challenges and opportunities€¦ · trends in public education resources per child ... global...
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Harnessing a DividendChallenges and Opportunities
Parfait M. Eloundou-EnyegueOctober 21, 2013
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How to Harness a Dividend?
1. Current consensus accurate but vague
2. We need explicit discussion of methods
3. One useful approach is a step-by-step analysis of DD production
4. Its application confirms past insights ….– A wide matrix of challenges– Focus on 2 steps out of the 5– The importance of education and FPPs
5. BUT it also recommends an expanded perspective – Education Policy > Raising schooling outcomes – FPP > achieving desired fertility – Dependency > Age dependency– Transition from school to work > Waiting time
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Plausible but not Automatic
• Wide variation in size of first dividends across world region (Mason 2006): from -0.09(SSA) to 0.62 (LAC) btw 1970 and 2000.
• Recent data on fertility-related gains in public education spending per capita likewise show great variation
• Q: Why these variations?
Trends in Public Education Resources per child (1990-2010) [Eloundou-Enyegue and Giroux 2012]
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Reasons for Variation
CURRENT CONSENSUS
• Good Policies & Economic Conditions
• UNECA (2013): – Continued fertility declines– Enhanced employment – Enhanced human capital
• Jain (2013)– Common causes of fertility & dividends– Labor force size – Quality of labor force
• Pbs with Current Consensus– Vagueness
– Transparency
– Relevancy
– Relative Importance
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Advancing the Consensus
• Defining the DD: – Window of opportunity?
– Resource bonus?
– Substantive outcomes of change in age structure?
• Specifying the Challenges? – Hurdles themselves?
– Resources to overcome hurdles
• Methodology – How are the favorable circumstances identified ?
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Methodological Approaches (1)
Logical(RL)
Mathematical(Canning&Fink)
Simulation(Canning et al)
NTA (Mason)
DdF
? ? ?
??
?
Dd
Fβ β β
ββ
Policies
β
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Methodological Approaches Strengths & Weaknesses
Regression Logical Mathematical NTA Simulation
Data Needs +/- + +
Details on process
+ + +
Theoretical sophistication
+ +
Internal validity
+ + +
Country specificity
+ + + +
External validity
+ +
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Steps in the Dividend-Production Process
Age dependency
Fertility Decline
1
Age dependency
2
EconomicDependency
3
Saving & Investment
4
Eco growth
5
Inequality
6
7Other mediator
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STEPS
Fertility transition
Swift, broad-based decline
Mortality Supportive family struct.
Family Environment
Education Child labor Women’s LFPHomogamyNucleation
National envt. FPP Employment rate Debt Effective policy
Global envt. Global support to FP
MGD agenda
A Matrix of Challenges & Opportunities
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Education FPP
Swift, irreversible, and broad-based transitions within supportive families
Productive investment of the resource bonus
Key Steps & Factors
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Expanded Scope for Education and FPP Policy Investments
Education • Beyond raising education
outcomes
• Raise the returns to schooling
• Manage the transition from school to work and adulthood
• Harness the potential of school systems as source of employment
FPP • Beyond achieving desired fertility
• Achieve supportive families
– Parenting
– Union stability
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Old dependents
Young dependents
WAITERS
Active
Academic maintenance/ service;Internships; tutoring;
Professional DvptCommunication; leadership; ICTs, languages; career planning
Personal DvptFamily planning/parenting;Domestic skills
Community/Natl. ServiceVolunteering; community projects
STAYERS
Expanded View of Age Dependency
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How to Harness a Dividend?
• Multiple Challenges arising at # steps and domains
• Key Steps are #1 and #4 Step 1: Transitions must be swift, irreversible, broad-based & occur within supportive families
Step 4: the resources freed must be invested productively
• Strategic Investments in education and FPP can foster both steps
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How to Harness a Dividend?
• This requires an expanded perspective in which
• Education > educational outcomes
• FPP > achieving desired family size
• Economic > Age dependency
• Transition from school to work > Waiting time