cbrfc% january%2015% water%supply%webinar% › present › 2015 › wsupjan15.pdf · 5 brief...
TRANSCRIPT
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CBRFC January 2015
Water Supply Webinar
January 8, 2015
Greg Smith
These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php
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Water Supply Webinars
• Focus on the forecast drivers – Basin condiIons, model states, future weather
• Provide the big picture view of runoff expectaIons • Highlight the unique and out of the ordinary • Opportunity to provide insight into our forecast process
– Data interpretaIon, climate issues, new technology, etc.
• ConInue to modify webinars to meet needs and be informaIve – UC webinar and Great Basin webinar?
5 brief webinar survey questions at the end
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January Water Supply Webinar
• Fall / winter weather • Current condiIons driving the forecasts
– Soil Moisture, Snow CondiIons
• Water supply forecasts • Insight: SNOTEL ElevaIon vs Flow ContribuIon • Upcoming weather (short and long term)
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Late Summer / Fall Precipitation
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Fall Precipitation
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Model Soil Moisture Entering Winter
How will this affect water supply forecasts? Positive:
Green above Fontenelle Colorado above Kremmling Uinta Range (Bear, Provo, Duchesne) Parts of Yampa, White, Gunnison
Negative:
Northern Great Basin (Weber, Provo) Sevier San Juan Virgin Lower Colorado Basins
A B O V E
B E L O W
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December 2014 Weather
NOAA / NASA
Mild temperatures – December ended up warmer than average Moist and mild air mass – Pacific/Sub-Tropical source Precipitation varied but generally near to above average Arctic air arrived to end the month – Low elevation snow
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December / Water-Year Precipitation
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January 6th Snow
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Snow Groups
Jan 6
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Soil Moisture & Snow - Initial Conditions Driving the Forecasts
Model Soil Moisture Model Snow
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Soil Moisture and Snow – Where are the signals the same ?
Model Soil Moisture Model Snow
Above Average
Below Average
Above Average
Below Average
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January 1st Water Supply Forecasts Apr-‐Jul Volumes / % Average – (50% exceedance forecasts)
Flaming Gorge: 1000 KAF / 102%
Navajo Res: 450 KAF / 61%
Blue Mesa: 690 KAF / 102%
Colorado-‐Cameo: 2500 KAF / 106%
Yampa-‐Deerlodge: 1200 KAF / 97%
McPhee Res: 255 KAF / 86%
Lake Powell: 6500 KAF / 91%
Weber-‐Oakley: 107 KAF / 91%
Virgin-‐Virgin: 28 KAF / 43%
Provo-‐Woodland: 97 KAF / 97%
Bear-‐UT/WY Stateline: 117 KAF / 105%
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January 1st Water Supply Forecasts Jan-‐May Volumes / % Median
Salt -‐ Roosevelt: 250 KAF / 81%
Verde-‐Horseshoe: 150 KAF / 96%
Gila-‐Gila: 48 KAF / 86%
Li`le Colorado-‐Lyman: 6.5 KAF / 92%
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10 % 30% 50% 70% 90%
Jan 1st Official Forecast
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
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SNOTEL ElevaIons vs. Flow ContribuIon
Crystal – Redstone Modeled basin is broken into three elevation zones with stats as follows:
Elevadon Band % Total Area
% Flow Contribudon
11,000’ – 13,000’ 33.5% 56%
9500’ – 11,000’ 33.5% 33%
7100’ – 9500’ 33% 11%
à More than half of the flow comes from elevations above the highest SNOTEL station.
Roaring Fork – Glenwood Springs
Crystal – Redstone, nr
Roaring Fork – Aspen, nr
Hunter Ck – Aspen, nr
Frying Pan – Thomasville, nr Frying Pan – Ruedi, nr
McClure Pass 9500’
North Lost Trail 9200’
Schofield Pass 10,700’
Independence Pass 10,600’
Nast Lake 8700’
Kiln 9600’
Model River Point SNOTEL Site
Roaring Fork River Basin
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SNOTEL ElevaIons vs. Flow ContribuIon Colorado River Basin SNOTEL Sites within the state of Colorado
Colorado River Basin within Colorado Modeled basin breakdown is as follows:
Elevadon Band % Total Area
% Flow Contribudon (esdmated)
% SNOTEL sites within band
>11,000’ 16% 36% 16%
9500’ – 11,000’ 31% 41% 58%
<9500’ 53% 23% 26%
à There are no SNOTELS above 11,600’, so the highest area is poorly represented.
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Future Weather: Strong ridge of high pressure over the area keeping conditions dry Weak quick hitting storm system possible early next week Long Range Meteorological Model Ensembles: (Lower Confidence)
Suggest a brief return to ridge conditions / dry later next week Possibly more active weather by around the 20th of January
As of 1/7/2015
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Quandtadve Precipitadon Forecast Weather PredicIon Center
5 Day Total January 8-‐13
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
7 Day Total January 8-‐15
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The prospect for El Nino: A 50-60% chance for next 2 months then neutral conditions thereafter.
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Long Term Precipitadon Outlook Climate PredicIon Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
January 2015 January-‐March 2015
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Spring Temperature Outlook Climate PredicIon Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
January 2015 January-‐March 2015
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A mass of information – Where to find it ?
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www.cbrfc.noaa.gov
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2015 Forecast Webinar Schedule
February 5 at 1 pm MT March 5 at 11 a1 pm MT April 7 at 11am MT May 7 at 11am MDT Registration available: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/news/wswebinar2015.html
Feedback Is Appreciated
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• Key Water Supply Contacts: – Michelle Stokes (Hydrologist in Charge) – Brenda Alcorn (Upper Colorado) – Ashley Nielson (Green + Yampa / White) – Greg Smith (San Juan + Gunnison + Dolores) – Paul Miller (Great Basin – Bear, Weber, Provo, Six-‐Creeks/Jordan) – Tracy Cox (Lower Colorado + Virgin + Sevier)
Please contact us with any specific quesdons