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C & C Construction Ltd
INITIATING COVERAGE
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Anagram StockBroking Ltd: Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra(E), Mumbai 400 051. Ph: 42198100.
Regd. Office: Anagram House, Darshan Society Road, Nr Commerce Roads Circle, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad – 380 009.
Date: 16th November 2009
BUY CMP: Rs 244
One of the Fastest Growing Construction
Players
C & C Construction is one of the fastest growing
construction companies which, as per our
estimates, likely to grow at a CAGR of 44% over
2009-2013.
Operating Margins: Amongst the highest in
the Industry
The company has specialized bidding and
executing projects in adverse terrains like Bihar
and Afghanistan in order to secure better margins.
It has consistently reported operating margins of
around 20% for many years as compared to
average industry margins of around 10%-12%.
To build on Colossal Opportunities in Roads &
Highways
Considering the urgency to upgrade the road
network, the government has taken an aggressive
stance for the road development in the country.
The NHAI has plans to award projects worth Rs
3300 bn over the next 3-4 years in order to
construct around 33000 kilometers of roads.
Foray into other High Growth Segments
Having already proved excellence in roads projects
in India and Afghanistan, the company has now
started looking at other high growth verticals like
transmission (power and telecom), water &
sanitation and commercial buildings.
Valuation
We have valued the core construction business of
the company 7 times its FY11E earnings compared
to other construction players like IVRCL, NCC, IRB
Infra, Sadbhav Engineering, HCC and Simplex
Infra which trade 13 to 19 times their FY11E
earnings.
We value company’s construction business at Rs
307.6 per share assigning a multiple of 7 to its
FY11E earnings. The BOT project is valued at Rs
41.9 per share resulting in our one year SOTP
based price target to Rs 349.
Sector: Construction
Analyst: Abhishek Patel
CMP 244.0 Price Target 349.5 Potential Upside 43% 52 week Range Rs 87 - Rs284 No. Shares (Cr.) 1.8 Free Float (%) 29.7 Market Cap (Rs. Cr) 447.4 Avg Daily Volume 21385.0 Sensex Level 17032
Holding Structure
Promoters 70.25 FII 2.09 Corporate 6.14 Institutions 9.34 Govt 0.01 Public 12.18
Price Performance Compared to Sensex
Financials
2009 2010 (E) 2011(E) 2012(E) Net Sales (Rs Cr) 750.1 1205.5 1673.8 2311.9 Growth (%) 40.7 60.7 38.9 38.1 EPS (Rs) 22.6 31.9 43.9 71.0 OPM (%) 20.4 18.9 17.2 17.0 NPM (%) 5.5 4.8 4.8 5.6 Debt/Equity 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 ROE (%) 12.6 15.6 18.5 24.8 ROCE (%) 17.1 18.5 19.7 22.7 PE 10.8 7.7 5.6 3.5
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Investment Highlights
One of the Fastest Growing Construction Players
C & C Construction’s strong order book (i.e. > 4 times FY09
revenues), amplifying position in roads & highways and forays in
high growth infrastructure segments like transmission, water
sanitation and sewerage, civil & commercial buildings and
railways will, in our opinion, result in a CAGR of 44% in the top
line over FY09-FY13.
Operating Margins: Amongst the highest in the Industry
C & C Infrastructure has from beginning focused on development
in areas with adverse political or geographical environment like
Afghanistan (14% of the current order book) and Bihar (34% of
the current order book). The competition/ project bidding in
these areas is generally limited to 6-7 players only, enabling the
company to yield higher margins. The entire current order book
of the company is expected to have operating margins in the
range of 18%-20% compared to average industry margins for
similar projects of around 10%-12%.
Order backlog Grew at CAGR of 134% over 4 Years
The order book of the company has grown from Rs 109 Cr in
2005 to Rs 3259 Cr in 2009 - a CAGR of 134% over the last 4
years. The current order book of the company is around 4.35
times its FY09 revenues giving visibility.
To build on Colossal Opportunities in Roads & Highways
Considering the urgency to upgrade the road network, the
government has taken an aggressive stance for the road
development in the country. Under the leadership of new roads
and highways minister Mr Kamal Nath, the NHAI has put up an
ambitious plan of laying 20 km of roads a day from the current
pace of around 4 km.
109
618
1,051
1,747
3,259
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Order Book (Rs Cr)
CAGR of 44% In The Top Line Over FY09-FY13
The Current Orderbook at 4.35 times FY09 Revenues.
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
The NHAI has, in a recent conference mentioned that it will be
awarding roads projects for around 33000 km over the next 3-4
years to be completed by 2017. The total value of these projects
is estimated at around Rs 3300 bn. This presents an
unprecedented opportunity in the sector and companies like C &
C construction will immensely benefit from it.
Foray into Other High Growth Segments
In order to capitalize on the upcoming opportunities in other
infrastructure segments like transmission (power and telecom),
water & sanitation and commercial buildings. In power
transmission, Power Grid Corp. alone has massive capital
expenditure plan of creating 60,000 circuit km of transmission
lines and 50 substations during the 12th five year plan. PGCIL
expects to spend around 55000 Cr in the 11th and Rs 85000 Cr in
the 12th five year plan. Similarly, the projected investment under
the 11th plan on water supply and sanitation has increased by
121% to Rs 1437 bn representing a massive upcoming
opportunity.
Exposure to Adverse Terrains, still No Instance of Delay Penalties
The company has demonstrated solid execution & project
management capabilities over the years. Despite of exposure to
some adverse locations, the company has never faced delay
penalties.
Foray into High Growth Segments
like Transmission (Power &
Telecom), Water & Sanitation and Commercial Buildings.
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Concerns
Potential Dilution of Equity
The company’s order book nearly doubled in FY09 from Rs 1747
Cr in FY08. In order to meet growing capital expenditure and
working capital requirements, the company’s debt has increased
almost 125% in FY09 resulting in interest expense shooting up by
122% in FY09. The company had to raise funds at a time (FY09)
when liquidity was scarce and available at a very high cost.
Currently the company pays around 14% on its debt which is
high compared to what other construction companies pay in the
sector.
In our opinion, the management took a wise decision to not to
dilute equity (via QIP etc) at a very low price (as the stock price
had collapsed) and instead took loans to raise funds. Now that
the stock price has gone up significantly from Rs 87 in March 09
to Rs 230 currently, the management has hinted at dilution in
short – medium term. The management has indicated that this
will bring the D/E down from 1.75 currently to 1.25 by 2011.
While the fund raising (via equity root) will bring down the
debt/equity and give the management a much needed flexibility
to speed up execution of the existing projects as well as bid for
further projects, in the short term, EPS might be lower than our
estimates affecting our valuation.
Road BOT Projects Highly Vulnerable to Adverse
Changes in Policies
C & C Construction currently has one BOT project in its kitty and
the management plans to bid for more road BOT projects going
forward. Various policies for these road BOT projects are decided
by the NHAI (for the national highways projects) and by the
various state level authorities for the state highways projects.
Unfavourable changes in these policies related to revision of toll
rates, termination clause in case when traffic exceeds beyond
designed capacity etc can severely damage the valuation of the
existing projects and may even affect company’s growth plans in
this vertical.
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Company Profile
C & C Construction is a Gurgaon based infrastructure developer
providing engineering, procurement and construction services in
India and Afghanistan. While historically the company has
focused on projects in roads and highways, it has lately
diversified into transmission, water & sanitation and commercial
buildings. In Afghanistan the company works for Louis Berger,
United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), the Ministry
of Public Works and other projects funded by USAID, World Bank
and ADB. In India the company mainly works for various state
and central authorities like NHAI, PWD Punjab, AAI etc.
The company is present in all the major high growth areas of
Infrastructure like roads & highways, power and water &
sanitation. The government’s investment in these sectors have
witnessed 117%, 127% and 129% growth respectively in the 11th
five year plan and account for almost 60% of the total outlay.
The company will also bid for projects into transmission for
telecom and power companies.
The company bids for projects on its own as well as with its long
term 50-50 JV partner BSCPL association with which dates back
to 2001. Of the total order book of Rs 3259 Cr, C & C
Construction’s share of the projects in JV is Rs 1361 Cr (i.e 42%)
and the remaining projects are its independent contracts.
A major chunk of the company’s projects are located in politically
or geographically challenging areas like Bihar and Afghanistan
which allows company to earn higher than industry operating
margins.
Business Verticals
Roads and Highways
Roads and Highways have remained C & C Construction’s area of
expertise since beginning. The company has projects worth more
than Rs 2049 Cr in this vertical forming 63% of the total order
book. It has successfully executed various roads, flyovers,
bridges and subways projects under this vertical. Of the total 18
road projects that the company is currently executing, 9 are
located in Bihar, 2 in Himachal Pradesh and 1 is in Afghanistan.
Apart from working for various central and state level
government agencies, the company has also received repeat
orders from companies like J P Associates.
Kurali Kiratpur BOT
From just being a construction player, the company marked its
foray into BOT space in 2007 for 4 laning of 44 km of NH-21 from
Kurali to Kiratpur in Punjab. The project has concession period of
20 years and is in 49:51 JV with BCSPL having total expected
investment of Rs 410 Cr. So far, 60% of the work has been
63%
24%
12%
1%
Order Book Breakup
Roads Buildings Railways Water
34%
14%14%
14%
12%
6%5%
Geographical Break Up of Order Book
Bihar Afghanistan
Haryana Punjab
Utter Pradesh Himachal
Delhi & Others
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
completed and the project is expected to start toll collection from
June 2010. The project is expected to have IRR of 18%.
Opportunity
In recent years, Indian road network has been increasingly
scrutinized for its quality and is regarded as severely inadequate
to cater to the fast growing economy.
Of the total road network of 3.3 million kilometres, National
highways form just 2% of the total however, they account for
40% of the country’s traffic. Similarly, state highways and district
highways together account for almost 18% of the total road
network and carry 40% of the total traffic.
Length in km % % of Total Road
Traffic
National Highways 66754.00 2.01 40.00
State Highways 128000.00 3.86 40.00
Major District Roads 470000.00 14.18
Rural and Other Roads 2650000.00 79.95 20.00
Total 3314754.00 100.00 100.00
Source: Crisil, Anagram Research
Over the years, roads and highways have taken major burden of
freight and passenger movement off railways. According to the
latest available data, Roads and Highways accounted for 68%
and 87% for the freight and passenger movement compared to
14% and 29% in 1951 respectively.
Considering the urgency to upgrade the road network, the
government has taken an aggressive stance for the road
development in the country. Under the leadership of new roads
and highways minister Mr Kamal Nath, the NHAI has put up an
ambitious plan of laying 20 km of roads a day from the current
pace of around 4 km. In order to facilitate the project awarding
process and execution, the government has also amended
changes in policies like removing the cap on financial bid a
developer can make, higher portion of land acquisition at the
time of awarding, increasing the threshold limit to 25% in the
conflict of interest clause and 100% upfront viability gap funding.
The NHAI has, in a recent conference mentioned that it will be
awarding roads projects for around 33000 km over the next 3-4
years to be completed by 2017. The total value of these projects
is estimated at around Rs 3300 bn. This presents an
unprecedented opportunity in the sector and companies like C &
C construction will immensely benefit from it.
Road Projects For Around 33000
Kms Worth Rs 3300 bn to Come up
for Awarding in the Next 3 - 4
Years
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Railways
C and C Const is executing a railways project from Dedicated
Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) for
developing a portion of corridor from New Karwadiya to New Ganj
Khwaja in Bihar. The project cost is around Rs 781 Cr is being
executed in partnership with BCSPL. DFCCIL is expected to come
out with further projects worth Rs 9000 Cr in next 3 months and
C and C management has indicated of being serious contender
for these projects. Currently railways project account for 12% of
the total order book.
Opportunity
Historically, Indian Railways has run mixed traffic across its
network. In order to improve customer orientation and meet
market needs more effectively, the Ministry of Indian Railways
under its administrative control floated an SPV i.e. DFCCIL to
plan, develop and mobilize financial resources and construction,
maintenance and operation of dedicated freight corridors. In its
first phase DFCCIL is constructing 2 corridors, Western DFC and
the Eastern DFC spanning a total length of about 2800 route km.
The total investment for the first phase (2800 km) is expected to
be around Rs 37000 Cr. The government of India has recently
signed an agreement with Japan for the first tranche - Rs 133 Cr
– of Rs 17700 Cr loan for the same.
Civil and Commercial Buildings
Under this vertical, the company has 4 different projects worth
Rs 781 Cr of which 1 is in Afghanistan. Going forward, C & C
Construction’s focus will be on projects like hospitals, hotels,
educational institutes, bus terminus and various metro projects
funded by government and semi government agencies. Again
this is a vertical in which the company has forayed recently as
almost all of these projects were won in FY09. The vertical
contributes 24% to the total order backlog.
Mohali Complex
The company in March 09 received an order for development of
Inter State Bus Terminus & Commercial complex at Mohali,
Punjab with total expected investment of around Rs. 532 Cr. The
total built up area for the project is expected to be around 16
lacs square feet (lsf) of which, the bus terminus will comprise 2
lsf and the remaining 14 lsf will be of commercial developments
like offices, mall and hotel. C & C has 1.5 years to build the bus
terminus and 2.5 years for the commercial complex. The bus
terminus has the concession period of 20 years whereas the
commercial space can be leased for 90 years.
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Opportunity
Like most of the other countries in the world, India was badly hit
by the financial crisis that emerged from US in 2008. However,
the country still managed to grow by 6.7% in FY09 and most of
the economists expect it to clock similar growth for the current
fiscal as well. Real estates market, which was one of the most
severely hit sectors in FY09 has shown impressive revival in
H1FY10. Lately, there were also signs of revival in commercial
real estate market. The strong economic performance is expected
to spur public and private investment in commercial and civil
buildings like hospitals, hotels, corporate offices and educational
institutes.
Transmission
The company plans to focus on installation of towers for power
and telecom sectors and has already completed around 10
projects for Bharti Infotel and Tata Teleservices for laying optical
fiber cable. While the company does not have any order on this
front currently, it is actively looking at various opportunities in
this space and also working with Isolux of Spain for potential
orders.
Opportunity
In order to meet the growing power consumption, rapid
industrialization and huge energy deficit, the government of India
has planned to make large capital expenditure in the 11th five
year plan in the power generation, transmission and distribution
segments. The government has set a target of adding about
78000 MW of additional capacity of power generation in the 11th
five year plan and about 82000 MW capacities of power
generation in the 12th five year plan. Power Grid Corp. which has
created 72000 circuit km of transmission lines and 125
substations over the last two decades in the country plans to add
a further 60,000 circuit km and 50 substations during the 12th
five year plan (i.e. 2012-2017). The company has plans to spend
a total of Rs 55000 Cr in 11th and Rs 85000 Cr in 12th five year
plans.
Eastern and North-eastern region in the country will generate
more power than they consume as most coal and hydel based
power plants planned in Eleventh Plan will be located in that
region due to abundant availability of coal in that region. This
regional disparity would warrant the transfer of power from
surplus regions to power deficit southern and western region.
Industry sources point that this will result in transfer of 32000
MW of power between the regions by 2012.
Crisil Research has estimated a total investment of Rs 83,100 Cr
in power transmission (≈80%) and substations (≈20%) in the
eleventh five year plan.
Power Grid Corp plans to spend a
Total of Rs 55000 Cr in 11th and
Rs 85000 Cr in 12th Five Year Plans
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Water Sanitation and Sewerage
This is a space which C & C Construction considering as a growth
opportunity going forward. The company had already made its
entry in the segment in FY07 by bagging a subcontracting order –
though small - worth Rs 73 Cr (C & C share Rs 40 Cr) in a JV.
Opportunity
Due to the growing demand of water owing to increase in
population, urbanization and economic growth, the per capita
availability of water has decreased from 5000 cubic meters in
1947 to about 2000 cubic meters. The projected investment
under the 11th plan on water supply and sanitation has increased
by 121% to Rs 1437 bn representing a massive upcoming
opportunity.
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Valuation Over the years C & C has successfully maintained its operating
margins at around 20% compared to industry average of 10%-
12%. We have valued the core construction business of the
company 7 times its FY11E earnings compared to other
construction players like IVRCL, NCC, IRB Infra, Sadbhav
Engineering, HCC and Simplex Infra which trade 12 to 19 times
their FY11E earnings.
Company M CAP (Rs Cr) CMP FY11 EPS (E) FY11 PE (E)
Hindustan Const 4400.9 148.0 5.5 26.7
IRB Infra 8591.5 265.0 14.0 18.9
IVRCL Infra 5482.2 411.0 26.7 15.4
Madhucon Projects 1028.4 142.6 10.1 14.1
Nagarjuna Construction 4325.4 168.1 11.4 14.7
Sadbhav Engineering 1169.5 960.0 76.4 12.6
Simplex Infra 2535.1 505.0 39.7 12.7
Source: Bloomberg Mean Estimates, Anagram Research
We justify much lower than industry average PE multiples on
account of 1) expected dilution towards the end of FY10 and 2)
the fact that C & C Construction needs to prove its excellence in
the new areas it has planned to foray in like water, sanitation,
power transmission where it has little or no exposure currently.
Though we believe that the ISBT project in Mohali having
exposure to commercial development has potential to
significantly increase the overall valuation, we are not factoring
the same in our valuation as it is yet to achieve financial closure.
Entity Nature Valuation Methodology Total Value
(Rs Cr) Value per Share
to C&C Const
C and C Construction EPC FY11E PE Multiple (7 X) 307.6
C and C Projects (K-K Road Project) BOT Project P/BV multiple (1.5 X) 156.0 41.9
SOTP based Target Price 349
We value company’s construction business at Rs 307.6 per share
based on 7 times FY11E earnings. The BOT project is valued at
Rs 41.9 per share taking our one year SOTP based price target to
Rs 373.
While we will only come to know about the extent of dilution once
the company has taken approval of the same from shareholders
and the transaction is completed, our rough calculations point
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
towards dilution of around 27.4% (assuming dilution @ Rs 200 in
the worst case). This will bring the FY11 (E) EPS down to Rs 39 /
share from current expectations of Rs 44 / share and would also
value the BOT subsidiary at Rs 32.9 a share from the current Rs
41.9 a share. However, upon successfully completing the
transaction, the company’s capital structure will look much better
and the company as a whole will attract higher multiple of 8
(from 7 currently) resulting in the target price of Rs 345 (≈ Rs
349).
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Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
Income Statement (Rs Cr) Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
Net Revenues 533.3 750.1 1205.5 1673.8 2311.9 Cash and Equi. 52.3 85.0 27.6 20.8 3.6
Growth % 61.4 40.7 60.7 38.9 38.1 Receivables 143.0 350.0 495.4 596.2 760.1
COGS 373.7 501.4 825.2 1173.4 1629.9 Inventories 206.0 341.0 544.9 710.8 950.1
Gross Profit 159.6 248.7 380.2 500.5 682.0 Loans and Advances 99.9 219.0 219.0 219.0 219.0
Growth % 34.0 55.9 52.9 31.6 36.3 Investments 52.7 43.0 53.0 53.0 53.0
SG&A Expenses 66.3 96.0 152.1 212.6 289.0 Gross Fixed Assets 252.6 410.0 500.0 645.0 825.7
Core EBITDA 93.2 152.7 228.1 287.9 393.0 Net Fixed Assets 193.4 326.0 381.3 482.5 607.1
Growth % 29.7 63.8 49.4 26.2 36.5 CWIP 29.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
Other Income 11.7 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1 Application of Funds 776.6 1374.0 1731.2 2092.4 2602.9
Other Exp. & Adj 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 104.5 158.0 233.6 293.7 399.1
Depreciation 15.5 24.8 34.7 43.7 56.2 Accounts Payable 85.3 187.5 257.5 341.7 439.0
EBIT 89.1 133.2 198.9 250.0 342.9 Other Current Liabilities 94.4 207.5 284.9 378.1 485.8
Growth % 41.9 49.5 49.3 25.7 37.2 Provisions 9.4 5.9 8.3 11.4 18.5
Interest Exp 36.6 76.2 111.8 130.2 149.5 Deferred Tax Liabilities 7.9 15.9 28.2 45.2 72.5
EBT 52.5 56.9 87.0 119.8 193.4 Loan Funds 270.8 609.0 754.0 849.0 1009.0
Tax 11.6 15.7 28.7 39.5 63.8 Reserves and Surplus 290.7 330.0 380.0 448.8 559.9
Net Earnings 40.9 41.2 58.3 80.2 129.6 Equity Capital 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3
Growth % 23.3 0.8 41.4 37.6 61.5 Sources of Funds 776.6 1374.0 1731.2 2092.4 2602.9
Cash Flow Statement (Rs Cr) Financial Ratios
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
EBT Before Extraordinary Items 52.5 56.9 87.0 119.8 193.4 Profitability
Depreciation 15.5 24.8 34.7 43.7 56.2 Core EBITDA margins 17.5 20.4 18.9 17.2 17.0
Other Adjustments 34.7 71.4 106.8 124.9 143.9 Net Profit Margins 7.7 5.5 4.8 4.8 5.6
Changes in WC -
116.6 -245.6 -201.9 -89.3 -198.2 Return
Tax Paid -16.4 -7.3 -16.4 -22.6 -36.5 ROE 14.1 12.6 15.6 18.5 24.8
Cashflow from Operations -30.4 -99.8 10.2 176.4 158.8 ROCE 17.8 17.1 18.5 19.7 22.7
Liquidity and Gearing
Capital Expenditure -83.1 -138.1 -90.0 -145.0 -180.7 Cash Conversion Cycle 167.0 279.3 284.5 271.9 250.4
Investments 40.0 9.6 -10.0 0.0 0.0 Current Ratio 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1
Interest/Dividend received 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 Debt/Equity 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7
Cashflow from Investments -38.4 -123.6 -94.9 -139.7 -175.1 Interest Cover 2.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3
Per Share
Proceeds from Borrowings 133.4 338.2 145.0 95.0 160.0 EPS 22.4 22.6 31.9 43.9 71.0
Issue of Shares, QIP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating CashflowPS -16.6 -54.7 5.6 96.6 87.0 Interest/Dividend paid & Other -41.9 -82.1 -117.7 -138.5 -161.0 BVPS 169.2 190.7 218.1 255.8 316.6
Cashflow from Financing 91.5 256.2 27.3 -43.5 -1.0 Valuation
Price/Earning 10.9 10.8 7.7 5.6 3.5
Net Change in Cash 22.7 32.7 -57.4 -6.8 -17.2 Price/BV 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8
Initiating Coverage – C & C Construction Ltd.
16th November 2009
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Anagram and the analyst(s), including his dependant family members may have an interest in the securities recommended above. To unsubscribe, send a mail to [email protected] RATING INTERPRETATION BUY Expected to appreciate more than 20% over a 12-month period Accumulate Expected to appreciate up to 20% over a 12-month period
Neutral Expected to remain in a narrow range SELL Expected to depreciate more than 10% over a 12-month period Copyright in this document vests exclusively with Anagram Stock broking Limited