challenges and opportunities in the hydropower sector of pakistan pervaiz...
TRANSCRIPT
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C E N T R E F O R C L I M A T E R E S E A R C H & D E V E L O P M E N T C O M S A T S U N I V E R S I T Y I S L A M A B A D ,
P A K I S T A N
A U G U S T 2 9 , 2 0 1 8
Challenges and Opportunities in the Hydropower sector of Pakistan
Pervaiz Amir, PhD ([email protected])
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Storyline
Hydropower Dams in Pakistan’ history, contribution to agriculture, industrial and economic growth
Tarbela Dam WCD case- actual benefits exceed predicted. Dam Justification irrigation but hydropower crucial output Dams neutralize flood impacts? Climate Change, environmental
flows, salvaging dead rivers Hydropower generates benefit spread Dams and Food Security/agriculture Dams mega investments, delays even costlier Dams regulate water and symbolize development-monuments of
human endeavor Dams have trans-boundary implications, India, Afghanistan Great plans but slow or no implementation-Policy 2018 Supreme Court emerges a new leader in resource mobilization and
recognizer of dams for National Water Security
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Objectives
Focus on Hydropower sector and its current and future scenarios, benefit sharing, water policy
a. agriculture impacts from dams
b. Transboundary issues within IBT, 1960
Future Research Topics
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Status of Dams in Pakistan
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Outlook of Hydropower Development
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Two more references for reading
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Challenge #1 Water Security
Amount 145 MAF available to Manage
Water Security only 30 days or less
Population 2010 (180 million ) 2035 (350 million)
Global Warming and Glacier melt (80% melting)
Transboundary conflicts-
Avg vs. Actual flows Pakistan 12.35 MAF out of
145 MAF India 278 MAF out of 750
MAF
Climate Change-Treaties under threat--Realities
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Challenge #2 Energy Security
Pakistan faces short fall of 5000 MW
Energy Mix Hydro Nuclear Oil
Hydropower potential is 60,000 MW- alternatives yes but no demonstrated contribution
Price Rs. 2/watt alternate Rs 18 per watt
Losing 5+% GDP annually due to shortfalls
Discontent, political turmoil and social disharmony
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Challenge # 4 Buffering Climate Change
Glacier Melt saved in dams or in dangerous GLOF–hydraulic challenges
Why dams-- if flows projected to decline
Living with half empty glasses
Dams during floods and droughts
Dams as instruments of Planned Adaptation
What if no climate change takes place?? Are investments in dams worthwhile
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Challenge# 5 Stabilizing Economic Growth/welfare/Equity/Distribution
Its my dam too and so is my road!
Gainers compensating losers
Upfront investments in technology, agriculture, planning and human capital
Role of markets in allocating water and electricity
National Engagement- the US I-40 experience
Kinks from Climate Change e.g. flood aberrations
New avenues and area development –beyond status quo
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Transboundary Challenge
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Pay-back of Hydropower
Very high e.g. Malakand III
Delays raise costs
Cost over runs common
Considerable corruption in mega projects
B/C high but tricky
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50 B Question! For Pakistan Climate Change is a matter of
Developing Water Security. The costs are US $ 1.85/MAF and 25 MAF water development is mere replacement works.
The New financiers are in search of markets and South Asia provides the population center of the World
Debt Servicing/write-off to address climate change adaptation
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Agriculture challenging without dams
India situation vs. Pakistani situation
Feeding large populations
Indus Basin not sustainable
Must apply first class water to first class agriculture and not first class water to third class agriculture
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Water Policy April 2018
Identifies Munda and Basha as two major hydropower dams
Leaves out KB-a strategic challenge
Today water commissioners meeting in Lahore
First come First serve—India is doing that
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Using our canals and rivers for raft mounted hydropower generation
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Article 161 of the Constitution of Pakistan32
‘The net profits earned by the Federal Government,or any undertaking established or administered bythe Federal Government from the bulk generation ofpower at a hydro-electric station shall be paid to the
Province in which the hydro-electric station is situated’.
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Lessons Learned from Hydropower Dams in Pakistan
Indecision is costly Dams have served Pakistan’s interests well New Dams will require extensive benefit sharing-especially those
that are contentious Environmental concerns only given “lip service” Mismanagement, governance and corruption are very serious
issues in the water sector-is it only Pakistan specific? Climate change is forcing response in water sector-it has to be
both demand and supply side based Platforms that bridge the intellectual gap and guide the process of
achieving water security can play important role Capacity Building of Policy Institutions and Water Managers Way forward is in implementation, evaluating , adjusting and
again implementing with minimum time lag
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Future Research
1. Climate Change impacts on Water, its availability and variability
2. Positioning for Indus Basin Treaty and Kabul Treaty—research studies
3. Financial options for Hydropower projects
4. Science based decision making and use of drone, nano, satellite and cutting edge technology
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Take homes
Hydropower is the cheapest and cleanest option
Hydropower and irrigation water storage vital for National Security
Climate change will challenge the water resource in unprecedented manner
Re-bundling CPEC resources for hydropower
Much un-utilized and un explored potential of canal/river systems to contribute hydropower
Re-aligning Research
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Thank You!