Changing the water policy climate:A summary for policy makers of the report

Climate changes the water rules

International Steering Committee● World Water Council and the

3rd World Water Forum

● Global Water Partnership (GWP)

● The World International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

● International Water Association (IWA)

● Netherlands Water Partnership

● WMO and UNEP: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

● International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

● Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)

● UNESCO

● The World Bank

● United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

● International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

Sponsor GroupThe programme Partners for Water, a collaborativenetwork involving five Netherlands ministries,sponsors the core budget of DWC.

The international sponsor group is chaired by theWater Support Unit of the Ministry of ForeignAffairs of the Netherlands.

General Management OfficeP.O. Box 30152601 DA DelftThe Netherlands

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Internetwww.waterandclimate.org

Published in The Netherlands by the Dialogue on Water andClimateDesign and layout by ad4design, Liverpool, UKPrinted by Printfine Ltd., Liverpool, UKThis literature has been produced by a unique printing process,which is completely waterless and chemical free.Printed on material which is harvested from sustainable forestry.

The Dialogue on Water and Climate

WMO

UNEP

This booklet is a summary for water policy makersof the publication Climate changes the waterrules, a report by the Dialogue on Water andClimate (DWC) on "how water managers cancope with today’s climate variation andtomorrow’s climate change". The full report isrecommended reading for water planners,managers and policy makers and all thoseinvolved in responding to the growing number ofweather and climate related emergencies in allparts of the world. Both the main report and thissummary booklet can be viewed or downloadedat the DWC web sitehttp://www.waterandclimate.org and they are available by mail from:

DWC Science Support Office,P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen,The Netherlands.

The report contains the arguments and theevidence for review of water resources planningand management strategies, to cope with currentclimate extremes and future climate changes. Inthis booklet, the evidence is condensed into a fewstark messages about the dangers, threats andcosts of inaction. The main focus is then on whatpoliticians, water managers and climate specialistscan do now to adapt changes in the hydrologicalcycle.

Though the diagnosis is disturbing, the prognosisis encouraging. Adapting now to the challengesof more storms, floods and droughts will equipcommunities, governments and support agenciesto combat the longer term effects of anticipatedclimate change. Building climate-sensitiveplanning into their sustainable developmentagendas will reduce the chances of governments’Millennium Development Goals being washedaway by the next hydro-meteorological disaster.And pre-emptive investment in protection,mitigation and preparedness will help to slow thepresent escalating demand for humanitarian aidfor the victims of extreme weather events.

CONTENTS

Water and climate: The gathering storm 2

Water policy makers face a double challenge from anincreasingly turbulent climate. More weather-relatedemergencies mean heavy recovery and relief costs; and reduced yields from existing resources make itharder to meet rising water demands.

Facing the facts 2

Financial and human costs are escalatingNational development is at riskNature is a victim tooThe poorest are the most vulnerable

Combining climate and water skills 4

Eighteen multi-stakeholder "Dialogues" have assessedand prepared responses to the climate/water situation at river basin, national and regional levels.

Coping options explored 7

The Coping Compendium is a first listing of the options available to governments and all other water stakeholders seeking to adapt their waterresources management to current climatic challengesPolicy instrumentsTechnological and structural instrumentsRisk sharing and spreadingChange of use, activity or location

Progressing the adaptation agenda 11

Continuation of multistakeholders dialoguesVulnerability assessments

Building capacity to cope 11

Why developed and developing countries need to work together to reduce the impacts of climate extremes

Towards a Water and Climate Alliance 12

Recommendations for actions at basin, national andinternational levels and the proposed work programme of a new Water and Climate Alliance

1

Water and climate: The gathering storm

There is enough scientific evidence to show that theincreasing variability in the hydrological cyclewitnessed over the last 30 years in many parts of theworld is not just a blip on the meteorological timechart. It is with us to stay and the chances are it isgoing to intensify further as global warming adds tothe climatic turbulence. Perversely too it is thedeveloping countries of the South that are mostvulnerable to the effects of climate extremes. Thegrowing number of weather-related disasters putsever-increasing demands on humanitarian relief and isalready threatening governments’ poverty alleviationand sustainable development targets.

There is another ominous effect that compounds theimpact of regular disasters. Water resource plannersseek to match the forecast demands of futurepopulations for water, food, power and industrialdevelopment with the supplies that can be madeavailable on a sustainable basis from rivers, lakes,reservoirs and aquifers. Historically, a largelypredictable hydrological cycle has meant that reservoirstorage volumes and operating rules could be used tobalance the effect of wet and dry seasons. Using pastrecords of rainfall and river flows and allowing forevaporation and other losses, water engineeers andhydrologists could confidently design watermanagement systems that would deliver dependablesupplies throughout the year and regulate rivers tomoderate the effects of seasonal fluctuations. Nowthose fluctuations have gone off the charts.

Sometimes, as in the Sahel region of Africa, it is aprogressive fall in annual rainfall and average riverflows that reduces the overall water availability. Inother cases, like El Salvador, annual precipitation doesnot change, but the rain comes in brief intense stormsinterspersed with prolonged dry periods. The result isfloods and droughts that overwhelm the capacity ofthe infrastructure to cope. What this means is that thehyrdo-meteorological design parameters may nolonger be valid. Factoring in the intensifiedhydrological cycle and the predicted effects of climatechange, for regions that already suffer from watershortage, will often mean that the average wateryields are reduced, requiring storage capacity to beincreased. Not always though: in the three most water-scarce regions of China, the yield from current storagefacilities actually increases between now and 2050 for

each of the development scenarios commonly used tomodel climate change.

So, water policy makers face a double challenge: moredisasters mean increasing recovery costs; and, for someregions, reduced yields make it even harder to meetthe rising demands for water. The purpose of thisdocument is to point to potential solutions.

In its report, Climate changes the water rules, theDialogue on Water and Climate has put together awealth of evidence on climate variability and climatechange. With the help of 18 multi-stakeholderDialogues across the globe, and inputs from thematicexperts on water resources management and widerdevelopment issues, DWC has assembled a"Compendium" of coping options – a menu of actionsthat can help communities, governments and supportagencies to adapt to today’s and tomorrow’s turbulentclimate.

First, a bullet-point summary of the reasons why weneed to act now.

Facing the facts

● Financial and human losses are escalating. Inthe 1990s, damage from storms, floods anddroughts cost the world economy more than US$50for every man, woman and child on earth. The$300 billion costs of repairs and relief were up by afactor of four on those of the 1980s (see section1.3.1*). One of the world’s biggest reinsurancecompanies Munich Re has estimated that globalwarming could push annual losses to more thanUS$200 billion by 2050, unless the various

On 11-12 September, 2000, a total of 427mm of rain fell in24 hours in the Japanese city of Nagoya, breaking theprevious one-day record of 240mm dating back to 1890.

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Economic losses from weather-related disasters are rising fast

Extreme weather events are becoming

more common and more severe. It barely

matters how much of this intensifying

climate variability is part of a natural cycle

and how much is created by human

activities. What does matter is that the

storms, floods and droughts bring

mounting human suffering and escalating

economic losses.

* The references are to sections of the main report Climate changes thewater rules, where readers can find evidence for the points being made.

3

stakeholders, including governments, act quickly toadapt to our changing climate. The human cost isalso huge and rising. According to statisticsreported by the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO), hydrometeorologicaldisasters (storms, floods and droughts) claimedmore than half a million lives during the decade1991-2000. In all, the number of people affected bythe disasters topped two billion. Many of thesevictims are the poorest members of society, drivenby circumstances to settle in flood plains or onother marginal land. For them, being "affected" bya flood or drought can mean losing everything theypossess and relying on emergency relief until theycan start again to rebuild their fragile livelihoods.

● National development is at risk. The immediateeffects of extreme weather events are tragic andcostly, but they are not the end of the story. At thecommunity level, lost homes, livelihoods andinfrastructure can take years to replace. Forgovernments, the impact of lost crops, lost powergeneration and physical damage to transportationand other infrastructure can wipe out decades ofdevelopment. It has been widely reported thatHurricane Mitch set back economic development in

several Central American countries by 20 years.Successive droughts in Kenya in 1997/8 and1999/2000 are said to have cost the country 40-49%of its GDP (section 4.4.3*), while in MozambiqueGDP is reported to have fallen by 23% as a result ofthe 1999 floods (section 1.3.1*). The MillenniumDevelopment Goals to tackle hunger and povertyare put at risk by the threat of more frequentclimate extremes.

● Nature is a victim too. Climatic variations are anessential part of nature and many aquaticecosystems depend on seasonal fluctuations inrainfall and river flows. Over the years though,escalating withdrawals of water for humanconsumption, food production and industrial usehave meant diminishing availability of water topreserve ecosystems. Realisation has been growingrecently that safeguarding ecosystems bringsmultiple benefits, while losing them has serioussocial costs on top of the environmental ones.

When the effects of intensifying climate extremesare superimposed on increasing water demands forall uses, protecting nature is both more vital andmore challenging. In the floodplains of the RiverNiger in West Africa, steadily declining river flowshave meant a reduction of as much as 60% in thearea of land used for recession rice cultivation andnear collapse of the fishing industry in the innerNiger delta (section 2.4.1*).

● The poorest are the most vulnerable. Extremeweather causes damage wherever it strikes. Theimpacts though are different from place to place.Flood-swollen rivers periodically lead to extensiveproperty damage and big insurance claims inEurope, the USA and Japan. Significantly moreflood protection and modified land-use planningare going to be necessary in many industrialisedcountries to adapt to changing climate regimes. Inthe developed world, impacts are on a whollydifferent scale, as the headline-making floods inBangladesh and Mozambique have amplydemonstrated. Deaths, disease and displacement ofdisadvantaged communities are the devastatingimpacts of severe floods in the lesser developedcountries (LDCs). In these countries too, thecapacity to cope with climate extremes depends onmore than the severity of the event. The availabilityof human, technical and financial resourcesconditions both the preparedness and the response.When donors and relief agencies seek to determinepriority areas on the basis of vulnerability toclimate change or climate variability, the localcapacity to cope is a critical factor. A new "ClimateVulnerability Index", still in the developmental

* The references are to sections of the main report Climate changes thewater rules, where readers can find evidence for the points being made.

1997

2001

4

stages, seeks to combine developmental,geographic and environmental parameters withclimate projections, to compare the vulnerabilitiesof different countries and regions (section 3.3*).

communities. Women's shared commitment to thewelfare of their families and communities oftenleads them to form spontaneous women'sorganisations during disasters. At other times,existing women's organisations focus their activitiesto respond to community needs caused by disasters.These special attributes of women are rarelyrecognised formally in any disaster-preparednessplans, though they do tend to emergespontaneously when disaster strikes.

Combining climate and water skills

Until recently, changing climate was a peripheral issuefor water managers. Their attention had rightly beenfocused on the challenge of managing available waterresources in the optimum way, to satisfy the growingdemands of people, agriculture, industry and nature.Integrated water resources management (IWRM) wasrecognised as the primary tool for achieving water useefficiency and sustainability.

But, effective IWRM needs up-to-date information. Inthe past, hydrological calculations have been based onhistoric records of rainfall and river flows. From theserecords, different kinds of hydrographs allowed waterengineers to compute reservoir sizes to balanceseasonal supply and demand, the height ofembankments and the sizes of designated flood plainsto handle floods with an acceptable return period, andurban drainage systems to contain design stormswithout flooding city streets with sewage.

* The references are to sections of the main report Climate changes thewater rules, where readers can find evidence for the point being made

Vulnerability is a gender issue too. Women’straditional roles as providers of household waterand food and custodians of family health becomevery much more stressful and burdensome in theaftermath of a major flood. The informal andagricultural sectors are often the most impacted bynatural disasters, leaving women unemployed.Women in informal sector work, such as streetvending, child care and domestic work, or ownersof small home-based businesses, may lose their jobsand have no means of securing compensation fromrecovery programmes. On the other hand, focusingsolely on women’s vulnerability can be misleading,since they often have untapped skills, copingstrategies, and knowledge that can be used tominimise the impacts of disaster. For example,drawing on experience gained from managinglarge extended households, individual women haveturned their homes into feeding centres andshelters for displaced members of their

The battery of extreme floods and droughts in recentyears brought a new sense of urgency among watermanagers to consider changing rainfall and runoffpatterns in their design calculations. In 2001, theDialogue on Water and Climate (DWC) was created,with a mandate to foster co-operation andcollaboration among climate and water specialists. Thespecific goal was to address the problem of managingwater resources in a world of increasing hydrologicalvariability.

Floods in Albania are about more than water. Destroyed livelihoods come ontop of high unemployment and malnutrition. Photo by courtesy of IFRCRC.

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Eighteen multi-stakeholder "Dialogues" wereestablished, to assess and prepare responses to theclimate/water situation at river basin (eight Dialogues),national (two) and regional (eight) levels. As well asbridging the divide between water and climatespecialists, the Dialogues brought togetherrepresentatives of the community, local and nationalgovernment, NGOs, the private sector, andinternational knowledge institutions in the climatefield. The results, summarised in the "Yellow Pages" ofChapter 4 in Climate changes the water rules, haveamply demonstrated the power of partnership. Theyhave shown too that committed and empowereddialogues can develop impressive self-help ideas foradapting to climatic variability and change. Among themain report recommendations is one to continueinitiating dialogues at national, basin and regionallevels, and to prepare knowledge-based guidelines onhow to conduct these multi-stakeholder dialogues.

Alongside the Dialogues, DWC sponsored some 25Thematic Papers by recognised experts, to produce abroad analysis of all the key issues that might affectstrategies to cope with the influences of climate onwater resources management. The outcome is the firstever "Coping Compendium"

Coping options explored

While it is essential that continuing efforts are madeto mitigate the primary cause of climate change byreducing emissions of greenhouse gases, for the waterresources sector the main focus needs to be on“adaptation” to the effects of climate variability andchange. The Coping Compendium (Table 1) is anattempt to draw together options available to watermanagers seeking to adapt to the challenges ofclimate variability and climate change. It is presentedas a menu of activities, described only by brief titles. Inmany cases, the listed activity is linked to one or moreof the 18 Dialogues. In that way, readers can find moreinformation about how the activity relates to climateconcerns in those specific circumstances, by referring tothe Yellow Pages, or via the appropriate full Dialogue

report. The individual Dialogue reports are availablevia the DWC website (www.waterandclimate.org).

DWC presents the Compendium as a starting point forwhat it hopes will become a handbook forpractitioners and a start-up tool for future dialogues.Readers of the report are encouraged to supplementthe Compendium by contributing their ownexperiences of coping options, to help build up adossier of case studies.

Responses to the impacts of climate variability andclimate change involve coping actions at manydifferent levels. Internationally, treaties, conventionsand global accords are the foundation for concertedaction to mitigate global warming. Regionalcooperation and transboundary agreements provide abasis for better management of international rivers toprepare for and alleviate extreme events. Informationsharing, early warning systems, climate forecasting andmodelling all help water managers to prepare copingstrategies. But it is on the ground, in the individualriver basins and communities, that the vital copingactions have to be taken. The strong message goingout to governments, donors and disaster reliefagencies is that locally planned, locally managedadaptation to changing climatic circumstances ispractical, beneficial and cost effective.

A sample abstract from the "Yellow Pages" of Climate changes the waterrules

6

EnergyEnergy mixNew sources of energy, (low-carbonand renewables)Energy conversion technologiesEnergy demand management

TechnologicalImproved efficiency of end-use devicesReduction of industrial by-productsReduced process-gas emissions

Conserving the existing carbon poolsIncreased sequestration through newcarbon poolsSubstitution of sustainably-producedbiological products

REDUCING EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES

ENHANCING CARBON SINKS

MITIGATION OPTIONS

Participatory Approaches inDecision-MakingStakeholder DialoguesAwareness raisingStakeholder surveysNetworks of actionAdvocacy through stakeholder RiverBasin Committees

Knowledge ConsolidationCommon adaptation frameworksPiloting adaptation optionsBaseline studiesInternational information sharingIntegrated information systems

Research and DevelopmentImproved climate modellingIntegrated science programmesIntegrated management tools withclimate embeddedRisk mapping

Observation of basic dataMore intensive observation systems

SkillsTechnical and operational capacityForecasting Drought Resistant CropsSpecific skill needs

AllSan Pedro, Lena, NagoyaBangladesh, San Pedro, San JuanSmall Valleys ProgrammeThukela, San Pedro

MediterraneanWest AfricaNagoyaBangladesh, Pacific, CaribbeanYellow River, Aral Sea

Yellow RiverMurray Darling, Yellow RiverMurray Darling, Aral Sea

Netherlands, Mediterranean, Caribbean

Nagoya, Lena

Southern Africa, West AfricaSmall Valleys ProgrammeMediterraneanCaribbean, Small Valleys Programme

KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS AND PARTICIPATION

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY DRAWN FROM DIALOGUE(S)

POLICY INSTRUMENTS

TECHNOLOGICAL AND STRUCTURAL INSTRUMENTS

ADAPTATION OPTIONS DRAWN FROM DIALOGUE(S)

InternationalInternational Conventions on ClimateChange

International policy - to mitigate or toadapt?International Trade (particularly WTO)Polluter-pays principle influencesODA/Funds

RegionalRegional Adaptation Plans of Action

Regional Strategic Action Plans forIWRMTransboundary plans and interstatecooperationInformal bi-national cooperationRegional institutions

NationalNational Poverty Reduction StrategiesNational strategic interestsNational Water Policies and Laws

National Adaptation Plans of ActionDisaster Management PoliciesNational Drought Action PlansEconomic instruments and watermarketsRisk management cross-cutting indevelopment plansStrengthened functions of River BasinAuthoritiesIntegrated catchment managementWater management strategy underclimate changeNon-water planning, eg urban areas,refuges

Storage and ReticulationSurface waterLarge ReservoirsSmall ReservoirsGroundwater Artificial RechargeBorehole DrillingSand DamsScavenger/Gallery WellsRelated optionsSystem MaintenanceSupply Leakage ControlIrrigation equipment maintenanceIrrigation Canal LeakageRainwater HarvestingWater Re-use/Recycling

DesalinationFlood/Storm Surge Control Structures (Levees, Dykes)Preventative operations

Early Warning SystemsNear Real Time (Hours to Days)

Short-Term (Days to Weeks)Medium-Term (Month to Season)Long-Term (Years to Decades)Communicate Forecasts to End-Users

Operations/System Improvements Reservoir Operations RulesIntegrated, optimised reservoir systemsRetrofitting Existing StructuresIrrigation schedulingWater Demand Management

Indigenous Coping StrategiesPrecipitation Enhancement

Caribbean, Pacific Islands, Mediterranean,Southern Africa, West Africa, CentralAmerica, Netherlands, BangladeshNetherlands

Mediterranean, BangladeshSouthern Africa

Southern Africa, West Africa, Caribbean,Central America, MediterraneanSouthern Africa, West Africa, Pacific

San Juan, Aral Sea, West Africa,

San PedroCaribbean, Small Valleys Programme

Thukela, West Africa, Southern AfricaLenaThukela, Lena, Yellow River, Bangladesh,NetherlandsBangladeshBangladeshMurray DarlingMurray Darling, Yellow River, Aral Sea

San Juan, Bangladesh, Pacific, WestAfrica, NetherlandsSan Juan, Thukela, West Africa

Murray Darling, Yellow RiverLena

Nagoya

Nagoya*

****

***Nagoya, Caribbean Mediterranean, Bangladesh, Yellow River,Nagoya, Aral SeaCaribbean

Netherlands, Bangladesh, NagoyaLena

Bangladesh, Small Valleys Programme,Nagoya, West AfricaBangladeshWest Africa, Southern Africa, PacificCaribbean, PacificMediterranean, Netherlands, Thukela,Bangladesh, Nagoya

NagoyaNagoya*Murray-DarlingMediterranean, Bangladesh, Yellow River,Nagoya, Aral Sea**

RISK SHARING AND SPREADING

CHANGE OF USE, ACTIVITY OR LOCATION

ADAPTATION OPTIONS DRAWN FROM DIALOGUE(S)

Insurance Primary InsurersRe-InsuranceMicro-InsuranceFinanceDevelopment BanksPrivateMicro-Lenders

Land Use MeasuresConservation StructuresAdaptive Spatial PlanningTillage PracticesCrop varietiesResettlement

Caribbean**

***

Nagoya

San Juan

*denotes options originating from sources other than the 18 Dialogues.

Table 1 Compendium of Coping Options

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In the Coping Compendium, adaptation options aredivided into four categories:

● Policy instruments

● Technological and structural instruments

● Risk sharing and spreading

● Change of use, activity or location

A further heading: Knowledge, skills andparticipation lists activities intended to increase theadaptive capacity of the country or communityinitiating a coping strategy.

Policy instruments

Over the centuries, societies and ecosystems haveadapted to climate variability and climate change in anevolutionary way. Today, the rapidity of changes inhydrological regimes requires more immediate andmore concerted efforts. Policies and operating rulesfocused on optimum exploitation of available waterresources need to be adjusted. The hydrological ruleshave changed. Continually updated assessments ofmeteorological and hydrological data need to be anintegral part of water resources planning andmanagement. That is rarely the case now. Afundamental aspect of any coping strategy thereforemust be mainstreaming of climate issues into nationalwater management policy.

At the global level, the International Convention onClimate Change is influential in stimulating follow-upaction at regional and national scales, so its principlesand recommendations carry significant weight. Thedialogues in West Africa and the Caribbean Islandsboth call for stronger representation in the processesof the Convention. The World Trade Organisation

(WTO) negotiations have emerged as important indetermining a nation’s ability to cope (highlighted inthe Bangladesh and Mediterranean Dialogues). It ishigher level politics that will largely determine whathappens in this arena, but with the implications forwater-use changes implied by freer global foodmarkets, water and climate issues need to be on theWTO agenda.

Regional initiatives can bring economies of scale andoften a high level of political will. Regional AdaptationPlans of Action are now being actively pursued in fiveof the eight Dialogue regions. At national level, water-and-climate is a cross-cutting issue affecting manyaspects of social and economic development. Povertyreduction and sustainable development are the twomost obvious targets for mainstreaming climate issues,because of the threats to progress in these areas fromextreme weather events.

Technological and structural instruments

The list of coping options under this heading in theCompendium will seem to many readers like acatalogue of obvious water management operationsand forecasting techniques. It is true that, in mostcases, coping with climate need not involve manyinnovative or new processes. What it does mean isreviewing existing water management operations inthe light of today’s hydrological circumstances. Indoing so, managers will move a long way towardscoping with future climate changes.

A first condition for effective coping should be theexistence of forecasting and early warning systemsbased on short to medium-term weather forecasts andup-to-date hydrological information and linked to aneffective disaster-preparedness organisation.

Regrettably, such systemsare too often not in place.They require a high levelof local participation andcredibility, as well as astrong network for datagathering anddissemination. The FloodVulnerability Reductionand Development of LocalWarning Systemsprogramme in CentralAmerica, featured in theSmall Valleys Dialogue,shows that such systemscan be relatively costefficient. Anotherexample is the advancedearly warning systemoperational in Bangladesh(see box), which expresseshydrological data aboutimpending floods in waysDramatic effects of the 1982/83 El Niño in the Thukela region of South Africa. Red areas indicate areas with less than 20% of

the mean annual run off.

8

that can help to determine basin-wide impacts. DWCalso reports flood early warning systems in Europe,and a community-operated early warning system inGuatemala.

Seasonal up to inter-annual prediction systems areespecially relevant for agriculture. Regional and localseasonal predictions are being improved andsuccessfully linked to agricultural extension in, forexample, Brazil, southern Africa and the Indonesianarchipelago.

Climate forecasting tools are getting better, coveringlonger and shorter time horizons and larger and morelocal spatial scales. At regional level and for long timescales, climatologists are now able to produce weatherforecasts of modest accuracy particularly for thetropics, though there remain substantial uncertaintiesin climate projections, particularly for the higher andlower latitudes. The 1997/98 El Niño events were thefirst to be detected and made known through alerts to

a network of organisations in many regions of theworld and this led to significant savings in lives andproperty.

Although long-term climate scenarios cannot meet theoperational needs of today's water managers, shortand medium-term weather and climate forecasts canbe of huge benefit. Further improvement in short-termforecasting (3, 15, 30 and 90-days) is seen as one of themore important technological breakthroughs that willimprove adaptive capacity. However, these forecastsare not yet being used in many parts of the world inwater management, partly for lack of capacity, butalso because the potential has not yet been realised bywater managers.

Increased storage is a logical option to cope withchanging hydrological parameters (rainfall and runoff).New dams and reservoirs are not always a popularsolution though. They raise controversies overenvironmental and resettlement issues and have been

To predict water level conditions in Bangladesh, theFlood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC)collects measurements of water level and rainfall,reviews satellite pictures and simulates the waterlevel conditions using a numerical model of theBangladeshi river network. Every day during themonsoon season, the model simulates the waterlevels for the previous seven days (hind-castsimulations) and the coming three days (forecastsimulation). Results from the model simulations areused to provide flood forecasting and warning.

The outcomes of the work at FFWC are to a largeextent measured and simulated water levels. Waterlevels can be transformed into inundation maps likethe one shown here.

To produce the flood inundation map a digitalelevation map (DEM) of Bangladesh is used.Measured, hind-cast, forecast and transformedwater levels are all determined with a givenprecision, but also influenced by errors originatingmainly from the measurements. Water levelsforecast by the system are not precise, partlybecause the model boundary conditions (waterlevel boundaries at the Indian border and at theBay of Bengal and rainfall over Bangladesh) need tobe extrapolated. The upstream water levelboundaries at the Indian border in particular limitthe possible forecast time. Today it is not possible toforecast the flood level in Bangladesh more thanthree days ahead. If the boundaries could be movedfurther upstream, i.e. inside India, it would bepossible to give longer forecasts.Source www.ffwc.net

Flood forecasting and warning in Bangladesh

Flood inundation map of Bangladesh for 14 August 2002. Created by combineduse of a digital elevation model (DEM) and water levels forecast by the FWWC.

9

blamed for spreading vector-borne diseases likeschistosomiasis and malaria. In December 2000, theWorld Commission on Dams produced acomprehensive report Dams and Development: A Newframework for Decision-Making, promoting five "corevalues" – equity, sustainability, efficiency, participatorydecision-making, and accountability. The frameworkand guidelines are to guide projects for newconstruction and for rehabilitation of dams, but theyhave not yet factored in climate change/variability.Alternative storage options that need to be exploredin this context are ground water storage andrainwater harvesting.

Boosting groundwater storage through aquiferrecharge can have advantages over surface waterstorage, because of the reduction in evaporationlosses. By way of example, if 50% of the surface waterstorage for the supply of Windhoek, Namibia, wastransferred to underground storage, the decrease inevaporative losses would equal about 60% of thewater demand of Windhoek. Water for aquiferrecharge may be diverted urban stormwater runoff,irrigation return flows or, with appropriate controls,reused municipal wastewater. At local level, rainwaterharvesting is growing in popularity as a cost-effectiveway for the unserved poor to obtain improved watersupplies. It has the additional benefit that it adds tothe resilience of community water supplies.

For cities and coastal regions susceptible to floodsand/or storm surges, each disastrous event prompts areview of control structures. River bed deepening andwidening, diversion channels and extra flood basinsare among the protection measures that are normallyrecommended. Raising flood embankments (dikes) is acommon, if expensive solution. It can also be a riskyone, as future overtopping and failure of raised flooddefences will add to the perils of those "protected" bythem. In the light of increasing risks of extreme events,the effectiveness of these “solutions” needs to becritically reassessed. Other coping options may well bemore effective. For example, the disaster sheltersconstructed in Bangladesh after the 1991 cyclone killed140,000 people are considered to have been veryeffective in saving lives during later storm surges.

Risk sharing and spreading

New insurance products and mechanisms areconstantly under development. Crop insurance andmicroinsurance mechanisms are providing risk transferto individual (often poor) farmers and other groupswho lack access to traditional formal insurance andfinance. Both Morocco and Cambodia are investigatingand piloting a risk management approach to alleviateloss of agricultural income due to natural hazards. TheGovernment of South Africa is in the process ofdebating legislation to stimulate a market in cropinsurance. Despite the seemingly insurmountable oddsagainst government-run multi-peril crop insuranceprogrammes for the small scale, traditional orsubsistence farmers, there are a growing number ofspecialists who believe that a modified crop insurancescheme for small farmers can be developed andimplemented in a viable and sustainable manner.

At household level, microfinance enables families andgroups to rebuild economic activities and livelihoodsafter disasters and to help themselves out of poverty.For example, in Bangladesh, Grameen Bank lendsUS$30 million a month to 1.8 million borrowers, BRACprovides loans of between 1000 thakas (US$20) and Tk 20,000 (US$400). Governments provide several typesof support for disaster response, with workfareprogrammes successfully maintaining livelihoods foraffected people (e.g. Frente de Trabalho in North-Eastern Brazil), providing employment in periods ofdrought.

Not all forms of risk-spreading involve money. Farmershave traditionally dealt with risk by spreading theirresources. They have always taken steps to build-intheir own insurance through their cropping andplanting strategies, careful that one failure will notprove to be a catastrophe. It is an approach that canbe developed and enhanced by better forecasting andco-operative action with support for alternative cropsand planting schedules.

Change of use, activity or location

Sea level rise, shrinking natural lakes anddesertification all force changes of land-use andlivelihoods. The increasing susceptibility of flood plainsto extreme events means that governments have toconsider prescriptive spatial and land-use planning as acoping option. In some cases, like the examples of theNetherlands and Japan described in the main reportsYellow Pages (Chapter 4), coping measures include ana priori acceptance of some degree of risk andcontrolled damage, as opposed to maximumprotection. With increasing climate variability andfuture climate change, “living with floods anddroughts” is likely to become a much more commoncoping strategy. Resettlement is neither popular nordesirable, but it may eventually become inevitable. In

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Pedro is a 39 years old Mozambique Red Crossvolunteer, who in the year 2000 lived in Chókwè, adistrict of the Mozambique’s Gaza province, with hiswife and two children. He started his activities withthe Red Cross during the years of war, in the early90’s. When the flooding started in Chókwè, Pedrohad already been helping the local authorities tospread the message that people should move tohigher ground, because the waters would rise to thelevel of the 1997 ones, which affected this area quitebadly. At the time he was passing on the message hecould not see any signs of the announced waters, sohe thought he had time to take his cattle and a fewother things with him next morning before thewaters would reach his village. The water came verysuddenly at three in the morning, while everybodywas still sleeping. They were wakened by thefrightening noise of large quantities of water, whichwashed away everything around.

When Pedro fell off his bed, he realized that thewater was up to his knees and just managed to openthe door of his small house and get out. Then hewent out to the already flooded area around himand joined other people, who were screaming andtrying to run away. A small wooden boat already fullof people was waiting ahead of him. Pedro managedto get into the boat with his wife and children justbefore it started moving. The boat dropped them ata higher and safer place and went back to rescuemore people who were desperately trying to escapethe fury of the waters. In the morning everybodystarted walking under the guidance of the localauthorities until they reached Chihakelaneresettlement area.

This was the first group to arrive there, butChihakelane grew into a resettlement area withsome several thousand people within a very short

time span. Various organizations provided reliefsupport to the people at this resettlement area, fromshelter, to food, drinkable water and clothing. InChihakelane, Pedro joined the local Red Crossvolunteers from Macia (a district nearby), whoformed teams to provide first aid and help set uptents, build latrines and chlorinate water amongother services.

We met Pedro in a tent, which was functioning as afirst aid post, close to the local Ministry of Healthcentre. Together with three more Red Crossvolunteers, Pedro provided first aid to an average of100 people daily. This kept them working severalhours a day until more volunteers could be recruitedand trained to help with the huge demands.

Pedro only managed to get back to Chókwè somemonths later, after the dead bodies of people andanimals were removed and the authorities gavepermission for people to return. He still lives inChókwè in a house rebuilt with support from anNGO operating in the area. He has recentlyundergone more training in Disaster Preparednessissues, conducted as part of the RC disasterpreparedness activities. A Red Cross office with asmall warehouse has been built in Chókwè and asmall relief stock is being kept there for futuredisasters, so warehouse management was also partof the training for Chókwè volunteers.

When asked whether he would not prefer to live in asafer place, Pedro explains that this would be verydifficult, since he would not find the same plot(machamba) to grow his crops and feed his family ortrade for other products they need in their dailylives: "Here I don’t have to dispute my land withanyone. Everybody knows that this is the Chambal’splot and I don’t need to argue about it. I will growsimilar trees as the ones I had before the floods andif God helps me I will be able to make enoughincome to buy again a pair of cattle to restore mylife and help my children grow healthy. After allfloods like those we will have again only after some100 years and then we will not be in this worldanymore".

Will the next serious floods in Mozambique reallyoccur only after 100 years? Whether Pedro’sprediction is right or wrong, still remains thequestion we are searching answers for, but theresponsibility to help him to be prepared to facefuture disasters with the minimum possible damageto his life, lies which each and everyone of us.

Prepared by Eunice Mucache, Head of Programmes, Mozambique RedCross Society.

Presented at the Conference on Disaster Preparedness and ClimateChange held in the Netherlands in June 2002 and at the World Summiton Social Development, held in South Africa in December 2002.

A “moving” story from Mozambique

Thousands of people were rescued by small wooden boats piloted bylocal volunteers during the Mozambique floods

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the Dialogues it became clear that, even in bottom-upstrategic planning, switching livelihood practices couldnot be excluded.

Progressing the adaptation agenda

Continuation of multistakeholder dialogues

The multistakeholder Dialogues have been a usefulcontribution to improving participation, knowledgeand skills. They have brought together stakeholdersfrom many different camps – often camps that do notcommonly interact. Advocacy and awareness-raisinghas influenced river basin committees and governmentagencies and brought water-and-climate issues to theattention of the general populace and the politicians –so securing a broad and political basis for action.Practical examples of local action include Nagoya andthe San Pedro and Lena basins. Other examples incommunity-based flood mitigation are Bandung City inIndonesia, the tsunami disaster reduction awarenessprogramme in Papua New Guinea, and the NGO-drivenfloodwater campaign of the Rhine.

Mapping project for the Typhoon Committee area as ameans to share information amongst membercountries.

Most currently available vulnerability assessmentmethodologies adopt a “top-down” approach. Theaim is to provide a comparative overview of theregions that may require priority attention from thedevelopment assistance community. There areproblems though with these assessments (see Chapter3 of the main report). The resolution scale of mostglobal models is too small and the timescale too longto encompass local climate variability. Though somegrassroots level vulnerability assessmentmethodologies are becoming available, they are stillunder development and their use is quite limited.Much greater use is to be encouraged, both alone andin combination with top-down assessments.

There is scope for research and development toimprove the scale and focus of the climate models – tohelp planners to plan better, and to give primarystakeholders some sense of what might really be goingto happen. Despite increasing predictive skills, there isstill a widely recognised gap in the capacity to forecastclimate at basin, regional or national level overseasons or years. There are calls for development ofmultidisciplinary, grassroots level vulnerabilityassessment tools. There are also calls for integratedscience programmes – linking climate to epidemiology,or linking food productivity under water shortages tocalorific intake. The overall direction is towardsintegration – merging climate with other factors sothat it can be assessed in a wider context duringdecision-taking. All these activities depend on data.Over the years, many hydrological observation stationsin developing countries have fallen into disrepair anddisuse. Restoring and extending the hydrological database is a pressing need and an important condition foradaptation progress in many countries.

Building capacity to cope

The self-help potential of local agencies is limited byavailable resources – technical, institutional andfinancial. Many governments too require significantoutside support to implement adaptation strategiesfor coping with changes in climate.

There are three prime reasons why donorgovernments, relief agencies and other externalsupport agencies should be sympathetic to requests forsupport:

1. The polluter pays principle: Greenhouse gases comepredominantly from the industrialised countries,but it is primarily the developing countries thatsuffer the worst impacts.

2. Extreme weather and climate events are havingdevastating impacts on progress towards theshared developmental goals of poverty alleviationand sustainable development. Precautionary

The Dialogues have shown there to be a large amountof knowledge already out there, but there are evidentareas where this can be improved – particularly inconsolidation and focus. Fruitful areas for action areseen to lie in common adaptation frameworks,baseline studies, international information sharing,integrated information systems and the piloting ofadaptation options. Information systems on disastershave mushroomed in recent years, including Reliefweb, the Southern African Flood and DroughtInformation Network, the National Natural DisasterKnowledge Network (Nanadisk-Net) in India and theAustralian Disaster Information Network (AusDIN).

Vulnerability assessments

Hazard (or vulnerability) assessments can be of a greathelp to planners and managers in their prevention ofserious damage through land-use planning anddisaster management. Hazard maps are findingroutine applications in several countries, including theUS, UK, Japan, France, Norway and some developingcountries. ESCAP/WMO initiated the Flood Hazard

A combination of ice jams and high spring discharges can raise water levels15-20 metres above normal in the Lena basin in eastern Siberia.

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DIALOGUESThe 18 dialogues at the national, basin and regional level haveshown that bringing together different stakeholders from thegovernment, private sector, NGOs and the information/knowledgesector does stimulate a process to start up awareness raising,information collection and sharing, and preparations for actionon the impacts of climate change and increasing climate variabilityin the water sector.

NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLANS OF ACTION (NAPAs)The NAPA for LDCs and National Communications for non-LDCs ofthe UNFCCC, which are eligible for support by the GEF LDCAdaptation Fund provide a useful mechanism for adaptationplans, but GEF support is limited to climate-change impacts andexcludes climate-variability impacts. To be relevant to the watersector, the NAPAs should also include adaptation to increasingclimate variability.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTTop-down scenario-based model studies for assessment of nationalvulnerability to climate change are fairly well developed, relativelyeasily accessible and frequently used. Grassroots-level tools toassess the vulnerability of particular communities, cities,ecosystems, coastal zones, etc, are still being developed, and arenot locally available. These tools are vital to complement the ‘topdown’ assessments and for national/basin/regional planning andpriority setting.

PREDICTION AND PREPAREDNESSPresent predictions can provide water managers with reasonablyaccurate short-term weather information (days up to weeks).Predictions for the longer term (seasons or even a few years) areimproving in reliability.

THE CLIMATE AND WATER RESEARCH AGENDAThere is a widely recognised gap in predictive capacity when itcomes to forecasting climate at basin level over seasons or years.That is the information needed for water resource planning tocope with climate variability. Temporal and spatial downscaling ofpredictions from Global Circulation Models is an urgent need.Research is needed on multi-disciplinary tools for integratedassessment f vulnerability on a local scale.

RESEARCH, MONITORING AND KNOWLEDGE SHARINGDWC’s Coping Compendium (Chapter 4) highlights a wide rangeof adaptation options, many still in their infancy in relation tocoping with climate variations. Research and information sharing will accelerate understanding ofhow to build resilience and moderate the impacts of extremeweather and climate. The private sector and relief agencies share a common interest ineffective protection and preparedness.

CAPACITY DEVELOPMENTTo cope with increasing hydrological variations and weatherextremes, water managers need new skills. Climatologists too haveto work in different ways to provide the right help to their watercolleagues. Both parties can benefit from training, toolsdevelopment and knowledge sharing, as can the partner agenciesinvolved in the adaptation dialogues

PUBLIC AWARENESSThe 18 dialogues have demonstrated the value of awarenessraising to motivate local action.

WATER AND CLIMATE ALLIANCEThe Dialogue on Water and Climate has been an effectivenetworking vehicle to encourage closer collaboration between theclimate community (meteorology and hydrology) and the watercommunity. That work needs to continue and expand.

RATIONALE

investments in disaster preparedness andadaptation will help to protect developmentalprogress.

3. Support for local adaptation pays dividends insavings on relief and recovery costs when theextreme event arrives. The Red Cross estimates thateach dollar spent on prevention saves from four toten dollars in relief (see the South-East AsiaDialogue summary in Chapter 4 of the mainreport).

In international circles, there is a growing consensuson the need to mainstream adaptation to climatevariability into the poverty reduction and sustainabledevelopment agenda. Adaptation to climate changeshould by 2005 be fundable through the GlobalEnvironmental Facility (GEF), but the limitations onfunding through National Adaptation programmes ofAction (NAPAs) remain quite restrictive (see section5.4.3). While the debate goes on about the extent towhich adaptation to climate variability is part ofcoping with climate change, other avenues of supporthave to be opened up. They will come through theregular dialogues between governments and theinternational development assistance community andwill be hastened by governments committingthemselves to mainstreaming adaptation to climateinto their national water, poverty reduction andsustainable development programmes.

Numerous international agencies already provideinformation sharing, capacity building and researchsupport (see section 5.3 and the agency summaries inChapter 5).

Towards a Water and Climate Alliance

The Dialogue on Water and Climate has started analliance of local, national, basin and regionalinitiatives. On the basis of lessons learned from the 18Dialogues, the international organisations that havebeen part of the Dialogue intend to continue buildingbridges between the climate and water communities.It is proposed that an Associate Programme of theGlobal Water Partnership (GWP) should be themechanism for supporting the ongoing and newactivities following on from DWC. This programme willinclude promoting and facilitating capacity building atall levels, assistance to countries in obtaining technicaland financial support for adaptation plans, andcontinuous advocacy for relaxation of GEF rules toaccommodate national adaptation plans that respondto the accelerating hydrological cycle.

The recommended follow-up activities haveimplications at all levels. They are set out in tabularform alongside, identifying the need for action atbasin, country and regional level, and the types ofexternal support needed to make the most of nationaladaptation strategies.

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Water managers, in co-operation with national governments,NGOs, etc.) should continue to be encouraged to startmultistakeholder dialogues at basin, national and regional levelto prepare adaptation plans for climate change/climatevariability. The aim should be to link basin dialogues withappropriate country and regional dialogues, to cover the mostvulnerable basins and regions

Countries (in particular the most vulnerable) should prepare acomprehensive water sector NAPA or National Communicationwithin the overall goals of development and sustainability,following the WEHAB framework as described in the Plan ofImplementation of the WSSD and including poverty andvulnerability reduction targets laid down in the MillenniumDevelopment goals.

Identify the water sector-related social, economic andenvironmental vulnerabilities to climate change and extremesthrough both scenario-based model studies and the bestavailable grassroots vulnerability assessments for specificallyvulnerable areas such as coastal areas, marginal lands, cities,small islands, ecosystems, the poor. BUT: take local actionwithout waiting for priority comparisons.

Vulnerable basins or communities should work with bestavailable short term (2-5 days) prediction information andestablish early warning systems and response strategies. Thismay include rehabilitating defunct hydrological monitoringstations and sharing information across international borders.Seasonal prediction and early warning/response systems shouldbe introduced where expected to be feasible and effective.

Work with climatologists, meteorologists and hydrologists inthe international specialist agencies to develop best availableforecasting and prediction models to suit basin and nationalneeds. Co-operate in pilot testing and data gathering toimprove models, and share data across networks of water andclimate specialists.

Research, record and share information on innovativeadaptation options. Involve the private sector in micro-creditand risk-sharing initiatives; exchange knowledgeinternationally on policy instruments, technology, ecologicalvulnerability/resilience, land-use planning, etc.

Organise workshops, training courses, distance learning andexchange programmes, to build the capacity of watermanagers, climatologists and extension workers to addresswater-and-climate issues. Review institutional frameworks anddevelop capacity for co-operation in adaptation strategies

Use media, publications, posters and appropriate localcommunication networks to raise awareness of weatherhazards and coping options. Mobilise women’s groups,religious leaders and teachers to disseminate key messages

Convert the outcomes of basin, country and regional dialoguesinto co-operative adaptation strategies and contribute to anexpanding global network on water-and-climate issues.

ACTIONS BY COUNTRIES, BASINS AND REGIONS

International institutions and agencies are urged to providetechnical and logistical support for the activities of new dialogues.Bilateral and multilateral development support agencies cansupport the operations of the dialogues, where nationalgovernments demonstrate that they are integrated with prioritydevelopmental objectives.Target: Five new Dialogues per year

It is recommended that an interagency working group isestablished under GEF with representatives from multilateral andbilateral agencies including GWP and international NGOs (IUCN,Red Cross) to develop a financial support mechanism for watersector NAPAs for the long term, and also to develop a transitionaryfinancial support facility to support water sector adaptation planpreparation and implementation.

Support is urgently needed for the further development ofgrassroots-level assessment methodologies like the ClimateVulnerability Index, and their use by regional, country and basinlevel governmental, science and NGO organisations. Internationalorganisations can help with research, co-ordination and finance.

International river basin authorities/commissions can and shouldmake valuable data on prediction freely and readily available todownstream countries.Technical and financial support from donors/UN agencies can helpwith early warning systems (from short term to seasonal) andpreparedness/response plans.

UNESCO, WMO, IRI, Hadley Centre and other international partnershave a comprehensive agenda to assist regional and country levelwater managers with tools for planning purposes that take accountof the impacts of climate variability and change on water resourcesmanagement for people, food, energy and ecosystems.The compendium on coping options should be completed basedupon best practices and field level experiences. The compendiumshould be made available via capacity development activities andon the web.

WHO, IUCN, WB, UNDP, UNESCO and universities with localpartners draw up an agenda for research, methodologydevelopment and monitoring systems to study resilience of social,economic, human health and ecosystems to impacts of climate onthe water system and the effectiveness of innovative adaptationoptions.Involve private and non-governmental sectors in risk sharing andinnovative financing.

UNESCO-IHE, PI, IRI, UN Universities, CAPNET, GWP (tool box) andother capacity development networks further develop, train andapply the tools, including the Coping Compendium, capacitatinglocal level water managers to cope.

Disseminate publicity materials widely, use internetcommunications and websites to spread international publicity.Issue timely warnings of impending climatic extremes or El Niñoevents.

Continue the activities of the DWC through a Water and ClimateAssociate Programme of the Global Water Partnership, withsupport from funding agencies. Initiate the proposed WorkProgramme to support NAPAs and National Communications. Encourage the identified international partners of the WCAP todevelop and continue to support programmes and activities on therecommendations above.

EXTERNAL SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FOLLOW-UP