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A research partnership between
Boise State University,
Idaho National
Laboratory, Idaho
State University and University of Idaho.
Center for Advanced Energy Studies
A Decision Framework for the Deployment of Small Modular Reactors
Geoffrey Black, PhD Department of Economics & Energy Policy Institute, Boise State University [email protected] Presentation to the Platts SMR Conference, Washington DC May 30, 2013
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OUTLINE
v Background v A Changing Global Energy System v Implications for Small Modular Reactors v SMR Market Analysis
v Necessary Conditions v Market Analysis
v Results: v Rankings v Overall Findings v Comparative Findings
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Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has several research divisions, including:
• Center for Advanced Modeling and Simulation
• Institute for Nuclear Energy Science and Technology
• Advanced Test Reactor National Scientific Test Facility
• Center for Space Nuclear Research
A research and education partner of INL is the Center for Advanced Energy Studies (CAES)
• Energy Policy Institute § Ongoing SMR initiative
CAES and the Energy Policy Institute
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There are major changes underway in both
the demand for energy and sources of energy production.
A Changing Global Energy System
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Changes in Energy Demand: • Global energy demand will grow - rising incomes and
population growth in developing economies § World energy consumption will rise between 34 – 53% by
2035 § Most of this increase from non-OECD countries § OECD countries:
• Demand barely rises (growth < 5% to 2035)
U.S. Energy Information Agency, International Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency, World Bank, etc.
A Changing Global Energy System
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Changes in Installed Energy Capacity: • New additions in part to meet growing demand • Much to replace retiring plants.
Sources of New Capacity Additions: • Shift away from oil and coal
§ China and India account for more than 75% of increased coal-fired generation.
• Large increase from renewables and natural gas • Nuclear share 12% of global capacity by 2035
A Changing Global Energy System
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The Majority of Increasing Energy Demand Is from Developing Economies.
Implications for Small Modular Reactors
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Globally, these changes bode well for SMRs.
A Changing Global Energy System
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Projected Increase in Role of SMRs
1. Increasing role of renewables § Largest source of increased global capacity § Load following capability of SMRs blends well with renewables
2. Lower capital costs, reduced construction times § Reduces capital requirements and risk for large and small utilities
3. Scalability § Operational flexibility - Can supply incremental increases in
capacity needs.
Implications for Small Modular Reactors
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3. Modularity Yields Further Cost Advantages § Additional cost savings due to modular design, reduced on-
site construction, standardized supply chain.
4. Improved Design Features § Passive Safety, Enhanced Security § Reduced proliferation risks
Implications for Small Modular Reactors
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Developing Nations Especially Well Suited to SMRs: § Smaller & scalable yields better match for grids with
limited capacity, distributed energy markets. § Large projected increase from renewables mainly from
developing nations - Pairs well with SMRs. § Cogeneration, process heat, opportunities. § Prime energy source for desalination.
§ Currently 16,000 plants worldwide, 66.5 million m3/day (17 million gals)
Implications for Small Modular Reactors
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Market Analysis for SMRs • Geoffrey Black
EPI, CAES, BSU • Meredith Black
International Business, BSU • David Solan
EPI, CAES, BSU • David Shropshire
IAEA
SMR Market Analysis
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Overview: • Constructed Database with Economic, Infrastructure,
Governmental Characteristics for 214 Countries. • Determined 5 Necessary Conditions for Countries to
be Viable SMR Markets. § Economic and Infrastructure
• Used 15 Criteria in 3 Major Categories to Rank Countries for SMR Potential. § Financial & Economic § Technology & Infrastructure § Government Policy
SMR Market Analysis
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Necessary Conditions: • GDP (PPP) > $16 billion
§ Armenia with VVER 440 • Per capita GDP (PPP) > $1,600
§ Bangladesh with Triga, plans for two NPPs • Total electric grid capacity > 1.5 GW (IAEA) • Member of IAEA • Signatory to Non-proliferation treaty (NPT)
SMR Market Analysis
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Ranking Criteria Category 1: Financial & Economic
Category 2: Technology & Infrastructure
Category 3: Government Policy
SMR Market Analysis
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• Category 1: Financial & Economic § GDP (PPP) § Per capita GDP (PPP) § Real GDP growth rate § International Trade as % of GDP § Doing Business Index (World Bank)
• 10 topics, including the ease of starting a business, obtaining construction permits, protecting investors, obtaining credit, enforcing contracts.
§ Average growth rate of energy consumption
SMR Market Analysis
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• Category 2: Technology & Infrastructure § Total Electric Grid Capacity § Percentage of Population in Rural Areas § Access to Energy
• Ranked inversely to underlying data § Oil, Gas, and Coal as a Percent of Total Electricity Capacity § Infrastructure Ranking (World Economic Forum)
• Measures a country’s infrastructure on the basis of its transportation, communications, electrical distribution networks
§ Technology Readiness (World Economic Forum)
SMR Market Analysis
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• Category 3: Government Policy § Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)
• Ranking inverse to underlying data § Energy Imports as a Percent of Energy Use § Per Capita CO2 Emissions
SMR Market Analysis
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Overall Ranking: § For each criterion, countries rank ordered § Assigned score according to quartile (4 to 1) § Top score = 60
SMR Market Analysis
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Of 214 countries: 117 Failed Necessary Conditions • Many Economies Insufficient to Support SMR
Development • Low Income ($1,025 per capita GNI): 34 of 36 failed
– Kenya, Bangladesh passed • Lower Middle Income ($1,026-4,035): 22 of 53 failed
• Many Markets Too Small § Majority of Upper Middle ( ($4,036 - $12,475) and High Income
(over $12,476) passed, some failed due to small grid size or GDP • Ex: Botswana, Grenada, Gabon. Antigua, Dominica,
Montenegro, Namibia, Saint Lucia, Seychelles Overall Rankings on following table:
Results: Necessary Conditions
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Results: Rankings
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• Countries with Highest Potential to Use SMRs: § Sufficient economy and market size § Growing economy § Relatively dispersed population § Reliance on high carbon emission sources of
energy § Policies accommodative to new business
ventures, transparency, low degree of corruption
Results: Overall Findings
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• While Government Policies Considered, Current Political Climate Does Not Affect Ranking § Ex: Austria, Germany, Japan in top quartile, but current
political climate excludes new NPPs. • Consideration of IAEA Designation:
§ Several countries in top 2 quartiles are designated by IAEA as Phase 2; 3 countries are good candidates for SMRs
• Have current nuclear or taking steps to build nuclear § Ex: United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Poland, Jordan, Belarus,
Canada, China, S. Korea
Results: Overall Findings
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U.S. Dept. of Commerce (2011) Only Previous Study • 27 Countries Were Pre-Selected, 6 Criteria Used:
§ Population density, economic growth, energy consumption • These similar to present study
§ CO2 emissions. Electricity imports, nuclear capacity • CO2 not on per-capita basis • Imports and capacity only binary
§ No governmental policy considerations
The Two Studies are Consistent, but Significant Differences Exist Due to Additional Criteria Used.
Results: Comparative Findings
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Countries Designated as IAES Phase 2 and 3 and With Developed NPP Program
Results: Comparative Findings
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Thank You
• For Further Information, Please Contact:
Geoffrey Black, PhD Department of Economics and Energy Policy Institute
Boise State University 1910 University Drive Boise, Idaho 83725
[email protected] (208) 426-1359