challenges and perspectives of next generation access · " e-education (e-learning, distant...

Challenges and Perspectives of NextGeneration Access

Prof. Vladimir PoulkovFaculty of TelecommunicationsTechnical University of Sofia

Bulgaria

NGA Impact on Society

Economic and Social Development. Access to adequate broadband services has crucial importance to theeconomic and social development. Internet accounts for on average 3.4% of GDP and as much as 6% of GDP inadvanced economies.

Jobs. Enterprises with strong web presence are a significant driver of innovation and job creation.

Competitiveness. Advanced NGA services are crucial to achieve the productivity growth necessary to improvecompetitiveness, create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and jobs.

Attraction of Foreign Investments. The availability of NGA will enable the most advanced uses of cloudcomputing technology and deliver additional jobs and investment from global corporations.

Healthcare Reform. e-Health technologies such as remote monitoring and remote diagnosis provide a tangibleopportunity to shift the balance of healthcare away from the hospitals and into the community.

Transport. Use of NGA for increased e-Working and interactive traffic management will reduce peak traffic flows,impacting positively on energy use, carbon emissions and efficiency generally.

Education and e-Learning. NGA will provide a platform to transform the educational experience by bringingdynamic resources into the classroom and enabling seamless communication between teachers, students and parents.

Citizens, Consumers and Government. NGA will give all citizens access to the same information and opportunityregardless of age, class or location.

Regional Development. Deployment of NGA will help to resolve many of the key issues associated with remoteregions thereby enhancing the local productivity capacity of local economies.

Economic and Social Development. Access to adequate broadband services has crucial importance to theeconomic and social development. Internet accounts for on average 3.4% of GDP and as much as 6% of GDP inadvanced economies.

Jobs. Enterprises with strong web presence are a significant driver of innovation and job creation.

Competitiveness. Advanced NGA services are crucial to achieve the productivity growth necessary to improvecompetitiveness, create new opportunities for entrepreneurship and jobs.

Attraction of Foreign Investments. The availability of NGA will enable the most advanced uses of cloudcomputing technology and deliver additional jobs and investment from global corporations.

Healthcare Reform. e-Health technologies such as remote monitoring and remote diagnosis provide a tangibleopportunity to shift the balance of healthcare away from the hospitals and into the community.

Transport. Use of NGA for increased e-Working and interactive traffic management will reduce peak traffic flows,impacting positively on energy use, carbon emissions and efficiency generally.

Education and e-Learning. NGA will provide a platform to transform the educational experience by bringingdynamic resources into the classroom and enabling seamless communication between teachers, students and parents.

Citizens, Consumers and Government. NGA will give all citizens access to the same information and opportunityregardless of age, class or location.

Regional Development. Deployment of NGA will help to resolve many of the key issues associated with remoteregions thereby enhancing the local productivity capacity of local economies.

2Brainstorming Workshop on 5G Standardization: WISDOM

01 September 2014, GISFI; Delhi, India.

NGA Impact on Society

Correlation Fixed Broadband Penetration and Competitiveness

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45

Fixed broadband lines per 100 population

WEF

's G

loba

l Com

petit

ive

Inde

x sc

ore

DenmarkNetherlands

KoreaLuxembourg

Sweden

Germany

FranceBelgium

UKFinland

Malta

USJapan

Austria

Estonia

Ireland

SloveniaCyprus

Spain

Italy

Czech Rep.

HungaryLithuaniaPortugal

LatviaSlovakia

Poland

Bulgaria

Romania

3

Correlation Fixed Broadband Penetration and Competitiveness

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45

Fixed broadband lines per 100 population

WEF

's G

loba

l Com

petit

ive

Inde

x sc

ore

DenmarkNetherlands

KoreaLuxembourg

Sweden

Germany

FranceBelgium

UKFinland

Malta

USJapan

Austria

Estonia

Ireland

SloveniaCyprus

Spain

Italy

Czech Rep.

HungaryLithuaniaPortugal

LatviaSlovakia

Poland

Bulgaria

Romania

"An increase in the broadband penetration rate by 10 percentage pointsraises annual growth in per-capita GDP by 0.9 to 1.5 percentage points“

(Czernich et al. - CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 2861, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, 2009)

Brainstorming Workshop on 5G Standardization: WISDOM01 September 2014, GISFI; Delhi, India.

Digital Agenda for Europe

“…NGA has the power to transform national economies by improvingproductivity, innovation, and economic competitiveness…”

Targets 30 Mbps available to all citizens by 2020 50% households subscribing to 100 Mbps by 2020

Investments required Up to 60 billion EUR >>> 30 Mbps to all citizens by 2020 Up to 270 billion EUR >>> 50% households subscribing to 100 Mbps by 2020

Important!

Only investments are not enough to achieve the DAE objectives!Public intervention and national strategies are needed!New technical and technological solutions!

“…NGA has the power to transform national economies by improvingproductivity, innovation, and economic competitiveness…”

Targets 30 Mbps available to all citizens by 2020 50% households subscribing to 100 Mbps by 2020

Investments required Up to 60 billion EUR >>> 30 Mbps to all citizens by 2020 Up to 270 billion EUR >>> 50% households subscribing to 100 Mbps by 2020

Important!

Only investments are not enough to achieve the DAE objectives!Public intervention and national strategies are needed!New technical and technological solutions!



Technological Opportunities and Challenges

Potential Technologies to Deliver NGA

Fibre to the Cabinet (FTTC) – speeds of 40Mbps to 100Mbps

Fibre to the premises (FTTP) – speeds of 70Mbps to 100Mbps

VDSL – speeds of 25Mbps to 100Mbps

Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3.0 technology - speeds in excessof 100Mbps

Fixed Wireless – speeds of 1Mbps to 100Mbps

Wireless Mobile / Mobile Broadband – speeds of up to 30Mbps

WiMAX, Long Term Evolution (LTE) - speeds of up to 100Mbps

Satellite – speeds of up to 10 Mbps

5G –……..speeds higher than 1 Gbps……..

Fibre to the Cabinet (FTTC) – speeds of 40Mbps to 100Mbps

Fibre to the premises (FTTP) – speeds of 70Mbps to 100Mbps

VDSL – speeds of 25Mbps to 100Mbps

Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) 3.0 technology - speeds in excessof 100Mbps

Fixed Wireless – speeds of 1Mbps to 100Mbps

Wireless Mobile / Mobile Broadband – speeds of up to 30Mbps

WiMAX, Long Term Evolution (LTE) - speeds of up to 100Mbps

Satellite – speeds of up to 10 Mbps

5G –……..speeds higher than 1 Gbps……..



Technological Opportunities and Challenges

5G Radio Access - Perspective Technology to Deliver NGA

Some news….. May 16, 2014. “…Australian telco Telstra says it has demonstrated “live

network speeds of 450 Mbps” with LTE Advanced Carrier Aggregationtechnology …”.

2 July 2014. “…Ericsson showed live, over-the-air 5G running atspeeds of 5Gb/s, in a demonstration watched by senior managers fromNTT Docomo and SK Telecom. The company was showing the 5 Gb/sdemonstration despite implementation of 5G not being expected until2020….”

19 August 2014. “…SingTel, in collaboration with Samsung andEricsson, today broke new ground in the mobile industry by unveilingthe world’s first commercial 300Mbps 4G LTE-Advanced service forsmartphones…”

Some news….. May 16, 2014. “…Australian telco Telstra says it has demonstrated “live

network speeds of 450 Mbps” with LTE Advanced Carrier Aggregationtechnology …”.

2 July 2014. “…Ericsson showed live, over-the-air 5G running atspeeds of 5Gb/s, in a demonstration watched by senior managers fromNTT Docomo and SK Telecom. The company was showing the 5 Gb/sdemonstration despite implementation of 5G not being expected until2020….”

19 August 2014. “…SingTel, in collaboration with Samsung andEricsson, today broke new ground in the mobile industry by unveilingthe world’s first commercial 300Mbps 4G LTE-Advanced service forsmartphones…”



Techno-economical Opportunities and Challenges

Technology Selection Considerations

In making decisions about technology, there are two major critical issuesto be considered:

The first issue is the population density and building structures.

For instance, high-rises versus single-family homes of the area where planned tobuild NGA, as well as the customer penetration that is likely to be achieved there.

The industry standard cost for building an NGA infrastructure in a rural area isroughly four times the cost to build in an urban area, and the utilization rate is oftenlower, when it actually needs to be higher than in urban areas to justify deployment.The result is that it is not financially viable to implement FTTC or FTTP solutionsacross all areas.

New technological alternatives offered by 4G and especially 5G wirelesstechnologies are expected to overcome some of these financial obstacles!

The second is the array of technology choices for NGA, each of whichcomes with its advantages and disadvantages.

In making decisions about technology, there are two major critical issuesto be considered:

The first issue is the population density and building structures.

For instance, high-rises versus single-family homes of the area where planned tobuild NGA, as well as the customer penetration that is likely to be achieved there.

The industry standard cost for building an NGA infrastructure in a rural area isroughly four times the cost to build in an urban area, and the utilization rate is oftenlower, when it actually needs to be higher than in urban areas to justify deployment.The result is that it is not financially viable to implement FTTC or FTTP solutionsacross all areas.

New technological alternatives offered by 4G and especially 5G wirelesstechnologies are expected to overcome some of these financial obstacles!

The second is the array of technology choices for NGA, each of whichcomes with its advantages and disadvantages.



Techno-economical Challenges(Example)

FTTHArchitectures andReference points

Source: Breuer D., Geilhardt F., Hülsermann R., Kind M., Lange C., MonathT.,Weis E. OpportunitiesforNext-GenerationOptical Access. IEEE Communications Magazine, pp. 17 -24, February, 2011.


01 September 2014, GISFI; Delhi, India..

FTTHArchitectures andReference points

Techno-economical Challenges(Example)

Source: Breuer D., Geilhardt F., Hülsermann R., Kind M., Lange C., MonathT.,Weis E. OpportunitiesforNext-GenerationOptical Access. IEEE Communications Magazine, pp. 17 -24, February, 2011.



Techno-economical Perspectives and Challenges

Cost reduction objectives

• Up to 80% of the costs are linkedto civil engineering

• These costs are unnecessarily highdue to the presence of variousbottlenecks and economicinefficiencies.

• As a result rural areas often tooexpensive to cover.

• 5G Radio Access - a cost effectivealternative for the last mile…

10

• Up to 80% of the costs are linkedto civil engineering

• These costs are unnecessarily highdue to the presence of variousbottlenecks and economicinefficiencies.

• As a result rural areas often tooexpensive to cover.

• 5G Radio Access - a cost effectivealternative for the last mile…


.

Techno-economical Perspectives and Challenges

Cost reduction objectives

Better use of existing infrastructureand more transparency, incl. cross-utility

Improved coordination of civilengineering

Reduce costsof broadbandrollout by20 to 30%and make iteasier

11

Improved coordination of civilengineering

Simplify permit granting process

Buildings ready for access to high-speed internet

Reduce costsof broadbandrollout by20 to 30%and make iteasier


.

Investment Perspectives and Challenges

Meeting the NGA objective cannot be expected to be done onlywith private investments, as there is: a considerable uncertainty about consumer interest in and

willingness to pay for NGA, thus high initial investments (CAPEX)cannot be undone if demand turns out to be insufficient;

a variability of key issues severely influencing the business case(regulatory choices, retail market share, wholesale revenues, etc.).

The rollout of NGA will require private investment combined withforeign, national and local government support.In this relation:

Public money is seen as a very important instrument to incentivize rolloutactivities – especially in investment unfriendly areas (low-density areas).

Meeting the NGA objective cannot be expected to be done onlywith private investments, as there is: a considerable uncertainty about consumer interest in and

willingness to pay for NGA, thus high initial investments (CAPEX)cannot be undone if demand turns out to be insufficient;

a variability of key issues severely influencing the business case(regulatory choices, retail market share, wholesale revenues, etc.).

The rollout of NGA will require private investment combined withforeign, national and local government support.In this relation:

Public money is seen as a very important instrument to incentivize rolloutactivities – especially in investment unfriendly areas (low-density areas).



Investment Perspectives and Challenges

There are opportunities for the realization of high level investment PPP modelsthat could be applied for NGA networks, all of which are available to the publicsector for funding network deployment to meet the Digital Agenda objectives.These models represent a range of options for combining public and privateinvestment, and offer differing levels of involvement, commitment and retainedrisk by the public sector. Examples are:

• private design, build and operate;• public outsourcing;• joint venture;• public design, build and operate.

The challenge is to find the most suitable model as each model is applicable indifferent circumstances, depending on the scope of the required infrastructure,the specific aims of the public sector, and the investment risk and appetite ofpotential private sector partners.

There are opportunities for the realization of high level investment PPP modelsthat could be applied for NGA networks, all of which are available to the publicsector for funding network deployment to meet the Digital Agenda objectives.These models represent a range of options for combining public and privateinvestment, and offer differing levels of involvement, commitment and retainedrisk by the public sector. Examples are:

• private design, build and operate;• public outsourcing;• joint venture;• public design, build and operate.

The challenge is to find the most suitable model as each model is applicable indifferent circumstances, depending on the scope of the required infrastructure,the specific aims of the public sector, and the investment risk and appetite ofpotential private sector partners.



Investment Perspectives and Challenges(Example)



Regulatory and Standardization Challenges

Considering that:• in rural/non-competitive areas the focus is expected to be incentivizing

private investments by public funding, PPP models and operatorcoordination/cooperation;

• in areas with no private investments plans PPP models with partialpublic funding must be stimulated;

• in areas with no private interest at all fully publicly owned NGA networksmust be build with funding coming from municipalities and government.

A supporting regulatory model is vital for the NGA rollout and needsto balance the trade-off between infrastructure competition andinvestments.

It is key to develop the regulatory model in close collaboration withall relevant stakeholders and standardization bodies to ensure anoptimal model selection & deployment!

Considering that:• in rural/non-competitive areas the focus is expected to be incentivizing

private investments by public funding, PPP models and operatorcoordination/cooperation;

• in areas with no private investments plans PPP models with partialpublic funding must be stimulated;

• in areas with no private interest at all fully publicly owned NGA networksmust be build with funding coming from municipalities and government.

A supporting regulatory model is vital for the NGA rollout and needsto balance the trade-off between infrastructure competition andinvestments.

It is key to develop the regulatory model in close collaboration withall relevant stakeholders and standardization bodies to ensure anoptimal model selection & deployment!



Challenges to stimulate demand & subscription

Realization of different initiatives stimulating the use of NGA, such as:

Development of ICT strategies leading to specific initiatives pushing thedemand side, e.g. stimulating:

• e-Government,• e-Education (e-learning, distant education)• e-Health,• e-Business (e-banking, smart grids, smart buildings, work from home and flexible working

time)• other e-Services,

Obliging government agencies, ministries and public institutions to “connect”to 5G and fiber;

Involving all agencies in initiatives pushing the demand side; Supporting private companies when using services requiring NGA (e.g. big

data and cloud services) and installing 5G and fiber networks with variousmechanisms (tax incentives, subsidies, free education etc.);

Supporting households for using/subscribing to novel high speed services; Others…..

Realization of different initiatives stimulating the use of NGA, such as:

Development of ICT strategies leading to specific initiatives pushing thedemand side, e.g. stimulating:

• e-Government,• e-Education (e-learning, distant education)• e-Health,• e-Business (e-banking, smart grids, smart buildings, work from home and flexible working

time)• other e-Services,

Obliging government agencies, ministries and public institutions to “connect”to 5G and fiber;

Involving all agencies in initiatives pushing the demand side; Supporting private companies when using services requiring NGA (e.g. big

data and cloud services) and installing 5G and fiber networks with variousmechanisms (tax incentives, subsidies, free education etc.);

Supporting households for using/subscribing to novel high speed services; Others…..



Organizational Challenges

Some of the following issues that should be considered…..

Establishment of a “NGA National Coordination and Management Council” for thedevelopment of NGA and its realization.

Establishment of several inter-institutional working groups for considering and proposingsolutions on key issues related to NGA technology, investments, regulations aiming atacceleration and stimulation the development and use of NGA.

Preparation and adoption of a program for the implementation of a "National plan fordeployment NGA" along with urgent measures, recommendations, national and regionalmodels of public-private partnership, performance stages and forms of governance,management and control.

Institutional development of an “Unified National Information Access Point” for stakeholdersin relation to the investment process.

Updating and collecting data for the NGA infrastructure.

Some of the following issues that should be considered…..

Establishment of a “NGA National Coordination and Management Council” for thedevelopment of NGA and its realization.

Establishment of several inter-institutional working groups for considering and proposingsolutions on key issues related to NGA technology, investments, regulations aiming atacceleration and stimulation the development and use of NGA.

Preparation and adoption of a program for the implementation of a "National plan fordeployment NGA" along with urgent measures, recommendations, national and regionalmodels of public-private partnership, performance stages and forms of governance,management and control.

Institutional development of an “Unified National Information Access Point” for stakeholdersin relation to the investment process.

Updating and collecting data for the NGA infrastructure.



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