cebu air, inc. - cebu pacific · atr 600 3 2020-2022 new order: a330neo 16 2021-2024 a320neo 5...
TRANSCRIPT
Cebu Air, Inc.2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2019
Results of Operations
August 14, 2019
Business Updates
14 Aug 2019
The information provided in this presentation is provided only for your reference. Such information has not been independently verified and, as such, is not guaranteed to be accurate nor complete. Neither Cebu Air, Inc. (“CEB” or the “Company”) nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, directors, employees, agents or advisers makes expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and neither of them shall accept any responsibility or liability (including any third party liability) for any loss or damage, whether or not arising from any error or omission in compiling such information or as a result of any party’s reliance or use of such information. The information and opinions in this presentation are subject to change without notice.
EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income are not measures of performance under the Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (“PFRS”), and should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income as an indicator of CEB’s operating performance or to cash flow from operating, investing and financing activities as a measure of liquidity, or any other measures of performance under PFRS. Because there are various EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income calculation methods,CEB’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
This presentation also contains certain “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements include words or phrases such as CEB or its management “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “foresees”, or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe CEB’s objectives, plans or goals are also forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations or beliefs as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. There is no assurance that expectedevents will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company and its management’s assumptions are correct.
Disclaimer
3
2Q 2019 Snapshot
Low OTP, Flight
Cancellations
April May
Reopening of Boracay
June
New Aircraft Order
2Q2019
Overall, POSITIVE RESULTS
14 Aug 2019 4
• Revenue: P23.53B (+ 20.2% YOY)
• Pax yield: P3,735 ( +12.5% YOY)
• Cargo Vol: 49.6M ( +7.3% YOY)
• RASK: P3.19 (+6.1% YOY)
• Fleet: 72 (vs 67 2Q2018)
• Pax: 5.92M (+8.2% YOY)
• SLF: 90.1% (+0.3% pts YOY)
• RPK: 6.50B (+12.3% YOY)
• MOPS Price: $79.58/bbl (-8.9% YOY)
• PHPUSD Rate: P52.03 (-0.8% YOY)
• EBITDAR: P9.18B (+48.6% YOY)
• PT Core Income: P4.41B (+117.6%)
• Net income: P3.76B (+100.7%)
* Implemented PFSR16 for 2019
2Q 2019 Snapshot
Growth Revenue
Macroeconomic Drivers Profitability*
14 Aug 2019 5
Domestic Market
8,110
95,567
2Q2018 2Q2019
4.2M passengers, up 5.2% YOY
4.6M seats, up 4.0% YOY
Seat Load Factor of 92%
Network:• 37 destinations
• 67 routes
• 2,155 weekly flights
Market share of 52% = CPI of 1.04
14 Aug 2019
CRK Capacity Growth over 10x
6
International Market
1.68M passengers, up 16.5% YOY
Seat Load Factor of 86%
1.96M seats, up 17.8% YOY
Network:• 26 destinations
• 39 routes
• 563 weekly flights
North Asean markets fuel growth
Manila to Osaka and Shanghai upgrade from A320 to A330
Cebu - Shanghai launch 6x/week
Clark - Narita launch 4x/week
• Short haul: 1.5M, up 16.2% yoy, SLF 85.6%
• Long haul: 149K, up 19.6% yoy, SLF 87.5%
14 Aug 2019 7
Cargo Update
2Q2019: 49.6M kg, up 7.3%
1H2019: 101.4M kg, up 4.1%
Cargo yield: P28/kg in 2Q2019
*Per CAB statistics
2,653
2,836
1H2018 1H2019
Cargo Revenues (in millions)
7%
97
101
1H2018 1H2019
Cargo Volume (kg in millions)
4%
ATR Freighters
• 1st ATR 72-500 in the world with Large Cargo Door (LCD) delivered
• 2nd ATR 72-500 conversion in process
• Cargo Loading System can carry up to 8 tons of cargo per uplift
Operation commencement:
Sept. 4, 2019
14 Aug 2019
Domestic Share: 47% in 1Q2019*
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Financial Results
1source: Published MOPS and PDS rates
Income Statement Highlights
2Q19 % YOY 1H19 % YOY
Total Revenue (Php M) 23,526 20.2% 44,703 18.2%
Passenger 17,673 20.8% 33,352 17.8%
Ancillary 4,459 24.8% 8,515 23.8%
Cargo 1,394 1.5% 2,836 6.9%
Average Yields
Average fare/pax 2,983 11.8% 2,974 8.8%
Ancillary/pax 753 15.5% 759 14.3%
Cargo yield / kg 28.08 -5.5% 27.97 2.7%
Revenue/ASK (RASK) 3.19 6.1% 3.09 5.6%
Cost/ASK (CASK) 2.50 -4.3% 2.48 -3.3%
CASK ex-fuel 1.61 -0.5% 1.61 0.5%
Income (PHP million)
EBITDAR 9,183 48.2% 17,229 43.4%
EBIT 5,027 100.2% 8,931 87.1%
Pre-tax Core Income 4,413 117.6% 7,706 90.6%
Net Income 3,758 100.7% 7,139 115.7%
Margins
EBITDAR Margin 39.0% 23.3% 38.5% 21.4%
EBIT Margin 21.4% 66.6% 20.0% 58.3%
Pre-tax Core Margin 18.8% 81.1% 17.2% 61.3%
Net Margin 16.0% 67.0% 16.0% 82.6%
2Q19 %YOY 1H19 %YOY
ASK (M) 7,383 13.3% 14,447 11.9%
Jet $/bbl 79.58 -8.9% 78.04 -6.7%
P/US$ 52.03 -0.8% 52.20 0.4%
Net income more than doubled in 1H19 amid yield increases, strong passenger growth and
successful cost management
14 Aug 2019
1H19 w/o PFRS
PFRS effect
%Δ
EBITDA 13,340 2,798 21.0%
EBIT 8,791 140 1.6%
Net Income 7,316 -178 -2.4%
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Balance Sheet Highlights
+ 2 A321NEOs (less 1 A320CEO)
PFRS 16 effect for 22 leased AC:
ROU asset P33,069Lease Liability P33,218Equity P -149
Dividends paid July 10, 2019
Gearing ratio of 1.33x equity enables us to leverage further
14 Aug 2019
In Millions of PHP 30-Jun-19 Dec. 31, 20182019 vs end
2018
Cash and cash equiv. 23,406 16,893 6,513Other current assets 7,907 9,052 -1,145Property & equipment 91,129 95,100 -3,971Right of Use Asset 33,069 - 33,069Others 7,112 8,347 -1,235TOTAL ASSETS 162,623 129,391 33,232
Current Debt 5,986 6,615 -629Noncurrent Debt 41,086 47,182 -6,096Current Lease 5,447 - 5,447Noncurrent Lease 27,771 - 27,771Dividends Payable 4,206 - 4,206Other liabilities 35,213 35,492 -279TOTAL LIABILITIES 119,709 89,289 30,420EQUITY 42,914 40,102 2,812
Cash to Sales Ratio 26.7% 23.0%Current Ratio 0.72 0.75Net debt to Equity* 1.33 0.92
*Net debt to Equity w/o PFRS 16 effect is 0.68
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Cash Flow Highlights
1.45 M shares bought back since January 2, 2019
14 Aug 2019
in Millions of PHP 1H19CASHFLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIESIncome after noncash adjustments 16,794Net changes in working capital 67Interest and taxes paid – net -1,332Net cash provided by operating activities 15,529CASHFLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIESAcquisition of PPE -1,735Proceeds from disposal 1,060Other noncurrent asset 712Net cash provided by investing activities 37CASHFLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIESRepayment of debt -5,966Payment of lease liability -2,590Treasury Stocks -121Net cash used in financing activities -8,677Net foreign exchange difference -376NET INCREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 6,513CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS, beginning 16,893CASH AND EQUIVALENTS, END 23,406
Free cash flow positive at P13.0B
2 A321NEOs and 1 spare engine delivered less 1 A320CEO sold
12
2019 and Beyond
31% 24%10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
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2019 2018
Mill
ion
s
Bookings Capacity % Sold
3M Forward booking as of July 31 positive:
31% of our seats sold for the next 3 months, ahead of 24% same period LY
Fuel: with layered hedges to match bookings:
Jet fuel at $73.85/bbl* vs. $78.33/bbl end June19
Ongoing hedge ratios:
45% for balance 2019
20% - 25% for 2020-2021
CEB layers these hedges using swaps and collars with Jet and Brent as underlying
Forex: Natural hedges reduce exposure:
USD at Php 51.89* vs. Php 51.24 end June19
With our natural cash flow hedges and short term currency forwards, our monthly USD exposure is now c. 85% covered for balance of the year
Rates: Now at a downtrend:
3Mo Libor at 2.176%*, down c. 30bps from 2Q19
3Mo BVAL at 3.375%*, down c. 200bps from 2Q19
Php debt at 100% float, and USD debt at 85% float
*date of ref : August 9, 2019
Hong Kong under close monitoring:
At about 8% of our revenues and average of 4,000 pax flown daily, Hong Kong is indeed one of our major destinations
Current events start to manifest, with recent forwards booking trends for Nov-Dec. down mid 30% vs mid 40% last year:
Macroeconomic and Commercial OutlookMacroeconomic and Commercial Outlook
1414 Aug 2019
New Aircraft Order
• A330 : 460 seats
• A320NEO: 194 seats
• A321XLR: 240 seats
Accelerate Replacement of Existing A320 and A330 CEOs for:
More fuel-efficient
More eco-friendly
16 A330-900 NEO
10 A321 XLR (XtraLong Range)
5 A320 NEO
14 Aug 2019
Higher seat density
15
Delivery
Number of Aircraft to be
DeliveredAircraft Delivery
Schedule
Existing Order:
A320NEO 4 2H2019
A321NEO 30 2H2019-2023
ATR 600 3 2020-2022
New Order:
A330NEO 16 2021-2024
A320NEO 5 2023-2024
A321XLR 10 2024-2026
Total Order 68
Total remaining aircraft order of 68, to replace existing Airbus A320 / A330 CEOs and ATR 72-500s
Estimated seat growth:5 year CAGR of 10-11%
Fleet Plan, end June 2019
14 Aug 2019
Baseline fleet of 85 aircraft by 2024, but with ability to grow further or moderate through lease market
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