CENRAP Modeling Workgroup

Mational RPO Modeling Meeting

May 25-26, Denver CO

Calvin Ku

Missouri DNR

May 25, 2004

CENRAP Modeling Timeline

Jul-Dec 2003

Jan & Jul 02 (99)MM5 & SMOKE

Oct 2004

AQ Model selected & Dev. Model Protocol

Aug-Dec 2004Annual MM5/SMOKE 2002 NEI v. 2 basecaseEmission Improvements

Jan-Apr 2004

Model Evaluation/SelectCMAQ & CAMx

Jun-Aug 2005

2018 Project. basecase Control Strategy Inv.

Jul-Sep 2005

2018 basevase & Emission Sensitivity

Oct-Dec 2005

Regional Control Strategy Runs

Jan-Jun 2006

Final Strategy &Recommendations

Jan-Aug 2005

Model Performance. Evaluation

Preliminary Basecase Control Strategy

Apr-Sep 2004MM5 (v.3.6.3)/basBEmissions SensitivityDiagnostic Analysis

Air Quality Modeling

July-Aug 2005

Emissions SensitivityDiagnostic Analysis

Meteorology & Emissions

Preliminary Modeling Goals

• Evaluate the performance of PM models for the CENRAP region– CMAQ vs CAMx

• Assess uncertainties, sensitivity simulations, and prioritize model improvement activities

• Integrate AER evaluations with UCR analysis• Recommend a best model system for use in

CENRAP’s Regional Haze plan

Preliminary Modeling Domain

• CMAQ and CAMx

• Jan & July 2002 episodes

• National RPO grid Lamber Conformal Conic @ center (-97, 40), Lat (33, 45)

• MM5 165x129x34 • SMOKE 147x111x18• CAMx 101x95x18 • CMAQ 101x95x16

Configuration of Models

• CMB-IV gas phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx• RADM aqueous phase chemistry in CMAQ/CAMx• Horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion• Convective transport treated in CMAQ• Dry deposition• Wet deposition of gases and particles• Particle size distribution• Aerosol thermodynamics• Aerosol dynamics

Problems found in phase 1

• negative deposition velocity (mcip) @ 0 gmt due to VEGFRAC (mm5)

• newly released (2/16/04) MM5 v3.6.3 (mcip patch provided by Donna did not work)

• temp difference ranges -20 to +20 C

• difference in biogenic & mobile emissions

Ammonium Spatial Distribution MM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5 v3.5

PM2.5 Sulfate Spatial Distribution

MM5 v3.6.3 vs MM5 v3.5

Performance Evaluation Data Available for PM Model

Routine Monitors• IMPROVE: 24 hour PM2.5 and component data, one in three

days

• CASTNet: 7-day sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, SO2, and HNO3 (may be problematic)

• AQS: hourly to daily PM10, PM2.5, PM2.5 speciation, O3, NO, NO2, NOy, VOC, SO2

Special Studies• PM Supersites• BRAVO

Some Observations from Preliminary Modeling

• Due to large geo, topo, and meterology variations in CENRAP region different approaches for improving model performance at different Class I areas may be required.

• Emissions sensitivity improves performance but maybe the wrong reason. Also, it may improve the performance at one region but not the other region.

• Zero BC for sulfate significantly improves the normalized bias by eliminating systematic overpredictions at low concentrations.

• The “other” PM25 component is consistently overpredicted– basB applies fugitive dust transport factors and significantly reduce

the “other” PM25• Accurate predictions of sulfate and nitrate, and the associated

ammonium is still key for CENRAP regional haze modeling– Sulfate: chemistry– Nitrate: chemistry, ammonia emissions, and thermodynamics

Next Steps

• Continue sensitivity runs for SOx, VOC (just finish NOx/NH3 sensitivities) and analyze CMAQ/CAMx results due to emissions reductions.

• Start diagnostic analysis as per proposal.• Integrate UCR/Environ modeling analysis.• Model selection based on model runs & diagnostic.• Develop annual MM5 36km/12km for CENRAP• Incorporate emission improvements in 2002 NEI• Develop a RFP for basecase modeling

2002 Basecase DevelopmentDomain & Met Modeling

• CMAQ or CAMx?

• Domain 1 (36km) - MM5 165x129x34 - AQM 147x111x18?• Domain 2 (12km) - MM5 180x240x34? - AQM 162x222x18?

• MM5 Configuration - Moisture - Reisner II - Cumulus - Kain-Fritsch II - PBL - Pleim-Xiu - Radiation - RRTM - Soil Temp - Pleim-Xiu LSM

2002 Basecase DevelopmentEmission Inventory

• A RFP for Compiling Emission Modeling Inventory

• 2002 NEI version 2 - mid July 04• work products from STI inc. ammonia, fire, prescribed

burning, nonroad, mobile, etc.• work products from other RPOs• 2002 CEM data SMOKE format• improved temporal, spatial, & speciation profiles.• additional QA & missing data• SMOKE (IDA) converter