cecocafen to buy or not to buy? and, how? february 23, 2006 daniel grundman, richard hooper, amber...
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CECOCAFENCECOCAFEN
To Buy or Not to Buy? And, How?To Buy or Not to Buy? And, How?
February 23, 2006February 23, 2006Daniel Grundman, Richard Hooper,Daniel Grundman, Richard Hooper,
Amber Kuchar, Kristopher NordstromAmber Kuchar, Kristopher Nordstrom
OverviewOverview
BackgroundBackgroundNicaraguaNicaraguaCoffee IndustryCoffee IndustryCoffee MarketCoffee MarketCECOCAFENCECOCAFENSolcafeSolcafeFinancingFinancingDecisionDecision
BackgroundBackground
January 1999, a dry coffee processing mill January 1999, a dry coffee processing mill comes up for sale (Solcafe)comes up for sale (Solcafe)
Cecocafen wants to become vertically Cecocafen wants to become vertically integrated integrated
Previously no other coffee cooperative Previously no other coffee cooperative had ever owned and operated a millhad ever owned and operated a mill
Volatile market and limited access to Volatile market and limited access to creditcredit
Only two years old Only two years old
HistoryHistory
1937 – 1979: Samoza dictatorship1937 – 1979: Samoza dictatorship
Sandanistas seize control in armed Sandanistas seize control in armed revoltrevolt
9-years of civil conflict9-years of civil conflict
1990 begins democratic era1990 begins democratic era
Aleman elected in 1996Aleman elected in 1996
1998: Hurricane Mitch1998: Hurricane Mitch
EconomyEconomy
Poorest country in Central AmericaPoorest country in Central America
Legacy of civil warLegacy of civil war
Inadequate infrastructureInadequate infrastructure
Corruption and red tapeCorruption and red tape
Coffee is major contributor to GDPCoffee is major contributor to GDP
Healthy forecastHealthy forecast
Coffee Industry OverviewCoffee Industry Overview
OverviewOverview•World coffee production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 107.2 million World coffee production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 107.2 million
bagsbags
•World coffee consumption in 1998/99 is estimated at 106.0 million World coffee consumption in 1998/99 is estimated at 106.0 million bags, up 2 percent from the preliminary 1997/98 levelbags, up 2 percent from the preliminary 1997/98 level
•Largest Exporters: Brazil (23,135,000) Colombia (9,300,000) Largest Exporters: Brazil (23,135,000) Colombia (9,300,000) Indonesia (5,084,000)Indonesia (5,084,000)
•Largest importers: Largest importers: Europe, United States, JapanEurope, United States, Japan
Coffee TypesCoffee Types•ArabicaArabica
•RobustaRobusta
Coffee MarketsCoffee Markets•MovementsMovements
• Organic – Promotes organic farming and processing practicesOrganic – Promotes organic farming and processing practices• Fair Trade – Ensures equitable trading arrangements for disadvantaged Fair Trade – Ensures equitable trading arrangements for disadvantaged
farmers organized into cooperativesfarmers organized into cooperatives
•Specialty Coffee - (Starbucks)Specialty Coffee - (Starbucks)
Coffee Producing NationsCoffee Producing Nations
('000s)
Country Arabica/Robusta 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999Angola Robusta 62 71 64 85 55Bolivia Arabica 151 133 153 150 184Brazil Arabica/Robusta 15,784 27,664 22,756 34,547 32,353Cameroon Robusta/Arabica 663 1,432 889 1,334 1,218Colombia Arabica 12,878 10,876 12,211 11,088 9,336Costa Rica Arabica 2,684 2,126 2,500 2,350 2,465Dominican Republic Arabica 886 519 941 422 694Ethiopia Arabica 2,860 3,270 2,916 2,745 3,505Mexico Arabica 5,527 5,324 5,045 5,051 6,442Nicaragua Robusta 985 793 1,084 1,073 1,384Venezuela Arabica 1,364 1,200 986 991 717
Source: International Coffee Organization
World Coffee Production Statistics
Exportation in 60Kg bags from major producing countries between 1995-1999
Coffee PricingCoffee Pricing
Long run coffee pricesLong run coffee prices
•Short term periods of high volatility and/or high pricesShort term periods of high volatility and/or high prices
•Gradual decline in recent historyGradual decline in recent historyWorld Coffee Prices - (1/94 - 2/99)
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100.00
150.00
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350.00
CLOSE
Coffee Industry: Processing Coffee Industry: Processing & Supply Chain& Supply Chain
ProducersProducers
Farm workersFarm workers
Credit institutions Credit institutions that lend to that lend to producersproducers
Suppliers to Suppliers to producersproducers
ProcessorsProcessors
ExportersExporters
Prevailing Trends in the Prevailing Trends in the Coffee MarketCoffee Market
PricesPrices•Coffee spot prices are a function of world supplyCoffee spot prices are a function of world supply
•World pricing sensitive to supply/demand fluctuations in World pricing sensitive to supply/demand fluctuations in BrazilBrazil
Fair Trade MovementFair Trade Movement•Organizations working to ensure fair wages, cooperative Organizations working to ensure fair wages, cooperative
workplaces, consumer education, environmental workplaces, consumer education, environmental sustainability, cultural identity and public accountabilitysustainability, cultural identity and public accountability
Specialty Coffee MarketSpecialty Coffee Market•Organic, shade grown, etc.Organic, shade grown, etc.
•Fastest growing sector of overall marketFastest growing sector of overall market
World Bank StrategyWorld Bank Strategy•Promoting development in SE Asia through coffee Promoting development in SE Asia through coffee
productionproduction
Coffee Market in Coffee Market in NicaraguaNicaragua
Fragmented marketFragmented market• 80% of farmers have less that 5 manzanas each (1 80% of farmers have less that 5 manzanas each (1
Manzana = .7 hectares)Manzana = .7 hectares)
Land titlingLand titling• Disincentive to investDisincentive to invest• Barrier to extension of creditBarrier to extension of credit• Lack of collateral Lack of collateral
Farmer organizationsFarmer organizationsBanksBanks
• High transaction costsHigh transaction costs• Agricultural sector unable to benefit from formal banking Agricultural sector unable to benefit from formal banking
mechanismsmechanisms
Coffee Market in Nicaragua: Coffee Market in Nicaragua: Key StakeholdersKey Stakeholders
Social and Economic impactSocial and Economic impact•Government/Banks Government/Banks Affects other economic sectors Affects other economic sectors
•Wages and unemploymentWages and unemployment
•Rural economyRural economy
StakeholdersStakeholders•Government of NicaraguaGovernment of Nicaragua
•FarmersFarmers
•LaborLabor
•Global Trading PartnersGlobal Trading Partners
•NGOsNGOs
•Development AgenciesDevelopment Agencies
CECOCAFENCECOCAFEN
Established 1997 to export Nicaraguan Established 1997 to export Nicaraguan coffee to Europe’s specialty markets. coffee to Europe’s specialty markets.
Represents 1200 producersRepresents 1200 producers
Promotes sustainable development and Promotes sustainable development and social programssocial programs
Cuts out traditional middleman and Cuts out traditional middleman and increases the money going back to the increases the money going back to the producerproducer
Focus on increasing quality of coffee Focus on increasing quality of coffee
CECOCAFENCECOCAFEN
Quantity in qq Sold Prices
Harvest Total Organic Conventional Cecocafen Average for Nicaragua 1997-1998 6,776.50 26.50 6,750.00 $165.64 $151.22
1998-1999 12,698.12 413.06 12,285.06 $129.02 $107.98
Sales and ProductionSales and Production
Cecocafen/Nicaragua Cecocafen/Nicaragua OptionsOptions
1.1.Leverage comparative advantage of Leverage comparative advantage of coffee industry and focus on coffee industry and focus on enhancing coffee quality and reducing enhancing coffee quality and reducing costs in order to ensure sustainabilitycosts in order to ensure sustainability
2.2.Pursue a diversification strategy into Pursue a diversification strategy into other long term products in order to other long term products in order to minimize risk to the economyminimize risk to the economy
SOLCAFESOLCAFE
Solcafe is a wet processing millCoffee is prepared and shippedWould act as an information center
accessing quality and sales availabilityHas excess capacity and can easily
expand Critical to achieving the vision of
Cecocafen
FinancingFinancing
Options Options •National: National: Most of the larger banks have some
coffee lending in their portfolio
•Export Sector: Export Sector: They finance about 88% of the short-term debt for coffee producers in Nicaragua
•International Banks: International Banks: Rabobank, Oikocredit and Triodos are anthroposophical banks with strong social missions
•Micro-Credit/NGO/Other:Micro-Credit/NGO/Other: Primarily finance ancillary projects
FinancingFinancing
OikocreditOikocreditOperates like a development "bank", Operates like a development "bank",
providing financing to disadvantaged people, providing financing to disadvantaged people, people who would normally not get a loan from people who would normally not get a loan from a commercial bank.a commercial bank.
Loan duration: 2-10 years Loan duration: 2-10 years
Flexible interest rates: based on market rate, Flexible interest rates: based on market rate, country and project risks, development country and project risks, development relevancerelevance
Dividend: Modest, usually 2%Dividend: Modest, usually 2%
RESULTSRESULTS
May 1999, Cecocafen bought Solcafe with a May 1999, Cecocafen bought Solcafe with a loan from Oikocreditloan from Oikocredit
Coffee prices crash in December 2001 at Coffee prices crash in December 2001 at 41.5 cents per pound41.5 cents per pound
•Coffee prices at record lowsCoffee prices at record lows
•Global over-production leads to accumulation of Global over-production leads to accumulation of inventoriesinventories
•Increasing competition on global scaleIncreasing competition on global scale
Due to Fair Trade and flexible interest rates Due to Fair Trade and flexible interest rates Ceocafen and Solcafe survived the crashCeocafen and Solcafe survived the crash