

Fire

LoggingGrowth/

Mortal.

De-

forestation

dB x Area

dt

dA x (difference in carbon contents)

dt

pasture forest

Other factor: time interval for integration:1 yr, 10 yrs, 100 yrs.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/BlueMarble/Images/BlueMarble_2005_SAm_09_4096.png20

Carbon dynamics in Acre (integrating over a year)

Type of flux Process Scale of Area Estimates

dA/dt Deforestation 102 to 103 km2/yr~ 6 million tC/yrSee subsequent

slides

dA/dtBamboo expansion/

contraction105 km2 ?

dB/dt Logging activity 104 km2 ?

dB/dt Forest fires 103 km2 ~3 million tC in 2005 (?)

dB/dtDrought

impacts/carbonsequestration

105 km2

~+/- 7 million tC/yr(see SOM Phillips et

al. 2009)

dB/dt Forest regrowth 103 km2 ? 21


The drought of 2005 caused forests to stop fixing carbon and start releasing carbon

Phillips et al. (2009) Science.

22

Estimated deforestation by 2030 following a Business-As-Usual projection (adapt. Soares et al. 2006)

23

Acre Government Goals for Reduced Emissions

from Deforestation (RED)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

14001

99

5

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Km2 / ano Redução km2

Média histórica 2 (2001 - 2010)

Média histórica 1 ( 1996 - 2005)

Média histórica 3 (2006 - 2015)

Linha de base 1

Linha de base 2

Linha de base 3

Variables 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 TOTAL

Base line (km2/yr) 602 514 255

Goal of avoided deforestation (km2) 1.438 1.108 655 3.200

Avoided Deforestation (km2) 1.570 1.460 618 3.649

Avoided Emissions in the state (tCO2) 57.462.000 53.447.302 22.635.166 133.544.468

Proposed Avoided Emissions in Pirority Areas (tCO2 ) 62.500.000 Gov. Acre 201024

05out05, Leste do Acre

Carbon fluxes from deforestationmore complex than appear.

• The previous graph generated from data from INPE and assuming 100 tC/ha carbon density (alive aboveground biomass)

• 123 tC/ha (derived from Salimon et al. Sub.)

• Dead and belowground biomass carbon not included – systematic difference of ~30%. (Brown et al. 1992).

• Difference (123 tC/ha x 1.3 / 100 tC/ha - 1) = + 60%

• Is the reported carbon flux the real carbon flux in REDD projects?

• Official deforestation rates also often diverge.

25

Comparison of INPE and Acre State deforestation rates

20%

45%

-5%

-35%

15%

45%

110%

6%

-27%

37%

Relative differences in Acre State deforestation rates between PRODES/INPE and Acre-Imazon (Brown et al. in sub.)

26

05out05Leste do Acre

Deforestation rates from 1995 -2004

• Median annual difference: 18%.

• Cumulative difference of 16% in ten years.

• Differences may well be due to differing operational definitions of deforestation.

• Suggestion: use a standardized method that is simple and direct for REDD calculations.

27

Is estimating the carbon dynamics the main goal, or is determining the

importance of forests for climate?

• What about transpiration services, avoiding aerossols from biomass burning, etc?

• They increase the importance of maintaining forests, but also increase the uncertainty of measurements.

• A situation similar to measuring the impact of air travel.

28

Conclusions

• Be careful what you wish for – Acre has become the center of the world– Crossroads for mega-investments in dams and interoceanic highways

– Epicenter for droughts and reduced net primary production

– Subnational discussions of carbon credits and REDD

• Carbon dynamics in Acre becoming increasingly influenced by dB/dt – changing carbon stocks due to climate and fire impacts, with implications for those who depend on forest productivity.

• Estimates of landcover change are most accurately made for multi-year periods. 29

Thank you/Obrigado!Foster Brown

Woods Hole Research Center /

Universidade Federal do Acre

[email protected]/[email protected]

55-68-9984-0336Parroquia, Iberia, Madre de Dios, Perú

09Mai200930

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