ceeh workshop roskilde, february 6, 2008 the pan european needs-times model sixth framework...
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CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
The The Pan European NEEDS-TIMES Pan European NEEDS-TIMES
modelmodel
SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME [6.1]
[ Sustainable Energy Systems]
Markus BleslFirst CEEH Energy Externality Workshop
Roskilde, Denmark, February 6, 2008
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Objective of NEEDSThe ultimate objective of the NEEDS Integrated Project is to evaluate the full costs and benefits (i.e. direct + external) of energy policies and of future energy systems, both at the level of individual countries and for the enlarged EU as a whole.
From the scientific and technological viewpoint, this entails major advancements in the current state of knowledge in the following main areas of:• Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of energy technologies• Monetary valuation of externalities associated to energy
production, transport, conversion and use• Integration of LCA and externalities information into
policy formulation and scenario building• Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), which allows
examining the robustness of the proposed technological solutions in view of stakeholder preferences.
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Structure of NEEDS SOCIO-ECONOMIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS
+ INITIAL TECHNICAL DATA(RS2a + input from Other Streams)
TECHNOLOGYDATABASE
(ALL STREAMS)
LIFE CYCLEDATA(RS1a)
COHERENT ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY & TRADE PATHWAYS (RS2a)
OTHER INDICATORS, SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE, MCDA (RS2b)
EXTERNALITIES(RS1b, RS1c)
Source: Richard Loulou 3rd Integration Meeting
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Objectives of the Modeling part in NEEDS
To generate via The Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System (TIMES) partial equilibrium technology rich economic models of each Member State and of the EU as a whole (Pan-European model), including the most important emissions, materials, and damage functions used by LCA and ExternE, in their long term development.
To compare scenarios that simulate various policy approaches (setting thresholds for CO2 emission, renewables penetration, etc.) using the key base data received form the other streams to calculate equilibrium quantities and prices.
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
ETSAP
IEA (International Energy Agency)
Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement
Implementing Agreements
Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP)
Technology oriented analysis of energy system modelswith focus on greenhouse gas abatement strategies:
- Analysis of national and multinational strategies- Technology data review- Model development (MARKAL, TIMES)
Operating Agent
www.etsap.org
Outreach
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
FeaturesRegionsElastic demandsVintagingInter-temporalLoad curveEndogeneous technological learningDiscrete capacity expansion
Future Features• NLP (experience curves,
macroeconomic linkage)• Stochastic Programming• MCP (Multi-agent model)
TOOLS• ANSWER,
ABARE• VEDA, GERAD• HALOA, GERAD
Applications (IER)• TIMES-BY• TIMES-GES• TIMES-D• TIMES-EE• TIMES-World
Methodology• Bottom-up Model• Perfect competition• Perfect foresight• Optimisation (LP)
Min/Max Objective functions.t.Equations, ConstraintsDecision Variables <=> SolutionInput parameters
Development• The Integrated MARKAL EFOM
System• By ETSAP• Implementation in GAMS• Model generator
TIMESTIMES
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Basic structure of energy system models
Cost balance
Emissions balance
Net production-
value
Process energy
space heatingArea
Person
Light
Communication
Force
Personal-kilometres
Tonne-kilometresDemand
Coalrefining
Refinery
Power plant andGrid
CHPand
District Heat
Gas pipelines
Industry
Commercial
Domestic
Transport
End energyPrimary Energy
Inlandproduction
Import
Dem
and
values
En
erg
y ca
rrie
r p
rice
s,
Res
ou
rces
ava
ilab
ilit
yprice
cost
Energy flow
Emission
capacities
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
29 region model (EU 25 + Ro, No, CH, IS)Energy system model
SUPPLY: reserves, resources, exploration and conversion Country specific renewable potential and availability (onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, biomass, biogas, hydro)
Electricity: public electricity plants, CHP plants and heating plants
Residential and Commercial: All end use technologies (space heating, water heating, space cooling and others)
Industry: Energy intensive industry (Iron and steel, aluminium copper ammonia and chlorine, cement, glass, lime, pulp and paper), other industries , autoproducer and boilers
Transport: Different transport modes (cars, buses, motorcycles, trucks, passenger trains, freight trains), aviation and navigation
Country specific differences for characterisation of new conversion and end-use technologies Time horizon 2000-2050GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6 /Others pollutants: SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, PM2.5, PM10
Characterization of the Pan-European TIMES model
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
The modelling team of the country models
Finland
Germany, Austria, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Poland +
Bulgaria
Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia
Denmark
Switzerland
UK
Belgium, Luxembourg, France
Slovenia
Italy
Romania
The Netherlands, Ireland
Greece, Malta, Cyprus
Spain, Portugal
Sweden, Norway, Iceland
Member State Model (MSM)
Antti LehtilaFINVTT
Markus BleslDUSTUTT
N.N.ESTTTU
Poul Erik GrohnheitDKRISOE
Socrates KypreosCHPSI
Evasio LavagnoIPOLITO
Denise van RegemorterBKUL
Amit KanudiaFKANLO
Antonio SoriaEJRC
Maria MacchiatoIINFM
Vincenzo CuomoIIMAA-CNR
Anka Mihaela TuhaiROENERO
Koen SmekensNLECN
George GiannakidisGRCRES
Yolanda LechonECIEMAT
Erik AhlgrenSwCHALMERS
Contact personCountryInstitution
Finland
Germany, Austria, Czech R., Hungary, Slovakia, Poland +
Bulgaria
Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia
Denmark
Switzerland
UK
Belgium, Luxembourg, France
Slovenia
Italy
Romania
The Netherlands, Ireland
Greece, Malta, Cyprus
Spain, Portugal
Sweden, Norway, Iceland
Member State Model (MSM)
Antti LehtilaFINVTT
Markus BleslDUSTUTT
N.N.ESTTTU
Poul Erik GrohnheitDKRISOE
Socrates KypreosCHPSI
Evasio LavagnoIPOLITO
Denise van RegemorterBKUL
Amit KanudiaFKANLO
Antonio SoriaEJRC
Maria MacchiatoIINFM
Vincenzo CuomoIIMAA-CNR
Anka Mihaela TuhaiROENERO
Koen SmekensNLECN
George GiannakidisGRCRES
Yolanda LechonECIEMAT
Erik AhlgrenSwCHALMERS
Contact personCountryInstitution
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Electricity structure in the PAN-European Model
...
~ grid cost medium ~ cost for distributionvoltage grid plus according to grid
~ grid cost high H-M transformer ~ grid cost low tariffs of the certain voltage grid voltage grid plus demand group
M-L transformer
~ modelling of pumpstorage process hereonly scematic
INDELC00
COMELC00
TRAELC00
GenerationDecentralized
Generation LOW VOLTAGE
Export
RSDELCINDELC
COMELC
RSDELC00
TRAELC
Import
ELCHIGG
EVTRANS_H-M
Generation
ELCHIG
EVTRANS_H-H
Pump Storage
ELCMED
EVTRANS_M-L
ELCLOW
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
The Pan-European TIMES model- Linking the countries together by
electricity exchange
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Scenario analysis - The Key Policy Cases in the NEEDS Project
1. Specification of the Baseline case (BAU)
2. Post-Kyoto climate policy to stabilize CO2e concentrations at 440 ppmv (CO2)
3. Enhancement of endogenous energy resources, (constraining imports of fossil fuels to foster the use of renewables, efficiency standards and new nuclear)
4. Improve environmental quality by endogenizing externalities related to local air pollution ( i.e., w/o global externalities)
+
SENTECH
Today
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Total CO2 emission in the EU 27
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n i
n [
Mio
t]
Transport
Households,commercial,AGR
Industry
Conversion,production
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Total final energy consumption EU 27
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
To
tal
fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
[P
J]
Others(Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
Ind
ust
ry [
PJ]
Others(Methanol,Hydrogen)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
Total final energy consumption industry EU 27
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Total final energy consumption transport EU27
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Fin
al e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
Tra
nsp
ort
[P
J]
Others(Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Fin
al e
ner
gy
co
nsu
mp
tio
n R
esi
de
nti
al [
PJ]
Others(Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)
Waste
Renewables
Heat
Electricity
Gas
Petroleumproducts
Coal
Total final energy consumption residential EU27
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Net electricity generation in TWh
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Ne
t e
lec
tric
ity
[T
Wh
]Others
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Net electricity generation in TWh
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ne
t e
lec
tric
ity
[T
Wh
]Others
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Net electricity generation capacity in [GW]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Net
ele
ctri
city
cap
acit
y [
GW
]
Others
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Net electricity generation capacity in [GW]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
BA
U
CO
2
CO
2 S
EN
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ne
t el
ect
rici
ty c
apa
city
[G
W]
Others
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Net electricity generation capacity by technologies in [GW]
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
in
[M
W]
Fuel Cell Wave Tidal Hot Dry Rock Steam Turbine Thermal Photovoltaics Offshore Onshore Pump Storage Dam Storage Run of river Fuel Cell Internal Combustion Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Steam Turbine IGCC Steam Turbine Generation 4 Generation 2 and 3 Fuel Cell Internal Combustion Combined Cycle CO2 Seq. Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Steam Turbine Internal Combustion Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Steam Turbine IGCC CO2 Seq. IGCC Steam Turbine CO2 Seq. Steam Turbine IGCC CO2 Seq. IGCC Steam Turbine CO2 Seq. Steam Turbine
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Total primary energy consumption EU
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
2000BAU
2000CO2
2010BAU
2010CO2
2020BAU
2020CO2
2030BAU
2030CO2
2040BAU
2040CO2
2050BAU
2050CO2
Pri
mar
y E
ner
gy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n [
PJ]
Electricityimport
Waste
Otherrenewables
Hydro, wind,photovoltaic
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Lignite
Coal
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Integration of LCA and External costs in the Pan-European TIMES model
Cost balance
Emissions balance
Net production-
value
Process energy
space heating
Area
Person
Light
Communication
Force
Personal-kilometres
Tonne-kilometres
Demand
Coalrefining
Refinery
Power plant andGrid
CHPand
District Heat
Gas pipelines
Industry
Commercial
Domestic
Transport
End energyPrimary Energy
Inlandproduction
Import
Dem
and
values
En
erg
y ca
rrie
r p
rice
s,
Res
ou
rces
ava
ilab
ilit
y
pricecost
Energy flow
Emission
capacities
Capacities
Emission
Emission
Cost per pollutant
CEEH WorkshopRoskilde, February 6, 2008
Thank you for your attention !