cds of abs: the future is now. moderator: michael swenson, goldman sachs panelists: zain abdullah,...

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CDS of ABS: The Future is Now

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Page 1: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

CDS of ABS: The Future is Now

Page 2: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Moderator:

Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs

Panelists:

Zain Abdullah, Calyon

Josh Anderson, Pimco

Michael Knopf, MBIA

Nunzio Masone, Alladin Capital Management

Scott Eichel, Bear Stearns

Page 3: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Audience Makeup:

Are you:

A) Money Manager

B) Insurance Co.

C) Hedge Fund

D) Issuer/Originator

E) Broker/Dealer

F) Monoline

G) Other

Page 4: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Audience Makeup:

My current involvement in CDS could be described as

follows:

a. Have already transacted in ABS CDS

b. Have not transacted in ABS CDS, but am considering it

c. Will probably not transact in ABS CDS

Page 5: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Who have been the primary users of ABS CDS to

date?

Page 6: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

How have the monolines been involved in this

market?

Page 7: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

How have ABS CDS been used by CDO

managers?

Page 8: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

What is the cash-CDS basis and what has it been

doing?

Have CDS spreads lead cash spreads or vice

versa?

How have market technicals been impacted by

the growth of this market?

Page 9: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

How are the ABX indices constructed?

Page 10: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Comment on the first week of trading activity on

the ABX indices.

Page 11: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

What trades do we expect to occur with regard to

the ABX index?

Page 12: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

What have been the primary issues the buy side

has had to address prior to participating in the

ABS CDS or ABX market?

Page 13: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

What is your outlook on housing and subprime

spreads?

Page 14: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Audience Survey:

What is your outlook on housing for 2006?

A) Prices up 10% or more

B) Prices up 0 to 10%

C) Prices Flat

D) Prices down 0 to 10%

E) Prices down 10% or more

Page 15: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Audience Survey:

What is your outlook on subprime spreads for

2006?

A) spreads tighter

B) spreads flat

C) spreads wider

Page 16: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

What is the outlook for structured products CDS?

Page 17: CDS of ABS: The Future is Now. Moderator: Michael Swenson, Goldman Sachs Panelists: Zain Abdullah, Calyon Josh Anderson, Pimco Michael Knopf, MBIA Nunzio

Questions from the Audience