causal reasoning & reasoning through analogy. causal reasoning expressing or indicating cause...
TRANSCRIPT
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Causal Reasoning&
Reasoning Through Analogy
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Causal Reasoning• Expressing or indicating cause• Establishing a cause and effect relationship
between two different things• “…you must show that one actually causes the
other.”
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Cause and Effect?• The facts:
• More than 98 percent of convicted felons are bread users
• More than 90 percent of violent crimes are committed within 24 hours of eating bread
• Bread has been proven to be addictive. Subjects deprived of bread and given only water begged for bread after as little as two days
• The conclusion:• Abuse of bread is the cause of most crimes
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Good Use of Causal Reasoning?
NO!!!
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Correct Use Causal Reasoning• Distinguish between cause-and-effect and
correlations• Bread abuse correlates to crime• Break abuse does not cause crime
• Text Examples• Arguing for increased equipment and maintenance of
regulations for commercial airlines in order to reduce airline accidents • Must prove that faulty equipment and maintenance
causes airline accidents• New equipment and regulations must cause a decrease
in airline accidents• Social IQ is important to business success
• “Look at those who’ve made it in business: Jack Welch, Bob Lutz, Geoff Bible, and Oprah Winfrey. They all are outstanding communicators.”
• “Now, how about those who never really reached their potential in business: John Akers, Chris Steffen, Bill Agee and Jim Robinson? All good people but they all have communication deficits.”
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Tests for Causal Reasoning• “You must show that the cause is sufficient to
produce the effect.”• Text Example
• Crime rate went down in your city six months after hiring a new police chief• Are there specific policies the chief
implements that can be shown to directly affect the rate?
• Were there programs in place before the chief was hired that also had an effect?
• Did the particular changes the new chief implements affect the types of crimes that declined?
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Alternative Causes• “…other causes might also produce the same effect…
you must rule out all other causes.”• Text Example
• Improved Grades in School• Better study habits• Better teachers• Better books• Better learning resources
• Must be able to identify the controlled aspects of a scenario
• Bread Example• Endless alternative causes
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Superstitions• Correlations can often create superstitions• Example
• Black cat crosses your path• Your boss calls you to inform you that you have been fired• Correlation or Cause?• Alternative Causes?
• Example• You lost your lucky pencil• You fail your math test the next day• Correlation or Cause?• Alternative Causes?
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Analogy• inference that if two or more things agree with
one another in some respect they will probably agree in others
• “…an extended comparison.”• an extended metaphor• “It’s a way to explain something the members of
an audience don’t understand in terms of something they do understand.”
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The 25 Funnies Analogies (Collected by High School English Teachers)
• He spoke with the wisdom that can only come from experience, like a guy who went blind because he looked at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it and now goes around the country speaking at high schools about the dangers of looking at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it.
• He was as tall as a six-foot, three-inch tree.• The revelation that his marriage of 30 years had disintegrated
because of his wife’s infidelity came as a rude shock, like a surcharge at a formerly surcharge-free ATM machine.
• McBride fell 12 stories, hitting the pavement like a Hefty bag filled with vegetable soup.
• Her hair glistened in the rain like a nose hair after a sneeze.• Even in his last years, Granddad had a mind like a steel trap,
only one that had been left out so long it had rusted shut.• The young fighter had a hungry look, the kind you get from not
eating for a while.
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Let’s Utilize Reasoning by Analogy!
• He was as tall as a six-foot, three-inch tree.• He was as tall as a tree, therefore he must be as strong as a
tree• McBride fell 12 stories, hitting the pavement like a Hefty bag
filled with vegetable soup.• McBride hit “like” a Hefty bag, therefore he/she must weigh
as much as a Hefty bag
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Good Reasoning by Analogy?
NO!!!
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Correct Use of Analogies• Can be either figurative or literal
• abstract or concrete• Main Rule
• both scenarios or examples must correlate in all aspects
• Text Examples• arguing for a change in a school lunch-hour policy
based on a successful open lunch-hour policy at another school• Same size?• Same access to restaurants?• Both rural/urban?
• successful football coach uses same techniques with a new football team• Size• Talent• Basic Skills
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Try This Analogy!• Scenario
• no drinking age in Europe• lower alcohol-related fatalities in Europe than
America• American drinking age should be eliminated!!!
• Test for Reasoning by Analogy• Similar in all major respects• All aspects that influence conclusion must be
similar• Problems with Analogy
• difference in attitudes towards alcohol assumption
• different history with alcohol• maturity level of teenagers• more American teenagers driving
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Let’s Review!• What is the difference between a cause and a
correlation?• A cause directly results in the effect. A
correlation occurs at the same time as the effect but does not directly influence it.
• What are the two types of analogies?• Figurative and Literal
• What are multiple causes that could all result in the same effect?• Alternative Causes
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Congratulations!
• You have mastered causal reasoning because Kasey taught it to you!*
• You have mastered reasoning by analogy like Roger Federer has mastered tennis!*
* Incorrect usage of causal reasoning and reasoning by analogy.