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Adaptation to Climate Change in AgricultureProposal to prepare a compendium of case studies on adaptation to Climate

Change in the Agriculture sector in the Indian context

Rahul Bhargava

August 2012

Methodology and foundation 1Methodology 1Equipment 2Foundation 2Climate variability and change guideline 3NICRA technical programme 5Sensitivity variables 9Adaptive capacity variables 9Adaptation measures 10

Description of proposed tasks 11

Glossary 14

References 14

1 Methodology and foundation

1.1 Methodology

Both primary and secondary sources will be used to gather information. These willinclude,

Review of the literature To capture the broader context and provide a frame of ref-erence for the case studies. Also for stocktaking of existing activities related toclimate change adaptation in the Indian context and desk review.

Key informant interviews Senior managers and officials with the Government, aca-demics, civil society and NGOs who are knowledgeable about interventions beingundertaken and their strategic value

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Limited survey of field personnel and beneficiaries To gather representative statisticswhere none are available via representatives

Limitations and expectations Budgetary and time constraints will limit the number offield visits, surveys and interactions possible.

1.2 Equipment

For recording Key Informant interviews, taking some lessons from the ethnographicfilm and documentary literature [Lindenmuth(2010), Grimshaw(2004), Heider(2006),Jong and Austin(2008)], I have procured equipment for field work, including a digi-tal SRL camera, with several lenses, an electronic field recorder, lighting equipmentcomprising of a flash and LED panels, various mounts and a tripod.

Over several months, and having taken several thousand photographs, I have im-proved my photography skill and I am currently learning from the documentary andethnographic film literature how best to record interviews and field visits.

I propose to use my own equipment in the field, or where higher quality professionalequipment is available or rentals can be costed, I can operate alternatives instead.

Audio recording Zoom H1 portable digital recorder. Professional equipment alterna-tives are the Zoom H4n portable, capable of four channel simultaneous recordingor the Tascam DR-100 MkII portable digital recorder.

Photography and Video recording Canon EOS 550D with the Canon EF 50mm f/1.8II, Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS II and Canon EF 75-300mm f/4-5.6 III lenses.Professional equipment alternatives are the Canon EOS 5D Mark II SLR or NikonD800 SLR.

GPS logging, electronic field data entry and electronic release forms Using a smart-phone and a laptop, or dedicated alternatives including customisation of softwareby me, I am able to present GPS logs, geotagged photographs and video taken, tothose I interact with and offer release forms so that the collected data can be usedfor the purposes of the study.

1.3 Foundation

I propose to refer to the following integrating framework to provide context for the casestudies in the broader scheme of climate change.

Relevance and impact of interventions in the context of an integrating framework

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Climate changeImpact on

human & naturalsystems

Socio-economicdevelpment

Emissions& concentrations

Temperature riseSea level risePrecipitation changeDroughts and floods

Greenhouse gasesAerosols

Food & water resourcesEcosystem & biodiversityHuman settlementsHuman health

Economic growthTechnologyPopulationGovernance

Climate change - an integrating framework

Adaptation

Adaptation

Mitigation

Adapted schematic and simplified representation of an integrated assessment frameworkfor considering anthropogenic climate change from the Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report.Summary for Policymakers. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.This summary was approved in detail at IPCC Plenary XVIII (Wembley, United Kingdom, 24-29September 2001) and represents the formally agreed statement of the IPCC concerning key findings anduncertainties contained in the Working Group contributions to the Third Assessment Report.

1.4 Climate variability and change guideline

As an example of a high level guideline on adapting to climate variability and change,USAID offers:

Step 1 – Screen for Vulnerability Vulnerability Screening is a preliminary assessmentof whether climate variability or change could compromise the integrity, effective-ness, or longevity of a project within the planning horizon for the project.

Step 2 – Identify adaptations Work with stakeholders to identify alternative designs ormanagement practices that may enable them to better cope with climate variabilityand change.The emphasis should be on finding measures that increase resilienceto climate change, but still make sense under the current climate.

Step 3 – Conduct analysis consequences of climate variability and change as well asthe effectiveness, costs, and feasibility of adaptations that can reduce vulnerabilityto climate variability and change.

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Step 4 – Select course of action Meet with stakeholders to review results of the analysis.Determine if changes in a current project design are required or if a proposedproject should feature new adaptations.

Step 5 – Implement adaptations Prepare an implementation plan identifying next steps,responsible staff and organisations, timeline, and resource needs required to incor-porate the climate change adaptations into the project.

Step 6 – Evaluate adaptations Evaluate the implementation of adaptations and theireffectiveness. Since many adaptations may be due to infrequent, extreme events orlong-term climate change, it may be difficult to evaluate effectiveness in a relativelyshort time period following implementation. But, at a minimum, an evaluationcan be done to see if the adaptations were put in place and whether there wereproblems or excessive costs associated with them.

The Indian Government’s efforts directed at agricultural climate change adaptationare being coordinated under an umbrella network project called the National Initiativeon Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). The objectives focus and provide resourcesfor the efforts of a large number of agricultural research institutions. They demonstratethat, at least in the context of Indian agriculture, there is a recognition that climate changeis already having an impact on Indian agriculture and long running efforts can helpin adaptation by mobilising existing state institutes and infrastructure. The first steps,involving Vulnerability Assessment were taken a couple of decades back by TERI andothers, and NICRA has revisited the monumental task of Vulnerability Assessment at adistrict scale. This exercise has been, or is likely to be soon, completed for six hundreddistricts. It is evident that the resolution of detail can be increased, for quite a while yet,and with this will arise an opportunity to better respond for adaptation in near real time;a requirement imposed by the failure of the monsoon, for example.

Having established vulnerability and sensitivity to climate change in the agriculturalcontext, response is key. NICRA proposes to demonstrate geographically specific, ac-counting for agro-meteo-ecological-socio-economic considerations, technology packagesand to enhance the resilience of Indian agriculture covering crops, livestock and fisheriesto climatic variability from better risk management. Capacity building of scientists isalso a stated objective.

The scale of the undertaking and its ambition necessitate treating the adoptedobjectives and proposed outcomes as the basis for any analysis of agricultural cli-mate change response in India. The package-response for adaptation approach is notunique to NICRA. Indeed, several Pusa institutes including the World AgroforestryCentre (ICRAF)1, Cereal System Initiative South Asia2 (CSISA), International Maizeand Wheat Improvement Center3 (CIMMYT), Stress-tolerant Rice for Africa and South

1http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/2http://www.ilri.org/csisa3http://www.cimmyt.org/

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Asia4 (STRASA), International Rice Research Institute5(IRRI) and International LivestockResearch Institute6 (ILRI) are conducting pilots. NICRA’s reach, through the existingand well established State Agricultural Universities-Krishi Vigyan Kendra interfaces issubstantial in comparison to the four ICRAF pilots.

1.5 NICRA technical programme

NICRA proposed Technical Programme covers seven themes7

1. Vulnerability Assessment of irrigated zones and crops, viz. rice, wheat, chickpea,adopting an approach using indicator, discussed below in their historical context,and simulation modelling and all 600 districts and 127 NARP zones utilisingindicators and mapping secondary data supplemented by primary data collectionfrom the districts

2. Comparative evaluation of farmers’ practice and real time contingency options, viz.crops, varieties, cropping systems and land management practices) at major rain-fed agro-ecological zones to be carried out by 23 ACRIPDA centres. Customisedagro advisories at the village level through the State Agricultural Universities-Krishi Vigyan Kendra (SAU-KVK) interface with real time feed back, are to be pilottested

3. Standardising high-throughput phenotyping for wheat, rice, maize, pigeon pea,tomato and mango and field screening of germplasm for climatic stresses includingdevelopment of transgenic varieties and identifying quantitative trait loci (QTL)for heat, drought and flood tolerance.

4. Soil, water and nutrient management and agro-forestry. The measurement ofGreenhouse Gases (GHG) and an exploration of the measured benefits of soilcarbon sequestration through biochar under rainfed and irrigated conditions.

5. Collection of historical data on pest and disease dynamics and real-time datafrom AICRP centres on rice, pigeon-pea, groundnut, mango and tomato. Theidentification of pest and disease hotspots, including the identification of insect,pest and pathogen shifts in response to climate change, the development of pestand disease forewarning models

6. Survey of livestock breeds and farming systems in relation to climate data. Nutri-tional studies in cattle. Collection of long term national weather and disease data.Survey of pig and poultry germplasm in relation to climate.

4http://strasa.org5http://www.irri.org/6http://www.ilri.org/7http://www.nicra-icar.in/nicrarevised/index.php/strategic-research/

technical-programme

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7. Analysis of climate data in relation to pisciculture production. The developmentof a methodology for impact of climate change on maturation of fish.

NICRA’s Vulnerability Assessment focuses on weather indicators and a few socio-economic indicators.

It is evident from the literature that concentration, biological, physical and economicindicators are considered important. It would be worthwhile to revisit what NICRA hasachieved in shedding light on the situational assessment outside their chosen indicatorsin the case studies.

To arrive at a situational assessment of the impact of climate change, changes haveto be measured over time. For illustration, a few incomplete tables from IPCC’s ThirdAssessment Report are reproduced below:

Indicator Observed changes

Concentration indicators

Atmospheric concentration of CO2 280 ppm from 1000 − 1750 to 368 ppm inthe year 2000, 31 ± 4% increase

Terrestrial biospheric CO2 exchange Cumulative source 30 GtC between 1800to in the year 2000; net sink 14 ± 7 GtC

Atmospheric concentration of CH4 700 ppb from 1000 − 1750 to 1750 ppb in2000, 151 ± 25% increase

Atmospheric concentration of N2O 270 ppb from 1000 − 1750 to 316 ppb inthe year 2000, 17 ± 5% increase

Tropospheric concentration of O3 Increased by 35± 15% from the years 1750to 2000, varies with region

Stratospheric concentration of O3 Decreased over the years 1970 to 2000,varies with altitude and latitude.

Atmospheric concentrations of HFCs,PFCs, and SF6

Increased globally over the last 50 years.

Twentieth-century changes in the Earth’s atmosphere

Indicator Observed changes

Weather indicators

Global mean surface temperature Increased by 0.6 ± 0.2◦ C over the 20thcentury; land areas warmed more thanthe oceans (very likelya)

Northern hemisphere surface tempera-ture

Increase over the 20th century greaterthan during any other century in the last1,000 years; 1990s warmest decade of themillennium (likely).

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Indicator Observed changes

Diurnal surface temperature range Decreased over the years 1950 to 2000over land: nighttime minimum temper-atures increased at twice the rate of day-time maximum temperatures (likely).

Hot days / heat index Increased (likely).Cold / frost days Decreased for nearly all land areas during

the 20th century (very likely).Continental precipitation Increased by 5 − 10% over the 20th cen-

tury in the Northern Hemisphere (verylikely), although decreased in some re-gions (e.g., north and west Africa andparts of the Mediterranean).

Heavy precipitation events Increased at mid- and high northern lati-tudes (likely).

Frequency and severity of drought Increased summer drying and associatedincidence of drought in a few areas (likely).In some regions, such as parts of Asiaand Africa, the frequency and intensity ofdroughts have been observed to increasein recent decades.

Biological and physical indicators

Global mean sea levelDuration of ice cover of rivers and lakesArctic sea-ice extent and thicknessNon-polar glaciers etc.

Economic indicators

Weather-related economic lossesaWhere appropriate, the authors of the Third Assessment Report assigned confidence levelsthat represent their collective judgement in the validity of a conclusion based on observationalevidence, modelling results, and theory that they have examined. The following words havebeen used throughout the text of the Synthesis Report to the TAR relating to WGI findings:virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a result is true); very likely (90 − 99% chance);likely (66 − 90% chance); medium likelihood (33 − 66% chance); unlikely (10 − 33% chance);very unlikely (1 − 10% chance); and exceptionally unlikely (less than 1% chance). An explicituncertainty range (±) is a likely range. Estimates of confidence relating to WG II findings are:very high (95% or greater), high (67-95%), medium (33 − 67%), low (5 − 33%), and very low (5%or less). No confidence levels were assigned in WG III.

Twentieth-century changes in the Earth’s climate and biophysical system.

Next, contributors to climate change are presented, for illustration,

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Greenhouse gas Global warming potential (GWP)

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1Methane (CH4) 23Nitrous oxide (N2O) 296Hydrofluorocabons (HFCs) from 12 to 12, 000a

Perflurocarbons (PFCs) from 5,000 to 12, 000a

Sulphur hexaflouride (SF6)

from Ramaswamy, V. et al. 2001. In Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y. Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van derLinden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C. A. (eds.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.a Range of values from different HFCs or PFCs. Moomaw, W. R., Moreira, J. R. et al. 2001.Technological and Economic Potential of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction. In Metz, B.,Davidson, O., Swart, R., Pan, J. (eds.) 2001. Climate change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution ofWorking Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 3 and its appendix.

Greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol and their global warming potentials(GWPs) on a mass basis relative to carbon dioxide and for a time horizon of 100 years.

Under NICRA, some effort is being made to evaluate Indian agriculture’s contribu-tion to climate change. Certain measuring instruments have been commissioned, fluxtowers, for example. These readings will not be representative by a large margin, as thenumber of such instruments across the country are in the digits.

Also, satellites operated by various consortia and Governments including the IndianGovernment are able to report surface temperature to an accuracy within some bounds.Occlusion by clouds and other factors necessitate ground-truthed data. Temperatureand rainfall data, at least at a district level resolution, is routinely collected by theMeteorological Department. It is known from several studies, including one by NCAERin 2005, that the benefits of weather forecasting, agro-met advisories and the like, thatare possible and improve as a consequence of higher resolution weather variable datacollection, are disproportionately high relative to cost.

For NICRA’s Vulnerability Assessment exercise, the following indicators were con-sidered:

Exposure

SensitivityImpact, Adaptive capacity Vulnerability

NICRA’s Components of vulnerability

1. Drought related

(a) Frequency of occurrence of meteorological drought (moderate and severe),

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(b) Number of dry spells during Kharif (June to October);

(c) Rainfall in June and July;

(d) Rainfall during December to April because of Western Disturbances whichhave impact on specific regions

2. Flood related number of events of rainfall of above 100mm in 3 consecutive days;to be linked to soil type and run-off

3. Heat wave As per IMD8 definition (number of days max. temperature exceedsnormal by X◦ C)

4. Cold wave As per IMD definition (number of days min. Temperature falls belownormal by X◦ C)

5. Frost number of nights with < 0◦ C

6. Extreme rainfall events Frequency of 95 and 99 percentile rainfall

7. Total rainfall

8. Number of rainy days

1.6 Sensitivity variables

1. Percent rainfed area (latest available)

2. Replenishable ground water levels

3. Crop sensitivity (to be obtained from simulation modelling and statistical analysis

4. Degraded land or trends in land use

5. Population density

6. Coast length

1.7 Adaptive capacity variables

1. Per capita income or per capita monthly expenditure (latest available)

2. Poverty incidence

3. Per capita non-agricultural GDP

4. Per cent of workers engaged in agriculture

5. Literacy

8India Meteorological Department

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6. SC/ST population

7. Average land holding size

1.8 Adaptation measures

Several organisations including ICRAF, Cereal System Initiative South Asia9 (CSISA)and the national and state extension machinery, including the Agricultural TechnologyManagement Agencies10 (ATMA), are proposing and undertaking adaptation measures.

A general list of measures is,

Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation

Water Resources

Protection of groundwater re-sources

Better use of recycled water

Improved management andmaintenance of existing watersupply systems

Conservation of water catchmentareas

Protection of water catchment ar-eas

Improved system of water man-agement

Improved water supply Water policy reform includingpricing and irrigation policies

Groundwater and rainwater har-vesting and desalination

Development of flood controlsand drought monitoring

Agriculture andfood security

Erosion control Development of toler-ant/resistant crops (to drought,salt, insect/pests)

Dam construction for irrigation Research and developmentChanges in fertiliser use and ap-plication

Soil-water management

Introduction of new crops Diversification and intensifica-tion of food and plantation crops

Soil fertility maintenance Policy measures, tax incen-tives/subsidies, free market

Changes in planting and harvest-ing times

Development of early warningsystems

Switch to different cultivarsEducational and outreach pro-grammes on conservation andmanagement of soil and water

Human health

Public health management re-form

Development of early warningsystem

Improved housing and living con-ditions

Better and/or improved dis-ease/vector surveillance andmonitoring

9http://www.ilri.org/csisa10http://vistar.nic.in/projects/revised_ATMA_Guidelines.pdf

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Vulnerable sectors Reactive adaptation Anticipatory adaptation

Improved emergency response Improvement of environmentalqualityChanges in urban and housing de-sign

Terrestrialecosystems

Improvement of management sys-tems including control of de-forestation, reforestation and af-forestation

Creation of parks/reserves, pro-tected areas and biodiversity cor-ridors policy

Promoting agro-forestry to im-prove forest goods and services

Identification/developmentof species resistant to climatechange

Development/improvement ofnational forest fire managementplans

Better assessment of the vulnera-bility of ecosystems

Improvement of carbon storagein forests

Monitoring of species

Development and maintenance ofseed banksIncluding socioeconomic factorsin management

Coastal zones andmarine ecosystems

Protection of economic infrastruc-ture

Integrated coastal zone manage-ment

Public awareness to enhance pro-tection of coastal and marineecosystems

Better coastal planning and zon-ing

Building sea walls and beach re-inforcement

Development of legislation forcoastal protection

Protection and conservation ofcoral reefs, mangroves, sea grassand littoral vegetation

Research and monitoring ofcoasts and coastal ecosystems

This table is from ‘National communications of non-Annex I Parties and UNFCCC Sixth com-pilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex Ito the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Addendum 5. Climate change impacts, adaptationmeasures and response strategies. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.Climate Change: Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in Developing Countries.’

2 Description of proposed tasks

• 8 good practices (4 through primary verification and 4 through desk review) onsuccessful climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector in India.

1. Review the status of stress tolerant crop research, cereals and pulses, andprogress on adoption through participatory seed selection and production inMadhya Pradesh, Bihar or Uttar Pradesh. Reach NICRA, CIMMYT, CSISA

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and STRASA to learn about research and leading NGOs such as Action for So-cial Advancement (ASA) in Madhya Pradesh and NEFORD in Uttar Pradesh;NICRA’s interventions involves “introducing drought/temperature tolerantvarieties, advancement of planting dates of rabi crops in areas with terminalheat stress, water saving paddy cultivation methods (SRI, aerobic, directseeding), frost management in horticulture through fumigation, communitynurseries for delayed monsoon, custom hiring centres for timely planting,location specific intercropping systems with high sustainable yield index”

2. Reach ILRI to learn about livestock related breeds and climate change adapta-tion interventions.

3. Review the status of Conservation Agriculture efforts including technol-ogy demonstrations by CSISA and others with an emphasis on localisedapproaches with pro-poor bias

4. Assess the status of the national coordinated response by NICRA who havecarried out Vulnerability Assessments in all districts and are carrying outtechnology demonstrations. Earlier, exposure and sensitivity were measured,by TERI, by a climate sensitivity index that measured dryness, that is droughtsensitivity, and monsoon dependence, that is average of extreme rainfallevents; adaptive capacity was measured by combining bio-physical, consist-ing of, soil depth, severity of soil degradation and annually replenishablegroundwater and extreme temperatures can be considered in addition, socio-economic, namely, human capital measured by literacy, alternative economicactivities and landless labourers, and technological factors, namely, the ratiobetween net irrigated area and net sown area, Infrastructure DevelopmentIndex, transport, energy, irrigation, banking, education and health, to which fi-nancial inclusion and risk mitigation through insurance can be added. NICRAassesses exposure as being drought related, that is, number and frequency ofdry spells, Karif and Rabi rainfall), flood related, occurrence of heat waves,cold waves, frost, extreme rainfall etc. Rainfed area, replenishable ground-water, crop sensitivity, degraded land, population density and coast lengthvariables are considered for sensitivity. Adaptive capacity is dependent onper capita income or expenditure, poverty incidence, workers engaged inagriculture, literacy, marginalised population and average land holding.

5. Assess the situation on the ground related to financial innovation includingweather based crop insurance with inputs from the Agriculture InsuranceCompany of India Limted (AIC) and the technical assistance partners includ-ing the World Bank and ICRISAT; Here too NICRA’s interventions include“strengthening or creating seed banks, fodder banks, commodity groups, cus-tom hiring centre, collective marketing, introduction of weather index basedinsurance and climate literacy through a village level weather station”

6. Reviewing in-situ moisture conservation, water harvesting and recycling forsupplemental irrigation, improved drainage in flood prone areas, conserva-

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tion tillage where appropriate, artificial ground water recharge and watersaving irrigation methods

7. Weather forecasting and advisories in Tamil Nadu, for example, where thestate has invested in their own infrastructure

8. Promising technologies and approaches (CRIDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT)

• Develop a template for developing such good practices into case studies based onthis proposal and information from relevant past and further interactions

• Liaising with various agencies identified above, including national and stateGovernments, ICAR, agricultural universities, civil society, and other scientificorganisations to identify and recommend such practices.

• Identify and capture 4 case studies through field verification and consultation withvarious stakeholders.

• Identify and capture 4 case studies through detailed desk review by assessingthe current status/ overview/ situation analysis of climate change adaptation inagriculture sector in India (macro, micro and meso levels).

• These case studies could be preceded by a brief critical review of key interventions/programmes / institutions/ agencies operating in the agriculture sector; keybarriers and challenges for the climate change adaptation in agriculture sector.

• Prepare a compendium of 8 case studies (4 through primary verification and 4through desk review) on good practices in Climate Change Adaptation in theIndian context.

Based on the above, I propose four field trips to

1. Tamil Nadu to assess the efficacy of better meteo forecasts and the State’s responseto Climate Change

2. Hyderabad to visit CRIDA to learn more about NICRA, and ICRISAT to learnabout emerging technologies and approaches

3. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh to gain insight and assess the progress madeby civil society and established NGOs.

There are several macro questions that remain unanswered such as, if anyone is at-tempting carbon accounting and with what success? Carbon accounting is necessarilyapproximate, usually done in the agricultural context, by reference to controlled fieldexperiments. It is critical for claiming carbon credits, however.

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3 Glossary

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially byclimate related stimuli. This encompasses all elements of climate change, includingmean climate change characteristics, climate variability and the frequency andmagnitude of extremes. This may be direct, e.g. a change in crop yield due to achange in the mean, range or variability of temperature or indirect, e.g. the damagecaused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise.

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, variability andextremes, to moderate potential damage to take advantage of opportunities or tocope with the consequences.

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to copewith, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate changeand also the extent to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptivecapacity

References

[Grimshaw(2004)] Anna Grimshaw, editor. Visualizing Anthropology. Intellect Ltd,Bristol, UK, 2004. ISBN 9781841509099.

[Heider(2006)] Karl G. Heider. Ethnographic Film (Revised Edition). University of TexasPress, Austin, TX, USA, 2006. ISBN 9780292795655.

[Jong and Austin(2008)] Wilma de Jong and Thomas Austin. Rethinking Documentary:New Perspectives and Practices. McGraw-Hill Education, Berkshire, UK, 2008. ISBN9780335236275.

[Lindenmuth(2010)] Kevin Lindenmuth. Documentary Moviemaking Course. A & C Black,Huntingdon, UK, 2010. ISBN 9781408144770.

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