celebrating 10 years - diesel & gas turbine...

Celebrating 10 Years by Brent Haight

Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 2015

iesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide’s Mechanical Drive Order Survey is part two of three surveys designed to provide details on the markets of larger recipro-cating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines used in power generation, marine propulsion and

mechanical drive applications.Data is divided into three reports in order to provide a more

in-depth look at each market segment. The Mechanical Drive Order Survey is devoted to engine orders for mechanical drive applications including pumps, compressors, oil explo-ration machinery, rail and other industrial applications. The Power Generation Order Survey (published in the May issue) examines reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas tur-bines for power generation service. The Marine Propulsion Order Survey (to appear in the July/August issue) examines mechanical drive, auxiliary and diesel-electric marine propul-sions systems.

Procedures

The Mechanical Drive Order Survey includes prime movers beginning at 500 kW (0.5 MW). New orders are broken into reciprocating engine, gas turbine and steam turbine orders.

Fuel types are simplified to reflect only liquid versus gas-eous fuels. Liquid fuel, as reported in this survey, can be any form of diesel oil.

It is important to note that the data in this survey does not represent units shipped, but only the total orders received during calendar-year 2014.

An accompanying table shows the geographic breakdown we provide OEMs, highlighting the specific countries within the reported geographic regions.

Every effort is made to ensure that this survey is as com-plete and comprehensive as possible and would not have the level of detail it contains without the generous contri-butions of the participating companies. An accompanying

D0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Recip Engine Orders

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gas Turbine Orders

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Steam Turbine Orders

Years

Uni

tsU

nits

Uni

ts

Years

Years*Steam turbines were added to the survey in 2009.

*


Mechanical Drive reciprocating engine orDers, January – December 2014

output range (MW)

number of Units

total engine output For

each output range (MW)

engine operating speed ranges Fuel

Wes

tern

eur

ope

east

ern

euro

pe,

russ

ia &

cis

Mid

dle

east

Far e

ast

sout

heas

t asi

a &

aust

ralia

cent

ral a

sia

nort

h af

rica

cent

ral,

Wes

t, ea

st &

sou

th

afric

a

nort

h am

eric

a

cent

ral a

mer

ica

& ca

ribbe

an

sout

h am

eric

a

300 to 600 r/min

720 to 1000 r/min

above 1000 r/min

Diesel Fuel

heavy Fuel

natural gas

0.50 to 1.00 2692 1737 0 0 2692 2523 4 165 705 84 1 247 93 7 0 24 1508 2 211.01 to 2.00 1620 2415 0 155 1465 1083 8 529 116 48 2 217 17 10 348 3 830 1 282.01 to 3.50 354 846 0 119 235 301 6 47 49 32 0 144 2 9 31 7 71 0 93.51 to 5.00 10 42 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 45.01 to 7.50 7 40 0 7 0 0 6 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

7.51 and above 212 2390 49 163 0 23 55 134 0 42 66 2 9 30 1 7 27 13 15

totals 4895 7470 49 454 4392 3930 79 886 870 212 69 610 125 58 380 41 2436 17 77

Mechanical Drive gas tUrbine orDers, January – December 2014

output range (MW)number of

Units

total engine output For each

output range (MW)

Fuel

Wes

tern

eu

rope

east

ern

euro

pe,

russ

ia &

cis

Mid

dle

east

Far e

ast

sout

heas

t asi

a &

aust

ralia

cent

ral a

sia

nort

h af

rica

cent

ral,

Wes

t, ea

st &

sou

th

afric

a

nort

h am

eric

a

cent

ral

amer

ica

& ca

ribbe

an

sout

h am

eric

a

Diesel Fuel

heavy Fuel

natural gas

1.00 to 2.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2.01 to 3.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3.51 to 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5.01 to 7.50 6 34 0 0 6 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7.51 to 10.00 15 120 0 0 15 0 6 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3

10.01 to 15.00 23 282 0 0 23 0 5 3 0 0 0 6 0 3 0 6

15.01 to 20.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

20.01 to 30.00 30 747 2 0 30 0 0 11 0 7 0 10 2 0 0 0

30.01 to 60.00 73 2433 0 0 73 0 36 25 0 2 0 0 0 9 1 0

60.01 to 120.00 20 1778 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0

120.01 to 180.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

180.01 and above 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Totals 167 5394 2 0 167 0 49 46 0 9 3 16 2 32 1 9

Mechanical Drive steaM tUrbine orDers, January – December 2014

output range (MW)

number of Units

total engine output (MW)

steam turbine types

Wes

tern

eur

ope

east

ern

euro

pe,

russ

ia &

cis

Mid

dle

east

Far e

ast

sout

heas

t asi

a

& au

stra

lia

cent

ral a

sia

nort

h af

rica

cent

ral,

Wes

t, ea

st

& so

uth

afric

a

nort

h am

eric

a

cent

ral a

mer

ica

&

carib

bean

sout

h am

eric

a

cond

ensi

ng

non-

cond

ensi

ng

rehe

at

extr

actio

n

indu

ctio

n

0.0 to 1.00 253 77 4 249 0 1 0 5 14 31 30 22 12 0 8 100 26 51.01 to 5.00 34 66 10 24 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 5 0 1 2 15 3 0

5.01 to 10.00 1 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 010.01 to 30.00 2 11 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 030.01 to 60.00 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

60.01 to 120.00 7 424 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0120.01 and

Above 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

totals 299 584 26 273 0 2 0 8 19 33 38 27 12 1 10 117 29 5

2015 MeCHaniCal drive order survey


table identifies those companies that participated in the 2015 survey.

It is important to note, some units re-ported in the 2015 Mechanical Drive Order Survey did not have complete information. In some cases OEMs chose not to provide engine output, fuel type or geography for some of their report-ed orders.

Overview

This marks the 10th year for the Me-chanical Drive Order Survey. Year-over-year comparison shows growth in total orders (all reported drivers types) from 2013 to 2014. This year’s survey cata-logued 5361 orders (2014 data), a 20% growth compared to last year’s report (2013 data), which recorded 4453 units, ending a two-year decline.

The accompanying graphs show the cy-clical nature facing the mechanical drive applications reporting into this survey.

This will prove to be a pivotal year as low

Western EuropeAndorraAustria

BelgiumDenmarkFinlandFrance

GermanyGreeceIceland

LiechtensteinLuxembourg

ItalyIrelandMalta

NetherlandsNorwayPortugal

San MarinoSlovenia

SpainSweden

SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom

Eastern Europe,Russia & CIS

AlbaniaArmenia

AzerbaijanBelarus

Bosnia and HerzegovinaBulgariaCroatia

Czech RepublicEstoniaGeorgiaHungary

KazakhstanKyrgyzstan

LatviaLithuaniaMoldovaPoland

Republic of MacedoniaRomania

RussiaSerbia

Slovac RepublicTajikistan

TurkmenistanUkraine

Uzbekistan

Middle EastBahrainCyprusEgyptIranIraq

IsraelJordanKuwait

LebanonOmanQatar

Saudi ArabiaSyria

TurkeyUnited Arab Emirates

Yemen

Country Information For

Regions/Regional Codes D&GTW Annual Market

Surveys

oil prices, economic challenges in China and political unrest in major oil and gas producing countries continues. Effects of these challenges began to take their toll in the fourth quarter of 2014, with oil and gas majors announcing deep cuts in order to preserve the unprecedented profits they’ve enjoyed for so long. Cut-backs have continued into 2015, but there is good news amongst the doom and gloom headlines that dominate media outlets worldwide.

The demand for rail is resilient, show-ing continued growth in 2014 despite low economic growth in several coun-tries. Analysts expect year-over-year growth of 2.7% until 2020.

The 2014 UNIFE World Rail Market Study shows regional markets with the highest growth rates over the next six years are Latin America, Asia/Pacific and NAFTA (North America Free Trade Act) countries. Growth is driven by major investments in rail projects in Brazil, Colombia, China

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Western Europe

Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS

Middle East

Far East

Southeast Asia & Australia

Central Asia

North Africa

Central, West, East & South Africa

North America

Central America & Caribbean

South America 91

47

2585

53

397

73

161

648

148

280

878

Combined Geographic Totals (All Driver Types) January – December 2014



Far EastChina

Hong KongJapan

MongoliaNorth KoreaSouth Korea

Taiwan

Southeast Asia& AustraliaAustralia

BruneiBurma

CambodiaFiji IslandsIndonesia

KiribatiLaos

MalaysiaMarshall Islands

MicronesiaPalau

Papua New GuineaPhilippines

SamoaSingapore

Solomon IslandsTahitiTonga

ThailandTuvalu

VanuatuVietnam

Central AsiaAfghanistanBangladesh

IndiaMaldives Islands

NepalPakistanSri Lanka

North AfricaAlgeriaLibya

MoroccoTunisia

Central, West, East & South Africa

AngolaBenin

BotswanaBurkina Faso

BurundiCameroonCape Verde

Cen. African Rep.Chad

ComorosCongo

Cote d’IvoireDjibouti

Equatorial GuineaEritrea

EthiopiaGabon



Surveys

and the U.S. The Africa/Middle East region is also expected to maintain its current high market level. Good news for OEMs operating within the rail traction sector.

The long-term outlook for LNG demand remains strong and is expected to increase by 40% through 2025 (to roughly 350 mil-lion T/yr), according to data from GDF Suez. Driving that growth are new markets in Chi-na, India and Southeast Asia and the race is on as myriad countries work to bring export facilities online to supply that demand.

The first LNG export terminal in the U.S., Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass, is cur-rently under construction, with initial LNG cargoes expected by late 2015. Ground has been broken on a second U.S. Gulf Coast terminal, Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG project, with two further projects approved by U.S. regulators for non-free trade exports, and numerous more under review.

Eastern Canada has four projects proposed for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia that would take an estimated 1.5 Tcf/yr of gas, liquefy it and ship it abroad.

continued on page 30

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

North America faces competition from countries including Australia, Indonesia and Qatar for natural gas exports.

The global push to liquefy surplus natural gas will ultimately bode well for prime mover OEMs operating within the oil and gas sector.

Reciprocating engines

The number of reciprocating engines ordered in 2014 total 4895 units, a 21% increase compared to last year’s survey. The majority of orders were divided between the output ranges of 0.50 to 1 MW (2692 units) and 1.01 to 2.00 MW (1620 units).

Engine operating speeds above 1000 r/min accounted for 90% of the recip orders reported in the survey.

Diesel fuel once again dominated the fuel type, accounting for 80% of the re-ported orders.

North America once again claimed

combined Unit orders,all Driver types

Uni

ts

Years



Surveys

GambiaGhanaGuinea

Guinea BissauIvory Coast

KenyaLesothoLiberia

MadagascarMalawi

MaliMauritaniaMauritius

MozambiqueNamibia

NigerNigeriaRwandaSenegal

SeychellesSierra Leone

SomaliaSouth Africa

SudanSwazilandTanzania

TogoUganda

ZaireZambia

Zimbabwe

North AmericaCanadaU.S.A.

Central America & Caribbean

BahamasBermuda

BelizeCosta Rica

CubaDominica

Domin. RepublicEl SalvadorGuatemala

HaitiHondurasJamaicaMexico

NicaraguaPanama

Puerto RicoVirgin IslandsWest Indies

South AmericaArgentina

BoliviaBrazilChile

ColombiaEcuadorGuyana

ParaguayPeru

SurinamUruguay

Venezuela


the top geographic destination for reciprocating engines in 2014 (50%). North America’s shale development and infrastructure remains unrivaled, keeping it the top geographic destina-tion for mechanical drive reciprocating engines for the foreseeable future.

Western Europe was the second geo-graphic destination for recip engines within the mechanical drive segment, receiving 18% of 2014 orders. The Far East was next at 12%.

Gas Turbines

Gas turbine orders decreased 19% compared to the 2014 Mechanical Drive Order Survey. Total orders report-ed in this survey equaled 167.

Units with the output range of 30.01 to 60.00 MW received the most orders (44%), followed by units rated 20.01 to 30.00 MW (18%).

Eastern Europe, Russia and CIS was once again the top geographic location for gas turbines in mechanical drive ap-plications, receiving 29% of the orders. The Middle East claimed the number two geographic location, accounting for 27% of the orders reported, fol-lowed by North America (20%).

Steam Turbines

Steam turbine orders rose 39% com-pared to last year’s surveys. Total steam turbine units ordered in 2014 was 299, falling mostly within the 0.0 to 1.0 MW output range (85%).

Noncondensing steam turbines saw the most demand, accounting for 91% of the total steam turbines ordered.

North America claimed the top geo-graphic location with 39% of the total units ordered. Far East accounted for 13%, followed by the Middle East at 11%.

Reciprocating Engine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey

• Caterpillar Inc.

• GE Power & Water

• Rolls-Royce Power Systems

• Wärtsilä

Steam Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting Orders In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey

• Dresser-Rand

• Fincantieri S.p.A.

• MAN Diesel & Turbo SE

• Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd.

• Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd.

Gas Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey

• Dresser-Rand

• GE Oil & Gas

• GE Power & Water

• MAN Diesel & Turbo

• Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd.

• Siemens AG

• Vericor Power Systems

annual Surveys

On behalf of Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide, thank you to all contributors for your continued participation in this annual survey process. It is our hope that the three surveys com-bined will provide an accurate snapshot of the entire large engine landscape, with fine-tuned detail provided for three market segments through each individual report – power generation, mechanical drive and marine propulsion. Elec-tronic versions of past surveys are available at our website: www.dieselgasturbine.com. Questions, comments and sug-gestions should be directed to [email protected]. A


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