CEOS WGISS-2711-15 May, 2009

Toulouse, France

Glenn RutledgeNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Climatic Data CenterAsheville, NC

NOAA's National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

(NOMADS)

Access and Archives for Multi-Model Ensembles and Climate Models

Outline1. Developing advanced archive and access capabilities

for the next generation AOGCM models: - NOMADS and “NOMADS-Next”.

2. The NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP)- An OSSE capability for Climate Models

3. THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Experiment (TIGGE)- Global Interactive Processing System (GIFS)- Multi-Model ensemble access prototype

NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

• provide distributed access to models and associated data; and promote model evaluation.

• foster research within the geo-science communities (ocean, weather, and climate) to study multiple earth systems using collections of distributed data.

• develop institutional partnerships through open source and proprietary technologies, standards, and tools.

NOMADS Goals

• High Availability Servers operational in NOAA’s National Weather Service:

- Boulder, CO- Ft. Worth, TX- Silver Spring, MD

• Ocean-NOMADS at the National Ocean Data Center:

- Charleston, SC.nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov

New NOMADS Services

NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

Direct Client Access

NCEP Dual Ingest & QC

Portals

GDS and TDS

Live Access Server

GrADS, Ferret, MatLab, IDL, IDV, Web browsers or any OPeNDAP enabled client

• Project ACCESS: NASA,

GMU, GMU & OPeNDAP• Project GALEON Unidata• NOMADS Web-Plotter,

http, ftp & binary

subsetting• GIS access (WCS, W*S)

NCDC HDSS Archive

OPeNDAP

http / ftp access

NOAA-wide LAS“sister-servers”

DOE’s Earth System Grid

Collaboration Focus

NCDC Architecture

“NOMADS-Next” under Development

NWP Model• Global Forecast System (GFS), 1 and ½ degree • NCEP Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) w/ restart files• North American Mesoscale (NAM, formally Eta) 1 and 3 hourly • Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 13km and 20km• NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) 30 years 32km• NCEP/NCAR R1/R2 Reanalysis (Climate Data Assimilation System -CDAS) • NCEP Regional Special Model (RSM)• NCEP Global Ensembles and SREF• NCEP Ocean models (Ocean-NOMADS) • NCEP Sea Ice Models• NWS Analysis of Record Real-time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA downscaled RUC to 5km) In situ• NCDC Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) surface temperature and precipitation anomalies • NCDC Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) upper air reference quality data set (formally CARDS)• NCDC Smith-Reynolds Extended Reconstructed and O/I Sea Surface Temperatures (ERSST) and climatologies )NOAA Satellite • No longer serve sat and radar data to focus on Models. Climate Models / Coupled AOGCM • GFDL CM2.0 and CM2.1 Climate Experiments• Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP)

NOMADS Data

“Explaining Climate to Improve Prediction” (ECIP):

1) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project (Saha et al.) Global 1 degree – 1978-2008 Reanalysis. ~230TB (Grib2)

2) Climate of the 20th Century Project (Compo, et al.,)– 1850 to present. ~120TB (Grib1)

3) Climate Prediction Center Reanalysis CPCR – 1944 to present. ~235TB (FY11)

NOAA Reanalysis

Expected availability Winter 2010!

NOAA Reanalysis Community Web Page

Informational

User Survey

Feedback

Registration

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/NOAAReanalysis/

• GFDL, (NCAR/DOE/NASA)– CM.x, Requirements tdb – Models to support impacts user community

• Unified Synthesis Product (USP)– Coupled downscaled (4 TB initially, 3 vars)

• Earth System Grid (ESG) and NOAA’s ESRL– NOMADS collaboration with ESG (D. Williams)– ESMF and NOAA’s ESRL (C. DeLucia)

Climate Models

Coming Soon!

• IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5, 2010/11)– Multi-model approach via ESG in process

• THORPEX Interactive Grand Global – TIGGE International distributed Archive – GIFS Multi Center requirements

• Other TBD Experiments (e.g., YOTC)

Datasets On the Horizon

The conceptual architecture is based on three (3) main components; the Portal, the Catalog Node, and the Data Repository.

1) The Climate Model Portal is the user’s real-time interface to the system, manage requests, download data, receive user input and catalog browsing.

2) the Catalog Node is the heart of the system and concentrates on connecting partners, metadata, search and discovery and secure peer-to-peer connectivity.

3) the Data Repository will be based on advanced real-time access components, and will also use the Data Center IT infrastructure for long term storage and access

NCDC NCEP GFDL…*

Archives… Data Sources….

• Collaborators: DOE (ESG), NASA, EPA, UCAR/NCAR, SDSC, RENCI & others

NOAA Climate Services Portal

National Climate Model Portal NCMP

National Climate Model Portal

= NCMP Components

NCMP

A NOMADS OSSE Capability

Steps for the OSSE Capability:1) Generate a "nature" atmosphere or ocean2) Compute synthetic observations3) Assimilate the synthetic observations4) Assess the impact on the resulting analysis forecast, prediction or assessment.

UW, Madison

• The NCDC NOMADS data sets, which include conventional and non-conventional observations, are archived and accessible through the NOMADS servers. • for NWP OSSE develop and integrate a massive on-line data base with users so there is controlled access to data set selection, location, spatial extent, Variable, quality and time period.

• Climate OSSE needs a new process

NOMADS

NCMP

Climate OSSE

• Climate OSSE’s may not use the same NWP processes (decades of files for integration)

• New approaches need to be developed or leveraged. (OLR’s etc.)

• Climate OSSE’s can establish appropriate confidence in climate change scenarios.

• Perturbed Physics Ensembles (B. Wielicki, et al.,) and a climateprediction.net approach

NCMP

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Experiment (TIGGE)

Objectives• Production of internationally coordinated

advance warnings and forecasts for high impact weather events…– to mitigate loss of life and property, – to contribute to the welfare of all World

Meteorological Organization (WMO) nations, with a particular emphasis on least developed and developing countries.

Toth, Z., J. Desmarais, G. Brunet, Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, R. Hogue, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. Gordon, E. O'Lenic, D. Unger, 2005: The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS). Proceedings of the 1st THORPEX International Science Symposium, December 2004, Montreal, Canada. Available at http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/papers/ toth_naefs_thorpex_montreal.pdf

TIGGE Status• Develop a unified ensemble operational

concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and international exchange of ensemble products:– Identify unified ensemble operations requirements

• standard output fields in standard format and exchange parameters

• ensemble configuration including output intervals and forecast length, membership, approximate spatial resolution

GEO Task co-lead & participant: Rutledge/Toth

Script URL is: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/dods/enshires/archive/ens20040809/...

ensc0_00z_1x1.ascii?pratesfc[3:3][125:125][277:277]

20 model runs,

64 fcst projections (6hrs)

1280 queries

ONE request in ~10 seconds

Multi-Model Ensemble Access

Probability Density Functions (PDF’s)

OPeNDAP constraint expression

Demonstration web page showing the URL queries of the ensembles

OPeNDAP GDS query constrained by time and locationof Paris airport for precipation for each ensemble component.

We loop the previous queries over all forecast times to 384-hrs and graph the result for the probabilities of precipitation for Paris out 16 days.

Combinations of probabilities (temp / precip) can derive products: frost, freezing rain etc.,

NOMADS Ensemble Probabilities on the fly(demo)

Thank you !

Historicalhttp://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov

Real-Time:http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/

Glenn.Rutledge@noaa.gov

Backup

NWP Ensembles Reanalysis Climate Programmatic Servers

NAM Lo-Res NARR CM2.X SRRS LAS

GFS Hi-Res Global R1 CFS NDFD GDS

RUC Probability Tool Global R2 SST RTMA TDS

LAS: Server side analysis, coordinate transformation, and user interface enginesGDS: Server side analysis and format conversions TDS: file aggregations, I/O-SP, http, wget, OGC: WCS, WMS; GeoPortal Tooolkit NetCDF: utilities and subsetting (in TDS)NOMADS Wgrib: direct file level grib subsetting, / grib1-grib2 conversions /SRRS: NOMADS Service Records Retention System the only legally mandated

dataset at NCDCNDFD: National Digital Forecast Database- NOMADS archive sub-settingRTMA: Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis. OPeNDAP and http services via all 3 servers. Very popular.

Most frequently used data & capabilities

NOMADS Capabilities

• Operational Forecasting- • Ensemble Prediction Access: flow-dependant prediction of weather and climate- nowcasting, medium range and seasonal.

• Atmospheric and Oceanic Research- • Scalar and Vector processing and Workstation models• Model output statistics; reanalysis; data assimilation techniques

• Global Climate Change and Advanced Analysis- • Clouds, initial conditions, true coupled simulations.• Long term climate monitoring: in-situ analysis, trends, data homogeneity, extremes, downscaling, reducing uncertainty...

• On-demand Data Mining and Product Generation-convective process

Short and Long Term Goals

NCMP Key Development Strategies

• Maintain and minimize impact on legacy systems• Develop Services and Component based Architecture

(SCBA) using a top-down, bottom-up iterative software development process

• Evolutionary development through pilot projects• Coordinate activities through Communities of

Interest organized by structural “Data Types”– Grids, time-series, moving-sensor multi-dimensional, profiles,

trajectories, geospatial framework, point data and metadata

• DOE Earth System Grid: initial collaborator.

Global Data Assimilation System, Spectral Forecast Model and the Spectral Statistical Interpolation Cycling Analysis System

- NOAA-15/16 AMSU-A/B TOVS 1B Radiances (IEEE)- Analysis Bias Corrected Information / Obs Toss List- SFC U/A, ACRS, Aircft (BUFR)- 6HR fcst guess from previous run (BUFR)- ERSCAT Sat obs / HIRS 14/15, MSU TOVS (IEEE)- Guess prep and and fcst guess output (BUFR)- Analysis ready QC’ed Obs. (prepBUFR)- Profiler, TOVS, Wind Obs. (BUFR)- SFC Analysis Restart Files- SST’s (GRIB) - Radar VAD Winds (BUFR)

NOMADS Data

• NOMADS saves the minimum data necessary to regenerate model output products. • Analysis files are in the models own coordinate system. • Input files are constructed with computer and computational efficiency in mind, and sometimes not in standard coordinate systems.

• Programs to convert these files are available upon request:

• spectral to gaussian• gaussian to lat/lon• sigma to pressure

Data Assimilation: GDAS SSI