Center for Science in the Earth System

Annual Meeting

June 8, 2005

Briefing: Hydrology and water resources

1. CSES-funded projects

Hydrologic impacts of 20th Century climate change in the western U.S.

Source: Mote et al. (2005)

Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997

Relative Trend in April 1 SWE

(% per year)

1916-1997Effects of Temp

DJF

AV

G T

(C

)

Source: Hamlet et al, 2005

Decadal Climate Variability Doesn’t Explain the Loss of SWE Due to Warming

1947-971925-46

with 1977-95

Relative SWE Trends Due to Temperature Effects Alone (% per year)

1916-97

Source: Hamlet et al, 2005

Effects of Climate Change on Freshwater Inputs to Puget Sound

Elevation (m)

Digital Elevation Model of the Puget Sound Drainage Basin at 1/8th Degree

0

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oct

nov

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r

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Are

a A

vera

ge

Wat

er

(dep

th in

mm

)

precipitation

swe

runoff+baseflow

soil storage

evapotranspiration

0

100

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1Wat

er B

alan

ce f

rom

Ap

ril-

Sep

tem

ber

(dep

th in

mm

) precipitation

snowmelt

soil drainage

streamflow

ET

0

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oct

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Are

a A

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Wat

er

(dep

th in

mm

)

precipitation

swe

runoff+baseflow

soil storage

evapotranspiration

0

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1Wat

er B

alan

ce f

rom

Ap

ril-

Sep

tem

ber

(dep

th in

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) precipitation

snowmelt

soil drainage

streamflow

ET

Current Climate 2040s (+2.5 C)

0.00

50.00

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250.00

oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep

Ba

sin

Av

era

ge

d R

un

off

(m

m)

current climate

composite 2040

Changes in (Runoff + Baseflow) to Puget Sound for Comp2040 Scenario (+ 2.5 C)

Hydrologic Data for Planning Studies

Selected Studies/Models Currently Supported:

ColSim (monthly)

IDWR/SnakeSim (weekly)

NWPCC GENESYS (split month)

USBR Flathead Study (daily)

Salmon River salmon impacts (daily)

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1 62 123 184 245 306 367 428 489 550 611 672 733 794 855 916 977 1038 1099 1160 1221 1282 1343 1404 1465 1526 1587 1648 1709 1770

obs week

adj vic week

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1 62 123 184 245 306 367 428 489 550 611 672 733 794 855 916 977 1038 1099 1160 1221 1282 1343 1404 1465 1526 1587 1648 1709 1770

obs daily

adj vic daily

Reconstructed Naturalized Weekly and Daily Flows at Palisades Dam for 1958-1992

Str

eam

flow

(cf

s)

Weekly Flow 1958-1992

Daily Flow 1958-1962

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/192

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Series1

Series2

New data processing methods were developed to produce daily time step climate change data for USBR Flathead River study

Average July PotET over the Southern Plain Region Current Climate vs. MPI2040 scenario

Current Climate MPI2040

PotET (mm/day)

Trends in July Avg PotET over the Southern Plain Region from 1915-2002

y = -0.0061x + 7.3589

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

1915

1920

1925

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Ref

eren

ce C

rop

Po

tET

(m

m/d

ay)

jul

Linear (jul)

Regional-Scale Decision Support for Small Watershed

Planning

0

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oct

nov

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jan

feb

mar ap

r

may jun jul

aug

sep

Are

a A

ve

rag

e W

ate

r

(de

pth

in m

m)

precipitation

swe

runoff+baseflow

soil storage

evapotranspiration

Example:Hydrologic Summary for WRIA 38Naches River Basin1916-2003

Elevation (m)

0

100

200

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600oc

t

nov

dec

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feb

mar ap

r

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Are

a A

ve

rag

e W

ate

r

(de

pth

in m

m)

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oct

nov

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jan

feb

mar ap

r

may jun jul

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Are

a A

ve

rag

e W

ate

r

(de

pth

in m

m)

+ 2.5 °C

-250

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-50

0

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oct

nov

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mar

apr

may ju

n jul

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sepC

han

ges

in

Lo

ng

Ter

m W

ater

Bal

ance

(m

m o

f w

ater

)

precipitation

snow water equiv.

runoff+baseflow

soil storage

evapotranspiration

CurrentClimate

Changes

Change in Basin Water Balance for the Naches River

2040s

0.00

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oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep

Bas

in A

vera

ged

Ru

no

ff (

mm

)

current climate

composite 2040

Projected Changes in Streamflow Timing for the Naches River

Snake River water and climate studies

Snake River Basin

• Purpose: Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the system through 2060 and develop alternative operating strategies

• Research Goal: Comprehensive simulation model– SnakeSim incorporate current system operations, water rights,

and surface-groundwater interactions – Accomplishments

• Completed simulation model incorporates flexible water rights, groundwater operations, environmental targets, and hydropower production

• SWE-based statistical forecasting approach developed for the determination of flood storage, water rights allocation, and fish flow requirements

– The statistical forecast replaces perfect forecasting approach currently used in Bureau and State (IDWR) planning models

Snake River Basin

• Purpose: Evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on the system through 2060 and develop alternative operating strategies

• Research Goal: Comprehensive optimization model– SIRAS incorporates current system operations to optimize crop

selection and irrigation, groundwater pumping practices, hydropower production, and instream flow target satisfaction

– Accomplishments• Completed optimization model uses an economic objective function

to develop sustainable system-wide long-term operating practices

• Currently under development: statistical correlation of optimal operating practices to SWE, to develop new operating rules for use in SnakeSim

Results: Simulated System ImpactsSnake System Active Storage, 1928-1992 meanClimate Change Scenario Comparison

6000

6500

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Oct

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n

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n

Jun

Jul

Jul

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Aug

Sep

Sep

Base Case

Comp2020

Comp2040

Thou

sand

Acr

e-Fe

et

Instream Flow Delivered, Total, 1981-1990

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v

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base comp2020 comp2040

hc2020 hc2040 mp2020

mp2040

Energy Production (MWhr), BOR, 1981-1990

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base comp2020 comp2040hc2020 hc2040 mp2020mp2040

MW

hr

2. Related projects

PNW CA Energy Transfers

-3

-2

-1

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02N

orm

aliz

ed A

nn

ual

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Pro

du

ctio

n

PNW

CA

Covariation of CA and PNW Hydropower from 1917-2002

Source: Voisin et al, 2005

Predictability of PNW Surplus Hydropower as a Function of ENSO and PDO

Source: Voisin et al, 2005

West-wide experimental hydrologic forecast system

Forecast System Overview

Modeling Framework

Soil MoistureInitial

Condition

SnowpackInitial Condition

Forecast points and sample streamflow forecasts

targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes

monthly hydrographs

Incorporating climate change

information into the long-range planning

process of Seattle Public Utilities

Techniques to Incorporate Climate Change Impacts into Seattle’s Long-Range Water

Supply Planning

• Purpose:– Assess/develop techniques for incorporating

climate change information into the long-range planning process of Seattle Public Utilities (SPU).

– Demonstrate techniques by assessing potential impacts of climate change to the Seattle water supply.

Impacts of Climate Change in Seattle

• Trend fit to all GCM points shows a decrease of ~6 MGD per decade in the system yield.

• Substantial spread in the results from each GCM.

• Incorporating impacts and uncertainty into the planning process

Stream temperature modeling

Single reach stream temperature model (from Sridhar et al, 2004)

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0 10 20 30 405

Kilometers

±

Snohomish sub-basins and model output points

Stream Temperature ModelSimulating continuous flow and temperature data at un-monitored locations for use as habitat parameters in salmon population model.

Flow at Taylor River

Temp at Taylor River

Seasonal streamflow forecasts for utilities

in the Puget Sound basin

Probability of not exceeding given historic flow thresholdsMONTH min 25th 50th 75th max05/2005 0.69 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0006/2005 0.16 0.94 1.00 1.00 1.0007/2005 0.16 0.72 0.90 0.99 1.0008/2005 0.00 0.29 0.59 0.87 1.0009/2005 0.00 0.10 0.26 0.61 1.0010/2005 0.00 0.09 0.30 0.69 0.99Ensemble predicted flows (cfs) at specified percentilesMONTH 1% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 99%05/2005 75 98 101 119 128 144 150 159 171 193 215 247 29006/2005 48 55 58 70 88 102 114 129 150 177 203 225 27107/2005 35 38 44 48 56 61 65 72 77 93 109 129 20608/2005 31 35 36 38 41 44 47 50 52 64 75 95 11509/2005 35 39 39 44 55 63 72 83 92 122 175 187 31310/2005 33 51 80 103 124 168 182 203 234 259 328 345 411

• Graphic and tabular forecasts of streamflows into the water supply reservoirs on the Cedar, S.F. Tolt, Sultan and Green Rivers

Mid-range Forecasts for Utilities in the Puget Sound

• Web based delivery and e-mail distribution of pdf summary

Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan

• Purpose: Examine the robustness of Chinook salmon recovery plans with the potential impacts of future climate change, climate variability, and land use

changes in the Snohomish River Basin. • Goal: Choose the alternatives that most improve

salmon populations.

SUSHI- Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan

Location of the Snohomish River Basin 

2001 Land Use 2025 Current Path Land Use

2025 Restoration Path Land Use

SUSHI- Snohomish Utility Salmon Habitat Improvement Plan

• Accomplishments:– Climate model- 2 GCMs– Hydrologic model- DHSVM

Model Linkages