ch. 2 “energy and geopolitics” from the risk pivot: great powers, international security, and...
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CHINA’S ENERGY INSECURITY ECONOMY FUELED BY ACCESS TO CHEAP ENERGY & INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON ENERGY IMPORTS “GOING OUT STRATEGY” IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA ACCEPT INCREASED INVESTMENT RISK “NON-INTERFERENCE”TRANSCRIPT
CH. 2 “ENERGY AND GEOPOLITICS”
FROM THE RISK PIVOT: GREAT POWERS, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, AND THE ENERGY REVOLUTION
BY BRUCE JONES & DAVID STEVEN
AMY ROZNOWSKI
ENERGY & GEOPOLITICSGLOBAL ENERGY MKT:
STRUGGLE BETWEEN ESTABLISHED AND EMERGING POWERSDOES ENERGY INSECURITY MAGNIFY DISPUTES OR CAN THE PRESSURE BE MANAGED?
KEY ARGUMENTS:ENERGY INSECURITY FUNDAMENTAL CHALLENGE FOR CHINA AND INDIA PRE-EXISTING RIVALRIES ENHANCE GEOPOLITICAL PRESSURE
(SOUTH CHINA SEA)ACCESS AND TRANSPORT ROUTE COMPETITION CAN BE MANAGED
(ARCTIC)
US STRATEGIC OPTIONS:INCREASED ENERGY SECURITY OF US USED TO WEAKEN/MAGINALIZE CHINAALLOW ROOM FOR CHINA TO PARTICIPATE IN GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET
ROLE MODEL FOR GLOBAL STANDARDBUILD SHARED ENERGY SECURITY
CHINA’S ENERGY INSECURITYECONOMY FUELED BY ACCESS TO CHEAP ENERGY & INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON ENERGY IMPORTS“GOING OUT STRATEGY”
IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICAACCEPT INCREASED INVESTMENT RISK
“NON-INTERFERENCE”
CHINA’S STRATEGIC OPTIONSINCREASE DOMESTIC CAPACITY WHILE RESTRAINING DEMAND
NEW ROUTES OF SUPPLY
EXPAND NAVY AND MILITARY CAPACITY TO SECURE SUPPLY/TRADE ROUTES
ROUGH SEAS?
OR COOLER WATERS?GLACIAL MELT AND CLIMATE CHANGE IS CREATING THE NEXT MAJOR EMERGING ENERGY MARKET
POTENTIAL CONFLICT?PROVEN YIELDS EXPLOITED BY US, CANADA,
& RUSSIA
INCREASED PRIVATE SECTOR INTEREST
NEW SUPPLY ROUTES AND CHOKE POINTS
CURRENT ARCTIC REALITYARCTIC 5 DISPUTE RESOLUTION
AGREEMENT:
INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE
ILULISSAT DECLARATION
UN PESSIMISTIC
CURRENT RISKS & VULNERABILITIESGLOBAL RISKS
SEARCH FOR ENERGY AMPLIFYING TENSIONSEMERGING POWERS INCREASED EXPOSURE TO RISKS FROM RESOURCE IMPORTSCOMBINED DEVELOPED AND EMERGING POWER CONSUMPTION EFFECTS ON CLIMATE
US VULNERABILITYCOMMODITY SHOCK
MORE RESILIENT TO PRICE SHOCKS LESS RELIANT ON CHEAP ENERGY FOR HEAVY INDUSTRYSHALE OIL/GASMILITARY CAPACITY
US STRATEGIC OPTIONS“BOOT ON THE THROAT” - “PRESSURE FOR COMPLIANCE” - “STRATEGIC REASSURANCE”
CONFRONTATIONAL; USE ENERGY AND RESOURCES TO WEAKEN CHINA’S GEOPOLITICAL POSITION AND SLOW RATE OF GROWTH
POTENTIAL COAsREDUCE/CUT ENERGY SUPPLY – BLOCKADEDIPLOMATICALLY SQUEEZE CHINA OUT OF NEW MARKETS – BLOCK
INVESTMENTSINCREASE PERCEPTION OF ENERGY INSECURITY – SELF-SUFFICIENCY &
ABLE TO ACCEPT MORE INSTABILITY & HIGHER PRICES (CHINA HURT MORE)
PITFALLS“BOOT ON THE THROAT” - “PRESSURE FOR COMPLIANCE” - “STRATEGIC REASSURANCE”
INCREASED GLOBAL ENERGY PRICES
DAMAGE GLOBAL TRADE SYSTEM & HINDER GLOBALIZATION
DETERIORATION OF US-CHINA &/OR US-RUSSIA RELATIONSENERGY USED AS POLITICAL WEAPON
POTENTIALLY INCREASE CHINA-RUSSIA RELATIONSREDUCES CHINESE LONG-TERM ENERGY SECURITY
HARDENING OF POLICY TOWARD CHINA
US STRATEGIC OPTIONS“BOOT ON THE THROAT” - “PRESSURE FOR COMPLIANCE” - “STRATEGIC REASSURANCE”
INCREASE PRESSURE THROUGH COMMODITIES BUT ALLOW FOR CHINESE PARTICIPATION IN INT’L ENERGY MARKET – “RACE TO THE TOP”
POTENTIAL COAsUSE ENERGY TO STRENGTHEN POSITION OF ALLIES – DEVELOP DOM ENERGY RESERVES & INCREASE EFFICIENCY
TECH TRANSFER MAINTAIN POSITION IN SoH & STAND-UP TO CHINESE “MARCH WEST”
FOUNDATION OF INT’L ORDER & RESTRICT CHINA & RUSSIA ACCESSSET HIGH STANDARDS FOR ENERGY, FOOD, & MINING INVESTMENTSLEVERAGE CLIMATE CHANGE – LIMIT CARBON SPACE/CARBON TAXPROTECT INDIA
PITFALLS“BOOT ON THE THROAT” - “PRESSURE FOR COMPLIANCE” - “STRATEGIC REASSURANCE”
MISALIGNMENT OF CONGRESS AND INDUSTRY – INEFFICIENT/INEFFECTIVE POLICYTAX INCENTIVES, AID SPENDING, DIRECT SUBSIDIES
INCREASED PERCEPTION OF THREAT FROM CHINA – BENEFIT WORTH RISK?
US STRATEGIC OPTIONS“BOOT ON THE THROAT” - “PRESSURE FOR COMPLIANCE” - “STRATEGIC REASSURANCE”
RESOURCE SECURITY AS GLOBAL MARKET INCENTIVE; INCREASE BURDEN SHARING WITH EMERGING POWERS AS INCENTIVE TO PARTICIPATE IN INT’L ORDER
POTENTIAL COAsMAINTAIN SECURITY POSTURE IN MIDDLE EAST & ENCOURAGE BURDEN SHARING WITH CHINA ELSEWHERE (REDUCE NON-INTERFERENCE POSTURE)ALIGN DOMESTIC AND INT’L POLICIES IN COORDINATION WITH PRIVATE INDUSTRY & UNDER INT’L GOVERNANCE AGREEMENTS
PITFALLS“BOOT ON THE THROAT” - “PRESSURE FOR COMPLIANCE” - “STRATEGIC REASSURANCE”
OVERLAPPING INTERESTS REDUCE GROWTH RATE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
CAREFUL MANAGEMENT OF INCREASED CHINESE INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA
INCREASED & UNMITIGATED CHINESE SECURITY PRESENCE IN INDIAN OCEAN WEAKENS CHINA-INDIA RELATIONS
CONCLUSIONKEY TAKE AWAY: US RESOURCE SECURITY USED FOR GLOBAL STABILITY WITH US AS LEADER
EFFECTS OF GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT:CHINA – STRUGGLE WITH HIGH DEMAND, IMPORT VULNERABILITY, SLOWING
GROWTH, AND RELIANCE ON USINDIA – STRUGGLING INTERNAL POLITICAL ECONOMY AFFECTING ENERGY
SECURITYRUSSIA – POTENTIAL ENERGY MARKET SPOILER BUT FACED WITH INTERNAL
STRESSESUS – EXPOSED TO GLOBAL RISKS; DIRECT EFFECTS FROM ECONOMIC DECLINE OF
ASIA; CANNOT INSULATE ITSELF FROM SHOCKS EVEN WITH INCREASED DOMESTIC SUPPLY
QUESTIONS