cbre dc state of the market mid-year 2011 presentation

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  • 8/6/2019 CBRE DC State of the Market Mid-Year 2011 Presentation

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    CBRE State of the Market:

    Second Quarter Washington, DC Regional

    Office Market Statistics

    June 30, 2011

  • 8/6/2019 CBRE DC State of the Market Mid-Year 2011 Presentation

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    Second uarter 2011

    Agenda

    Introduction

    Overview of Washin ton DC Re ion

    In-depth Analysis of Quarter

    Northern Vir inia Washington, DC

    Suburban Maryland

    National Overview and Outlook Questions

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 2

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    Second uarter 2011

    Introduction

    Speakers

    Liz Wainger, Moderator

    John Germano, Executive Managing Director ar anne wear ngen, esearc anager

    Jon Southard, Principal and Director of Forecasting,

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 3

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    Washington Metropolitan

    Second Quarter 2011

  • 8/6/2019 CBRE DC State of the Market Mid-Year 2011 Presentation

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    Second Quarter 2011

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    Second uarter 2011

    Historical DeliveriesNorthern Virginia

    2009200820072006

    2010

    6.1M SF . 5.5M SF . 313K SF

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 6

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    Second uarter 2011

    DevelopmentNorthern Virginia

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 7

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    Second uarter 2011

    Historical Vacancy RatesNorthern Virginia

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 8

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    Second uarter 2011

    Northern Virginia Historical Trends

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 9

    , ,

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    ,Second Quarter 2011

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    Second uarter 2011

    DevelopmentWashington, DC

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 12

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    Second uarter 2011

    Historical Vacancy RatesWashington, DC

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 13

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    Second Quarter 2011

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    Second uarter 2011

    Suburban Maryland Historical Deliveries

    200920082007

    2010

    . . .

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 16

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    Second uarter 2011

    DevelopmentSuburban Maryland

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 17

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    Second uarter 2011

    Suburban Maryland Historical Vacancy Rates

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 18

    Hi i l T d

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    Second uarter 2011

    Suburban Maryland Historical Trends

    10-Year Average Net Absorption: 256,364 SF

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 19

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    The Economy And the National

    DC Advantage Starts with Employment

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    Second uarter 2011

    DC Advantage Starts with Employment

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 21

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    Office Market Healing Nationally

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    Second uarter 2011

    Office Market Healing Nationally

    24150Completions, Net Absorption, msf Vacancy, %

    Forecast

    20100

    120

    8-50

    0

    4

    -150

    -100

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    Completions (L) Net Absorption (L) Vacancy (R)

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 23

    Source: CBRE EA Office Outlook, Summer 2011.

    Pricing Power Will Begin to Shift But Slowly

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    Second uarter 2011

    Pricing Power Will Begin to Shift, But Slowly

    2115Rent Inflation, % Vacancy, %

    Forecast

    1810

    12

    15

    0

    5

    9-5

    6-10

    3-15

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    Rent Inflation Vacancy (R)

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 24

    Source: CBRE EA Office Outlook, Summer 2011.

    Industrial Availability Keeps Dropping

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    Second uarter 2011

    Industrial Availability Keeps Dropping

    18150

    Net Absorption, Completions (msf) Availability Rate (%)

    Forecast

    12

    15100

    9

    0

    3-50

    0-100

    200

    0.

    1

    200

    1.

    2

    200

    2.

    3

    200

    3.

    4

    200

    5.

    1

    200

    6.

    2

    200

    7.

    3

    200

    8.

    4

    201

    0.

    1

    201

    1.

    2

    201

    2.

    3

    201

    3.

    4

    Completions (L) Net Absorption (L) Availability Rate (R)

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 25

    Source: CBRE EA Industrial Outlook, Summer 2011.

    Lower Availability Will Start to Drive Rent Growth

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    Second uarter 2011

    Lower Availability Will Start to Drive Rent Growth

    1812

    Annual % in TW Warehouse

    Rent Index Availability Rate (%)

    158

    orecast

    90

    3

    6

    -8

    -4

    0-12

    990

    991

    992

    993

    994

    995

    996

    997

    998

    999

    000

    001

    002

    003

    004

    005

    006

    007

    008

    009

    010

    011

    012

    013

    014

    015

    016

    1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

    Rent Growth (L) Availability Rate (R ) LT Availability Average

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 26

    Source: CBRE EA Industrial Outlook, Summer 2011.

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    Second uarter 2011

    Questions?

    CB Richard Ellis | Page 27