cedm annual meeting paul fischbeck epp and sds carnegie mellon university 17 may 2011
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Decision Support Tools for 1) Investigating Trends in the US Vehicle Fleet 2) Nuclear Power Plant Shutdown. CEDM Annual Meeting Paul Fischbeck EPP and SDS Carnegie Mellon University 17 May 2011. Fleet Trends Project Course. Undergraduate, semester-long, capstone course 23 undergrads - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Decision Support Tools for 1) Investigating Trends in the US Vehicle Fleet
2) Nuclear Power Plant Shutdown
CEDM Annual MeetingPaul Fischbeck
EPP and SDSCarnegie Mellon University
17 May 2011
1
Fleet Trends Project Course
Undergraduate, semester-long, capstone course– 23 undergrads
• Social and Decision Sciences (SDS)• Engineering and Public Policy (EPP)
– 2 graduate student managers• Mohd Nor Azman Hassad• Thomas Yu
– 2 faculty• Iris Grossmann• Paul Fischbeck
2
Trade-offs
• Fuel economy and …– Performance– Safety– Practicality– Life cycle costs
• How have these metrics changed over time?– Airbags make lighter more fuel efficient vehicles safer, right?
3
Databases• Ward’s Automotive (1990-2010)
– National new car sales by make and model for each year
• Hedges & Company (2010) – State-level car population by make, model, and model year
• Kelley Blue Book (1990-2010) – List and used car prices– Detailed specifications by make, model, and year
• FARS (Fatality Analysis Reporting System)– Fatalities from automobile crashes– NHTSA
• NHTS/NPTS (National Household Travel Survey) (1995,2001,2009) – DOT Federal Highway Administration
• 5-Star Safety Rating– NHTSA Safety ratings for cars
• Others – US Census, EIA (fuel prices, power mix)
4
Interface to the Integrated Database
Filter Filter specificCountry of assembly United States
Carnegie Mellon University POC: Professor Paul Fischbeck SDS/EPP Project Course (Spring 2011)
Data extracted and merged from Ward's Automotive, Kelley Blue Book, GREET Model Argonne National Labs, and EPA
US Vehicle Fleet Trends
MetricCombined MPG
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Combined MPG - Country of assembly (United States) count = 2721
5By combining metrics and filters, over 1,200 different graphs possible
Life-Cycle Analysiso Inventory Analysis
Considers the individual inputs (energy, materials) and outputs of the product at each stage
Stages: material production, product manufacture, assembly, distribution, use, disposal
Variables to track: energy, emissions, costso Impact Analysis
Combines environmental impacts into one total impact number
o Improvement Analysis Determine how to reduce the environmental impact of
the product
6
GREET Model
• Argonnes National Laboratory• Calculates the life-cycle energy use and
emissions for vehicle productiono MPG (KBB)o Lifetime miles driven (NHTS/NPTS)o Vehicle type- SUV, passenger cars (KBB)o Year (KBB)o Weight (KBB)o Country of assembly (KBB)
• Separate GREET model run for each of the 6,000 make/model/year vehicles in the Ward’s Automotive database
7
8
9
10
11
1990
2005
12
Emissions Trends by List Price
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Emissions Trends by List Price
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Emissions Trends by List Price
15
Emissions Trends by List Price
16
Emission Trends by Vehicle Type
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Emission Trends by Vehicle Type
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Emission Trends by Vehicle Type
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Emission Trends by Vehicle Type
20
Comparison: Weight of Vehicles (Year – 2000)
In 73% of crashes, vehicles with no fatalities weighted moreIn 27% of crashes, vehicles with fatalities weighted more
21
Weight – Safety Tradeoff
Heavier vehicles (safety rating 5) have less probability of fatality compared to lighter vehicles of the same safety rating
At equal weight, 3% benefit to safer vehicle
22
Shutting Down Nuclear Power Plants
• Since Fukushima, there has been discussion of the risks imposed by nuclear power plants
• Question: Given various decision rules, what would be the impact on environmental and economic metrics– Natural risks (earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados– Plant characteristics (individual, age, manufacturer)– Characteristics of surrounding region (population,
political support)• Joint work with David Rode from DAI and Thomas
Yu (EPP Masters 2011)
23
Reasons for Curtailing Operations
24
Earthquake and Nuclear Power Plants
Tornado Alley
Method• All power generation facilities for each NERC region were modeled (total
over 16,000 plants)– Historical capacity factor– Emissions rates– Variable costs (sorted)
• Nuclear plants were turned off based on decision criteria• Lost production made up by increasing the output of plants with extra
capacity in order of marginal cost– NERC forced outage rates for coal and gas
• Average cost of generation calculated (does not include T&D)– Infinitely elastic (no pipeline capacity limits)– For some scenarios, increase demand would send NG prices very high
• Additional NOx, SO2, and CO2 emissions tracked• Additional coal and natural gas consumption determined
– Pipeline capacity would be reached for some regions well before demand is met
25
Interface
26
Filter Filter Value ImpactPolitical Blue 61 Number of Plants
56,667 Number of MW
Paul FischbeckCarnegie Mellon University
MetricGeneration Lost
Economic and Environmental Impact of Nuclear Plant Closures
Regional Impact
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
Total US
National Change (Amount M)
SO2 NOx CoalCO2 NG
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%
Total US
National Change (%)
SO2 NOx CoalCO2 NG$Gen
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FRCC
MRO
NPC
C-N
EN
PCC-
NY
RFC
SERC
-Cen
tral
SERC
-Del
taSE
RC-G
atew
aySE
RC-S
ESE
RC-V
ACA
RSP
PTR
EW
ECC-
NW
PPW
ECC-
CA
Generation Lost (TWh)
27
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Emissions Trends by Country
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Emissions Trends by Country
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Emissions Trends by Country
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Emissions Trends by Country
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Emissions Trends by Country
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
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Trends in Emissions by MPG Category
40