centex jpm_060308

21
© 2008 Centex Corporation JP Morgan Basics & Industrials Conference June 3-4, 2008

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Page 1: centex JPM_060308

© 2008 Centex Corporation

JP Morgan Basics & Industrials Conference

June 3-4, 2008

Page 2: centex JPM_060308

2

Forward-looking StatementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements which may be identified by the context of the statement, and generally arise when Centex is discussing its beliefs, estimates or expectations. Such statements include projections, forecasts, and plans and objectives of management for future operations and operating and financial performance, as well as any related assumptions. These statements are not historical facts or guarantees of future performance but instead represent only Centex's belief at the time the statements were made regarding future events, which are subject to significant risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of Centex's control. Actual results and outcomes may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such statements. These risks and uncertainties are described in greater detail in Centex's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008 (including under the captions "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations"), as well as recent reports on Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, which are on file with the SEC and may be obtained free of charge through the web site maintained by the SEC at http://www.sec.gov. The factors discussed in these reports include, but are not limited to, the effects of the current downturn in the homebuilding industry, including reductions in the value of our land portfolio and revisions to our business plans to address changing market conditions; changes in national or regional economic or business conditions, including employment levels and interest rates; competition; customer cancellations; shortages or price changes in raw materials or labor; the effects of recent disruptions in the mortgage financing industry, including tightening of credit and reduction in liquidity; the availability of adequate sources of financing to continue to implement our business strategy, particularly in view of recent downgrades in our credit rating, write downs in asset values and tightening of credit available to the home building industry; our ability to generate cash from sales of assets and other sources that supplement our existing capital resources; and other factors that could affect demand for our homes or mortgage loans, or the profitability of our operations, or our access to financing. All forward-looking statements made in this presentation are made as of the date hereof, and the risk that actual results will differ materially from the expectations expressed in this presentation will increase with the passage of time. Centex makes no commitment, and disclaims any duty, to update or revise any forward-looking statement to reflect future events or changes in Centex's expectations. All forward-looking statements involving financial or operating projections or estimates contained herein were initially provided on May 1, 2008 and have not been updated for this presentation. The risk that actual results will differ materially from expectations expressed in this presentation will increase with the passage of time.

Page 3: centex JPM_060308

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Fiscal year 2008 commitments

Reduce land position

Sell homes

Reduce unsold inventory

Generate cash

Structure for profitability

Page 4: centex JPM_060308

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Reduce land position

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jun-0

3Sep

-03

Dec-0

3Mar

-04Ju

n-04

Sep-0

4Dec

-04

Mar-05

Jun-0

5Sep

-05

Dec-0

5Mar

-06Ju

n-06

Sep-0

6Dec

-06

Mar-07

Jun-0

7Sep

-07

Dec-0

7Mar

-08

Lots Owned Lots Controlled

Total Lots Owned and Controlled

Page 5: centex JPM_060308

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Sell homes

0K

2K

4K

6K

8K

10K

12K

14K

16K

Jun-0

3Sep

-03

Dec-0

3Mar

-04Ju

n-04

Sep-0

4Dec

-04

Mar-05

Jun-0

5Sep

-05

Dec-0

5Mar

-06Ju

n-06

Sep-0

6Dec

-06

Mar-07

Jun-0

7Sep

-07

Dec-0

7Mar

-08

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%Cancellation Ratio Gross Sales Net Sales

Sales and Cancellation rates

Page 6: centex JPM_060308

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Top 10 RankingsCalendar Year

% Change

Horton -41%Centex -17Lennar -39Pulte -26KB Home -19NVR -7Hovnanian -21Beazer -25Ryland -19MDC -36

‘07 vs. '06

1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.

10.

'07 Sales

29,16125,79625,75325,17519,77212,270 11,6679,3738,9826,504

Page 7: centex JPM_060308

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Minimize inventory

2,50

6

3,20

6

4,17

0

2,86

2

2,90

7

3,65

5

4,80

3

3,37

6

3,06

2

4,17

4

6,19

1

5,82

3

5,79

8

6,57

5

6,38

6

4,90

9

4,81

5

4,70

8

4,25

9

1,75

4

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000Ju

n-03

Sep-

03De

c-03

Mar

-04

Jun-

04Se

p-04

Dec-

04M

ar-0

5Ju

n-05

Sep-

05De

c-05

Mar

-06

Jun-

06Se

p-06

Dec-

06M

ar-0

7Ju

n-07

Sep-

07De

c-07

Mar

-08

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Started Not Sold UnitsStarted Not Sold $ as % of Housing Inventory $

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Strong cash flow and debt reduction

Lowered homebuilding debt by almost $800 mil in FY2008• Includes approximately $200 mil of joint venture debt

Repaid $1.35 billion of financial services debt

Generated more than $775 mil of operating cash flow in 4Q

Expect cash balance to exceed $1 billion by June 30, 2008

Total land spend this year expected to be less than half of last year

Page 9: centex JPM_060308

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Restoring profitability is a top priorityQuickly returning to “building to a sold backlog” model• Higher gross margin experienced over selling standing

inventory• Unsold inventory down to 2.9 per neighborhood

Improving core Centex business processes• Expect to see more meaningful gross margin impact in

FY2009

Remain highly focused on overhead• Homebuilding overhead per closing down 12% in

FY2008

Concentrating focus into core markets

Page 10: centex JPM_060308

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Signs of a typical housing market bottomForeclosures rise

Economy slows, recession is likely

Housing starts fall precipitously

New home market corrects much faster than existing

Land prices begin to soften more widely

Homebuilders with liquidity begin to reinvest

Source: Experience in previous cycles

Page 11: centex JPM_060308

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Foreclosure InventoryPercent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

2.2%

20-Year Average

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Mortgage Delinquency Survey

1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201019921987 1988 1989 1990

Page 12: centex JPM_060308

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ARM Reset Schedule

2007J FMAM J J A SOND

2009J FMAM J J A SOND

2008J FMAM J J A SOND

2010J FMAM J J A SOND

2011J FMAM J J A SOND

2012J FMAM J J A SOND

Source: The Norris Group; Credit Suisse

Today

Page 13: centex JPM_060308

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Housing StartsSingle-Family Housing Starts (Millions), Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201019921987 1988 1989 1990

Source: Census Bureau

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0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

New Homes Existing Homes

New and Existing Home InventoriesMillions of Homes

(Left Axis) (Right Axis)

1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201019921987 1988 1989 1990

Source: Census Bureau; National Assocation of Realtors

Page 15: centex JPM_060308

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AffordabilityPercent of Median House Price that a Median Income Family can Afford

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Source: National Association of Realtors

1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201019921987 1988 1989 1990

20-Year Average

Page 16: centex JPM_060308

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3501Q

983Q

981Q

993Q

991Q

003Q

001Q

013Q

011Q

023Q

021Q

033Q

031Q

043Q

041Q

053Q

051Q

063Q

061Q

073Q

071Q

083Q

081Q

093Q

09FY

2010

FY20

12

Centex Fiscal Periods

Inde

xed

Ave

rage

Sel

ling

Pric

e

Actual Results Projected

Priced significantly below existing homes

OFHEO HPI for Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA*

Centex Inland Empire Division

25%

* Data from historic & projected OFHEO housing price index. The HPI is a weighted, repeat sales index that measures average price changes in repeat sales

Page 17: centex JPM_060308

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Aggressively building a better Centex nowRestoring profitability is a top priority

Sales incentives and discounts should diminish

Concentrating focus into core markets• Neighborhood reduction will continue

Expect strong cash flow generation to continue this year• Estimate cash balance, including tax refund, in excess

of $1 billion by end of June quarter

Page 18: centex JPM_060308

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Capital allocation is keyConcentrate investment in markets with greatest long-term profit potential that reward high relative market share

Consolidate divisions where resources can be shared

Exit those markets without strong long-term economic fundamentals or where scale is not meaningful

The resulting re-investment strategy will produce improved margins and returns

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0%

10%

20%

Relative Local Market Share

Rationale for strategic reinvestment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Relative Local Market Share

0.4 0.6 1.210.8 0.4 0.6 1.210.8

Relationship between relative local market share and performance among Centex divisions

Operating Margin ROANA

Regression analysis based on CY02-04 Centex averages

Page 20: centex JPM_060308

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Aggressively building a better Centex for the long term

Focused on asset efficiency and a more flexible land position

Improving core Centex business processes

Increasing relative share strength in markets that will provide best returns

Expect sustainable cost reductions and higher, more consistent future returns

Continue to exceed customer expectations

Page 21: centex JPM_060308

© 2008 Centex Corporation

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