cervical cancer screening in the 21 st century : is it time to retire the pap smear ? clinical...
TRANSCRIPT
Cervical Cancer Screening in the 21st Century
: Is it Time to Retire the PAP Smear ?
Clinical Obstetrics and Gynecology
Vol 50/ Number 2/ June 2007
Abstract
Introduction
Limitations of Cytology
Performance of Cytology-based Prevention Programs
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
Using HPV DNA Testing as an Adjunct to Cervical Cytology
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
Summary
Abstract
cytology-based cervical cancer prevention programs
limited sensitivity
expensive to maintain
→ programs based on testing for high-risk types of human
papillomavirus (HPV)
HPV testing
more sensitive than cytology (either conventional or liquid-based)
>30 years old : specificity ↓(slightly)
Abstract
Combination of cervical cytology and HPV testing to screen
: cytology provides little benefit over using HPV testing alone to screen
→ HPV testing alone to screen
→ cervical cytology
: a way to determine which HPV-positive women require additional
follow-up or colposcopy
Introduction
Cervical cytology
the cornerstone of cervical cancer prevention programs
highly effective in many countries
considered by some cancer control experts to be the single most successful approach to the prevention of any cancer
the limitations inherent in cytology-based screening
→cytology-based screening programs have had even less of an impact
Limitations of CytologyRelatively poor sensitivity
the sensitivity of a single Papanicolaou test : 50% for identifying women with CIN 2,3 or cervical cancer (CIN 2+) Meta-analyses that have reviewed the performance of cervical cytology
sensitivity : 30% ~ 87%
specificity : 86% ~ 100% meta-analysis conducted several years ago reviewed 94 screening studies
overall sensitivity of cytology for CIN 2+ : 53% (95% CI 49%-57%)
a review of recent European and North American cervical cancer screening studies by Cuzick et al
19% in a German study
77% in a recent large British study
Limitations of Cytologyliquid-based cytology conventional cytology
for detecting CIN 2+
significantly more sensitive
Systematic
review - publications
through 2003-
no evidence that liquid-based cytology improves the sensitivity
of cytology
Positive predictive value (PPV)
significantly reduced with a relative PPV of 0.61 (95% CI 0.38-0.97)compared with conventional cytology
ASCUS cutoff, the sensitivity
71% (95% CI 58%-81%) 84% (71%-92%).
ASCUS cutoff, PPV
9.4% (95% CI 7-12.3) 11.4% (95% CI 8.5-15.0).
Limitations of Cytology
liquid-based cytology vs conventional cytology
No significant differences of sensitivity or PPV
for the identification of women with CIN 2+
Limitations of Cytology
novel cervical cancer screening strategies
alternative, non–cytology-based screening methods
Performance of cytology-based Prevention Programs
The goal of a cervical cancer prevention programs
to identify high-grade cervical cancer precursors (CIN 2,3)
to allow the lesions to be treated
to prevent the subsequent development of cervical cancer
The effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention programs
: depends on several factors + the sensitivity of the screening test
Other factors that are important include ;
(1) whether or not there is heterogeneity among CIN 2,3 lesions
(2) the time it takes for a CIN 2,3 to progress to an invasive cancer
(ie, the transit time)
(3) the frequency at which screening occurs
(4) screening coverage
(ie, proportion of the target population that is actually screened)
Performance of cytology-based Prevention Programs
Performance of cytology-based Prevention Programs
Long transit time
the time for a CIN 2,3 → an invasive cancer
average 10 years
the introduction of cervical cytology
→reductions in cervical cancer incidence
: highly variable between countries ( reduction range 20% ~ 90%) - Epidemiologic studies from Canada, Scandinavia, and the United
Kingdom
FIGURE 1. Impact of the introduction of organized screening on the incidence of cervical cancer in the United Kingdom. Modified from BMJ. 1999;318:904–908.
In 1988, the National Health Service introduced a comprehensive cytology-based screening program that incorporated a comprehensive system of audits.
The audits included the
clinicians obtaining the cytology specimens
laboratories evaluating the specimens specialists treating women with precursor lesions
1970s ~ 1980s : minimal impact on cervical cancer incidence
“call-recall” system
every woman in England of the targeted ages receives a regular invitation to be screened
screening coverage (1988 ~1995)
: 40% → 85% (↑)
→ incidence of invasive cervical cancer : dropped by 40%
death rate from cervical cancer
: reduced by almost 50%. (by 2004)
Performance of cytology-based Prevention Programs
Compensating for the poor sensitivity of cytology
→ frequent screening
In U.S.
most women are overscreened
some women do not undergo regular screening
10,000 women who develop cervical cancer each year in the U. S.
- recent screening (X) : half of them
- recent screening (O) : half of them
Performance of cytology-based Prevention Programs
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
invasive cervical cancer : 15 “high-risk” or “oncogenic” types of human papilloma virus (HPV)
molecular test for detecting the DNA of high-risk types of HPV in clinical specimens is a solution hybridization test called Hybrid Capture 2 (hc2) (Digene Diagnostics, Gaithersburg, MD)
overcome the limitations of cervical cytology for screening
lower cost
13 high-risk types of HPV : 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, and 68
TABLE 1. Performance of Hybrid Capture 2 and Cervical Cytology for Screening in Women 30 Years of Age and Older in Cross-sectional Studies*The target age for the study was 30 years and older for women and 97% of the women enrolled were in the target age.Modified from references J NatlCancer Inst. 2006;98:765–774; Lancet. 2003;362:1871–1876; Br J Cancer. 2003;88:1570–1577; and Br J Cancer. 2005;93:575–581. presents the results from recent large European trials.
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
Sensitivity
HPV DNA testing > cervical cytology for identifying women with CIN 2,3 or cancer (CIN 2+)
negative predictive value : cytology(-) & high-risk HPV DNA (-)
→extremely high (> 99.9% in most of the studies)
→ risk of having an undetected CIN 2+ lesion in women who are screened with both tests
: very low (approximately 1 in 1000)
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
late adolescent females and young women
: multiple partners within several years of initiating sexual activity
→ prevalence of high-risk HPV DNA positivity ↑↑
→ multiple sequential infections with different types of HPV
Ω most of these infections : transient
women 30 years and older
older they tend, fewer new sexual exposures resulting in fewer new HPV infections
HPV prevalence ↓
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
Specificity
: cervical cytology > HPV DNA testing > 2 tests in combination
women ≥ 30 years old, who are screened using both cytology and
high-risk HPV DNA testing
→ an abnormality on one or the other test
→ require either workup or additional follow-up
--------------------------------------------------------10%
FIGURE 2. Management of women using a combination of cervical cytology and HPV DNA testing for primary screening in women 30 years and older. Modified from Obstet Gynecol. 2004;103:304–309.
Using HPV DNA Testing as an Adjunct to Cervical Cytology
Using HPV DNA Testing as an Adjunct to Cervical Cytology
both high-risk HPV DNA and cytology negative
→ recommended that not require rescreening for 3 years
supported by the results of 2 studies
Study NCI study followed women enrolled from Kaiser Permanente Portland, OR
study from France
F/U up to 10 years for 36 months
result high-risk HPV DNA (-)
→ the risk of developing
biopsy-confirmed CIN 3
: low
cervical cytology
high-risk HPV DNA
→biopsy-confirmed CIN 2+
: 0.08%
(-)
Using HPV DNA Testing as an Adjunct to Cervical Cytology
How to manage HPV DNA (+), cytology (-)
→ reflect these women's risk for having, or developing, CIN2+
HPV DNA (+), cytology (-) Lower risk for having CIN 2+ than are women with ASC-US ( 5~17%)
HPV DNA (+) & Cytology (-) In the French study study from England
CIN 2+ risk 4.2% 2.8%
Using HPV DNA Testing as an Adjunct to Cervical Cytology
HPV DNA(+), cytology(-) → colposcopy not be performed the 2004 Interim Guidance recommends
→ retested in 6 to 12 months using both cervical cytology and HPV
DNA testing (Fig. 2)
persistent HPV infections or
cytology ≥ low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions
→ colposcopy
In the French & English studies in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California
HPV DNA(+) half of women were persistently at 6 months
only 35% were persistent at 12 months
Using HPV DNA Testing as an Adjunct to Cervical Cytology
transiently shed HPV DNA
→ very low risk for having CIN 2+
both repeat tests : cytology(-), HPV DNA (-)
→ 3 yearly screening
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
HPV testing as an adjunct to cytology : long-standing problems
- large numbers of cytotechnicians
- the variability in abnormal rate between laboratories
- relatively slow turnaround times
To maximize the benefits of incorporating HPV testing into screening
→ identify as many women with CIN 2+ as possible at the initial visit,
while limiting the number referred to colposcopy
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
Goal of cervical cancer screening
the risk of cervical cancer
the level of risk reduction
the costs
potential inconvenience or harm to those being screened
• to reduce
• not eliminate
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
common misperception : receive regular screening
→ completely protected against cervical cancer
→ develop cancer
→ their clinician or the cytology laboratory, has failed them
→ frequent litigation for a failure to diagnose cervical cancer
compensatory overscreening by clinicians to try and assure that none of their patients develop cervical cancer
→ increases the costs of screening
→ unnecessary interventions such as colposcopy
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
sensitivity of HPV DNA testing : high
HPV DNA testing with cytology
Cytology with adjunctive HPV testing
Cytology-based screening
→ HPV-based strategy
CIN 2+ dectection
cytology : no cases of CIN 2+ that were missed by HPV testing
1 ~ 3 cases /10,000 compared with using HPV testing alone
12 ~ 30 additional cases
/ 10,000
In 2 South African screening studies
In other European screening studies
utilizing HPV DNA testing alone as the primary screening test
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
several potential approaches that can be used for managing HPV DNA positive women
: Novel HPV-based screening strategies incorporating either “reflex” cytology HPV genotyping, or a combination of both
→ a specimen would be obtained from all women using a liquid collection media suitable for both HPV DNA testing and cytology
→ initially be tested for high-risk types of HPV
→ HPV DNA (+) processed for cytology perform HPV genotyping
or
FIGURE 4. Novel HPV-based screening strategies incorporating either “reflex” cytology HPV genotyping, or a combination of both.
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
most of the high-risk HPV DNA positive
→ developed biopsy-confirmed CIN 3 : HPV 16 or HPV18 In the Kaiser Portland, OR, follow-up study
other high-risk types of HPV
: slightly increased risk
high-risk types of HPV such as HPV 16, 18, 33, 45, or 31 (the 5 most common HPV types found in cervical cancers)
→ to be referred to colposcopy
other high-risk types of HPV
→ followed-up in 12 months with a repeat HPV DNA test
FIGURE 3. Impact of HPV status on the development of CIN 3 in women 30 years and older enrolled from Kaiser, Portland, OR. Solid circles represent women who were HPV 16 positive entry, open circles are those who were HPV 18 positive, solid triangles are women with other high-risk types of HPV, and open triangles are women who were high-risk HPV DNA negative. Modified from J Natl Cancer Inst. 2005;97:1072–1079.
HPV16(+)
HPV18(+)
Other high risk types of HPVHigh-risk DNA (-)
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
Alternative strategy
: screen using HPV DNA testing alone
→ then use a combination of both reflex cytology and HPV
genotyping to identify which HPV DNA positive women need
colposcopy
- even more promising
Summary
novel HPV-based screening
→ overcome many of the limitations of cervical cytology
→ will maximize the number of women with CIN 2+ identified at the
screening visit
→ make loss to follow-up less of a concern
HPV-based screening strategies : sensitivity↑
→ safely extend screening intervals from 3 to 5 years
→ less expensive to the health care system
→ more convenient for patients
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
Several studies have now clearly demonstrated that women infected with certain high-risk types of HPV are at much greater risk for developing CIN 2+ than are women infected with other high-risk types of HPV.
Alterative Strategies for Using HPV DNA Testing for Screening
The problem with eliminating cytology is that when both cytology and HPV DNA testing are utilized, the cytology result allows HPV DNA positive women to be triaged into 2 groups, those requiring colposcopy and those who can simply be followed-up.
This triage function is needed since 5% to 8% of women 30 years and older will be found to be high-risk HPV DNA positive (Table 1)
Over the next decade, the extraordinary advances that have been made in our understanding of the pathogenesis of cervical cancer are going to allow us to develop novel HPV-based screening strategies that will be able to overcome many of the limitations of cervical cytology.
These strategies will maximize the number of women with CIN 2+ identified at the screening visit and make loss to follow-up less of a concern.
Because of the increased sensitivity of these HPV-based screening strategies, we will be able to safely extend screening intervals from 3 to 5 years.
This will be less expensive to the health care system and more convenient for patients.
Already large randomized screening trials are underway in Europe to evaluate whether we can replace cervical cytology with HPV DNA testing.
Hopefully such trials will begin in the United States in the near future.
Limitations of CytologyWhen liquid-based cytology was first introduced, a number of studies found that liquid-based cytology was significantly more sensitive than conventional cervical cytology for detecting CIN 2+.These studies had 1 of 2 designs. With 1 design, clinicians collect both a conventional cytology and a liquid-based cytology from the same patient at the same time. This allows a direct comparison of the performance of the 2 types of cytology. The other study design compares the results obtained using liquid-based cytology with results obtained by the same laboratory using conventional cytology before the introduction of liquid-based cytology (ie, historical controls). Unfortunately, in the majority of the studies the end point was a cytologic one (ie, detection of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions) rather than a histologic one (ie, detection of biopsy-confirmed CIN 2,3). Moreover, both types of studies can be easily biased. Because of these limitations, many in the screening community have remained skeptical that liquid-based cytology is truly more sensitive than conventional cytology.
Limitations of Cytology
A recent systematic review of publications through 2003 that compared the performance of liquid-based cytology with that of conventional cytology concluded that only 4 of 56 published studies provided sufficient verified data to allow any estimates of sensitivity and specificity and comparisons of test performance to be made. The systematic review concluded that there is no evidence in high-quality studies that liquid-based cytology improves the sensitivity of cytology. The review also concluded that randomized clinical trials were needed. Since the systematic review was completed, several randomized trials have been published comparing the performance of the 2 cytology methods. One large randomized study of Italian women 25 to 34 years of age reported that the sensitivity of liquid-based cytology was not significantly higher than that of conventional cytology. The relative sensitivity of liquid-based cytology for CIN 2+ using an atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance cutoff was 1.24 (95% CI 0.75-2.03) compared with that of conventional cytology.
Limitations of Cytology
However, the positive predictive value (PPV) of liquid-based cytology was significantly reduced with a relative PPV of 0.61 (95% CI 0.38-0.97) compared with conventional cytology.
Another publication from the same group focused on women 35 years of age and older and found similar results.
The relative sensitivity of liquid-based cytology in the older population was 1.06 (95% CI 0.72-1.55) compared with conventional cytology.
In this study, the PPV of liquid-based cytology was also significantly reduced (relative PPV=0.58, 95% CI 0.33-0.98) compared with conventional cytology.
In a recent randomized study from South Africa in which all women underwent colposcopy at the time of screening, we found no significant differences in either the sensitivity or PPV of liquid-based cytology compared with conventional cytology for the identification of women with CIN 2+.
At an atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance cutoff, the sensitivity of liquid-based cytology was 71% (95% CI 58%-81%), whereas that of conventional cytology was 84% (71%-92%).
The PPV of liquid-based cytology was 9.4% (95% CI 7-12.3) whereas that for conventional cytology was 11.4% (95% CI 8.5-15.0).
In Norway after the introduction of opportunistic (ie, nonorganized) screening, the incidence of cervical cancer actually increased through the mid-1970s and only subsequently began a somewhat slow decline.
In large part, the minimal impact was attributable to the fact that relatively few women were being screened (ie, there was low coverage) and the screening frequency was too infrequent.
However, in 1995 Norway introduced an organized cytology-based cervical cancer screening program and since its introduction the rates of invasive cervical cancer have dropped considerably.
Performance of cytology-based Prevention Programs
Human Papilloma Virus DNA Testing
Recently, Kaiser Permanente of Northern California began offering HPV DNA testing to all women 30 years of age and older.
On the basis of the data from over 200,000 women, the overall prevalence of high-risk HPV DNA positivity was just 6.4%.
For comparison, 7.8% of the women had some degree of cytological abnormality.
14 In Kaiser, a total of 11.6% of the women had either a cytologic abnormality or were high-risk HPV DNA positive.