cccsfaaa december 10, 2011. general fund tax revenues 1.5% 5.1% 5.4% 7.3% 5.4%
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Triggers• Higher of LAO and DOF
projections of 2011-12 revenue.
• If revenues more than $1 billion below, “Tier 1” trigger.
• If revenues more than $2 billion below, “Tier 2” trigger.
• LAO: $3.8 billion below.
• DOF: December 15.
• Triggers “pulled” in January.
CCC Triggers
Tier 1•$30 million apportionment cut•$46/unit fee effective summer
Tier 2•$72 million apportionment cut
Proposition 98
Test: 2 2 2 1 2 Susp. 1 2 1 1 2 2
2.4%-13.3% 1.8%
3.8%
0.2%
$4.1bsuspension
0.0%4.3%
5.0% 4.3% 5.2% 4.2%
CCC FundingLAO Assumptions; Proposition 98 at 11% +
$46/unit
$330m$285m
$257m$325m $280m
(assumestriggers)
CCC Budget ScenariosLAO Prop. 98 Assumptions
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
COLA $153m $91m $116m $136m $147mCOLA% 3.09% 1.75% 2.16% 2.41% 2.51%
1% Growth
$49m $52m $54m $56m $59m
“Leftover”
$131m $144m $89m $135m $77m
Pell GrantsRecord higher education demand and changes in eligibility has program growing faster than expected.
• $1.3 billion current year shortfall
• House appropriations bill cuts by $3.8b by reducing eligibility:
• limit to 6 years (from 9)
• cut off students with fewer than 6 units
• eliminate “ability to benefit” students
• Impact: $419 million cut to California aid, affecting 64,477 students
• Disproportionately impacts community college students
• Pell is larger than all other aid sources to CCC students, combined