cebu air, inc. st quarter 2018 results of operations · 2018-05-28 · equity 1.69 1.73x new ppe...

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Page 1: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

cebupacificair.com

Cebu Air, Inc.1st Quarter 2018Results of Operations

Page 2: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Disclaimer

2

The information provided in this presentation is provided only for your reference. Such information has not been independently verified and, as such, is not guaranteed to be accurate nor complete. Neither Cebu Air, Inc. (“CEB” or the “Company”) nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, directors, employees, agents or advisers makes expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and neither of them shall accept any responsibility or liability (including any third party liability) for any loss or damage, whether or not arising from any error or omission in compiling such information or as a result of any party’s reliance or use of such information. The information and opinions in this presentation are subject to change without notice.

EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income are not measures of performance under the Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (“PFRS”), and should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income as an indicator of CEB’s operating performance or to cash flow from operating, investing and financing activities as a measure of liquidity, or any other measures of performance under PFRS. Because there are various EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income calculation methods,CEB’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.

This presentation also contains certain “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements include words or phrases such as CEB or its management “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “foresees”, or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe CEB’s objectives, plans or goals are also forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations or beliefs as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. There is no assurance that expectedevents will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company and its management’s assumptions are correct.

17 May 2018

Page 3: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Business Updates

Page 4: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

CEB 1st Quarter 2018 highlights

17 May 2018 4

4.9Mn Pax1.3% up

5.2B RPK4.3% down

51.1Mn kg Cargo 26.5% up

108 Routes63 Aircraft

PHP18.26Bn Rev8.3% up

82.6% SLF1.2ppts down

6.4Bn ASK6.9% down

13.1 hrs/day*

6.4 turns

63 Destinations70% OTP

P2.264Bn EBIT12.4% margin

*Airbus fleet

Page 5: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Market leader in the Philippine domestic market

Cebu Air, 53%

Philippine Airlines,

29%

AirAsiaPH, 17%

1Q2018 market share 3.6 million passengers, 84.2% SLF

Highest market share domestically

4.2 million seat capacity, up 4.8% yoy

Market share greater than capacity share

Most extensive network with 37 destinations, 71 routes, and c. 2000 weekly flights

Launched Manila-Basco, Batanes daily flight starting March 25, 2018

Strategies to strengthen market leadership:

Use of bigger aircraft to grow in Manila despite airport congestion

Increase presence in other hubs and connect secondary cities

With the Boracay island closure to tourists, offer alternative island destinations such as Palawan, Bohol, and Siargao

17 May 2018 5

Page 6: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Siargao island: CEB as a catalyst for development

A well known island paradise especially for surfers and beach lovers

Catchment area of 105,430 people

Previous option: fly to Cebu to Surigao (55 min) and take a bus for another 2 hours from Surigao to Siargao

Now, direct flights to Siargao from Cebu (1h) or Manila (2h 20 min)

153 180 223 242 306

367

619

480

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Surigao del Norte Tourist Arrivals (in ‘000)

18% CAGR18%

CAGR

Source: PH Department of Tourism statistics

9 10 11 16 28

35 44

56

96

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CEB’s Siargao Passengers (in ‘000)

35% CAGR35%

CAGR

17 May 2018 6

Page 7: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Growing international market

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CEB passenger growth for MNL-KIX and MNL-NRT

Manila-OsakaManila-Narita

43% CAGR43%

CAGR

45% CAGR45%

CAGR

Cebu Air, 19%

Philippine Airlines,

28%AirAsia PH, 6%

Foreign, 47%

2017 market share 1.3 million passengers, up 4.1% yoy, 78.6% SLF

• Short haul: 1.2M, up 10.2% yoy, 78.6% SLF

• Long haul (Sydney and Dubai): 112k, up 5.2% yoy, 78.8% SLF

26 destinations, 37 routes , c.500 weekly flights

High growth: Nagoya, Narita, Bali, Incheon, Xiamen and Bangkok

May 2018 – launched sales office in Tokyo, Japan

International growth strategy:

Connecting secondary PH cities to international destinations

Opening of organic sales offices in key markets such as Korea and Japan to increase presence and reach

17 May 2018 7

Page 8: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Sydney: CEB grew demand

89 91 107

97 102 137

118

165

186

311

408

2013/14 2014/15 FY2017

Sydney Passengers (in ‘000)

Cebu Air

Philippine Airlines

Qantas

Launched Manila-Sydney on Sep 2014

Grew the market by 67% a year after launch

CEB as market leader with 38% market share

In 2017, CEB still the market leader with 40% market share

Source: Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport, and Regional Economics

17 May 2018 8

Page 9: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Financial Results

Page 10: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Income Statement Highlights1Q18 1Q17 % Change

Total Revenue (Php M) 18,261 16,864 8.3%

Passenger Revenue 13,676 12,277 11.4%

Ancillary Revenue 3,306 3,573 -7.5%

Cargo Revenue 1,279 1,015 26.0%

Average Yields 3,483 3,293 5.8%

Average fare/passenger 2,805 2,551 10.0%

Ancillary/passenger 678 742 -8.7%

Cargo yield / kg 25.0 25.1 -0.4%

Revenue/ASK (RASK) 2.86 2.46 16.3%

Cost/ASK (CASK) 2.50 2.08 20.2%

CASK ex-fuel 1.59 1.37 16.2%Income (PHP million)

EBITDAR 5,816 5,623 3.4%

EBIT 2,264 2,562 -11.6%

Pre-tax Core Income 2,015 2,332 -13.6%

Net Income 1,437 1,283 12.0%Margins

EBITDAR Margin 31.8% 33.3% -1.5ppts

EBIT Margin 12.4% 15.2% -2.8ppts

Pre-tax Core Margin 11.0% 13.8% -2.8ppts

Net Margin 7.9% 7.6% 0.3ppts

1source: Published MOPS and PDS rates

Lower ancillaries with less long haul flights, due to lower baggage and onboard meals sold.

More A330 flights in short haul network increased cargo

Higher Jet fuel cost, lower ASK, and peso depreciation drove fuel CASK up 27.8% yoy.

Six A320 Sale and Leasebacks in 2017 increased AC Lease 20%, and maintenance provision for return cost 16% yoy.

1Q18 1Q17 YoY

ASK (M) 6,389 6,864 -6.9%

Jet/bbl1 79.99 64.44 24.1%

P/US$1 51.49 50.00 3.0%

CASK-fuel

0.92 0.72 27.8%

17 May 2018 10

Page 11: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

In Millions of PHPMar. 31,

2018Dec. 31,

20172018 vs 2017

Cash 18,251 15,614 2,638 16.9%

Other current assets 6,967 6,078 890 14.6%Property, plant & equipment 83,665 81,279 2,386 2.9%

Goodwill and others 8,166 6,106 2,059 33.7%

TOTAL ASSETS 117,049 109,077 7,973 7.3%

Current Debt 6,952 5,969 983 16.5%

Noncurrent Debt 36,731 35,013 1,718 4.9%

Other liabilities 32,144 28,309 3,835 13.5%

TOTAL LIABILITIES 75,827 69,291 6,536 9.4%

EQUITY 41,222 39,786 1,437 3.6%

Cash to Sales Ratio 26.29% 22.95%Current Ratio 0.75 0.74xNet debt1 to Equity 0.62 0.64xAdjusted Net debt2 to Equity 1.69 1.73x

New PPE and Debt:

• 1 new A321CEO

• 1 new ATR 72-600

Other assets include advance payment to suppliers

Loans breakdown Php vs USD:

1Q18 FY17USDM 568 549PHPM 14,080 13,546

NOTE:1Net debt is total debt less cash and cash equivalents2Adjusted net debt is net debt plus capitalized lease and ARO liability based on the present value of future operating lease commitments.

Balance Sheet Highlights

17 May 2018 11

Page 12: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

in Millions of PHP 1Q18

CASHFLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Income after noncash adjustments 4,291 Net changes in working capital 2,716 Interest and taxes paid – net (330)Net cash provided by operating activities 6,678

CASHFLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES

Acquisition of PPE (4,110)

Dividends from JVs 42

Other non-current assets (2,015)Net cash used in investing activities (6,082)

CASHFLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES

Proceeds from borrowings 3,280

Repayment of debt (1,776)Net cash used in financing activities 1,504

Net foreign exchange difference 539 NET INCREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 2,638 CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS, beginning 15,614 CASH AND EQUIVALENTS, END 18,251

Investing activities

Additions to PPE: Pre-delivery payments and final payments for 1 A321 CEO and 1 ATR 72-600

Other non-current assets: Advance payment to MRO provider of A330 fleet

Php3.3B Loan availment: for 2 AC deliveries in 1Q18

Cash Flow Highlights

17 May 2018 12

Page 13: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

Outlook

Page 14: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

As of May 9, 2018, Jet Kero closed at $88.97/bbl

Hedge ratio:

• 35% for 2018, 22% for 2019 and 7% for 2020

Using collars more than swaps; layering

Matching Forward booking levels:

• 5-mo booking at 26.3% of seats, up 7.3%

• 5-mo forward capacity up 11.0%

Jet Kero Close Average YTD

Mar 31, ’18 $79.00/bbl $79.99/bbl

Dec 31, ’17 $75.45/bbl $65.31/bbl

Mar 31, ’17 $61.92/bbl $64.44/bbl

Fuel and Forward Bookings

17 May 2018 14

Data source: Bloomberg

50

60

70

80

90

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

De

c-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Jet Kero Spot Price Index

Page 15: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

As of May 9, 2018, USDPHP closed at P52.02/$

Cash management solution

Short-term/tactical hedging

Shift to local aircraft financing

PHPUSD Close Average YTD

Mar 31, ’18 P52.16/$ P51.49/$

Dec 31, ’17 P49.93/$ P50.40/$

Mar 31, ’17 P50.16/$ P50.00/$

Forex and Interest

Rates 1Q18 1Q17 YOY

3M-Libor 1.925 1.071 79.8%

3M-PDSTR2 2.812 2.208 27.3%

Diff 0.887 1.374 -22.0%

Interest exp. (Php) 363.1M 308.1M 17.9%

Loans, end (Php) 43,683 42,709 2.3%

17 May 2018 15

47

49

51

53

55

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Ma

r-17

Ap

r-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

De

c-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Ma

r-18

Ap

r-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

PHPUSD Closing Rates

Data source: Bloomberg

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2.50

Jan-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-17

Apr-1

7

May-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-17

Aug

-17

Sep

-17

Oct-1

7

Nov-1

7

Dec-17

Jan-1

8

Feb

-18

Mar-18

Apr-1

8

May-1

8

3M

Lib

or

Interest Rates

3M Libor 3M PDSTR2

3M P

DST

R2

Page 16: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

CEB growth strategy: Going Bigger, Farther, Smarter

Go Bigger – upsize strategy with A330s & A321s for a conservative but flexible fleet expansion plan

• Current fleet of 65: 4 A321CEO, 36 A320, 8 A330, 8 ATR 72-500, and 9 ATR 72-600

• 2018: 3 more A321CEOs, 1 A321 NEO, and 3 more ATR 72-600 deliveries; 8 ATR 72-500 exits

• By 2022: 7 A321CEO, 32 A321 NEO, 18 A320, 8 A330, 16 ATR 72-600

Go Farther – both international and domestic

• Organic sales office in key international markets

• More domestic island destinations using ATRs ex Manila

Get Smarter – effective network management, fleet planning and financing

• Better forecasting and yield management

• Sale and leaseback, refinancing on mid-life A320; new financing for A321NEOS

37 36 29 25 21 18

8 16 24 32 39 8 8 8 8 8 8

16 12 13 13

14 16

61 64 66 7075

81

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

ATR

A330

A321

A319/A320

Fleet expansion plan

17 May 2018 16

Page 17: Cebu Air, Inc. st Quarter 2018 Results of Operations · 2018-05-28 · Equity 1.69 1.73x New PPE and Debt: • 1 new A321CEO • 1 new ATR 72-600 Other assets include advance payment

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