ccpca mineart
TRANSCRIPT
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Sea Level Rise
Local Level Project ImplementationsCCPCA Conference
San Jose State University
October 11, 2013
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Projects Incorporating SLR
•Sea Level Rise• Port of San Francisco – SLR adaptation• Port of Oakland – Levee raise• Balboa Island Seawalls
•SLR and Climate Change • Infrastructure Improvements• Risk Analysis
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Sea Level Rise Adaptation Ports of San Francisco and Oakland
•Sea Level Rise Analysis,•Coastal Inundation Study, •Locate vulnerable areas, and •Mitigation alternative analysis with recommendations
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Coastal Inundation
•100-year event• Existing• 2050, +15 inches• 2100, +55 inches
•110 years of tidal data•Ocean swell, wind waves and fresh water inflows not modified for climate change
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100-Year Water Level Results
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Adaptation
• Port of Oakland raised levees +1 foot + foundation• Port of San Francisco identified existing and future sources of flooding
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Balboa Seawalls
Presentation Title
Opt 1: Waterside seawall replacement options: Least invasive and expensive
Opt 2: Landside options: Greatest impact to properties, and Most expensive
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100yr Incremental Approach
8
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What and When to Include Climate Change?
Scenario Name CO2 Increase Global Climate Model UsedSRESa2 – gfdl CO2 emissions continue to accelerate National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl)
SRESb1 – gfdl The rate of emissions growth moderates and the emission rates themselves eventually decrease
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (gfdl)
SRESa2 – ncar CO2 emissions continue to accelerate Parallel Climate Model (pcm), by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (ncar)
SRESb1 – ncar The rate of emissions growth moderates and the emission rates themselves eventually decrease
Parallel Climate Model (pcm), by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (ncar)
When – Water levels are affected by freshwater inflowWhat - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIPS3)
16 different Global Climate Models (GCMs), 3 different CO2 emission scenarios and several different initial conditions for a total of 112 different projections
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Assumption
The future change in frequency of a given current return period event based on climate change model results will produce the same change in frequency for existing current return period
Example100-year flood frequency from the 1951–2000 flood frequency data has a 0.022 (45 year) flood frequency in the year 2050 (2026–2075 flood frequency curve)
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Combine SLR and Climate Change (Delta)
• Sea Level Rise in North Bay and Delta needs to be adjusted from Ocean Value• Hydraulic relationships, Hydrodynamic models
• Flows and Tides are Independent• Flood occurs when storm and high
tides coincide • Monte Carlo
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Change in Flood Frequency at Rio Vista
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Effect of Climate Change and SLR
Return Period ( years)
Excedance Probability
Increase in Water Level (feet)
2050 2100
500 0.002 3.97 7.36
200 0.005 3.48 6.43
100 0.01 3.19 5.93
75 0.013 2.95 5.67
50 0.02 2.48 5.07
25 0.04 2.14 3.96
20 0.05 2.04 3.41
10 0.1 1.91 2.86
5 0.2 1.73 2.56
2 0.5 1.53 2.06
1.0 1.0 1.31 1.66
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Questions???
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Wave Runup