changes in employment in the principal industrial fields: january 1

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the NationalBureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: Business Cycles and Unemployment

Volume Author/Editor: Committee of the President's Conferenceon Unemployment, and a Special Staff of the National Bureau

Volume Publisher: NBER

Volume ISBN: 0-87014-003-5

Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/comm23-1

Publication Date: 1923

Chapter Title: Changes in Employment in the Principal IndustrialFields: January 1, 1920 to March 31, 1922

Chapter Author: Willford I. King

Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4663

Chapter pages in book: (p. 80 - 100)

CHAPTER VI

CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT IN THE PRINCIPALINDUSTRIAL FIELDS

JANUARY 1, 1920 TO MARCH 31, 1922

WILLFORD I. KING

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

I. THE COMPARATIVE MEASURABILITY OF EMPLOYMENT ANDUNEMPLOYMENT

How important was the reduction in the volume of employmentbrought about by the decline in business activity occurring between1920 and 1922? The object of this chapter is to answer the abovequestion.'

In Chapter IV, W. A. Berridge has derived an index number showingthe fluctuations in employment which. have occurred in recent years,but he makes no attempt to measure the absolute amount of unemploy-ment at any time. In taking this course, he is following the precedentaccepted by most statisticians. The fact is that unemployment is sodifficult to define that there are likely to be as many definitions as thereare writers on the subject. There may, however, be some points onwhich accord is possible. Most persons, presumably, would say thatonly those desiring gainful employment can be subject to unemployment.But who are those that seek gainful employment? Experience showsthat thousands of persons are on the border line. Many women workintermittently. The same holds true of many old men and boys. Thenumber seeking gainful work is then, at best, subject only to approxima-tion and not to accurate measurement.

Furthermore, even if the number seeking employment could beascertained, how could we determine when an individual was involun-tarily idle? Is the man who is sick unemployed? Granted that he is,if he remains disabled for years, does he still continue in this status?Shall we count an aged man whose health permits him to work onlyoccasionally as unemployed for the remainder of the time? How shallwe class the striker? What about the man who is eager for work at$1.00 an hour but refuses work at half the pay?

'More detailed information concerning this query and also regarding earnings andhours worked is to be found in the report of the National Bureau of Economic Researchentitled, "Employment, Hours, and Earnings in Prosperity and Depression."

78

EMPLQYMENT IN 1920-1922 79

True, arbitrary rules can be made to fit all of these cases, but theshould not be overlooked that these rules must be empirical and

may represent the exact views of few but the framers. As Mr. Wolman;hows in a later chapter, the British have worked out elaborate definitions

use in the administration of unemployment insurance. TheseJefinitions are, however, exceedingly complex and require constantinterpretation and expansion.

Since it is so difficult to obtain a definite measure of unemployment,it is desirable to attack the problem from another angle. For a longbime Massachusetts has furnished monthly records of the number ofpersons on the pay-rolls of part or all of the factories in that state. Therehas been a marked growth during recent years in the available supplyof this type of statistics.

Owing to the difficulty of defining unemployment, we mayhesitate to attempt a statistical measurement, but in these pay-rollrecords have we not a source of accurate information concerningemployment?

One can safely say that pay-roll records represent perfectly definitefacts and that their use eliminates most of the difficulties connectedwith definitions and subjective opinions. If pay-roll statistics areavailable in complete form, one can ascertain not only the fluctuations inthe number of persons on the pay-roll but also the changes occurringin the number of employee-hours worked. With complete data of thissort at hand, it would certainly be possible to answer the query madeat the beginning of this chapter and show the magnitude of the cyclicalvariations in employment.

However, until very recent years, as Miss Van Kleeck points outin Chapter XIX, the data of this sort available have been decidedly scanty.Recent statistics from other states have proved that records for Massa-chusetts factories indicate reasonably well the course of factory employ-ment in the country as a whole, and hence we can estimate with someconfidence the course of factory employment for several decades;' butcan we assume that fluctuations in factory pay-rolls are representativeof the oscillations occurring in agriculture, in merchandising, in banks,or in public utilities? Such an assumption takes too much for granted.Is it not equally probable that every decline in the combined factorypay-roll is met by an increase in the pay-roll of some other industrialfield? Further, are we sure that changes in the numbers on the pay-rolls are reasonably good indications of changes in the volume of employ-ment, even in the manufacturing field, when we remember that Mr.Brissenden's figures, recorded in the preceding chapter, indioate thatpart-time employment plays an important role?

'Perhaps estimates for years previous to 1920 might also be successfully madeupon the basis of Edmund E. Day's indexes of physical production.

80 BUSINESS CYCLES AND UNEMPLOYMENT

With so many queries unanswered, it is not surprising that, evenamong experts, there has been great divergence of opinion concerningthe volume of unemployment in any period of depression. Estimatesof the number idle in 1921 have varied by several millions. The needfor a quantitative measurement is illustrated well by Mr. Wolman'sdescription of the experience of the British Government in financingits unemployment insurance fund, and by the difficulty that Mr. Malleryfound in securing data suitable for measuring the wage diminutionsduring a depression so that he could compare this quantity with the sizeof the potential public works reserve fund.'

II. THE SCOPE AND METHOD OF THE PRESENT INVESTIGATION

The need of more complete knowledge along this line seemed sogreat that, in planning the present report, a nation-wide inquiry wasundertaken with the purpose of securing the requisite information.The leading results of this investigation appear in the following pages.The specific questions which this inquiry was designed to answer are asfollows:

1. Do the high wages characterizing boom times lead many womenand others not normally engaged in gainful occupations temporarilyto work for wages or salaries?

2. Are fluctuations in different industries complementary, so thatthe total amount of employment in all fields remains approximatelyconstant? For example, do agricultural laborers or the sons anddaughters of farmers or other small employers become employees infactories during boom times and return to their former callings when thedepression sets in?

3. Are the fluctuations in factory employment—the only field forwhich we have records—characteristic of the fluctuations in the entireindustrial field including agriculture, merchandising, finance, transpor-tation, and the hand trades?

4. Are changes in the number of persons on the pay-rolls good indica-tors of the variations occurring in the total volume of employment,or are such variations materially affected by the existence of part-timeand overtime employment?

5. Is the existence of much part time or overtime widespread oris it mainly confined to a few industries?

6 Are large and small scale enterprises affected by unemploymentto about the same relative extent?

Three questionnaires were devised in the hope of obtaining thematerial necessary to answer the above queries. The first schedulewas designed to secure directly from employees information showing thetime they lost through various causes; their hours of work, pay, and family

'Sec Chaps. XVIII and XIV.

EMPLOYMENT IN 1920-1922 81

ncome. The effort to secure an adequate number of voluntary enumera-who would canvass employees and obtain records of their employ-

rnent was not a success. Since the funds available did not permit ofbhe hiring of any considerable number of enumerators, this inquiry wasaot pushed and the results obtained have but slight value.

The second questionnaire was distributed through the courtesy ofbhe Federal Bureau of Markets and Crop Estimates to their TownshipDrop Reporters. It asked for the occupations followed during the lastbwo years by members of farmers' families and also for the number ofDmployees hiredby each farmer, the hours they worked, and the wages'they received. Some 8,500 schedules were returned, most of which wereround to contain usable information.

The third questionnaire asked employers in other industries to furnishLnformation similar to that requested of farmers. The United StatesCensus Bureau assisted materially in distributing these schedules.Numerous teachers of economics and a few other teachers and theirstudents, a considerable number of secretaries of Chambers of Commerce,

a large number of individual business men devoted much time, effort,expense to assisting in the collection of the data.

The Bureau of Railway Economics furnished practically completedata for the railways. The United States Chamber of Commercecircularized its members in behalf of the study. In addition to suchvoluntary efforts, paid enumerators obtained numerous records fromemployers in the cities of New York, Chicago, and St. Louis. In all,uearly 3,000 satisfactory records were obtained, covering all sections of theUnited States and most of the important fields of industry. The scheduleswere edited and verified by the National Bureau of Economic Research,

the Bureau of the Census assumed the burden of tabulating the data.Manifestly, a large proportion of all the records received, especially

•n the case of smaller concerns, rest upon estimates rather than uponLctual accounts. The estimates, however, relate to things concerningwhich the employer, as a rule, is far from ignorant; hence there is little

to suppose that accidental errors in the estimates have materially%ffected the accuracy of the averages. The belief that the estimates are;ubstantially accurate is supported by the fact that, in almost everyLndustry, the reported data show but a small scatter.

It is highly probable that the changes shown by the data are morebypical than are the absolute sizes of some of the quantities. In manyLnstances, for example, an employer cannot estimate very accurately thethsolute number of hours worked per week by his employees, but he isikely to know approximately how much the average working day hasncreased or diminished in a given period.

'For wage records see the detailed report entitled, "Employment, Hours, andEarnings in Prosperity and Depression."

6


Another question of moment is whether enough reports have beendeliberately falsified to vitiate the averages. We have no guarantee ofcourse that some such cases have not occurred, but it is believed that thefact that the schedules were obtained under the auspices of the Bureauof the Census and that assurance was given to informants that all informa-tion would be considered confidential has minimized any tendency tofalsification which might otherwise have existed. The similarity of theitems in the reports received from different employers in the same busi-ness leads one to believe that the results are reasonably dependable.

It also is worthy of mention that schedules collected from similarestablishments by hired enumerators and those collected by mail leadto identical conclusions regarding tendencies within any given field ofemployment. The pay-roll data secured from factories show the samegeneral trend that appears in similar records published by governmentaldepartments, both state and federal. On the whole, then, the evidenceseems to be sufficient to warrant the belief that the results of this inquiryare for the most part reliable.

IlL RESULTS

Records were secured from employers who hire about one-tenth of allthe employees in the United States. However, the proportion differsradically in different industries, a fact that is illustrated by the entriesin Table XV. Under these circumstances, a total or average of all thesamples would be highly misleading. To secure significant results, ithas been necessary to reweight all of the items according to the number ofworkers employed in the industry in question. The process followed hasbeen first to estimate the ratio of the total number of employees in theUnited States falling in the given category on August 15, 1920 to thenumber who on the same date were working for the reporting employ-ers, and then to multiply all items of earnings or hours by these ratios.In this manner, a record is obtained which portrays, as accurately as thedata will permit, the results for the Continental United States. Owingto the paucity of existing information concerning the number of employeesworking for large and for small scale enterprises in such fields as the handtrades, public, domestic, and professional service, or commerce and trade,the weights used may sometimes be very faulty, but, fortunately, thenature of the data is such that it is almost certain that errors arisingfrom this source will not invalidate any of the major conclusions of thestudy.

Fortunately, answers have been secured for all six of the questionspreviously cited as the goal of this study.

Tables XVI and XVII show no indication that there has been anynoticeable migration from one industry to another of the sons anddaughters either of farmers or of other employers. All that is apparent is

XV

.—A

N E

STIM

AT

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11,671

12,312

12,993

11,810

11,717

12,324

12,909

11,786

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30

24

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38

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44

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090

93

107

100

73

8394

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102

99

113

104

85

113

134

124

98

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Transportation

Commerce and trade

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161

197

273

64

125

174

220

58

134

192

232

60

152

198

277 69

163

201

295

67

131

182

249

63

125

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265

66

138

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311 75

165

198

32570

Public and professional service

Domestic and personal service

Notgainfullyoccupied

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unkn

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406

22

1,484

133

6,614

278 16

1,126

121

6,614

221 29

423

125

6,612

380 23

1,371

115

6,612

405

24

1,423

124

6,611

287 22

1,057

108

6,611

225

31

444

122

6,611

423

26

1,290

127

6,609

420

26

1,336

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27 29 130 11

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5,68

3 37

553 67

5,72

3 38

228 79

6,004 35

650

715,610 37

664 75

5,596

36

604 74

5,651 33

245 88

5,96

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716 81

5;51

3 37

722

845,

508 40


a growth in numbers in almost every industry, the growth doubtless beingdue to the fact that many of the younger boys and girls working in 1922finished school during the period under consideration. The recordsreceived furnish, then, no evidence whatever that any material part ofthe additional force of employees recruited in boom times by manufac-turers or other large scale employers is drawn from the households ofsmall employers, farmers, or others working on their own account.

Table XVIII measures the estimated changes in the total number olhours worked by different classes of farm employees in the differenisections of the United States. Though one is impressed by the verygreat seasonal fluctuations in agricultural employment, there is no evi-dence of any startling change brought about by the business cycle!There was apparently a slight tendency for farmers to hire feweiemployees during the depression. There is certainly no evidence thaithe farmers took on any considerable number of the workers whom thcfactories, mines, and railways laid off. Since the sample of farms securedis large enough to be representative this conclusion seems to rest onfirm foundation and strengthens the indications given by the figures per•taming to business men's families that the depression was accompanied b3a striking decline in the total volume of employment in the United States

Table XIX records the estimated numbers of employees who were orthe pay-rolls of the various industries in each quarter. The last columiof the table shows the per cent of change in this number taking placbetween the peak and trough of the cycle. Allowance has been madfor the seasonal variations in many industries.1 The figures show thatbusiness depression brought about a reduction in the number employed iievery industry except the hand trades and the trivial increase in that ornfield is scarcely sufficient to keep pace with the growth of population.reduction in all industries amounted to about 4,000,000 workers orone-seventh of all persons employed at the crest of the 1920 boomThere is, however, a striking difference between industries in the degreito which they were affected. Mines, steam railways, anddealing in metals, metallic, and miscellaneous products lost very larg4fractions of their employees, while the construction industry and factorie:in general, with the exception of paper and printing establishments, alshad a notable falling off in the numbers employed. On the other handthe records for agriculture, finance, public utilities,2 and wholesali

1 [n such industries, (namely agriculture, building and construction, other hantrades, public, professional and domestic service, transportation, wholesale trade, amestablishments manufacturing food, drink, tobacco, lumber, paper, and deriveproducts) the per cents stated represent the maximum declines between corresponding quarters of 1920 and 1921 or of 1920 and 1922. This same procedure ifollowed in other tables of this chapter.

2 See sub-title "Other Transportation" in all tables. This item include8 telephones and telegraphs.

TA

BL

E X

VII

L—

EM

PL0Y

EE

-uom

ts W

OR

KE

D P

ER

WE

EK

ON

AO

FR

EPR

ESE

NT

AT

IVE

FtutMs

OF

ThE

CO

NT

INE

NT

AL

UN

ITE

D

STATES

Sex

Em

ploy

ees

wor

king

by

Num

ber

offa

rms

enum

erat

ed

Sect

ion

of th

eU

nite

d St

ates

1920

1021

1922

Firs

tqu

arte

rSe

cond

quar

ter

Thi

rdqu

arte

rFo

urth

quar

ter

.

Firs

tqu

arte

rSe

cond

quar

ter

Thi

rdqu

arte

rFo

urth

quar

ter

Firs

tqu

arte

r

Male

p 1 1

Fem

ale

Month...

Day

J

Wee

k....

j

Day

6,348

988

2,557

2,136

667

5,978

905

2,417

2,000

656

5,687

833

2,258

1,960

636

5,629

835

2,218

1,940

636

EntireU.S

Northeast

North Central

South

West

Entire ILLS

Northeast

NorthCentral

South

West

EntireU.S

Northeast

North Central

South

West

Entire U.S

Northeast

North Central

South

West

222,582

51,700

59,142

88,075

23.665

128,176

22,890

15,126

76,237

13,923

26,836

6,700

7,051

11,450

1,635

31,528

4,864

3,527

21,803

1,334

306,022

64,126

96,542

109,101

36,253

189,078

38,211

34,216

91,205

25,446

32,804

7,818

9,235

13,417

2,334

43,365

7,071

5,426

28,643

2,225

336,664

74,929

107,793

109,336

44,606

303,803

65,945

79,051

103,163

55,644

37,100

10,505

11,245

12,358

2,992

56,815

14,294

7,199

29,573

5,749

260,342

60,485

75,642

96,640

27,675

189,105

38,564

35,108

88,922

26,511

28,756

7,716

7,503

12,003

1,534

41,663

7,642

4,135

25,999

3,887

218,639

52,467

56,244

86,713

23,215

121,269

23,412

15,720

68,407

13,730

25,996

6,427

6,162

11,874

1,533

25,261

4,433

3,421

16,021

1,386

301,533

66,901

91,360

106,869

36,403

195,994

39,870

37,142

92,827

26,155

32,100

7,889

8,849

13,211

2,151

42,409

7,018

4,793

27,953

2,645

329,119

76,449

100,717

106,824

45,129

300,839

66,606

75,095

103,

681

54,557

36,4

4410

,040

10,327

13,083

2,994

52,338

14,840

7,376

25,024

5,098

255,650

61,987

71,846

94,443

27,3

74185,794

39,469

32,613

86,680

27,032

28,131

7,734

6,77

912,012

1,606

36,659

6,936

4,095

22,694

2,934

220,421

53,663

55.851

87,252

23,655

129,931

23,316

17,309

75,342

13,964

28,337

6,705

6,741

13,141

1,750

27,134

3,610

3,406

18,628

1,490

C '-4 :2:

)-4

Co b3 -J

TA

BL

E X

IX.—

AN

EST

IMA

TE

FO

R T

HE

UN

ITE

D S

TA

TE

S O

F T

HE

TO

TA

LO

F E

MPL

OY

EE

S O

N T

HE

PA

Y-R

OL

LS

OF

AL

L E

NT

ER

PRIS

ES

OF

WH

AT

EV

ER

SIZ

E

cx 00

Indu

stry

Tho

usan

ds o

femployees

on th

e pa

y-ro

llsMatzfiurn

cyclical

decl

ine

Cpe

r ce

nt)

1920

1921

1922

Firs

tSe

cond

Thi

rdFo

urth

Firs

tSe

cond

Thi

rdFo

urth

Firs

tqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

r

Allindustries

27,232

28,352

29,180

27,416

24,828

24,600

25,078

24,774

24,147

14

Agr

icul

ture

1,370

1,871

2,300

1,724

1,355

1,823

2,204

1,666

1,372

4

Extractionof minerals

1,047

1,072

1,120

1,077

1,011

960

944

862

819

27

Euildingandconstruction

1,240

1,492

1,600

1,307

1,104

1,211

1,415

1,404

1,320

19

Other hand trades

548

575

550

568

554

581

505

572

561

0.7d

Finance

390

399

400

306

398

384

380

373

374

7

Public and professional Bervce

3,075

3,022

3,000

3,047

3,120

2,973

2.940

3,161

3,269

2

Domestic and personal service

2,683

2,763

2,820

2,781

2,741

2,753

2,786

2,701

2,661

3

All transportation

3,169

3,243

3,420

3,352

2,847

2,739

2,865

2,922

2,674

16

Steam railways

2,032

2,044

2,200

2,101

1,724

1,599

1,710

1,741

1,586

22

Other transportation

1,136

1,199

1.220

1,251

1,123

1,140

1,155

1,181

1,088

6

Commerce and trade

2,502

2,580

2,600

2,656

2,507

2,527

2,520

2,582

2,477

3

Who

lesa

le28

830

330

028

627

428

428

427

326

56

Retail

2,274

2,277

2,300

2,370

2,233

2,242

2,236

2,309

2,212

3

All factories

11,149

11,334

11,370

10,507

9,189

8,648

8,460

8,532

8,621

26

Food, drink, andtobacco

1,048

1,015

1,120

1,075

881

858

959

952

861

16Lumber and its

prod

ucts

985

1,062

1,050

912

839

928

915

852

855

15

Metals and

met

alproducts°

5,104

5,213

5,200

4,743

3,90

13,

305

2,979

3,020

3,238

43

Paper and printing

639

636

640

666

619

602

599

623

620

6

Mineral productsb

878

881

910

892

793

748

750

763

760

18Textile andleatherproductse

2,495

2.525

2,450

2,220

2,155

2,206

2,257

2,322

2,287

15

a V

ehic

les,

railr

oad

care

, and

all

prod

ucts

not

els

ewhe

re r

ecor

ded

are

incl

uded

her

e.b

Incl

udes

chem

ical

, sto

ne, g

lass

, and

cla

y pr

oduc

ts.

Incl

udes

clo

thin

g of

all

kind

s.'In

crea

se—

min

imum

for

cor

resp

ondi

ng q

uart

ers.


dealers, show very moderate decreases, while public, professional, domes-tic, and personal service, and retail trade gave approximately the sameamount of employment throughout the period.

CHART 14.—DIFFERENCES IN THE TOTAL HOURS OF EMPLOYMENTGIVEN QUARTERLY AT THE PEAK AND AT THE TROUGH OF THE

BUSINESS CYCLE BY ENTERPRISES EMPLOYING FEWER THAN21 PERSONS EACH IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1920.

.

YEAR

AND

QUARTER

VI-2I-p..

o —N9

V.c E

0 ..N N99

—in.c '-ONN N99

'2 '2.—

.c .c

0 —N C'J99

Vcco oC) Ua ai0(00—N N92?

.c— +1L.

o o6 .2.('1 N99

.c .cL I..

o auu..6N N

.c—I'.

.— 3CI'rb.o —N N

FULL-TIMEEMPLOYEE

HOURSSCHEDULED

-cc) No Cm

CON.

(0 —N Cttq— —

N CY)no) NN 0çq tofiN Nmm tO tO—?

'eON03(0old(MILLIONS)

—

3,000—- -

cc - -r0 -z -WO

2,000—--

.

IL — —

Lu -1,000—

. — . S .1... I. i. Ii .1urn!. .

.

EMPLOYEEHOURS

WORKED(MILLIONS)

to NIt)CmSw

CO toCO In'i'——

C') C')N N — N.0 ('403

N. N0 tOfiçr)C') —N —nn 0 SC)

CO tON. ('flto N.NIL)Nt4

INDUSTRY

ALL

INDUSTRIES

AGRI-

.

CULTURE

EXTRACTION

OF FACTORIES

BUILDINGAND

CON STRUC-

TRAN5-

PORTATION

TRADE

AND

ALL

OTHER

MINERALS TION COMMERCE INDUSTRIES

Table XX furnishes the best available measure of the fluctuationsof the actual volume of employment, for it records the numbers ofemployee-hours worked rather than the numbers of persons on the pay--rolls. The falling off for all industries amounted to about one-sixth of thehours of work put in at the peak of activity in most lines of business.However, this decrease was far from uniform, the hand trades even show-


ing a very small increase. Mining, construction work, steam railways,and factories were the 'industries which felt the cycle most severely.


BUSINESS CYCLE BY ENTERPRiSES EMPLOYING FROM 21.TO100 PERSONS EACH IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1920.

YEAR

AND

QUARTER

g.t

Li.I,o N2 9

•uC

0 0a u(9 0

0 —N0)

U)L,,0CMN N00— —

Q 0L. I..

.—tt0— —

U V.

.c .cIT0N N— —

.c .c— —I.3 3o oLL

—CM Na 0)— —

•t,•— .—

0 —CM Nci 0)—

—U) U)1-

h-ItONN NS —

FULL•TIMEEMPLOYEE

HOURSSCHEDULED

(MILLIONS)

*10CO— .CO N

F-, 0)= COnO— —"' °

—

NN NC') N

0in— —

0 LOF-,N N

.j. —o it)

1500—

CI) -Et -

-1000—

--

IL -LU -

500—

.

is

-

I

—

I II

—

.

.—

-EMPLOYEE

HOURSWORKED(MILLION8)

'0 —N"'ScC4

Co —CO

Ne.

toq0)

—to04

fl COit) C')— —

Co C"in01 04

.ct toU) C')Co Co

INDUSTRYALL.

INDuSTRIES

AGRI-

CULTURE

EXTRACTION

OF

MIMERAI.8

FACTORIES

BUILDINGAND

CONSTRUC

TION

TRANc-

PORTATION

TRADE

AND

COMMERCE

ALL

OTHER

INDUSTRIES

The totals of time worked declined somewhat more than did thenumbers of workers on the respective pay-rolls. The reason for this ismainly that there was a tendency in some fields during the depression toretain the employees on the pay-rolls but to have them work part time.This fact is brought out in Charts 14, 15, 16 and Table XX. On these


charts the hollow bars represent the number of hours that would havebeen put in if all employees on the pay-rolls had worked full time. The


BUSINESS CYCLE BY ENTERPRISES EMPLOYING MORE THAN100 PERSONS EACH IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1920.

YEAR

AND

QUARTER

'ti.t .t.C .c

I

—Cl Ci

'U V.b

.C .Ci-.

I I0—CM CM

V —0

.Cj— 'a.

I I0CM

— VU)

.cI '

'UtC C

oua' ci0 oI I0—

CM (9

.CI— u..

I I0CM ('1

—

'U 'U

ga) 4)to to

I IoCM CM

— —

-

.C,a. I—

• IN....01 ('1—

FULL TIMEEMPLOYEE

HOURSSCHEDULED

(MILUONS)

,t, r-.—C'( 0

'0

S

oo.i

ø ci-0 inw 'q'

o0eC')

p.cO N

—

Co 'eIn CMr-.

—

mq' C9q'

6000—

5000—

re')

4000—o__% -

zLU 0

R 3000—

-

2000—

1000—

Iii

,

. -

-

•iLn

.

.

.11EMPLOYEE

HOURSACTUALLYWORKED(MILLIONS)

— 0w N 0

.

C')—

P-fl)CM NC') C9

—aj—

Co toCo C'(— —

01 N—

a)

It)CM

INDUSTRYALL

INDUSTRIES

AGRI-

CULTURE

EXTRACTION

orMINERALS

FACTORIE8

BUILDING

AND

CONSTRUC-TI ON

TRANS-

PORTATION

C3MMERCE

AND

TRADE

ALL

OTHER

INDUSTRIES

solid black bars indicate the hours actually worked. The difference inthe lengths of the bars of each pair represents the change in employmenttaking place between the crest and the trough of the employment cycle inthe given industry. It is clear that when measured in absolute termsthe important declines in employment were those occurring in factories,

TA

BL

E X

X.—

AN

EST

WA

TE

TU

EU

NiT

ED

ST

AT

ES

OP

TU

E T

OT

AL

Hou

Rs

AC

nTA

LL

YA

LL

EM

PLO

YE

ES

IN E

NT

ER

PRIS

ES

OF

AL

L S

IZE

SW

OR

KE

D P

EE

QU

AR

TE

R B

YC

o to

--

Mill

ions

of h

ours

wor

ked

per

quar

ter

1920

1921

1922

Max

imum

cycl

ical

decl

ine

Firs

tSe

cond

Thi

rdFo

urth

Firs

tSe

cond

Thi

rdFo

urth

Firs

tqu

arte

rqu

arte

r —qu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

r(p

er c

ent)

Aili

ndus

trie

s17

,747

18,3

9519

,063

17,6

1115

,515

15,5

4815

,918

15,6

5515

,180

16

Agriculture

911

1,265

1,603

1,148

882

1,250

1,552

1,112

898

3

Ext

ract

ion

of m

iner

als

648

654

698

672

590

549

534

509

491

30

Bui

ldin

g an

d co

nstr

uctio

n70

285

191

475

161

969

080

579

675

119

Oth

er h

and

trad

es35

337

7357

370

355

379

367

370

361

0.SA

Fina

nce

231

234

238

234

235

225

224

221

221

7

Fubl

ican

dpro

fess

iona

lser

vice

1,96

11,

928

1,92

21,

905

1,95

21,

841

1,83

41,

939

2,03

25

Dom

estic

andp

erso

nals

ervi

ce1,

956

1,99

12,

037

2,01

91,

973

1,985

2,022

1,936

1,920

4

Ailtransportation

2,104

2,163

2,323

2,231

1,800

1,75

51,

824

1,86

61,

639

21Steamrailways

1,359

1,374

1,513

1,388

1,068

1,004

1,064

1,080

936

30

Other transportation

.745

789

810

842

731

750

759

785

703

7

Commerceandtrade

1,733

1,772

1,762

1,799

1,698

1,723

1,707

1,749

1,67

13

Wholesale

185

197

195

186

178

187

184

176

171

6

Ret

ail

1,54

81,

574

1,56

61,

612

1,51

91,

535

1,52

31,

573

1,50

03

Ailf

acto

nes

7,14

37,

154

7,20

46,

478

5,40

65,

148

5,04

55,

152

5,19

130

Food

, dri

nk a

ndtobacco

678

664

740

710

573

564

628

627

557

15Lumber and its

prod

ucts

648

704

699

591

530

608

594

551

555

18M

etal

sand

met

alpr

oduc

ts°

3,375

3,331

3,35

42,

953

2,24

41,

857

1,67

91,

736

1,95

450

Paper and printing

396

394

394

412

375

359

352

379

368

11

Min

eral

565

571

583

570

492

474

474

488

477

19

Textileandleatherproductsc

1,479

1,488

1,431

1,240

1,189

1,284

1,315

1,368

1,277

20

• V

ehic

les,

rai

lroa

d ca

rs, a

nd a

llproducts

not e

lsew

here

rec

orde

dare included here.

6In

clud

eschemical, stone, glass, and clay products.

Includes clothing of all

kind

s.4

Incr

ease

—m

inim

umfor corresponding quarters.

EMPLOYMENT IN

larger plants.

1920—1922

mining, in building and construction,

93

of someand in miscellaneous

industries.NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ONWORKED, AND COMBINEDN THE CONTINENTAL

Part time appears to have been resorted to mainly by the railways,by the mining industry, and by certain classes of manufacturers.figures for agriculture are based upon only a few records and thereforecannot be considered dependable.part-time work is in general

It is clear that, during a depression,responsible for a far smaller proportion of

the decline in total employment than is the laying off of employees.That total payments in the form of wages and

even a greater degree than did the total hours worked is apparent from a

especiallymoment in

in the There were also shrinkages

CHART 17.—RELATIVE CHANGES IN THEPAY-ROLLS, TOTAL EMPLOYEE HOURS

SALARY AND WAGE PAYMENTS I

UNITED STATES.

120

50

09100

070I—

LI-

za

0wI2040110-3IC

I-IL0z80Iii0Lii13.

60

90

501920 1921 1922

The

salaries declined to


comparison of the right hand columns of Tables XX and XXII. Chart17 brings out the interesting point that the records neither of the numbersof persons on the pay-rolls nor of the total wage and salary payments areaccurate criteria of changes in the volume of work done.CHART 18.—EMPLOYMENT AT THE TROUGH OF THE 1921 DEPRESSION

EXPRESSEDASA PERCENTAGE OFTHE MAXIMUM IN THE1920 BOOM,MEASURED IN TOTAL HOURS WORKED BY ALL EMPLOYEES.

INDUSTRY

EMPLOYEES

CONCERN

PER CENT OF MAXIMUMtO 20 30 40 80 60 70 80 90 100

I I I I I I —

ALL

IN DU STR ItS

020

21-100

OVER 100

AGRICULTURE

.

0-20

21.100

OVERIOD

EXTRACTION

orMINERALS

0-2021100

OVER 100

FACTORIES

0-20

21-100

OVER 100

BUILDINGAND

CONSTRUCTION

0-20

21-100

OVER 100 .

TRANSPORTATION

0-20

21-100

OVER 100

COMMERCE

AND

TRADE

0.2021-100

OVER 100

ALL 0-20

OTHER 21-100

INDUSTRIES OVERICO

I I I I I I I I —tO 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1(0

PER CENT OF MAXIMUM

During the boom, salaries and wages rose faster than did totalemployee-hours, and in the following depression they fell further. Onthe other hand, the total number of hours worked during the period ofdecline in industrial activity diminished distinctly faster than did thenumber of employees on all pay-rolls. Evidently, then, adequatestatistics of employment must include a record of the total employee-hours worked as well as records of the numbers on the pay-rolls andtotals of wage and salary payments.

TA

BL

E X

XI.

—A

N E

STIM

AT

EFOR

TH

E C

ON

TIN

EN

TA

L U

NIT

ED

ST

AT

ES

OF

TH

E P

ER

CE

NT

OF

FUL

L T

IME

WO

RX

ED

BY

TH

E A

VE

RA

GE

EM

PLO

YE

E W

HIL

E O

N T

HE

PA

Y-R

OL

L I

N E

NT

ER

PRIS

ES

OF

AL

L S

IZE

S

.

.In

dust

ry

.

Per

cent

of

full

time

wor

ked

Dec

line

from

high

est

tolO

We8

t

1920

1921

1922

Firs

tSe

cond

Thi

rdFo

urth

Firs

tSe

cond

Thi

rdFo

urth

Firs

tqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rqu

arte

rre

cord

ed

All

indu

stri

es98

.597.5

08.0

97.4

95.3

95.8

05.8

96.4

96.2

3.2

Agr

icul

ture

05.1

93.2

96.9

98.9

92.4

95.1

97.4

99.6

94.1

6.5

Ext

ract

ion

of m

iner

als

94.3

93.1

95.1

94.8

90.7

90.2

88.4

92.8

93.4

6.7

Building and

cons

truc

tion

94.1

94.6

94.6

04.9

92.9

94.3

94.4

94.5

102.1

2.0

Oth

er h

and

trad

es96

.998

.397

.197

.695

.897.7

97.2

97.0

96.2

2.5

Fina

nce

99.5

100.

110

0.1

99.3

99.4

98.9

99.7

99.4

99.5

1.2

Publ

ic a

nd p

rofe

ssio

nal s

ervi

ce10

0.6

100.

110

0.0

100.

310

1.4

100.

399

.999

.910

0.5

1.5

Dom

estic

and

per

sona

l ser

vice

98.2

97.8

97.9

98.5

97.8

98.0

97.9

97.0

97.9

1.5

A]l

tran

spor

tatio

n10

3.6

103.

810

5.7

103.

198

.699.7

99.0

99.0

95.9

9.8

Steam railways

106.8

107.4

109.9

105.6

09.0

100.4

99.5

99.1

94.2

15.7

Oth

er tr

ansp

orta

tion

98.2

98.1

98.7

99.3

97.9

98.9

98.5

98.8

98.1

1.4

Commerce and trade

97.9

98.1

98.1

98.7

98.1

98.1

97.7

98.7

98.2

1.0

Wholesale

98.9

99.0

99.0

100.3

99.9

99.4

98.6

99.0

98.8

1.7

Retail

97.8

97.9

98.0

98.5

97.9

97.9

97.6

98.7

98.1

0.9

All factories

98.1

96.3

96.2

94.4

91.6

92.3

92.2

93.3

93.3

6.5

Food, drink, andtobaoco

97.4

97.9

95.8

96.3

97.6

98.1

95.7

96.8

96.6

2.4

Lumber and its

prod

ucts

94.7

94.9

95.6

95.0

94.0

94.7

95.2

95.5

95.5

1.6

Metals and metal products.'

99.7

96.0

96.6

93.9

88.5

87.0

87.0

88.5

92.5

12.7

Paperandprinting

98.7

98.6

98.0

98.5

96.8

95.9

95.8

98.2

95.7

3.0

Mineral

98.4

99.0

98.5

97.4

94.1

96.0

95.6

96.4

95.2

4.9

Textile and leather

96.0

95.4

94.3

91.6

91.3

94.7

94.4

94.9

91.0

5.0

Veh

icle

s, r

ailr

oad

cars

, and

all

prod

ucts

not

els

ewhe

re r

ecor

ded

are

incl

uded

her

e.in

clud

es c

hem

ical

, sto

ne, g

lass

, and

cla

y pr

oduc

ts.

Incl

udes

clothing

of a

llkinds.

TA

BL

E X

XIL

—A

N E

STIM

AT

E P

OE

TU

E C

owT

lNE

wra

UN

rnD

ST

AT

ES

OF

TH

E T

OT

AL

QU

AB

TE

RL

Y W

AG

ES

AN

D S

AL

AR

IES

PAID

TO

AL

L E

MPL

OY

EE

S B

Y A

a E

NT

ER

PRIS

ES

OF

WH

AT

EV

ER

SIz

E

Mill

ions

of

dolla

rs p

aid

to e

mpl

oyee

sM

axim

umcy

clic

alIn

dust

ry19

2019

2119

22

Firs

tqu

arte

r

decl

ine

(per

cen

t)Fi

rst

quar

ter

Seco

ndqu

arte

rT

hird

Fou

rth

quar

ter

quar

ter

Firs

tqu

arte

rSe

cond

quar

ter

Thi

rdFo

urth

quar

ter

quar

ter

9,905

8,38

08,

114

8,047

316

540

553

195

173

8,055

201

465

446

183

169

7,743

AU

indu

stri

es

Agr

icul

ture

Ext

ract

ion

of m

iner

als

Bui

ldin

g an

dconstruction

Other

hand

trad

esFi

nanc

e

Publ

ic a

nd p

rofe

ssio

nal s

ervi

ceD

omes

tic a

nd p

erso

nal s

ervi

ce.

All

tran

spor

tatio

nSt

eam

rai

lway

sO

ther

tran

spor

tatio

n

Com

mer

ce a

nd tr

ade

Who

lesa

leR

etai

l

AU

fac

tori

esFo

od, d

rink

, and

toba

cco

Lum

ber

and

its p

rodu

cts

Met

als

and

met

al p

rodu

ctsa

Pape

r an

d pr

intin

gM

iner

al p

rodu

cts'

Tex

tile

and

leat

her

279

423

495

192

165

23

390

396

573

189

164

250

364

575

193

169

9,46

3

216

477

528

180

156

964

666

1,197

811

386

828

100

728

4,252

343

331

2,176

240

303

859

181

349

549

186

165

10,0

48 323

488

656

193

161

960

690

1,341

921

420

854

105

749

4,38

2343

364

2,223

249

317

887

1,04

669

51,458

1,002

456

19 36 251 5

10,4

72 483

548

684

190

168

912

700

1,51

21,

073

440

862

107

756

4,410

359

361

2,24

625

433

485

6

1,06

267

81,

170

772

398

1,00

267

81,119

713

406

951

672

1,087

679

408

1,12

466

1.1,

111

691

420

887

106

781

1,11

764

31,

005

628

377

829 96

734

44

S

28 377

830 99

731

823

98

725

83995

744

795 88

707

4,04

236

832

12,

004

272

335

742

5 18 5

o V

ehic

les,

railr

oad

cars

, and

all

prod

ucts

not

els

ewhe

re r

ecor

ded

are

bIn

clud

esch

emic

al, s

tone

, gla

ss, a

nd c

lay

prod

ucts

.C

Incl

udes

clot

hing

of

all k

inds

.4

Incr

ease

—m

inim

um f

or c

orre

spon

ding

qua

rter

s.

3,17

629

7275

1,40

524

428

367

3

2,92

927

9296

1,14

223

826

570

8

2,802

299

290

988

232

260

733

incl

uded

her

e.

2,76

928

827

3970

248

254

737

2,752

257

267

1,060

237

248

683

38 30 20 579

26 24


Perhaps the most surprising discovery made in the course of this.nvestigation is the fact brought out by Table XXIII and by Chart 18,that the reduction in employment during the depression of 1921 was aphenomenon affecting most severely the establishments of the largerüzes. While there are a few exceptions to this rule, it nevertheless holds

the great majority of industries. The reason for this state of affairs[s not made clear by the figures. It may be due to the more intimatepersonal relationships existing between small scale employers and their

it may arise from the fact that the small producer is in closerbouch with the ultimate consumer of his products and can, therefore,better gage the demand; it may be the result of differences in the natureDf the large and small establishments or it may arise from some unsus-pected cause.' The fact remains that the difference exists and is largemough to be important.rABLE XXIII.—A COMPARISON OF THE VOLUME OF EMPLOYMENT AT THE FEAX

AND IN THE TROUGH FOR LEADING INDUSTRIAL GROUPS

Industry

.

Employeesper

concern

Pull-time hours(Millions)

Hours actually worked(Millions)

Peak Trough Per cent.

declinePer centPeak Trough change

Allindustries

0— 20

21—100

Over 100

7,105

3,132

9,215

6,892

2,640

6,997

3.0015.7124.07

6,9562,9269,181

6,7422,5216,589

3.0813.8428.23

(kgriculture

j

0-. 20

21—100

Over 100

1,526

117

36

1,491

89

24

2.29

23.93

33.33

1,488

98

27

1,456

81

20

2.1517.35

25.93

(of mineral8

0—2021—100

Over 100

32

99

608

33

59

434

.3.1340.4028 62

23

92

593

23

54

414

0.00

41.31

30.18

?aotories(

0— 2021—100

Over 100

9221,3135,400

8441,0103,617

8 4623.0733.02

9011,1715,327

827946

3,273

8.2119.2138.56

(

0— 20

21—100Over 100

330

322

289

284

278

177

13.94

13 66

38.75

307

311

228

262

264

121

14.66

15.11

46.93

rransportation

0— 20

21—100

Over 100

321

156

1,758

312

140

1,324

2 80

10.26

2469

323

153

1,889

311

138

1,262

3.72

9.80

33.19

Jommerce and tradeI,,

0— 20

21—100

Over 100

1,189

270

355

1,169

255

324

1.68

5.56

8.73

1,180

258

352

1,165

243

317

5.81

9.94

til other industries

0— 20

21—100

Over 100

2,804

904

1,049

2,624

851

929

6.42

5 86

11.44

2,767

894

1,045

2,573

836

926

7.01

6.49

11.39

I am inclined to believe that one reason why small enterprises show a lower)ercentage of unemployment during depressions is that in such enterprises there is arompter liquidation of costs, perhaps even of wage rates.—Note by M. C. RoRn.

7


IV. SUMMARY

The results of this investigation may be sununarized briefly as follows:1. The depression of 1921 caused a diminution of approximately one-

sixth in the total volume of employment in the United States.2. The reduction due to part-time work was confined mainly to a few

fields and was relatively of slight importance when considered for industryas a whole.

3. The shift of workers from one industrial field to another was smallin extent.

4. Workers in mining, transportation, and manufacturing were theprincipal sufferers from the decline in employment.

5. Small employers in general gave more steady employment thandid large employers in the same industries.

6. To get an accurate picture of changes in total employment, it isnot sufficient to collect data concerning numbers on the pay-rolls ortotal wages and salaries paid. The only data that give the precisemeasurement needed are those showing the numbers of employee-hoursworked.

changes in employment in the principal industrial fields: january 1

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