cc5001 planning tools part 2 2012
TRANSCRIPT
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Planning Tools and Techniques
Part 2
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2
Planning Tools and Techniques
Planning tools
Network diagrams
Critical path method
PERT analysis
Gantt charts
Resource histogram
Containment of risk
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PERT analysis
PERT stands for:Program Evaluation & Review Technique
A way of modelling uncertainty when scheduling
If used properly will lead to more stable schedules
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PERT analysis
Expected timecalculated from 3 estimates
for the duration of each activity
optimistic time(o)if things go well
most likely time(m)this is usually the original estimate
pessimistic time(p)if it can go wrong, it will...
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PERT analysis
Based on distribution, the expected time teis calculated as:
te
= [o + 4m + p] / 6
Our activity B has estimate of 4. Let us say:
o = 3, m = 4, p = 11
te = [3 + 16 + 11] / 6
Expected time te is 5, longer than the most likely time
This could change the critical path in the network diagram
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PERT analysis
try out the tasks past exam questions
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Gantt charts
Devised by Henry Gantt (early 1900s)
Block representation of tasks
Length of task bar proportional to duration
Each start/end time represented by task bar Graphical representation of project
Can translate network diagram into Gantt chart
Easy to read
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Can set questions while requesting and reviewing papers
Might not need two full weeks
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Might be able to start this task early
...and finish early
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Might not haveto start this task straight away
Might want to delaywhile doing other things
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Might be able to set questions in the middle of the time slot
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Questionnaire must be prepared before it can be issued
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Questionnaire must be issued & returned before results can be analysed
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Analyse data before interviewing subjects
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Gantt charts
Time line:week1
week2
week3
week4
week5
week6
week7
week8
week9
week10
Activities:
Request Jones paper
Request Smith paper
Review Jones paper
review Smith paper
Interview subjects
set q's for questionnaire
issue questionnaire
Analyse data from
q'naire
have report proof read
Write report
Submit report
Interview subjects before writing report
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Gantt charts in MS Project
ID Task Name Duration
1 Task 1 3 days
2 Task 2 2 days
3 Task 3 5 days
4 Task 4 3 days
5 Task 5 6 days
6 Task 6 3 days
7 Task 7 4 days
8 Task 8 1 day
T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F
12 Mar '00 19 Mar '00
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Gantt charts
In their basic form Gantt charts: Do not explicitly show logical dependencies
Do not optimise resources and costs Do not display current progress
But...They are simple to read
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Gantt charts in MS Project
ID Task Name
1 Activity 1
2 task 1.1
3 task 1.2
4 task 1.3
5 Activity 2
6 task 2.1
7 task 2.2
8 task 2.3
9 task 2.4
10 deliver
AB
AB[50%],CD[50%]
EF
AB
CD
AB,CD
EF
20/03
W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F
12 Mar '00 19 Mar '00
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Gantt charts
In more advanced forms Gantt charts:
Soon become cluttered
Become more difficult to read
Become more difficult to update
Still cannot easily show all task dependencies
Require computer software to keep up to date
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Gantt charts
try out the tasks including past exam papers
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Resource histogram
Identifies resource requirements over time Helps to identify peak resource requirements
Helps to identify unnecessary peaks and troughs(resource smoothing: keep within limits)
Commonly used to analyse staff resource levels
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Resource histogram
02
4
6
8
10
1214
16
18
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Week number
Staff required
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Resource histogram
upper limit of
staff resources
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Resource histogram
upper limit of
staff resources
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Staff resources
try out the tasks including past exam papers
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Risk: Isolate the Baseline Plan
Risksmust be associated with a planbefore
they can be handled
As risks could prevent the achievement of
objectives, plans for achieving objectives must
be in place before risks can be considered
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Risk revisited
Identify: Whatare the potential risks?
Assess: What is the impactof each risk? What is the likelihoodof the risk occurring?
How can the risk be preventedoridentified early?
What needs to be doneif the risk does occur? Allocate:
To whom can I assignthe risk?
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Containment
A new MS Access/Visual Basic system
for a retail company
Duration:requirements capture: 2 weeks
development: 8 weeksacceptance testing: 2 weeks
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Sequence of Activities
Requirements
Capture
Development Acceptance
2 Weeks 8 Weeks 2 Weeks
Project will last 12 weeks (i.e. 2 + 8 + 2)
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What is the risk?
There is an 90% chancethat this length of time is insufficient
because the MS Access specialist may be required to support a
project of higher priority.
If this were to happen, the 8 weeks scheduled for development
would then extend to 10 weeks
i.e. a 2 week delay
with 7 person-weeksfurther effort
Consider a containment action
investigate whether this is a cost-effective solution
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Including the element of risk
RC Development Acceptance
Risk: 2 week over-run
2 Weeks 8 Weeks (10%) 2 Weeks
90%
10%
2 Weeks
7 Person Weeks
Project will last 12 weeks (10%) or14 weeks (90%)
10 Weeks (90%)
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Containment Calculation
Expected value of additional duration
= 0.9 * 2
= 1.8 weeks
This evaluates the 90% chanceof a 2 week delay
Expected value of additional effort
= 0.9 * 7
= 6.3 person-weeksThis evaluates the 90% chanceof a further7 person-weeks
This calculation is without a containment action
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Containment
A 3-week training course in parallel(i.e. 1 extra week) with
the requirements capture would reduce the risk to 25%
with an additional 2 person-weekseffort
Draw a diagram to show the containment actionand
recalculate the revised impact on effort and duration
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Containing the risk
RC Development Acceptance
2 Weeks 2 Weeks
25%
75%
2 Weeks
7 Person-weeks
Course
3 Week course1 extraWeek
2 Person-weeks
Risk: 2 week over-run
Project will last 13 weeks (75%) or15 weeks (25%)
8 Weeks (75%)10 Weeks (25%)
Using a training course as
a containment action
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Containment Calculation
Expected value of additional duration
= 1 + (0.25 * 2)
= 1.5 weeks
This evaluates the extra weekon the course, plus the reducedrisk of 25%of a 2 week delay
Expected value of additional effort
= 2 + (0.25 * 7)
= 3.75 person-weeks
This evaluates extra 2 person-weekson the course, plus the
reduced risk of 25%of a further7 person-weeks
This calculation includes a containment action
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Dealing with risk
Would you book the course?
What other factors need to be considered?
How would the diagram look if the course is beforeRequirements Capture?
is betweenRequirements Capture and Development?
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Risk analysis
try out the tasks - including past exam papers
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Further reading
Bentley C (1997) PRINCE 2: A Practical Handbook Oxford:
Butterworth-Heinemann
Brooks F. (1995) The Mythical Man-Month (Anniversary Edition),
Harlow: Addison-Wesley Burke R (1999). Project Management: Planning and Control
Techniques, Chichester: Wiley
Central Computer & Telecommunications Agency (1997)
PRINCE 2: An Outline, London: The Stationery Office
Field M & Keller L (1998) Project Management, Oxford:International Thomson Business Press