change in financial sector of bangladesh
TRANSCRIPT
7/28/2019 Change in Financial Sector of Bangladesh
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
Change in Financial Sector of Bangladesh:
An Analysis
Abstract
The financial sector of Bangladesh is generally small and underdeveloped.
This sector consists of a banking segment and an emerging but still nascent
capital market segment. The banking segment in the country is relatively more
developed than the equity market segment, even though both are quite
underdeveloped in international comparison. The root causes of the
Bangladeshi financial sector problem are the lack of market discipline due to
lack of competition in the banking industry. Excessive government intervention
and political connections, economic and political corruptions, operational and
managerial inefficiency and ineffectiveness result in vicious circle that inhibits
economic development, industrialization, and social progresses in poor and
developing countries in general and in Bangladesh in particular. Better
financial services and diversified financial products would be the natural
consequence of competitive financial industry. The authors argue that a
strengthened regulatory environment and additional much needed financial
sector reforms, a better and more efficient financial sector may evolve over
time and serve better the development needs of the country.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
1.0 Introduction
Since the independence of the country on December 16th, 1971 until December
1989, the Bangladeshi financial sector has been controlled under the strict
directives of government and Bangladesh Bank-the Central Bank of
Bangladesh. From 1974, the discount rate policy was often used to support
Bangladesh Bank‟s administered interest rate policy. In the early years of
Bangladesh, discount rate, reserve ratios and moral suasion (known as open
mouth operation) were important instruments to control money supply. With
the introduction of Financial Sector Reform Program in 1990, the Bangladesh
Bank almost closed both the refinance and rediscount windows with a view to
developing an inter-bank market. Nevertheless the central bank kept the
discount rate between 5-8 percent. Any bank that needed finance startedapproaching the inter- bank market instead of Bangladesh Bank‟s windows;
thereby, discount rate policy, though intentionally, lost its credibility.
The banking system at independence consisted of two branch offices of the
former State Bank of Pakistan and seventeen large commercial banks, two of
which were controlled by Bangladeshi interests and three by foreigners other
than West Pakistanis. There were fourteen smaller commercial banks. Virtually
all banking services were concentrated in urban areas. The newly independent
government immediately designated the Dhaka branch of the State Bank of
Pakistan as the central bank and renamed it the Bangladesh Bank. The bank
was responsible for regulating currency, controlling credit and monetary policy,
and administering exchange control and the official foreign exchange reserves.
The Bangladesh government initially nationalized the entire domestic banking
system and proceeded to reorganize and rename the various banks. Foreign-
owned banks were permitted to continue doing business in Bangladesh. The
insurance business was also nationalized and became a source of potentialinvestment funds. Cooperative credit systems and postal savings offices
handled service to small individual and rural accounts. The new banking
system succeeded in establishing reasonably efficient procedures for managing
credit and foreign exchange. The primary function of the credit system
throughout the 1970s was to finance trade and the public sector, which together
absorbed 75 percent of total advances.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
The government's encouragement during the late 1970s and early 1980s of
agricultural development and private industry brought changes in lending
strategies. Managed by the Bangladesh Krishi Bank, a specialized agricultural
banking institution, lending to farmers and fishermen dramatically expanded.
The number of rural bank branches doubled between 1977 and 1985, to morethan 3,330. Denationalization and private industrial growth led the Bangladesh
Bank and the World Bank to focus their lending on the emerging private
manufacturing sector. Scheduled bank advances to private agriculture, as a
percentage of sectoral GDP, rose from 2 percent in FY 1979 to 11 percent in
FY 1987, while advances to private manufacturing rose from 13 percent to 53
percent.
The transformation of finance priorities has brought with it problems in
administration. No sound project-appraisal system was in place to identifyviable borrowers and projects. Lending institutions did not have adequate
autonomy to choose borrowers and projects and were often instructed by the
political authorities. In addition, the incentive system for the banks stressed
disbursements rather than recoveries, and the accounting and debt collection
systems were inadequate to deal with the problems of loan recovery. It became
more common for borrowers to default on loans than to repay them; the lending
system was simply disbursing grant assistance to private individuals who
qualified for loans more for political than for economic reasons. The rate of
recovery on agricultural loans was only 27 percent in FY 1986, and the rate on
industrial loans was even worse. As a result of this poor showing, major donors
applied pressure to induce the government and banks to take firmer action to
strengthen internal bank management and credit discipline. As a consequence,
recovery rates began to improve in 1987. The National Commission on Money,
Credit, and Banking recommended broad structural changes in Bangladesh's
system of financial intermediation early in 1987, many of which were built into
a three-year compensatory financing facility signed by Bangladesh with the
IMF in February 1987.
One major exception to the management problems of Bangladeshi banks was
the Grameen Bank, begun as a government project in 1976 and established in
1983 as an independent bank. In the late 1980s, the bank continued to provide
financial resources to the poor on reasonable terms and to generate productive
self-employment without external assistance. Its customers were landless
persons who took small loans for all types of economic activities, including
housing. About 70 percent of the borrowers were women, who were otherwisenot much represented in institutional finance. Collective rural enterprises also
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
average loan by the Grameen Bank in the mid-1980s was around Tk2,000
(US$65), and the maximum was just Tk18,000 (for construction of a tin-roof
house). Repayment terms were 4 percent for rural housing and 8.5 percent for
normal lending operations.
The Grameen Bank extended collateral-free loans to 200,000 landless people in
its first 10 years. Most of its customers had never dealt with formal lending
institutions before. The most remarkable accomplishment was the phenomenal
recovery rate; amid the prevailing pattern of bad debts throughout the
Bangladeshi banking system, only 4 percent of Grameen Bank loans were
overdue. The bank had from the outset applied a specialized system of
intensive credit supervision that set it apart from others. Its success, though still
on a rather small scale, provided hope that it could continue to grow and that it
could be replicated or adapted to other development-related priorities. The
Grameen Bank was expanding rapidly, planning to have 500 branches
throughout the country by the late 1980s.
Beginning in late 1985, the government pursued a tight monetary policy aimed
at limiting the growth of domestic private credit and government borrowing
from the banking system. The policy was largely successful in reducing thegrowth of the money supply and total domestic credit. Net credit to the
government actually declined in FY 1986. The problem of credit recovery
remained a threat to monetary stability, responsible for serious resource
misallocation and harsh inequities. Although the government had begun
effective measures to improve financial discipline, the draconian contraction of
credit availability contained the risk of inadvertently discouraging new
economic activity.
Foreign exchange reserves at the end of FY 1986 were US$476 million,
equivalent to slightly more than 2 months worth of imports. This represented a
20-percent increase of reserves over the previous year, largely the result of
higher remittances by Bangladeshi workers abroad. The country also reduced
imports by about 10 percent to US$2.4 billion. Because of Bangladesh's status
as a least developed country receiving concessional loans, private creditors
accounted for only about 6 percent of outstanding public debt. The external
public debt was US$6.4 billion, and annual debt service payments wereUS$467 million at the end of FY 1986.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
The financial sector of Bangladesh is generally small and underdeveloped. This
sector consists of a banking segment and an emerging but still nascent
capital/equity market segment. The banking segment in the country is relatively
more developed than the equity market segment, even though both are quite
underdeveloped in international comparison. The primary research question of the study is to examine the current state of the financial sector and whether it
can play an important and necessary role in resource mobilization and
economic development of the country. A brief analysis of the two major
segments of the country‟s financial system is given in the following two
sections, with the banking segment discussion first followed by a discussion of
the equity market segment. The next section discusses challenges; the final
section providing some concluding remarks.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
2.0 Banking Industry
In the banking segment, immediately after the independence of the country in
1971, the then government nationalized the commercial banks (except a few
foreign banks) and organized them into six distinct banks by the BangladeshBank (the central Bank of the country) nationalization order 1972. As saving
and investment in the country is very low, in order to channel saving and
investment through the formal sector and to expand banking services in the
remote areas of the country, the nationalization of the banking sector was
considered as one of the major objectives at that time. The central bank, known
as the Bangladesh Bank (BB) is the central body to oversee the banking sector
of the country and at that time, the BB directly controlled the interest rates
(both lending and deposit rates) by fiat.
During this time, bank branches have expanded rapidly, particularly in the rural
areas. On the positive side, the expansion of bank branches reduces transaction
costs associated with the mobilization and transfer of funds and to thereby to
increase savings and investments, and deposit creation. But due to corruption,
mismanagement, and government interference, many branches of the
commercial banks cannot work properly and some branches incurred heavy
losses, and some of these branches were subsequently closed down. To
overcome these problems, financial sector reform program has started inearnest since 1990. These reforms include flexible interest rate, convertibility
of „taka‟, introduction of 91 days bill, recapitalization of banks, and new
procedures for loan classification system, introduction of REPO in the money
market, and strengthening of money and capital markets. Although before
1990, open market operations and bank rate policies were hardly used,
currently they are getting emphasis due to change in the post-reform policy
environment.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
In the initial years after independence, six nationalized commercial banks
(NCB‟s) dominated the banking segment. In the post reform period, the
structure of the banking system has changed significantly. Total numbers of
scheduled banks are forty seven. As part of the reform program, some NCB‟s
were privatized, foreign ownership of banks has been opened up, and additionalnew commercial banks were allowed to start and operate. Consequently, the
banking system in the country consists of several NCB‟s along with a number
of home based privately owned commercial banks (PCB‟s), some foreign
owned commercial banks (FCB‟s), some privately owned Sharia compliant
Islamic banks (IB‟s) and some state owned specialized financial institutions
(SFI‟s) such as the Bangladesh Krishi (agricultural) Bank and Bangladesh
Development Bank ltd., all under the supervision of the central bank. Besides
that, the Investment Corporation Bank (ICB) also plays vital role as an
investment banking .Unfortunately for the last ten years, their services were not
active like previous time periods, though it has been divided into three wings
with the objective of improving its performance.
Table:-5.1:Total assets and deposits scenario by types of bank.
2010 (June) ( billion Taka)
Bank Number Number Total % of Deposits % of Depositstypes of Banks of Assets Industry
branches Assets
SCBs 4 3394 1272.64 28.85 952.72 28.62
DFIs 4 1366 291.37 6.60 177.90 5.34
PCBs 30 2427 2539.27 57.55 1967.78 59.11
FCBs 9 59 308.70 7.00 230.68 6.93
Total 47 7246 4411.98 100 3329.08 100
Source: Bangladesh Bank (2010).
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
In spite of many different kinds of banks operating side by side, and even
though the central bank no longer directly control the lending or deposit rates in
the post-1990‟s reform period; however, a strong competitive and efficient
banking system has not yet developed. The banking system is mired in
corruption, mismanagement, and direct interference from government in power.Further, the commercial banks still do not determine interest rate under
competitive environment. Rather they are determining interest rates (both
lending and deposit rates) within an oligopolistic framework, possibly
following some collusive or cartel type arrangements. This is perhaps true for
all types of banks, nationalized banks, domestic private banks and foreign
owned banks.
The last decade witnessed some major policy shift as the Bangladesh Bank
introduced repurchase agreement in July 2002 and Reverse Repo in April 2003
and reintroduced Bangladesh Bank Bill in 2006. These were introduced as
indirect monetary policy tools for day-to-day liquidity management in response
to temporary and unexpected disturbances in the supply of and demand for
money. The initiatives of the Central Bank to face the situation through reform
measures since 1990 no doubt have improved the capital adequacy,
governance, regulation and supervision, and the legal and payment systems in
the economy. Nowadays, the traditional banking business system of the country
through depositing and advancing of money has almost ended. Segmentation inthe banking system is required so that banks‟ can provide a broad range of
financial services. Through fund management, banks can earn profit.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
The banking sector has evolved to become the dominant financial intermediary
in Bangladeshi financial system due to the underdeveloped money and capital
markets, limited availability of financial instruments, and lack of confidence in
the financial system as a whole. Bangladesh Bank still cannot determine
monetary policy independently. Government is still playing important role inthe financial sector as borrowers from the banking system. In Bangladesh, there
is very limited scope for individuals to invest in the capital markets and lack of
alternative opportunities for investment compelled them to invest mainly in
bank deposits, post office saving certificates and government bonds. Banks
operate with old and outdated banking procedures, lack of coordination
between proper manpower planning and bank schemes, lack of market research
for customer psychology analysis, scarcity of financial derivatives, inefficient
banking services, and lack of long term planning, to name a few, are creating
bottlenecks preventing local banks from attaining international standards.
Though reform measures in the financial sector were initiated in the nineties,
the overall stability and performance of the banking sector is still not
satisfactory.
Financial institution managers in general, and bank managers in particular, in
this country does not properly assess risks as well as the costs of various types
of bank sources of funds. While managing their financial assets, the financialinstitutions were not cautious about handling funds with the utmost care. Lack
of ethics in the banking sector is a part of a wider and long lasting socio-
economic and political problems in Bangladesh. Loopholes in the financial
sector are a part of the overall corruption that plagued almost all segments in
the country. Unhealthy competition among different banks display lack of
ethics in doing banking business. Variation of higher interest rate and profit
paid to the client sometimes involve bankers in immoral practices. In the name
of trade unionism, especially nationalized commercial banks, trade union
leaders create unethical work culture in Bangladesh. Pervasive corruption inBangladesh is a form of agency problem in which bank management tries to
maximize the amount of its personal gains (bribery) has been documented in
the literature.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
ADB (2011) argued that the half-yearly monetary policy statement (MPS, July-
December 2011) aims to continue the central bank‟s tighter monetary policy
stance to rein in credit expansion to control inflation and preserve external
sector balance. Economic Trends (2011) indicated that the annual rate of
inflation increased to 9.43 percent at the end of August „11 from 7.87 per centat the end of august ‟10.
Bangladesh Bank (2011) described that in bolstering stability of the financial
sector include mandatory implementation of the BASEK – II capital regime
from 2010, with the attendant shoring up of risk management structures and
practices that this will entail. Mandatory periodical stress testing routines in
banking sector have also been introduced to bring out early warnings about
their vulnerabilities.
Bangladesh Bank cannot guide commercial banks as evidenced by the fact that
commercial banks are charging higher interest rates, even cross the limit of
margin requirements, taking high spread between buying and selling rate of
foreign exchange and devaluation of Bangladesh Taka against US Dollar has
been going on. As such inflation rate is rising and purchasing power of the
people has been declining Moreover, commercial banks are investing in the
share market to gain short term profit since 2005 making depositors deposit
risky as in Bangladesh if any bank fails then there is no reinsurance systemfrom which depositors get their amount. These problems cannot be corrected
without the infrastructure of the more modernized banking sector and proper
staffing in the top management level i.e. Deputy Governor posts where one
should be macroeconomic specialist and another one should have depth
knowledge in practical commercial banking and developing an effective and
efficient market economy. Moreover, government should take appropriate steps
to develop bond market so that it can contribute in the growth of Gross
domestic Product.
From the countercyclical monetary policy time lag perspective, empirical
research suggests that when formulating the current countercyclical monetary
policy, Bangladesh Bank is influenced by its actions taken in the last three
quarters and the change in the real GDP a year ago. The countercyclical
monetary policy actions and the change in the real GDP a year ago affect the
current change in the real GDP. Stated differently, it will take two quarters for
the implemented countercyclical policy to achieve it effectiveness fully
Customarily, the time period when the adverse economic condition occurs until
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
however long it take for the Bank of Bangladesh to recognize the
macroeconomic problem and to formulate and implement the corrective policy
actions, it will take two quarters for the implemented countercyclical monetary
policy to achieve its full effectiveness.
Figure-5.1: Percentage (%) of Industry Assets by Types of Banks.
% of Industry Assets
7.00% 28.85%
6.60% 57.55%
SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs
Source: Bangladesh Bank (2010)
Figure-5.2: Percentage (%) of Industry Deposits by Types of Banks.
% of Industry Deposits
6.93% 28.62%
5.34%
59.11%
SCBs DFIs PCBs FCBs
Source: Bangladesh Bank (2010)
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
3.0 Equity Markets
As to the capital market segment, Bangladesh is still at a nascent stage of
capital market development. It is well documented in the literature that a well-
functioning capital market is of great significance for a developing country like
Bangladesh which is expected to help the country‟s development by channeling
domestic saving to productive investments, attracting foreign investors to the
market, and allocating the national savings most efficiently, among others.
However, as in many other developing country equity markets, the Bangladesh
equity market is relatively underdeveloped, it is small, the market is thin and
non-transparent, and it is quite inefficient.
Bangladesh has two major exchanges, the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) andthe Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE). The DSE is the larger of the two stock
exchanges in the country. Formal trading on the DSE began in 1956 two years
after the establishment of the East Pakistan Stock Exchange Ltd. on April 28,
1954. It was renamed as the East Pakistan Stock Exchange Limited on June 23,
1962, and finally came to be known by its present name of the Dhaka Stock
Exchange (DSE) Limited on May 14, 1964.
Prior to the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, there were 196 securities
listed on the DSE with a total paid-up capital of about Taka 4 billion and the
daily average transaction of shares during that period was about 20,000
(Basher, Hassan and Islam 2007). Trading activity of the Exchange remained
suspended since the start of the war of liberation in 1971 until it restarted in
1976. When the DSE restarted in 1976, the DSE had only 9 listed companies
with a paid-up capital of approximately Taka 137.52 million and at the end of
that year total market capitalization of listed securities was about Taka 146.73
million. By 2002-03, the number of listed companies has grown to 251companies listed with the DSE having total issued capital of Taka 35,537
million (US$ 612 million) and total market capitalization of Taka 72,167
million (US$ 1,244 million). In 2008, the number of listed companies is about
295 with a market capitalization of about US$ 7,067 million.
The second stock exchange, the Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) was
established in 1995 and started its operation in that year with 30 listed
securities. Like the DSE, the CSE has been registered as a public limited
company and is a self-regulated non-profit organization. It has currently 129members even though there is a provision for up to 500 memberships. The
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
were 187 listed securities with the CSE. On the same day, the total issued
capital and market capitalization of all listed securities with the CSE stood at
Taka 33,085 million (US$ 570 million) and Taka 59,855 million (US$ 1,032
million), respectively.
In terms of regulatory structure, the capital markets of Bangladesh received its
first legal backing with the passage of Securities and Exchange Ordinance in
1969. More than two decades later, in 1993, the Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) was established under the Securities and Exchange Act,
1993. The functions of the SEC include regulation of equity trading, protection
of investors, ensure legislative and regulatory compliances, and promote a fair,
transparent and efficient security markets. To supervise and regulate the
activities of the capital markets in Bangladesh, the SEC does it by performingconstant real time monitoring and post-trading analysis of transactions in the
DSE and the CSE.
The underdeveloped and non-transparent nature of the capital market in
Bangladesh provides ample opportunities for unethical and even illegal
manipulations resulting in market crashes as happened in 1996 (as reflected by
a steep decline of the market capitalization value in US$ shown in Figure 1
below). Such unwarranted crashes usually cause severe financial damages to
investors, particularly many small investors and erode confidence in the
markets. This painful episode occurred at both stock exchanges in summer and
fall of 1996. During this episode, DSE index increased from 832 in January
1996 to its peak at 3,567 on November 14, 1996 and back down to 507.33 in
November 1999. To control the damages caused by the 1996 crash and with the
support from Asia Development Bank (ADB), Bangladesh government
introduced the Capital Market Development Program in November 20, 1997
with several objectives such as to (i) strengthen market regulation and
supervision, (ii) develop the stock market infrastructure, (iii) modernize stock market support facilities, (iv) increase the limited supply of securities in the
market, (v) develop institutional sources of demand for securities in the market,
and (vi) improve policy coordination.
Ali and Wise (2007) argued that Bangladesh capital market is not yet well-
developed. Figure 1 shows the time trend of the number of listed companies
along with the market capitalization in US$ from 1988 to 2008. This graph
suggests that the stock market has grown rapidly from 101 companies with a
market capitalization of US$ 430 million in 1988 to 295 companies withmarket capitalization of US$ 7,067 million in 2009, an impressive growth rate
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
GDP is still quite low compared to international standard.
Figure 1: Listed companies and Market Capitalization in Bangladesh: 1988-2009
8.E+09 Left Scale: Market Cap Value US$ 300 Right Scale: No. of Listed Companies 250
6.E+09 No. of Listed Companies 200
4.E+09 150
2.E+09 100
Market Cap Value (US$) 50 0.E+00
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Year Source: World Bank: World Development Indicators CD Rom database
The market capitalization as the percentage of GDP increased from 1.68% in
1988 to about 8.39% in 2008, also an impressive growth. But this rate for
Bangladesh (BGD) compares quite poorly compared to India (IND), Pakistan
(PAK), and South Asia (SAS) as shown in Figure 2, which shows BGD line is
at the bottom of Figure 2 below the other reference countries. In fact, the ratio
for India and South Asia reached around 150% and 125% of GDP respectively
in 2007, just before the crash of the markets due to the 2007-09 global financial
crisis. It is worth noting that the Bangladesh capital market showed resilience
in the face of this massive crisis. However, given the relatively low market
capitalization-GDP ratio of 8.39% in 2008, it appears that Bangladesh capital
market needs much more development in order to catch up even with its
comparable neighboring countries.
Figure 2: Market Capitalization as % of GDP: 1988-2009
160 % of GDP
Market Cap as % of GDP IND
120
80 SAS
40 PAK
0 BGD 08 10
Year 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Source: World Bank: World Development Indicators CD Rom Database
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
As to the relationship between Bangladesh money supply and the share price index,
Figure 3 shows the two monthly percentage changes in the stock price index narrow
money supply from 1999.01 to 2010.01. This Figure shows that both series has displayed
significant month to month fluctuations. Further, the apparent synchronized co-
movement of the two series gives preliminary indications that the two series would likely be co-integrated.
Figure 3: Relations between Changes in Money Supply and Share Price Index: 1999.01-2010.01
% SPt: % Change in Share Price Index (Right Scale) 30 20 10 0
12 -10 8 -20 4 -30 0
-4 MSt: % Change in M1 (Left Scale)
-8 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Month / Year
Source: Data obtained from International Financial Statistics databas
As to the long-run relationship, empirical studies confirm the co-integration relationship
between the stock price index and the narrowly defined money supply. In fact their co-
integrating relationships are asymmetric. This asymmetric relationship indicates that the
counter cyclical monetary policies affect the cost to raise new financial resources of
corporations differently in different phases of business cycles in the long-run. More
specifically, the results reveal that the stock price adjusts more slowly to the threshold
value when the Bangladeshi monetary authority eases the money supply than when the
Bangladeshi monetary authority tightens the monetary policy. These findings suggest that
the stock price is more responsive to signals of possible contractionary monetary policy
as reflected in the decline money supply M1. These in turn indicate that equity (debt)-
market-dependent firms are more vulnerable to business cycle fluctuations (at least in
regard to their cost of capital) than firms with access to other sources of financing. Thus,
policymakers should be aware that counter-cyclical monetary policy may have different
effects due to the asymmetric behavior of stock prices in their formulation of monetary
policy.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
Further, in a recent article, I found that due to the common characteristics associated with
poor developing countries, their equity markets are not even weakly efficient. This is not
viewed positively given that most well developed countries have efficient equity markets.
This observation coupled with the status of a poor developing country and their attendant
problems suggest that to develop an efficient equity market, Bangladesh should firstconcentrate its efforts on developing better market infrastructures for a more effective
market economy. In this environment, a strong political will to reform the system and a
strong commitment to implement the reforms are needed to establish a more competitive
and efficient overall market economy that would be conducive for building an efficient
stock market.
With regard to the short-run relationship, empirical studies further reveal that the short-
run counter-cyclical monetary policy is ineffective in stimulating or cooling down theequity market i.e., the stock price responds to monetary policy action in the long-run but
not in the short run. These empirical result suggest the lack of central bank creditability,
i.e., investors do not believe that central bank can carry out its policy objectives; thus,
they wait and see. The Bangladesh Bank (Central Bank of Bangladesh) may have
personally persuaded the commercial bankers to change their rate setting behavior
because there are few of them, and there may be some incentives for banks to listen. The
Bangladesh Bank authority cannot utilize the same tactic to deal with investors because
there are more of them and they may not have any incentive to listen.
Further, there are many allegations of insider trading, market manipulation, and
corruption in the equity market, leading to demonstrations by investors in the country on
a number of occasions, eroding confidence in the equity market. Unfortunately, neither
the government including the Securities and Exchange Commission, nor any regulatory
authorities including the Bangladesh Bank had taken serious steps to deal with these
allegations in a serious and effective manner to restore investor confidence in an already
small and unstable market environment.
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SAJID ZAMAN DU EMBA ( Banking & Insurance)
4.0 Challenges
With regard to the Bangladeshi corrupted business environment and for whatever it is
worth, the Transparency International (2009, 2008, and 2007) ranked Bangladesh as the147th, 147th, and 162th, most corrupted country out of 180 nations that it studies, 1st
being the least corrupted. Moreover it is reported that 75% of the unethical practices in
the banking sector are attributable to the personal gain motivation, 20% due to the
business interest of banks such as charging high interest rates in the call money market or
discrimination of charging commission or service charges from one customer to another.
Only 5% of unethical practices are attributable to social reasons such as waiver of interest
up to Tk. 10,000 against agricultural loans. Though this waiver is done due to the
Government decision, it creates inequality among those persons who have taken loans.
When such waiver is made, those who are not benefited get jealous and their interest isnot protected. Moreover, when big defaulters get a lump sum amount of waiver for
rescheduling, those who are regularly paying interest think that they are being deprived!
One of the consequences of corruption is that the pervasive default culture in the
Bangladeshi economy, as evidenced by huge amount of nonperforming loans, which
prevented reductions in loan pricing. This is because cost of funds is high. Through moral
suasion, Bangladesh Bank has been requesting reduction in lending-deposit rate spread in
veil because with the exception of few public banks, other banks want to earn “super normal profits” resulting in high lending rates. Lack of ethics in the banking sector is a
part of wider and long lasting socio-economic and political problems in the country.
Loopholes in the banking sector are a part of the overall corruption that plagued almost
all segments in the country. There is a dilemma between the making money and business
ethics. Corruption is the buyer-seller collusion resulting higher business cost structures
and raising simulated shortage of funds in general, and in the banking sector, in
particular.
As a direct the consequence of extensive government interventions in the form of licensesand permits as well as directives, the ownership of private institutions and management
and control of public institutions are given to a few interests (individuals or businesses)
who are well-connected politically, explicitly or implicitly resulting in monopoly and
oligopoly type behavior in the banking and financial system. The monopolistic and
oligopolistic market structures coupled with the political connections of a few powerful
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individuals and corruptions would invariably lead to cartels and price fixings. These
factors would hinder the effectiveness of national economic policy actions and result in
asymmetric adjustment in product and service pricing, and an unfair distribution of
national income in favor of the few. Naturally, these above-mentioned phenomena would
likely result in higher lending rates, lower deposit rates and hence higher lending-depositrate spread as well as predatory pricing behavior in the banking industry.
Customarily, originating loans would provide some non-interest incomes besides the
interest incomes to the originating institutions in any economic environment. However, in
a fairly corrupted environment, there may be some “other benefits” for both the
originating institutions and possibly their management as well. Naturally, it is easier to
ask for and the borrowers are more likely to agree to providing “other benefits” in the
declining lending rate environment than when the rate is rising. Certainly, a decline in
deposit rate widens the spread, which allows lending institutions to originate loans atlower lending rate and still maintain the old spread. This coupled with the high elasticity
of demand precipitate a significant increase in demand for loans, which in turn will create
opportunities for lending institutions and their management to generate lucrative “other
benefits” and hence the observed quicker responses. Asymmetrically, in the rising rate
environment, the new loans must be generated at higher lending rate and the possibly
negative attendant impacts on “other benefits” do not provide attractive opportunities for
lending institutions and their management, and hence the observed slower responses. As
aforementioned, Bangladeshi banking industry is operating in the high rate, corrupted
environment, when deposit rate changes causing changes in the spread, lendinginstitutions must weigh the marginal non- interest benefits to both the originating
institutions and their management against marginal loss in interest income in originating
new loans at the new lending rate to restore the spread to the threshold. This benefit
maximizing process in the face of highly elasticity of demand for loans precipitated by
high rate environment would be a very plausible explanation of the empirical findings of
the above pattern of the asymmetric adjustment process in the Bangladeshi banking
industry.
Another challenge for the banking industry in the country is with electronic banking such
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as online banking. This system was introduced since 2009, although online banking has
bright prospects, it involves some serious financial risks. The major risk of online
banking includes operational risks (e.g. security risks, system design, implementation and
maintenance risks); customer misuse of products and services risks; legal risks (e.g.
without proper legal support, money laundering may be influenced); strategic risks;reputation risks (e.g. in case the bank fails to provide secure and trouble free e-banking
services, this will cause reputation risk); credit risks; market risks; and liquidity risks.
Therefore, identification of relevant risks, and formulation and implementation of proper
risk management policies and strategy formulations and implementations are important
for the scheduled banks while conducting online banking system.
It is theoretically well articulated and supported by empirical studies that investment in
physical capital or otherwise is inversely related to the level of market interest rates.
Moreover, the positive relationships between investments and economic growth as wellas social progress are well established. National economic policy consists of three
components: Monetary policy, fiscal policy and exchange rate policy. These three
policies must be coordinated to achieve overall economic goals because their adjustment
processes operate in different time frames. To this end, whatever reasons causing high
market rates would definitely hinder the economic growth, industrialization, as well as
social progress of the country. Bangladesh is, no doubt, one of the vivid examples of
these phenomena in the world! It is a very difficult to address these issues using only one
component without free market disciplines! Bangladeshi banking sector has gone through
several restructuring and reforms, but cannot overcome any of these problems. The mainreason is the nexus between bureaucrats, politicians, civilians, bankers. They are playing
prisoner's dilemma game whose winning strategy is not to disclose the corruption but to
participate in the process. Moreover, exchange rate is being manipulated in favor of a
group of business magnets and remittance senders to Bangladesh to give them special
privilege. How else can the fact of slow economic development, industrialization, and
social progress in the last 41 years, including perennial banking sector problems be
explained?
Not only Pareto optimality theory but even the theory of second best cannot be applied in
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the economy as alternative funding sources from the non-government organizations are
also charging too high interest rates. The effective interest rate charged by the four largest
micro-credit institutions are the Grameen Bank, which charges around 30.5%, the BRAC
at 44.8%, ASA at 44.8%, and the PROSHIKA charging at around 42.3%. Through Micro
credit regulatory agency, the current government did set the ceiling interest rate in case of NGOs at 27% which is still relatively high. Moreover, starting from the Grameen Bank
(which is a statutory institution) and some big NGOs have a number of other types of
business for stated social development purposes in the informal sector. However, these
activities of these micro credit agencies are not currently regulated, but needs to be
supervised and regulated as well. It is not understandable why the micro credit regulatory
agency doesn‟t look after these businesses.
5.0 Discussions and Conclusions
Clearly, the root causes of the Bangladeshi financial sector problem are the lack of
market discipline due to lack of competition in the banking industry. Excessive
government intervention and political connections, economic and political corruptions,
operational and managerial inefficiency and ineffectiveness result in vicious circle that
inhibits economic development, industrialization, and social progresses in poor anddeveloping countries in general and in Bangladesh in particular. The desired
characteristics of the economy have been elusive for Bangladesh due to the political will,
or lack thereof. The competitiveness and the transparency of the market economy will
reduce the lending-deposit rate spread. These cannot be achieved in the absence of the
infrastructure of a well-functioning market economy. Bangladesh bank recently decides
to give permission to open more new banks. This may bring fruitful results if it can be
properly handled to mobilize savings and channel those into productive sectors. Besides,
loans obtained by the government from the banking sector seems to overburden the
banking system and may be a cause of crowding out private investment. BangladeshBank seems to even fail in its primary function of price stabilization with current inflation
creeping into a rate around 8.126% per year (source: International Monetary Fund - 2011
World Economic Outlook).As a resultant factor purchasing power of the people of the
country has declined. Moreover, the capital market, especially share market should be
more properly regulated and try deal with the perennial problem of corruption, insider
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trading, and market manipulation by selected but powerful and politically well-connected
few elites.
With a market economy structure, the following changes will significantly improve the
financial sector, economic growth, industrialization, and social progress in Bangladesh.But first and foremost is still the free market discipline, provided by the free market
economy subject to prudent regulation and oversight, and not excessive government
direct interventions. Micro credit regulatory agency may be redesigned and renamed and
it should take steps for regulating both lending as well as social businesses of NGOs as
well as the Grameen Bank. Otherwise it will be difficult for reducing poverty in the rural
areas and improving women empowerment.
In a well-functioning market economy, financial business and management of bank and
non-bank intermediaries would likely be more efficient; otherwise, they would beeliminated from the market place. Undesirable phenomena such as unethical behavior,
crimes and irregularities like money laundering, black-marketeering, undue profiteering
and loan defaulting are fairly easy to detect (sooner or later) and rectify by effective rules,
regulations and supervision in a market economy. Additionally, sound financial business
can be established so that financial sector can be free from all sorts of political
interference. Political pressure for disbursing loans and prohibiting against those who
create scam in the capital markets in 2010-11 and several other times should be stopped
and legal actions against perpetrators should be taken without any sort of prejudice.
Defaulters as well as market manipulators would be disciplined. Investment Corporationof Bangladesh should be reactivated and the DSE and the CSE should be strengthening
by improved corporate governance.
Additionally as to the personnel, code of conduct, audit and monitoring systems, de-
politicizing the process of appointment of the directors to curb their excessive power to
sanction loans and advances can be established to assure efficiency and effectiveness.
Manpower planning process can be established in the banking industry to improve
productive human resources to prepare the sector for the global challenges. In the
financial sector an ombudsman may be appointed. The ombudsman can actindependently to investigate any complaints regarding financial services and must work
freely and independently. Better financial services and diversified financial products
would be the natural consequence of competitive financial industry. Operational and
administrative expenditures may be reduced through implementing contemporary
financial and competent management structure. Improved customer relationship
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management system to retain existing customers of the financial institutions can be
established in a market economy. If the above measures are carried out and implemented
along with strengthened regulatory environment and additional much needed financial
sector reforms, a better and more efficient financial sector may evolve over time and
serve better the development needs of the country.