Greenpeace BrazilRua Alvarenga, 2.331, São Paulo, SP, BrasilCEP 05509-006Tel. + 55 11 3035-1155

www.greenpeace.org.br

For more information www.greenpeace.org.br/clima

Catálogo Capa Inglês 10/31/06 3:48 PM Page 2

Associação Civil Greenpeace

board

presidentFernando Furriela

membersEduardo M. EhlersMarcelo SodréMarcelo TakaokaPedro JacobiPedro LeitãoSamyra Crespo

executive-director Frank Guggenheim

campaign directorMarcelo Furtado

Amazon campaign directorPaulo Adário

communications directorGladis Éboli

marketing directorClélia Maury

public policy directorSergio Leitão

Changes in Climate, Changes in LivesHow global warming already affectsBrazil

coordinatorCarlos Rittl

editorGabriela Michelotti

picture editor Caroline Donatti

writerRoberto Villar Belmonte

chiefs of research Carlos Rittl e Guilherme Leonardi

translatorRick Alan Harder

text revisorMark Lutes and Marcelo Furtado

supervisorMarcelo Furtado

designPrata Designwww.pratadesign.com.br

photo credits Daniel BeltráRodrigo Baleia©NasaFlávio CannalongaGilvan BarretoAlberto César

published by Greenpeace Brazil

august/2006

* CREDITS

Antônio Donato Nobre – INPA

Arnaldo Carneiro Filho – INPA

Carlos Afonso Nobre – INPE

Claudio Freitas Neves – UFRJ

David Man Wai Zee – Unigranrio and UERJ

Dieter Muehe – UFRJ

Emerson Vieira Marcelino – UNICAMP

Enéas Salatti – FBDS

Francisco Eliseu Aquino – UFRGS

Helenice Vital – UFRN

Ione Rodrigues Diniz de Morais – UFRN-CERES

Isabela Pena Viana de Oliveira Marcelino –UNICAMP

Jeffeson Cárdia Simões – UFRGS

João Bosco Senra – MMA/SRH

Jochen Shöngart – INPA/Max Planck Institute for Liminology

José Antonio Marengo Orsini – INPE

José Goldemberg – State of São Paulo Government/Environment Secretary

Joseph Harari – USP

Luiz Pinguelli Rosa – Brazilian Forum on Climate Change

Márcio de Morisson Valeriano – INPE

Naziano Pantoja Filizola Filho – UFAM

Nelson Luiz Sambaqui Gruber – UFRGS

Paulo Artaxo – USP

Paulo Moutinho – IPAM

Paulo Roberto Martini – INPE

Philip Fearnside – INPA

Reinaldo Antonio Petta – UFRN

Roberto Verdum – UFRGS

Sérgio Besserman Vianna – Pereira Passos City Planning Municipal Institute

Ulisses Eugenio Cavalcanti Confalonieri – FIOCRUZ

Agrarian Reform Technician Cooperative (Rio Grande do Sul)

Agriculture Federation of Rio Grande do Sul – FARSUL RS

Amazon Institute for Environmental Research – IPAM (Belém/PA)

Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development – FBDS (Rio de Janeiro/RJ)

Federation of Agriculture of Santa Catarina – FAESC (SC)

Alternative Community Projects Support Service – SEAPAC (Caicó/RN)

Alternative NGOs and Rural Workers Support and Advisory Center – CAATINGA (Ouricuri/RN)

Basis Christian Association – ACB (Crato/CE)

Brazilian Fórum on Climate Change

Brazilian Semiarid Joint Endeavor – ASA

Civil Defense – RS

Federal University of Amazonas – UFAM (Manaus/AM)

Federal University of Rio de Janeiro – UFRJ (Rio de Janeiro/RJ)

Friends of the Earth Brazil – NAT (Porto Alegre/RS)

Ibirapuitã Small Producers Association (Santana do Livramento/RS)

Lago do Rei Community Association (Careiro da Várzea/AM)

Landless Rural Workers Movement – MST (Rio Grande do Sul)

Ministry of Environment – MMA

Moã Foundation (Santa Maria/RS)

National Institute for Amazonian Research – INPA (Manaus/AM)

National Institute for Space Research – INPE (São José dos Campos/SP)

Natural Environment Protection Union – UPAN (São Leopoldo/RS)

Nature Defense Pernambucan Association – ASPAN (Pernambuco/PE)

Rio de Janeiro State University – UERJ (Rio de Janeiro/RJ)

Nova Esperança Cooperative (Santana do Livramento/RS)

Roessler Movement (Novo Hamburgo/RS)

Santana do Livramento Rural Union (Santana do Livramento/RS)

Seridó Development Agency – ADESE (Caicó/RN)

Tefé Fishermen Cooperative (Tefé/AM)

Small Farmers Movement – MPA (Rio Grande do Sul)

Terra Sul Agroecology Group (Santa Maria/RS)

Union of Community Associations from Countryside of Canguçu – UNAIC (Canguçu/RS)

University of Grande Rio – UNIGRANRIO (Rio de Janeiro/RJ)

* AKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Catálogo Capa Inglês 10/31/06 3:48 PM Page 4

SUMMARY

PREFACE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1 - CLIMATE CHANGE

CHAPTER 2 - REGIONAL IMPACTSThe AmazonSemi-aridThe coastal zoneThe southern region AgricultureWater resources Big citiesPublic health

CHAPTER 3 - FUTURE SCENARIOS

CHAPTER 4 - SOLUTIONS AND DEMANDS

REFERENCES

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The basic issue in the reaction of any society to globalclimate change is the decision about the best combinationof the only three possible responses: inaction, whichmeans accepting the damages predicted from climatechange; adaptation, which consists of promoting modifica-tions that allow reducing losses, even with changes in cli-mate; and lastly, avoiding, even if only partially, climatechange. The debate about climate change in Brazil is char-acterized by a lack of a comprehensive and objectiveapproach to all of the aspects of the problem. The notableexception is the work related to the impacts of climatechange coordinated by Dr. Carlos Nobre in 2004 and pub-lished by the Centre for Strategic Management and Studies(CGEE) of the Office of Strategic Issues of the Presidency ofthe Republic.

The conclusion of this study is cause for concern. To agreat extent it is not possible for Brazil to adapt to globalclimate change – the impacts will be in general negative.

It is necessary therefore to make efforts to avoid it,which in our case does not generally mean sacrificing ourindustrial competitiveness, but rather new opportunitiesassociated with the use of renewable biomass, along with,of course, taking more effective measures regarding de-forestation of the Amazon.

Although Amazonian deforestation is responsible foraround 2% of global climate change, it represents approxi-mately 75% of Brazil’s contribution. The lack of governancein the region permits the destruction of this treasure of bio-diversity and source of water for our crops. The Amazon isboth victim and villain of climate change.

It is essential to transform individuals into conscien-tious and active citizens, and mobilize the population todemand effective policies to combat global warming.

This work of Greenpeace is very important in this regard,because it seeks to expand the understanding of Braziliansconcerning the urgent challenges presented by globalwarming, its principal causes and the forecasts of the scien-tific community about the future we will have to face.

PREFACE

Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho, Visitor Professor at the

University of Sao Paulo, Brazil

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The Brazilian government has stated in international negotiations that the

country is doing its part in relation to climate change and global warning. The

truth is we do very little to effectively reduce deforestation of the largest trop-

ical forest in the world. We invest very little in renewable energy sources or in

vulnerability studies or adaptation plans with respect to climate changes.

Although Brazil boasts a privileged position in relation to its renewable energy poten-

tial, its high rate of deforestation and burning in the Amazon rainforest releases so

much carbon into the air that it has earned fourth place in the world in terms of nation-

al greenhouse gas emissions.

In the last century the temperature of the planet rose 0.7° C and in the next one hun-

dred years it could reach between 1.4° C and 5.8° C, depending on what measures will

have been taken to limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations. More rigid restrictions on

emissions will have to be negotiated and acted upon in the second phase of the Kyoto

Protocol, after 2012.

If emissions were stabilized at current

levels, the temperature would continue to

rise for dozens of years. A huge effort on the

part of industrial nations, the greatest pol-

luters, will have to be taken. Developing

countries like Brazil will also have to assume

their responsibilities. These countries must

grow following the “Decarbonization path”,

proposed by the Climate Action Network

(CAN), that states that first developing countries must reduce the rate of growth of their

emissions, so that they can peak and start reducing sooner. Despite that, Brazil could

start reducing its emissions fairly easily, by substantially reducing deforestation.

If Brazil really wants to do its part, instead of so avidly stimulating the advance of

agro-business, which has been destroying the Amazon forest at a startling rate, it

should begin giving priority to a national policy of conservation of the largest tropical

forest in the world. Besides this, it would need to make a sincere effort to develop a

clean and renewable energy matrix and carry out research to pinpoint regional and sec-

tional vulnerabilities. It is necessary to propose plans concerning adaptation to the

risks and mitigation of the causes of climate changes. Brazil urgently needs to create a

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

BECAUSE OF THE LONG DELAY BETWEEN EMISSIONS

AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WARMING, THE EMISSIONS

REDUCTIONS MUST TAKE PLACE LONG BEFORE WE

REACH 2° C WARMING. AFTER THIS THRESHOLD

SCIENTISTS PREDICT CATASTROPHIC SCENARIOS WITH

DEVASTATING EFFECTS IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE

GLOBE, INCLUDING THE AMAZON RAINFOREST, THE

SOUTHERN REGION AND OTHER PLACES IN BRAZIL

National Climate Change Policy, which would include all the areas mentioned above.

In Brazil global warming is still considered more of a business opportunity than a

real and present risk to the more vulnerable poor communities in the countryside, in

urban areas, in the caatinga (Brazilian semi-arid biome), and in the middle of the

Amazon. The Clean Development Mechanism, an instrument by the Kyoto Protocol, is an

important incentive for environmental projects which withdraw gases such as CO2 and

methane from the atmosphere, but it alone is insufficient to reverse the problem.

We need to reach these goals long before we reach the 2° C warming. After this

threshold scientists predict catastrophic scenarios with devastating effects in various

regions of the globe, including the Amazon rainforest and other places in Brazil. We

have very little time and much to do. Only with the conscientiousness of all, govern-

ments, industries and citizens, will we be able to beat that which is already being con-

sidered the greatest challenge of our era.

To show the Brazilian government and society at

large the seriousness of the situation, Greenpeace

traveled throughout Brazil from north to south to doc-

ument the impact of global warming and the principal

regional vulnerabilities. Dozens of victims of extreme

climate phenomena were interviewed, as well as sci-

entists who study the causes and consequences of

the increase in global temperature.

These reports and an extensive survey of recent

scientific papers are the basis of this report. The

objective of this publication is to mobilize Brazilian society to confront the principal

environmental problem of the 21st century with immediate and effective actions both

within Brazil and beyond. Chapter 1 describes the climate changes taking place on the

planet and the evidence that they are occurring. The extreme events which Brazil has

already experienced are reported in chapter 2. This climate expedition begins in the

Amazon, which is vulnerable to deforestation and global warming. It then passes

through the semi-arid Northeast, which is undergoing an intense process of desertifica-

tion. Then the expedition follows the coastal zone, vulnerable to severe storms and ris-

ing sea levels. It finally reaches the southern region, where droughts have been causing

great damage to agriculture and where the first hurricane ever reported in the South

Atlantic came ashore. Potential impacts on health, water resources, large cities and

agriculture are also shown. Chapter 3 describes future scenarios and explains the seri-

ousness of the situation. In chapter 4 Greenpeace presents demands and potential

solutions that can be adopted by governments, the private sector, civil society and by

each one of us as citizens, to enable us to overcome the greatest challenge of our times.

6

THE EXTREME EVENTS WHICH BRAZIL HAS ALREADY

EXPERIENCED INCLUDE SEVERE DROUGHTS IN THE

AMAZON RAINFOREST, WHICH IS VULNERABLE TO

DEFORESTATION AND GLOBAL WARMING, AND THE

UNDERGOING INTENSE PROCESS OF DESERTIFICATION

IN THE SEMI-ARID NORTHEAST. IN THE SOUTHERN

REGION, A FIRST HURRICANE EVER REPORTED IN THE

SOUTH ATLANTIC CAME ASHORE.

PROOF OF GLOBAL WARMING

*2005 was the hottest year since1880,when scientists began registering

temperature. The last decade was also thehottest. The carbon concentration in theatmosphere reached 378.9 parts per million(ppm). Before the industrial era theconcentration was 280 ppm. Also during 2005 the Amazon faced the worst droughtever experienced.

*28 tropical storms raged in the AtlanticOcean in 2005. 15 of them were

hurricanes. Three of these were in the 5th

category. A study published in 2006 by twoscientists of the Atmospheric ResearchNational Centre of the United States provedthat hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in August of 2005, as well asother intense climate events are linked toglobal warming.

*The glaciers which have melted in recentyears will raise the average sea level 30

cm to 80 cm in the next 50 to 80 years. In theAndes, the glaciers lost between 20% and 30%of their total area in the last 40 years. In theAntarctica, 14 thousand km2 of ice were lost inthe last 12 years.

*Between 1950 and 1993 the minimum airtemperatures measured daily by night rose

on average 0.2° C per decade on the planet. Inthe southern part of Brazil there was anincrease of 1.4° C in the minimum annualtemperature between 1913 and 1998 as wellas a rise in heat waves, in more intenserainfalls and in annual rain precipitation whichgrew, during the last 50 years, 6.2 mm peryear at an average rate.

*In the last two decades oceanictemperature rise has been causing coral

bleaching on a global scale, putting them atrisk. The temperature in the tropics has risenaround 1° C in the last 100 years, forcing thecoral to live very close to its thermal limit.

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CHAPTER 1* Climate Change

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IN THE LAST 100 YEARS THE EARTH BECAME 0.7° C WARMER.IF ALL HUMAN EMISSIONS STOPPED NOW, TEMPERATUREWOULD RISE ANOTHER 0.6° C BECAUSE OF EMISSIONSALREADY IN THE ATMOSPHERE – MEANING WE ARE ALREADYCOMMITTED TO AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM OF 1.3° C RISE ABOVEPRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS. YET, GLOBAL EMISSIONS ARECONTINUING TO INCREASE. IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO,THE TEMPERATURE COULD RISE 5.4° C EVEN BEFORE THEEND OF THE CENTURY. GLOBAL WARMING IS ALREADYTHREATENING A RANGE OF ECOSYSTEMS LIKE CORAL REEFSAND FORESTS.

*

The warming of the planet is the greatest environmentalchallenge of the 21st century. Average global temperaturehas already risen 0.7° C in the last 100 years. Scientistsreport that the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and theburning of tropical forests like the Amazon are the principalcauses of this phenomenon, which could increase and putall life on planet Earth at risk in coming decades.

For billions of years the presence in the atmosphere ofwater vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),nitrous oxide (N20), and some other gases resulted in thegreenhouse effect, a natural phenomenon which warmedthe earth to a temperature suitable for the emergence of life

on earth. These greenhousegases absorb part of theenergy of the sun which isreflected by the surface ofthe planet, and this energy isdistributed in the form ofheat by atmospheric andoceanic circulation. Part ofthe energy is radiated again

into space. Any factor which alters this process affects glob-al climate. With increasing emissions of greenhouse gases,mainly over the last 150 years, more heat began to beretained. This occurs when people burn more and more fos-sil fuels and destroy the forests. But how can scientists beso sure that these are the factors which are changing theclimate on Earth?

Because of the circulation of air, snowfall in both theArctic and Antarctic regions registers the coldest andwarmest years, as well as the atmospheric concentrationsof various gases from different geological periods. “ What we

SOME SPECIES DEFINED AS“CRITICALLY THREATENED”WILL BE EXTINCT WITHINTHE NEXT DECADES ANDTHE “THREATENED ORVULNERABLE” WILLBECOME EVEN MORE RARE

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CLIMATE CHANGEGlobal warming and sea level rise will cause anincrease in the number of extreme climate events

12

have today in the Antarctic is a recording of 650 thousandyears of the Earth’s climate history with high resolution”,explains scientist Franciso Eliseu Aquino, of the Antarcticand Climate Research Centre of the Federal University of RioGrande do Sul (UFRGS).

Based on this evidence, scientists have concluded thatthe increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere isresponsible for the current warming of the planet. Carbondioxide concentrations in the atmosphere jumped from 288parts per million (ppm) in the pre-industrial period to 378.9ppm in 2005 (Schein, 2006).

Even scientists from the greatest emitter in the world,the United States, are convinced that we are responsible for

the problem. A study presented to the American Academyfor the Advancement of Science in 2005 demonstrated con-clusively that the rise of ocean temperatures is due to emis-sions from human activities (Barnett et al., 2001).

This study was a landmark in the climate change debatein the United States, refuting the arguments of skepticsagainst human responsibility for global warming.

Preliminary results of the 4th Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whichwill be released in 2007, leave no doubt that humans areresponsible for the accelerated rate of global warming (TheIndependent, 2006). They indicate that the situation of theplanet is much more critical than had been imagined. We

DISASTERS CAUSE MORE VICTIMS AND ECONOMIC LOSSES

More heat also means more energy for tropical storms, hurricanes and other extreme climate events.According to climatologist Carlos Nobre, from INPE, some studies show that the intensity of hurricanes,typhoons and tropical cyclones has been increasing over the last 30 years. The cause is attributed to risingsea surface temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean which has warmed 0.5°C over the last 40 years.In 2005, 360 natural disasters occurred - an increase of 18% over the previous year. The number of people

affected also grew to 157 million, 7 million more than in 2004. Between 1980 and 1984, 550 million peoplewere affected. In the period of 2000 to 2004 this number rose to 1.4 billion. This survey coveredearthquakes, tsunami, floods, storms and droughts. According to the survey carried out by the WorldwatchInstitute, over 25 years 12,000 climate related disasters caused 620,000 deaths and economic losses ofUS$ 1.3 trillion. Over the last decade, losses were estimated at US$ 570 billion. Over the last two decades,financial damages increased by 300%.

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Departures in temperature in ºC (from the 1990 value)

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Source: IPCC

VARIATIONS OF THE EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATURE: YEAR 1000 TO YEAR 2100

CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

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are racing toward collapse, without any effective and suffi-cient measures being taken to address the problem.

“There is strong evidence for the existence of signifi-cant global warming of the planet, with changes in theearth’s climate, and much of this warming can be attrib-uted to human activities in recent decades”, said a jointdeclaration signed by 11 national Academies of Science,among them the United States, Canada, the UnitedKingdom, Japan, Russia, Italy, France, Germany, India,China and Brazil (Joint Science Academies, 2005).

But what exactly does this warming mean to the life ofeach of us and to all the planet’s biodiversity? The changescaused by human activities, in contrast to those caused bynatural events like volcanic eruptions, increase or decreasein solar activity, or continental drift, have two very specificcharacteristics. They are very rapid and abrupt. Someregions have warmed considerably, while others have sud-denly become colder. “On the west coast of Canada, in theGulf of Alaska, on the Antarctic peninsula and in the Arcticas well as in all of Northern Siberia, the Canadian North, andGreenland itself, we have registered warming of up to 3.5° Cover the last 50 years” relates Aquino.

These radical changes have catastrophic conse-quences. “The hurricane season in the North TropicalAtlantic in 2005 was more intense than usual. The signs

are there. Only the blind would refuse to see this”, warnedJose Antonio Marengo Orsini, researcher for the NationalInstitute for Space Research (INPE).

MELTING AND THERMAL EXPANSION RAISES SEA LEVELSea levels are rising due to the thermal expansion of

ocean water and to the melting of the glacial ice which isformed from snow falling on the continents and islands ofthe Antarctic, Greenland, in the Arctic islands and mountainglaciers. In the warmest parts of Antarctica there has beena collapse of ice platforms like that of the Larsen B plat-form in 2002. In 12 years 14,000 km2 have been lost there,informed Jefferson Cardia Simões, of the Antarctic andClimate Research Centre of UFRGS (Simões, 2005).

However, the criticalpoint, emphasizes glaciolo-gist Simões, is the disap-pearance of the extra-polarmountain glaciers. Glaciersin the Andes have lost 20%to 30% of their area in thelast 40 years. This meltingice will contribute greatly to sea level rise by the year2100. Simões also highlighted the melting of glaciers inPatagonia, which lost 17,200 km2 over the last 40 years.

THE GLACIERS WHICHHAVE MELTED IN RECENTYEARS WILL RAISE THEAVERAGE SEA LEVEL 30CM TO 80 CM IN THE NEXT50 TO 80 YEARS

OURCONSUMPTION

PATTERNS, WITH SOROOTED IN HABITS LIKETHE USE OF CARS AND OURANIMAL PROTEIN-BASEDDIET, HAVE TO CHANGE. IFNOT, IN 2200 WE COULDHAVE A TEMPERATURERISE BETWEEN 7° C AND10° C. IT WILL BE ANOTHERPLANET WITH ENORMOUSTHREATS TO OURSURVIVING ABILITY”

Carlos Nobre, from INPE

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LOSS OF SPECIES AND WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS While scientists debate how much temperatures will rise

by the end of this century, new evidence concerning theloss of species caused by climate factors is emerging fromall over the planet. This is occurring especially in more com-plex ecosystems, like tropical forests, where the climatecan upset the life cycle of species. Carlos Nobre, researcherfor INPE, reports the recent disappearance of more than 70species of the Harlequin frog in Central and South America.“This shows us that parts of ecosystems and species canbe extremely vulnerable to small climate alterations.”

Populations of species which are already threatened willhave greater risk of extinction because of the synergism ofadverse pressures. Rising ocean temperatures is the maincause of the worsening of coral bleaching in recentdecades, observed in various parts of the planet. Somespecies defined as “critically threatened” will be extinctwithin the next decades and the “threatened or vulnerable”species will become even more rare, alerts Vanderlei PerezCanhos from the Office of Strategic Issues of the Presidencyof the Republic (Canhos, 2005).

MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGESAs a result of these planetary alterations, in 1988 the

IPCC was created. The scientists comprising the IPCC insist-ed that if there is no reduction of greenhouse gas emis-sions, temperatures will continue to rise. To address this

problem, at the 1992 UNCED conference in Rio de Janeiro,participating countries created the U.N. FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, which later resulted in theKyoto Protocol. The Protocol entered into force in 2005 andstates that in the first commitment period (2008-2012)industrialized countries must reduce their average emis-sion to 5.2% below 1990 levels.

This target however, is insufficient. Even if global emis-sions were stabilized 1990 levels, scientists estimate thatby the year 2200 the earth’s temperature will have risenbetween 0.4° C and 0.8° C. Countries must urgently makeadaptation plans to survive in a hotter world with more cli-mate catastrophes. The Climate Action Network (CAN),made up of more than 360 NGOs in 85 countries, arguesthat developing countries like Brazil should shift to a“decarbonization path”, with greenhouse gas emissionsreduced to within sustainable limits. Only with greatlyreduced deforestation worldwide, which is responsible for25% of the annual emissions of carbon gas, along with themassive reduction in fossil fuel use, will it be possible tokeep global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C above pre-industrial levels (CAN).

The limit of 2° C is considered by many scientists as thepoint of no return. For Carlos Nobre most projections showthat we could already be crossing a climate threshold. "Ourconsumption patterns with habits so rooted like privatecars and animal protein-based diet has to change. If not, by

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CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

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2200 we will have temperatures from 7° C to 10° C higher. Itwill be different planet, with enormous threats to our abili-ty to live on it."

If the planet’s temperature rises above the 2° C barrier,the risks of mass extinctions, collapse of ecosystems,food shortages, water scarcity, and economic disruption,principally in the developing countries, will rise significant-ly, warns Bill Hare, of the Potsdam Institute for ClimateImpact Research (Hare, 2004).

In the opinion of Marengo, from INPE, Brazil needs tocreate a new institution to assess the impacts and conse-quences that the climate changes have on the country - "a

centre which involves meteorologists, climatologists,researchers working in agriculture, health, tourism, legalaspects, the insurance industry etc."

At the end of August, 2005, the Climate Working Groupof the Brazilian Forum of NGOs and Social Movements forEnvironment and Development (FBOMS) sent a letter to thePresident of Brazil asking the Brazilian government tostrive at the international level to "ensure that the increasein average temperature remains as far as possible below 2° C. Decision-makers have to be aware of the situation,because the evidence exists". FBOMS also demands thecreation of a National Climate Change Policy.

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GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASEABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ANOMALY (° C)RELATIVE TO 1961-1990

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CHAPTER 2* Regional Impacts

THE AMAZONDeforestation and fires release more than 200 million tonsof carbon into the air every year

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DEFORESTATION AND FIRES IN THE AMAZON INCREASECARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS IN THE ATMOSPHEREAND AFFECT THE CLIMATE. THE LOSS OF FOREST AREAACCELERATES GLOBAL WARMING WHICH IN TURN DISRUPTSNATURAL AMAZONIAN SYSTEMS EVEN MORE, LEADING TONEW BURNING, EXTREME CLIMATIC PHENOMENA AND THESAVANIZATION OF THE FOREST

*

As in a prophecy about Brazil’s future, the “sea”became “sertao” (backlands) in various regions of theAmazon, shocking the world in 2005. Boats ran agroundon enormous sandbanks, thousands of dead fish floated inrivers with reduced flow, riverine communities lackingfood and clean drinking water, changed the Amazonianlandscape. Images resembling deserts are shocking, notonly because they occur in a region that possesses 20% ofthe fresh water on the planet, but principally due to thecause of the phenomenon.

Great dry periods afflicted the Amazon in the 20th centu-ry, as in 1925-26, l961, 1982-3 and 1997-8, resulting in anincrease in fires and serious impacts on the population. Allof them were attributed to intense episodes of “El Niño”, aperiodic climatic phenomenon characterized by warmingabove normal levels of the waters of the Pacific near thecoasts of Ecuador and Peru. However, in 2005 it was a dif-

ferent kind of climatic anom-aly that dried the westernand the southern regions ofthe Amazon, not the centralor eastern regions, as duringEl Niño years. Studies indi-cate that the abnormalwarming of almost 1° C in thetropical Atlantic surfacewaters caused the calamity.The same oceanic phenome-

non was probably the cause of increased hurricanes in theCaribbean, Central America and southern United States(Artaxo, 2006).

As the rains did not appear, the level of some of the prin-cipal rivers of the region like Solimoes, Madeira, Purus,Jurua and Acre diminished substantially. Navigation wassuspended in different areas. Droughts also favored fires.In September of 2005 there was a 300% increase in fires in

THE OLDEST RESIDENTSSAY THEY HAD NEVERSEEN SUCH A LONGDROUGHT FOLLOWED BYAN EXTENSIVE FLOODING.THEY ARE EVIDENCESTHAT CLIMATE CHANGE ISALREADY AFFECTING THEAMAZON CLIMATE

20

relation to the same periodof 2004 (Marengo, 2006).

The impacts of theincreased fires were disas-trous for affected communi-ties and also for the climateof the planet, because theproliferation of the firesintensified carbon emis-sions. Studies from theAmazon Institute for Environ-mental Research Institute

(IPAM) showed that with global warming and more frequentdry spells, the forests of the Amazon region lose much morehumidity, making them more vulnerable to fires. Tree mortal-ity increases significantly and carbon emissions to theatmosphere increase (Nepstad et al., 2004).

Rain only returned in October, 2005. Months later a newclimatic tragedy occurred. The region was hit by heavyflooding that brought more suffering to riverine communi-ties. The oldest residents say they had never seen such along drought followed by an extensive flooding. Researchersand scientists ask themselves what is disrupting thesophisticated hydrological system which springs from theAndes and forms a watershed of 7 million km2, 58% inBrazilian territory.

In the Amazon the rivers flood their banks regularly.The water level varies annually from 8 meters to 15 metersbetween the dry and wet seasons. Recent climatic disas-ters and scientific evidence show that this millenary riseand fall of Amazonian waters is being disturbed by twosynergic phenomena which interact with each other andcan cause the slow destruction of this balance: deforesta-tion and global warming (Moutinho, 2005).

THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF WARMING The circle is vicious: the clearing of forests and fires

increase the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and thusglobal warming, which in turn alters the climate in theAmazon region favoring dryer climates, new fires and morecarbon emissions. This process can lead to the savaniza-tion of the forest, according to INPE researcher CarlosNobre. He warns that if the current rate and patterns ofdeforestation continue, a significant part of the 6 millionkm2 that is called the Amazon forest could be transformed

into much poorer cerrado (Brazilian savannah) over a peri-od of between fifty and a hundred years (NOBRE, 2004).

Deforestation and burning are significant globalsources of various greenhouse gas emissions like CO2(carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane) and N2O (nitrous oxide).Other significant gases which are also emitted are CO (car-bon monoxide), NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) volatile organiccompounds and dozens of other gases. Of particular impor-tance are the emissions of O3 (ozone), a gas formed by thefires. When they occur, the concentrations of O3 reach lev-els which are damaging to the forest - even in areas kilo-meters away.

Currently, deforestation and fires account for emis-sions of 200 to 300 million tons annually in Brazil. “This isthe principal Brazilian contribution, because all of the fos-sil fuels combined in this country do not emit even 100million tons”, calculates Nobre. The increase of greenhousegases makes the planet hotter, which in turn has conse-quences for the Amazon climate. The majority of the sce-narios indicate higher temperatures and dryer climateswith less rain.

Regional climate models which evaluate the impacts ofclimate changes in South America predict a warming of upto 6° C in the final decades of this century in the southernregion of the Amazon, a dryer climate in east Amazon andreduced rainfall in parts of western Amazon (MARENGOand AMBRISI, 2006). This is also the results researchersobtain when they simulate deforestation. The hydrologicalimpacts of deforestation begin when it reaches 25% to 35%of the sub-basin hydrographic area, according toresearchers Arnaldo Carneiro Filho, Ralph Trancoso andJuliana Sacheti, of National Institute for Amazon Research(INPA), in 2005. In the study of 1,261 Amazon sub-basins,at least 240 are already showing signs of deforestation ofup to 25% of their areas, 56 sub-basins already have up to60% of their area deforested and in 43 of them deforesta-tion is already at the 90% mark (CARNEIRO et al., 2005).

The Amazon lost more than 70,000 km2 between 2002and 2005 alone. If the pace of deforestation and globalwarming continues unchanged, we could see tempera-tures of 2° C to 3° C warmer and 10% to 20% lower rainfall.For Nobre, this represents a clear trend towards savaniza-tion of the Amazon region, with areas today covered by for-est being replaced by cerrado, a dryer vegetation and poor-er in biodiversity. The losses in terms of species numberswould be incalculable (NOBRE, 2004).

IF THE CURRENT RATE AND PATTERNS OFDEFORESTATIONCONTINUE, A SIGNIFICANTPART OF THE 6 MILLIONKM2 OF AMAZON FORESTCOULD BE TRANSFORMEDINTO MUCH POORERCERRADO OVER A PERIODOF BETWEEN FIFTY AND AHUNDRED YEARS

CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

THE FLOODS OF 2006REALLY MESSED US

UP. MY LITTLEGRANDDAUGHTER FELL INTOTHE WATER AND ALMOSTDROWNED. THE ANIMALSHAVE TO STAY INSIDE, LOCKEDUP IN PENS. THE CHILDRENHAVE VIROSES, FEVERS,COUGHS. ITS QUITE DIFFICULT.ON TOP OF ALL THAT WE HADTO PAY TEN REAIS FOR EACHHEAD OF CATTLE TO THEOWNERS OF THE LAND TOLEAVE OUR COWS THERE.”

Cleonice da Costa,48 years old, mother of six children, inhabitant of the

Igarapé do Rei, Careiro da Várzeacommunity (Amazon).

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22

GIGANTIC STOCK OF CARBONA healthy Amazon is very important to Brazil and to the

climate of the earth, because the forest is a gigantic reser-voir of carbon. It is calculated that the biomass stored inorganic material of the soil and vegetation is from 100 to120 billion tons of carbon.

If all this were to enter the atmosphere, there would bean increase of 15% to 17% of global greenhouse gas concen-trations, informs CarlosNobre from INPE. The LargeScale Biosphere-AtmosphereExperiment in the Amazon(LBA), the largest program ofinternational scientific coop-eration in environmentalresearch in the Amazon, cre-ated to study interactionsbetween the Amazon forestand global and regional cli-matic conditions, indicate that an undisturbed forest couldbe absorbing from 100 to 400 million tons of carbon fromthe atmosphere per year.

The Amazon is also a surprising atmospheric regulatorand plays a key role in rainfall regimes in all South Americaand even in other continents.

Scientists have now discovered why. In undisturbed for-est areas the air is as pure as the air over the oceans.

The difference is that in the Amazon it rains much morethan in the oceans. This occurs because the forest producesits own “seeds” for clouds, the Volatile Organic Compounds(VOCs), an instantaneous and constant supply of nuclei ofcondensation in the atmosphere, stimulating the formationof drops and clouds.

This rain mechanism is self-sustaining and stable,explains Antonio Nobre, INPA scientist and member of LBA.The tropical forest keeps the air humid and free of excessdust. In turn, the humid atmosphere keeps the tropical for-est healthy (NOBRE 2005).

By this mechanism, the humidity evaporated in thetropical Atlantic Ocean brought to the Amazon by tradewinds transforms itself into more humidity. Part of it fallson the forest itself. Another part is distributed by winds andatmospheric currents over vast areas of South Americanterritory like the Central-south, Southeast and South ofBrazil. Studies show that a loss of forest area can changethe levels of precipitation in all of these regions, reducing

IF ALL CARBON STORED IN THE AMAZON FORESTENTER THE ATMOSPHERE,THERE WOULD BE ANINCREASE OF 15% TO 17% OF GLOBALCONCENTRATION OF THE GREENHOUSE GASES EFFECT

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

*Global warming will raise the temperatures in the Amazon up to 6° C till the end of this

century and could leave the climate dryer and with 10% to 20% less rainfall.

*A cerrado poorer in biodiversity will advance on the forest. This savanization is accelerated

by deforestation and burning.

*Of the 32 eco-regions of the Amazon, at least 18 will lose more than 40% of their cover and

12 of them will lose more than 70%, with variousserious impacts on biodiversity.

*Deforestation also reduces the transport ofmoisture to other regions in South America such

as the Mid-west, Southeast and the South of Brazil,leading droughts in other regions.

*If the Amazon were to be totally deforested,alterations in the rain pattern could affect the

climate of North America and Europe, reachingregions 10,000 kilometers away.

*If all the carbon stored in the Amazon were to go into the atmosphere, global concentration

of greenhouse gases would rise between 15% to 17%.

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AMAZON MAP

The Amazon, that has lost more than 70.000 km2

of its forested area only between 2002 and 2005

Sour

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CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

the transport of moisture and hydrological cycles in thesesareas with influence even in other countries.“Deforestation of the Amazon can reduce rainfall in variousregions of the United States and in Europe”, warnsresearcher Paulo Artaxo, from the Institute of Physics ofthe University of Sao Paulo (ARTAXO, 2006).

The Amazon atmosphere even serves as a pollutant filter.Oxidants like ozone and nitrogen oxides are removed by reg-ulatory mechanisms, a property that could be lost with thedestruction of the forest, says Nobre, from INPE.

For Artaxo, land use changes caused by anthropic pres-sures from the lumber industry, intensive agriculture andcattle ranching also cause alterations in the Amazon atmos-phere and can invert the balance of the assimilation and theliberation of carbon by the forest, with unpredictable conse-quences for the Amazon biome and the climate of the planet(ARTAXO, 2005).

What the numbers, models and statistics say, theAmazon population feels. The change is in the air that isbreathed, in the water that is drunk, in the food that can befound no more, as described by teacher Maria do RosárioBatista de Lima, vice-president of the residents’ associa-tion of Igarapé do Rei community in Careiro da Várzea (AM):

“Summer has turned into winter, winter has turned intosummer. This hasn’t happened before. Nature is warningus. Do not accept this. If this deforestation continues tohappen, we are going to go from bad to worse. Maybe it isgoing to get better for one or two, but the community as awhole suffers. Nature is suffering and we suffer with it”.

CLIMATIC ANOMALIES

From January to April 2005, rainfall diminished to between 30% and 50% below normal in Rio Branco,Rondônia, South Pará and in the southern part of the Amazon. In June and August the reduction was 33%and in July it even hit 65%. From September to August 2005, rainfall dropped by 39% in the Peruvian partof the Amazon. Between January and April 2005, precipitation fell below normal - from 20% to 30% - in thehydrographic basin of Beni, in Bolivia and in the river basin of Mamoré. The levels of the Amazon river in Iquitos, in Peru and Letícia, in Colombia, of the Solimões river, in Tabatingaand Fonte Boa (State of Amazonas), of the river Acre, in Rio Branco (State of Acre), of the river Mamoré, inPuerto Varador, in Bolivia, and of the river Ibaré, in Puerto Almacen, in Bolivia, were below their normal levelsalmost all the year 2005 until September. In some cases, even two meters below normal (MARENGO, 2006).

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

*Brazil needs to assume its responsibility as thefourth largest greenhouse gas emitter on the

planet and commit to reducing its major source ofemissions, deforestation and burning.

*Implement systems of deforestation monitoringby satellite in all biomes and develop emergency

actions plans in case of droughts or flooding.

*Channel resources for environmental inspections,especially in years of drought, and punish

environmental crimes as an example to others.

*Expand protected areas on public and privateland and fully implement those that already exist.

*Create wide-ranging and participatory andeconomic and ecological zoning land use

throughout all the Amazon, prohibiting the advanceof agriculture frontiers in forest areas.

*Develop incentive policies for those thatmaintain areas of preservation on their lands,

besides the minimum of preserved areasestablished by law.

*Take the lead in international negotiations withinthe United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change on initiatives to help developingcountries to combat their emissions from deforestation.

24

A HOTTER PLANET WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE ARIDREGIONS WITH SUMMER RAINS, WHICH IS THE CASE OF THESEMI-ARID AREA OF BRAZIL. THE SEMI-ARID CAATINGACOULD BECOME A DESERT, AFFECTING MILLIONS OF PEOPLEAND INCREASING RURAL EXODUS. URGENT ACTIONS ARENECESSARY TO STOP THE PROCESS OF DESERTIFICATION

*

The phantom of drought periodically knocks on thedoors of thousands of families in the Northeast of Brazil,killing their cattle, drying up their water, bringing on hungerand forcing people to leave their homes. With global warm-ing, in the near future, this situation could become a ruleand no longer the exception. A hotter planet could acceler-ate the creation of deserts in Brazil, transforming semi-aridareas into arid zones, where rainfall rates, currently around400 mm to 800 mm of rain per year, would fall to levelsnever before seen in Brazil.

Global Deserts Outlook, a study of climatic changes indeserts, released by the United Nations in 2006, reportsthat the temperature has already risen in 9 to 12 desertsstudied around the planet, between 1976 and 2000.Projections indicate an increase between 1° C and 7° C inthe temperatures of these areas by the end of the century.

According to this study, ahotter planet would reduceprecipitation in the dryerregions with summer rains,which is the case of theBrazilian semi-arid region.The region’s specific charac-teristics would worsen thesituation: the Northeast hasa high potential for waterevaporation. Such increases

in temperatures, independently of what would happenwith rainfall, would bring about greater evaporation fromlakes and reservoirs, as well as greater evaporativedemand from plants (MARENGO and NOBRE, 2005).Besides this, rains in Brazil’s semi-arid regions would dropduring intense El Niño years, which have become more fre-quent. Simple calculations with water balance models car-ried out by the INPE indicate that an increase of 3° C ormore in average temperatures would increase the drynessof places where today we find the highest water deficit in

GLOBAL WARMING WOULDINCREASE THE DRYNESSOF BRAZILIAN SEMI-ARID,ACCELERATING THEPROCESS OFDESERTIFICATION. THECAATINGA WOULD GIVEPLACE TO A TYPICAL OFARID ZONE VEGETATION

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SEMI-ARIDWarmer temperatures increase the risk of theappearance of deserts in 16% of Brazilian territory

WHEN THERE ISNO WATER, WE

HAVE TO FETCH IT ONEKILOMETER FROM HERE.IT’S YELLOW. WE NEED TOWALK AROUND TEN MILESTO GET CLEAN WATER. IT ISHORRIBLE DURINGDROUGHTS. WE PRODUCEMANIOC IN THE RAINYSEASON AND HONEYDURING THE DRY SEASON.THE COMMUNITY IS GOODBUT SOMETIMES YOU JUST WANT TO GET UP AND LEAVE.”

Rosângela Gomes de Almeida, inhabitant of

Santana do Cariri (Ceará)

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the Brazilian semi-arid regions. The semi-arid regionincludes most of the states in the Northeast and thenorthern parts of Minas Gerais and of Espirito Santo, cov-ering a total area of almost 1 million km2. In some climat-ic scenarios, says researcher Carlos Nobre from INPE, thetemperatures would rise from 2° C to 5° C in the Northeastby the end of the 21st century. This would force the semi-arid caatinga biome to convert to a vegetation which ismore typical of arid zones. The region’s climate would alsobe affected by deforestation of the Amazon.

DESERTIFICATION Less water would mean a social tragedy. The semi-arid

area of Brazil is the most populated such region in the world, with more than 20 million inhabitants.Unfortunately, it is not necessary to wait for temperaturesto rise to feel the impacts of water shortages. It alsoappears because of desertification, a process that alreadyaffects 181,000 km2 of Brazilian semi-arid regions, accord-ing to data from the Environmental Ministry. The hardesthit areas are Gilbués (PI), Irauçuba, (CE), Seridó (PB) andCabrobó (PE), over an area of 18,700 km2.

Desertification is caused by climatic alterations and byhuman activity, which transforms the type of land use.Desertification degrades the land of arid, semi-arid and drysub-humid zones. The lack of water generates migration tothe cities along the coast, with a consequent disintegrationof families and also the abandonment of farmland. One ofthe factors that leads to desertification is the destruction ofnative vegetation, explains Marta and Rogério Lacerda in anarticle on the Plans to Combat Desertification in the BrazilianNortheast, published in 2004 in the scientific journalBiologia e Ciências da Terra (Biology and Earth Sciences). “Inthe first year you cut down the native vegetation and burn it,the ashes help. But, in the second year, this begins to weak-en the earth. The burning of the capoeira (shrub vegetation)kills the catch-crops and the microorganisms. The rest of thecrop stays on the ground and becomes organic material.That is why I do not burn my crops”, says FranciscoAlexandrino Gomes, 73 years old, from the Jatobá communi-ty, which is in the municipality of Ouricuri (PE).

When he arrived in the region in 1967 he remembersthat there was a lot of vegetation. “Nowadays, there arepeople who can’t even find a stick to cut down to make astake for their chicken coop. Erosion also is very serious.The wind blows a lot now and before it was not like this. It’s

hotter, and it is difficult to grow crops like we used to”,laments the farmer. Desertification already makes itselffelt in practically all of the states of the semi-arid regions,but the most vulnerable areas are in parts of Ceará,Pernambuco, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte and the extremenorth of Bahia. In the region of Chapada do Araripe,between Ceará and Pernambuco, the water volumes reduc-tion over time has gone from 0.3% (1860 – 1960), 2.8%(1960 – 1980) to 6% (1980 – 2000) (SANTANA, 2003).

CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

27

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

*Projections indicate an increase in temperaturebetween 1° C and 7° C in the deserts by the end

of the 21st century

*A hotter planet would reduce precipitation in theBrazilian semi-arid region, rapidly transforming

large areas into arid zones.

*In some climatic scenarios, the temperatureswould rise from 2° C to 5° C in the Northeast by

the end of the 21st century. The caatinga could bereplaced by a vegetation more typical of arid zones,with the predominance of cacti. The Amazondeforestation would also affect the region.

*An increase of 3° C or more in the averagetemperature would create even more drought

in places that today have the greatest water deficitin the semi-arid region.

*Agricultural production would become unviable over large areas, putting human

survival at risk.

*The high potential for evaporation in theNortheast, together with increased temperatures,

would result in lower water levels in lakes, ponds and reservoirs.

*The northeastern semi-arid area will becomevulnerable to torrential rains concentrated

in a shorter period of time, resulting in floods and serious social-environmental impacts.

*Soil degradation will increase migration tocoastal cities, worsening urban problems.

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28

In the watershed of the river Taperoá, in the central partof Paraíba, there is a significant process of desertificationin São João do Cariri. The situation is considered seriousbecause of the trend towards reduced rainfall, extensivedeforestation, the presence of fragile soil and the greatnumber of goats and sheep, raised on an unsustainablebasis. The municipality of Cabeceiras (PB) also has areasundergoing desertification, with a loss of biodiversity and arural exodus. Because of the severe climate and deforesta-tion for planting crops and cattle ranching, the area cov-ered by a type of low and sparse caatinga vegetation in theregion has been increasing. This type of degraded vegeta-tion covered 2,730 hectares in Cabeceiras (PB) in 1967. By1996 it had soared to 42,634 hectares. In São João doCariri (PB), the area rose from 6,363 hectares in 1967 to45,268 hectares in 1996. The reduction in populationoccurred in its most accentuated form in São João do Cariri(PB). Of the 17,633 inhabitants in 1960, there were only7,822 left in 1996 (SOUZA et al., 2004).

The semi-arid northeast region is also vulnerable toflooding. A recent example was the heavy rainfall of 2004.In only one month, more than 1,000 mm of rain fell. The his-

2006: YEAR TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION

The impacts of desertification have no boundaries. Sand storms coming from China are reaching Korea,Japan and other areas of the Pacific, causing health problems. Of the 5.2 billion hectares used for drylandagriculture, around 3.6 billion hectares have already suffered from erosion and soil degradation. It isestimated that at least 24 billion tons of soil are lost due to actions of wind and water each year. This lossis 16 times more rapid than the capacity of replacement. These data were released by the United Nations in 2006, which the UN has designated the InternationalYear of Deserts and Desertification. According to the study, the area affected by droughts has increasedmore than 50% in the last century worldwide. Land degradation and desertification affect 33% of the landsurface and 2.6 billion people. Presently, around 1.2 billion people live in situations of extreme poverty,which could become worse with the advance of desertification. In Latin America, there are more than 516 million hectares affected. The annual loss is estimated at 24billion tons of the arable layer of soil. Throughout the world, according to the United Nations, desertificationcosts the planet US$ 42 billion each year and around 135 million people risk losing their land to theadvance of desertification. To address this problem, in 1994 the United Nations approved the United Nation Convention to CombatDesertification (UNCCD), ratified by Brazil in 1997. Desertification is not inevitable, and can be confrontedwith collective actions and the participation of communities.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

*Brazil’s National Program to Fight Desertificationand for Mitigation Effects of Droughts (PAN)

must be integrated into a National Climate Change Policy.

*Immediately put into practice actions to mitigate the effects of desertification.

*Protect extensive areas of caatinga inconservation areas.

*Ecological anda Economical Zoning must become the basic instrument for planning actions of

the government.

*State environmental institutions must bestrengthened, with improvements in

infrastructure and training of personnel.

*Identify the vulnerabilities of the semi-arid landto climate changes.

29

torical average is from 550mm to 600mm per year.“Communities were isolated, houses and dams weredestroyed, people were killed, animals were killed andthere was a loss in production. All this happened in themonth of January. And during the following month therewas no more rain”, remembers Burguivol Alves, from theAlternative NGOs and Rural Workers Support and AdvisoryCenter. To survive the annual dry periods, local technolo-gies are being developed, like cisterns, or undergrounddam, made out of an underground barrier of impermeableearth and a barrier in form of a trench. “We also work withpreservation of high-risk areas and restoration of degradedareas. All this along our work with apiculture”, relates Alves.

These solutions aim to capture and store rain watersthat in normal situations would rapidly be lost throughevaporation. However, they do not work if rains don’t come.The forecast of some models indicate that areas with lowrainfall can become dry and arid, without any rainfall forlong periods, even years maybe (MARENGO et al., 2005).

IMMINENT DISASTERParaíba is the Brazilian state that possesses the great-

est percentage of areas with a very serious level of deserti-fication (29%), directly affecting more than 653,000 inhab-itants. A little more than 70% of the territory of Paraiba,home to 1.66 million people (52% of the state’s population),

is affected by the problem(CANDIDO et al., 2002).

The Western SeridóParaibano has been charac-terized in recent years by anintense degradation of itsagricultural land as result ofthe effects of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO),with prolonged periods ofdrought, shown by research on the Evaluation ofEnvironmental Degradation on Part of Seridó Pernambuco,published by Humberto Candido in 2002, in the BrazilianJournal of Environmental and Agricultural Engineering. Thestudy assessed environmental degradation in 947.81 km2 ofSeridó. Of this total, 44.86% were classified as having a seri-ous level of degradation and 2.24% as having a very seriouslevel. Areas classified as being very serious are related tothe so-called “centers of desertification”.

The data collected in the field by Candido indicated ahigh level of deterioration of living conditions. Many inhab-itants who could not manage to live anymore from agricul-ture began to work in brickyards, destroying vegetationand soil resources. Candido recommends that urgent miti-gation measures be taken to avoid a generalized desertifi-cation, which would be a social and environmental disaster.

PARAÍBA IS THE BRAZILIANSTATE THAT POSSESSES THE GREATESTPERCENTAGE OF AREASWITH A VERY SERIOUSLEVEL OF DESERTIFICATION(29%), DIRECTLYAFFECTING MORE THAN653,000 INHABITANTS

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THE COASTAL ZONENew hurricanes in the South Atlantic and the elevation of thesea level threaten a great part of the Brazilian population

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CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

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GLOBAL WARMING CAN TRANSFORM PART OF THE BRAZILIANCOASTLINE INTO A REGION FAVORING THE FORMATION OFINTENSE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE COASTAL ZONE,WHERE 42 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE, WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE ELEVATION OF THE SEA LEVEL IN THE NEXT DECADES.CORAL REEFS BLEACHING WILL CAUSE BIODIVERSITY ANDECONOMIC LOSSES

*

What seemed impossible came true. A hurricane,formed on the waters of the South Atlantic, hit coastal citiesin Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul at the end of March,2004. It was proven that Catarina, as it was baptized, wasreally a phenomenon identical to those that frequently pun-ish the Caribean, the Gulf of Mexico and the West coast ofUnited States. The category 1 hurricane (the least intense),with winds of up to 150km/h, killed 11 people and causeddestruction in dozens of municipalities between Laguna(State of Santa Catarina - SC) and Torres (State of RioGrande do Sul - RS). In the state of Santa Catarina, the hur-ricane damaged more than 32 thousand houses anddestroyed more than 400, with estimated losses up to R$ 1billion (JB ONLINE, 2004).

“In the middle of the night, when the hurricane came, westayed inside the house and trusted in God. After the wind,came the rain. In the morning, we found damaged houses,broken windows all over the place, furniture on the ground,

fallen trees, the sea rose, itwas horrible. Many peoplesuffered traumas. Fishermenpassed through hell, the fishare only now beginning toreturn”, says fisherwomanMaria Santana, inhabitant ofTorres (RS), one of the citieshit by Catarina hurricane.

Hotter climatic scenescan transform the Brazilian

coast from Rio Grande do Sul to the south of Rio de Janeiro,between 2071 e 2100, into a region with conditions favor-able to the development of extra-tropical cyclones. If cli-matic changes bring hurricanes to the South Atlantic, therewill be a need to change the construction legislation, toimprove buildings to be resistant to cyclones (MARENGOand NOBRE, 2005).

GLOBAL WARMING WILLINTENSIFY THEOCCURRENCE OF INTENSESTORMS AND NEWHURRICANES COULD HITTHE BRAZILIAN COAST,AFFECTING THE BIGGESTCITIES IN THE COUNTRY,LIKE RIO DE JANEIRO

The occurrence of hurricanes is not the only risk.Coastal cities in Brazil and up to 25% of the Brazilian popu-lation (up to. 42 million people who live there) are vulnera-ble to sea level rise. The average height of the sea levelcould rise between 30cm and 80cm in the next 50 to 80years. “This is already an international consensus”, guar-antees researcher Francisco Eliseu Aquino of the Antarcticand Climatic Research Centre of the Federal University ofRio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Over the last 50 years a trendwas observed in the Brazilian coast: an increase of the rel-ative level of the ocean measuring around 40cm per centu-ry, or 4mm in a year, says Afrânio Rubens de Mesquita, aresearcher from the Oceanographic Institute of Universityof Sao Paulo (MESQUITA, 2005).

Variations in the relative sea level can also occurbecause of thermal expansion caused by global warmingas well as by meteorological tides, due the increase in the

intensity of winds. They canproduce a piling up of up to20cm of level of waters onthe Rio de Janeiro coast,explains David Zee, profes-sor of the State University ofRio de Janeiro.

Sidewalks, houses andbars built on the shorelinecould be destroyed by thewaves or by the increase ofup to almost half a meter on

the average sea level. Badly planned and precarioussewage systems at sea level (or even below sea level) willflow backwards. More than 22 million people live in the fivemajor Brazilian coastal cities - Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador,Rio de Janeiro and Belém.

The elevation of the sea level and the increase instorms can modify the coastline, explains Dieter Muehe,researcher of the Department of Geography of the FederalUniversity of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ). This alteration occursdue several factors, such as the intake of sediments orchanges in the wave patterns.

In Brazil, the areas most susceptible to erosion are inthe Northeast, due the lack of rivers able to supply sedi-ments into the sea waters. In Pernambuco, one of thestates most affected, around six in ten beaches of the187km of coast loose land to the sea. An elevation of 50cmof the level of the Atlantic could suppress 100m of beach inthe North and the Northeast regions. (Fapesp Magazine,2003). In Recife, for example, coastline retroceded 80mbetween 1915 and 1950 and more than 25m between1985 and 1995 (MUEHE and NEVES, 2005).

In Rio de Janeiro, considered to be one of the Braziliancities most vulnerable cities to sea level rise, signs ofchanges can already be seen. “At Joatinga beach, at end ofBarra da Tijuca, we lose 800m of beach-line per year”,states David Zee. Aquino predicts that Brazil will experi-

32

BADLY PLANNED ANDPRECARIOUS SEWAGESYSTEMS AT SEA LEVEL ORA LITTLE BELOW WILLFLOW IN THE OPPOSITEDIRECTION IF SEA LEVELRISES, AFFECTING THEFIVE PRINCIPAL BRAZILIANCOASTAL CITIES WITHMORE THAN 22 MILLIONINHABITANTS

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sea level rise (metres)

A1 A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2

Range in 2100*

SCENARIOS:

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

*In the next 50 or 80 years, the sea level will risebetween 30cm and 80cm due the melting ice

which in recent decades. Anomalies in the Antarcticcould add more 15cm to this figure.

*Cities located on the Brazilian coast will be hit.Constructions along the shore will disappear.

Populations will have to be relocated and precarioussewage systems will collapse.

*Global warming will intensify the occurrence ofintense storms and new hurricanes could hit the

Brazilian coast.

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GLOBAL AVERAGE SEA LEVEL RISE

Source: IPCC

CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

33

ence a subtle but important change in the circulation pat-tern of ocean currents, which will alter the marine faunaand flora, the fishing spots and human occupation itself.Penguins, which appear more frequently on the southeast-ern beaches, exhausted and dirty with oil, could be a signof the change in ocean currents (ZEE, 2006).

CORAL BLEACHINGThe rise in the oceans waters temperature is already

causing a new phenomenon in different regions of the plan-et, including Brazil: coral bleaching. This happens when sea-weed growing on the corals stop absorbing carbon dioxide,nitrogen compounds and phosphorus due the stresscaused by oceans warming. Without the seaweed, coralsbleach. The elevation of the temperature is the principal rea-son for the greatest occurrence of coral bleaching in thelast decades, says Hoegh-Guldberg, director of the CoralReef Research Institute, in Australia (GREENPEACE, 2001).

Cases of coral bleaching have already been reported inBrazil. In the Initial Communication to the United NationsConvention on Climate Change in 2004, the Brazilian gov-ernment mentions an extensive bleaching of the Mussimiliahispia and Madracis decatis coral species in 1993 and 1994along the Sao Paulo coastline and two occurrences, one inthe summer of 1994 and the other at the end of 1997, inAbrolhos (Bahia State, Northeast region).

DUE TO A DELAY IN INFORMATION,

FIVE BOATS WERE AT SEA WHEN HURRICANECATARINA APPROCHED. ON LAND MOST OF THEHOUSES WERE HIT.THERE WAS ALSOGOVERNMENTNEGLIGENCE. THEHOMES DESTROYEDTOOK MONTHS TO BERECONSTRUCTED.”

Adriano Joaquim, fisherman from

Passo de Torres (SC)

“

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

*Identify changes along the Brazilian coastlinewhich have occurred in the last decades.

*Integrate researches under development toidentify the vulnerability of the country and

its metropolitan areas to the sea level rise.

*Develop wide-scope urban planning to prepareand adapt cities to the changes caused by sea

level rise.

*Brazilian population in coastal areas needs to be instructed about the occurrence of

cyclones, tornados and hurricanes.

*Extreme weather alert systems must beimproved to allow preventive emergency actions

to be taken in time.

*Instruction civil defense personnal and potentialvictims in the prevention of impacts from the

elevation of the sea level, undertows and theincidence of severe storms or even hurricanes.

*Create programs for the defense of population incases of potential natural catastrophe due more

intense climatic phenomena.

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SCIENTISTS VERIFIED THAT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATUREAND HEATWAVES ARE INCREASING, AS WELL AS THE FREQUENCY OF INTENSE RAINS THAT HIT THE CITIES ANDTHE COUNTRYSIDE. MORE SEVERE DROUGHTS CALL FORCHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES. CLIMATIC CHANGESIN THE ANTARCTIC AND IN THE AMAZON ALSO ALTERS THECLIMATE IN THE SOUTH

*

At the end of 2004, meteorologists from the south ofBrazil forecasted a normal quantity of rain for the nextsummer, based on the historical average, but this did nothappen. In December, January and February it rained lessthan half of the average rainfall amount usually expectedduring this three months in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The most critical situationwas during the month ofFebruary, when the rainfalldeficits in the state reachedlevels higher than 80mm.The worst situation of all wasfelt in the northern parts ofRio Grande do Sul, whererainfall deficits were higherthan 110 mm, 20% of the his-torical mean rainfall levels.

At the end of August, after the drought, still afraid of anew Catarina hurricane, which destroyed parts of the coastin the north of Rio Grande do Sul in March 2004, the popula-tion of the region watched in panic the arrival of an extra-tropical cyclone. Winds blew at more than 200km per hour.It was a week of tornados, strong winds and hailstorm in 15municipalities. The most serious case was in Muitos Capões,a small city with 3 thousand inhabitants in Northeastern RioGrande do Sul. 200km per hour winds left 21 houses andpublic buildings completely destroyed, causing R$ 3.5 mil-lion losses. This happened in the same day that Katrina hur-ricane hit New Orleans, in the United States. According to thecivil defense, the tornado destroyed at least 70% of the city.

In recent decades the occurrence of tornados in thesouth of Brazil has been recorded. In Santa Catarina, from1976 to 2000, 23 episodes were detected, 15 of thesecases were confirmed and 8 were considered possibleoccurrences, informs Isabela Marcelino, in her Masterdegree dissertation for INPE in 2003.

IGUAZU FALLS, ONE OF THE MOST BEAUTIFULPOSTCARDS OF BRAZIL,DIMINISHED TO A 13%AMOUNT OF ITS NORMALFLOW, ITS LOWEST WATERVOLUME SINCE IT BEGANTO BE MEASURED 18YEARS AGO

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THE SOUTHERN REGIONThe population already lives with extreme climaticphenomena, such as prolonged droughts and cyclones

36

According to studies of the Severe Storms Laboratory ofthe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) of the United States, part of the southeasternregion and mainly the southern region of Brazil are thenumber two region of the planet most prone to the forma-tion of tornados in the new climatic scenario (BROOKS, LEEand CRAVEN, 2003).

In 2006, the state of Parana faced one of the strongestdroughts of its history. In March, the loss in crops causedby the drought was already up to R$ 1.57 billion due to thecrash of the harvest of soy, corn, wheat and beans. TheIguazu river had its lowest outflow in the last 75 years inJuly of 2006, according to the Paranaense EnergyCompany. The eternally torrential Iguazu Falls, one of themost beautiful postcards of Brazil, diminished to a 13%amount of its normal flow. According to the ItaipuHydroeletric Dam Company, this it was the lowest volumethe waterfalls since it began to be measured.

These are exemple showing that the climatic alterationsare no longer just a scientific hypothesis, but they arealready in the backyard of the people who live in the south-ern region of Brazil. Extreme events, severe droughts, hot-ter nights and the increase in the frequency and intensityof rain storms could be just the tip of the iceberg of climat-ic changes that are still on their way.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES, MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN In August 2004, 28 South American scientists were

gathered in Maceió (AL), in the Climate Changes DetectionIndex Workshop, to evaluate these trends of climaticextremes in South America by analyzing data from thewhole continent.

Scientists concluded that the minimum daily tempera-tures are increasing in the southeastern part of SouthAmerica. Climatic data from 1960 to 2000 showed a signifi-cant rise in the percentage of hot nights and the tendencyof less cold nights in the region, mainly in Summer, betweenDecember and February, and in Autumn, between Marchand May, with more significant alterations on the west andeast coasts of the continent (VINCENT et al., 2005).

In Rio Grande do Sul, an expressive increase of 1.4° Cminimum annual temperature was recorded between 1913and 1998, says Moacir Antônio Berlato, researcher at theAgronomics Institute of the Federal University of RioGrande do Sul (UFRGS). The data show an increase in heatwaves, hot nights and reduction of days with severe frost(BERLATO et al., 2005).

Extreme temperaturepeaks also have beenobserved with more fre-quency. It becomes verycold and very hot within ashort span of time. “Themonthly average tempera-ture for one month was 3.5degrees lower. That is verystrong. The average of thefollowing month was 2.5degrees above the expected average. That is very extremein such a short space of time”, affirms Francisco EliseuAquino, scientist from the Antarctic and Climatic ResearchCentre of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul(UFRGS), who studied the relationship between theAntarctic and South America climates.

In Santa Catarina minimum temperatures raised in allregions, causing the reduction and severity of the frost andcold winter and increasing the thermal sensation of chokingin the summer. This elevation varies from 1° C to 3° C, depend-ing on the proximity to the coast. The maximum tempera-tures also raised, but in much smaller variations of less than1° C, according to the analysis by Hugo José Braga, head ofthe Hydrometeorology and Environmental Resources

IN RIO GRANDE DO SUL, ANEXPRESSIVE INCREASE OF1.4° C MINIMUM ANNUALTEMPERATURE WAS REGISTERED BETWEEN1913 AND 1998. EXTREME TEMPERATURE PEAKSALSO HAVE BEENOBSERVED WITH MORE FREQUENCY

WHAT COULD HAPPEN

*Droughts could hit the states of the southernregion and grow in frequency and intensity.

*Extreme temperatures could intensify insummer and winter.

*Grain production could become unfeasible in thesouth of Brazil, stimulating more rural exodus.

*The migration of crops northward could causegreater deforestation of the Amazon, which

would reduce the transportation of humidity andrains to the Southern Brazil.

*Increasingly intense rains will affect the cities,with great social impact in the poorer districts.

*Higher temperatures increase the incidence ofsicknesses and infant and senior mortality.

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Information Centre of Santa Catarina (Ciram/Epagri).Hydrological and pluviometric patterns in the three

southern states have also changed. In Rio Grande do Sul,for example, the number of consecutive days without rainis reducing and the number of days with consecutive pre-cipitations is increasing in all the seasons of the year.According to a study coordinated by the agro-meteorolo-gist Moacir Berlato, from UFRGS, the frequency of intenserains (more than 20mm) and very intense rains (morethan 50mm) grew, just like the annual pluvial precipitation.The study shows that Rio Grande do Sul is going through itsworst drought in its history and at the same time has morerain, which is more intense and concentrated.

Besides this, the rainiest period has inverted in thestate. Between 1960 and 1990, 51% of the precipitations inRio Grande do Sul were associated to the months of winterand 49% to the months of summer. This relation alteredbetween 1970 and 2000, with 51% of rain in the summermonths and 49% in the winter months, according to Aquino.

In Santa Catarina, precipitations also became veryintense, with a reduction of rainy days during the four sea-sons. The annual average volume continued the same.Before the the 70’s, rains with the intensity of 50 to100mm per day were rare cases in the state. After the70´s, they began to increase in intensity, becoming notrare anymore, states Braga, from Epagri.

Parana state also has shown evident signs of climaticchanges. In some municipalities, the analysis of data from1938 to 1995 detected an acceleration of the hydrological

cycle since the beginning of the 70´s, with an increase infrequency of more intense rains, the increase of averageriver outflows and the occurrence of droughts of longerduration (SILVA and GUETTER, 2003).

Global warming is one of the factors responsible forthese changes which have already been observed, but it isnot the only factor. The deforestation of the Amazon is alsoinfluencing the climatic alterations in the South. A signifi-cant part of water vapor formed above the forest is trans-ported by air currents to the South of the continent, formingrain over the Central-Southern of Brazil and the North ofArgentina. “The greatest part of drought events registered inrecent years is associated to the lack of the input of humid-ity coming from the Amazon”, says Aquino. In his opinion,climatic changes have already arrived in the South.

HISTORICAL DROUGHTS, SUFFERING FOR THE PRODUCERHow does all this affect the people’s lives? These

changes have a huge weigh on the environmental equilibri-um and a direct impact on agriculture, in which the economyof the region is based. Intense rains are not absorbed by thesoils raising fastly the levels of the rivers, which are drasti-cally reduced along the following days. Crops suffer hydro-stress because of the high temperatures. What makes itworse is the number of days without rain. The population isalready suffering with these changes. “When it is cold, it isreally cold and when it is hot, it is really hot. The heat here isincredible, it even burns the plants. It wasn’t like this before,I don’t know what is happening. They are fighting against

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nature. I think they are trying to be greater than God. This isvery bad for our children and grandchildren.”

These remarks were made by the farmer Inalda Peter,and it sums up well the feeling of perplexity of the smallrural producers from Rio Grande do Sul who have sufferedin the field as a consequence of the climatic changesdetected by scientists. Settled in Remanso, in the munici-pality of Canguçu, in the southeastern region of Rio Grandedo Sul, she remembers that she has gone through great dif-ficulties, “but now it is worse”, she states.

Elder people confirm these impressions. GermanoSchellin Filho, 64, a farmer from Canguçu, is no longer ableto survive only from agriculture. “Drought is sieging usmore and more. Since I have lived here we never had somany problems with lack of water. Only old folks stayaround here. Most people go away to find work in otherplaces. Years ago when it was summer, it was summer. Itrained in winter. The climate has changed a lot. Winter nowis hot and sometimes it is cold in summer”.

In the Southwestern region of the State the situation isthe same. “I see these changes with sadness for the peoplewho were born and raised in the countryside. It is very sadto watch the animals go thirsty…the cattle searching forwater. We resist because we are from here, we have ourroots here, but it is very difficult. Our sheep and cattle arelike family members”, laments Florindo Viera Neto, a farmersettled in Santana do Livramento (RS).

The complaints are not unfounded. In 2004-5 gauchoagriculture faced its worst droughts in the last 50 years.The harvest crash reached 8.5 million tons of grains (soy,corn and beans) with a record loss of R$ 3.64 billion and451 municipalities in emergency or calamity situations. Inthe last two decades, for every 10 harvests the gauchofarmers had 4 frustrated due droughts, according toBerlato, of UFRGS.

Technicians from the Technical Coordination of PemanentCouncil on Applied Agrometheorology from the State of RioGrande do Sul concluded that the most efficient strategy tominimize the impacts caused by droughts would be irriga-tion. In winter the water balance is positive and there isabundant water. Other strategies would be agro-climatic riskzoning and climatic forecasts of up to three months.

Producers from the Alto Uruguai Farming and cattleRaising Cooperative (Cotrimaio) de Tres de Maio (RS) arealready seeking alternatives to face climatic changes. Cropswhich require less water are being introduced, like sun-flower, canola and oats. Dairy farming has also expanded sig-nificantly with the utilization of permanent pastures wherethe effect of the lack of rain is less. Agronomy engineer JoaoCarlos Loro, production manager of Cotrimaio, says that thecooperative encourages scheduling of sewing dates of cornand soy and the use of crops with different cycles.

Producers from the Alto Uruguai Farming and cattleRaising Cooperative (Cotrimaio) de Tres de Maio (RS) are

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CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

already seeking alternatives to face climatic changes. Cropswhich require less water are being introduced, like sun-flower, canola and oats. Dairy farming has also expanded sig-nificantly with the utilization of permanent pastures wherethe effect of the lack of rain is less. Agronomy engineer JoaoCarlos Loro, production manager of Cotrimaio, says that thecooperative encourages the scheduling of sowing for cornand soy and the use of crops with different cycles.

In Santa Catarina, with the increase of dry periods, themost effective crops are those with the shortest cycles,like beans (between 80 and 90 days), corn and soy. Thesecultures, not artificially irrigated, suffer great yield losseswhen faced with short periods of days without rain, like 15or 20 days in the blooming, grain growth, and maturationstages. “The solution would be irrigation which is notalways possible in Santa Catarina because of the costs orlack of water”, evaluates Braga, of Ciram/Epagri.

Even a person who does not agree with the more pes-simistic scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC), like the gaucho scientist MoacirBerlato, is concerned about the situation and suggests thatauthorities develop adaptation strategies to new climaticconditions, like plant varieties which are more heat-toler-ant, irrigation, the use of fertilizers and periods of sowing.“We have to be prepared. We cannot be so optimistic thatwe become naive. We need to think about the future”,warns the researcher from UFRGS.

CHANGES IN THE ANTARCTIC AFFECT THE SOUTH OF BRAZIL

In the last 50 years the average temperature rise on the surface of the Antarctic peninsula was 3° C. Thecontinent also went through a drastic change in the pattern of wind circulation, snow precipitation andtemperature patterns inversion. These alterations affect other parts of the planet and cause significantchange in the southern climate of Brazil: a good part of the cold air masses which reached the region in recentyears has not come from the southeast of the Pacific or southern South America, as occurred in the past.“Now these wind masses are coming more frequently from the Eastern side of the Weddell Sea, in theAntarctic, a region which, in classic literature, has no direct relationship with South America. We havealready detected masses of air which in only two or three days have crossed the entire South AtlanticOcean and have reached the coast of Bahia”, says Aquino. According to the scientist, the masses of air fromthe Weddell Sea make the average temperature of the South measure between 0.5° and 1.5° C lower. Whenthis circulation does not occur, the temperature stays at average, or hotter. This has conditioned extremeclimatic situations: the alternation of very cold days and very hot ones.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE

*Adapt an agricultural calendar to the climaticalterations already observed in South Brazil and

stimulate diversification of crops and the use ofcrops of different cycles.

*Establish programs of reforesting with nativeplants to preserve water sources and riverbeds

and enhance the retention of water.

*Store water during the winter when the waterbalance is positive and establish agro-climatic

risk zoning and spread climatic prognostics of up to three months.

*Strengthen centers and institutions of highereducation researching climate and offer

training in public and private school systems on climatic changes.

*Improve climatic monitoring systems, with more meteorological stations and remote

sensing equipments.

*Equip Rio Grande do Sul with automaticmeteorological stations, linked to satellites

to provide data in real time, and stablish the State Center for Applied Meteorology.

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SIMULATIONS BY BRAZILIAN COMPANY FOR AGRICULTURALRESEARCH INDICATE THAT AGRICULTURAL ZONING WILL HAVETO CHANGE TO AVOID LOSS TO THE FARMERS AFFECTED BYTHE CLIMATIC ALTERATIONS. CROP MIGRATION WILL OCCUR,AS WELL AS CHANGES IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL ZONING

*

The rise in temperature and changes in the water bal-ance, caused by global warming, will have a significantimpact on agricultural production in Brazil. This was theconclusion of the study Impact of Hydrological CycleVariations on Brazilian Agroclimatic Zoning, as Result ofGlobal Warming, coordinated in 2005 by Eduardo DelgadoAssad, scientist at Embrapa, together with the University ofCampinas. The study suggests, from simulations based ona rise in temperature of 1° C, 3° C and 5.8° C and the addition

of 5%, 10% and 15% in rainfall precipitation, that, if thesescenarios are maintained, a strong spatial rearrangementcould happen in the geography of Brazilian agricultural pro-duction. Permanent crops like coffee and orange trees tendto seek regions having the mildest maximum temperaturespossible and the center of production could be movedtowards the southern part of the country.

Higher temperatures in the summer will condition themove of crops like rice, beans, corn and soy to the Midwest,possibly changing, in a significant way, Brazilian agricul-tural zoning. Since 1996 this zoning has been used inBrazil as a tool to reduce crop losses. It permits the quan-tification of the risk for each planting season, suggests thebest planting periods and the most appropriate varietiesfor each municipality. The simulations carried out duringthe study by Embrapa evaluated the new scenarios for fivecrops: soy, corn, coffee, rice and beans. The work took into

Grain crops tend to migrate toward the Midwest and the North, and coffee and orange crops toward the South of Brazil

AGRICULTURE

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CHANGES IN CLIMATE CHANGES IN LIVES

consideration scenarios pro-jected by the the Intergov-ernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC).

“There is already a cropmigration towards theMidwest and the North. Thismove is already happening.Climate changes will be onemore factor to strengthenthis tendency”, evaluates

Marcos Heil Costa, of the Agriculture EngineeringDepartment of the Federal University of Viçosa.

According to Assad’s study, the worst impact is esti-mated to be for crops in sandy soils, with a rise in temper-ature of 5.8° C. Under these conditions the soy crop woulddecrease by 3.4 million km2 of potentially productive landto 572 thousand km2, a reduction of 75%. The decrease forcorn would be 37% (from 4.6 to 2.9 thousand km2); forbeans 36% (from 4.8 to 3 million km2); and for rice, 51%(from 3.8 to 1.8 million km2).

BIOCHEMICAL ALTERATIONS WITH THE RISE IN CO2Some studies indicate that the rise of CO2 concentra-

tion can have a beneficial influence in crops productivityunder certain conditions.

For instance, in controlled experimental conditions theincrease of CO2 concentration resulted in the increase ofthe rate of photosynthesis ( 20% to 30%), describes Magda

Aparecida de Lima, scientist from the Brazilian NationalCompany for Agricultural Research (Embrapa, inPortuguese), in an article published in a report on climatchange of the the Office of Strategic Issues from thePresidency of the Republic in 2005.

IN THE WORST SCENARIO,THE POTENTIALLYPRODUCTIVE LAND FORSOY CROP WOULDDECREASE BY 3.4 MILLIONKM2 TO 572 THOUSANDKM2, A REDUCTION OF 75%.THE DECREASE FOR CORNWOULD BE 37% (FROM 4.6TO 2.9 THOUSAND KM2)

COFFEE WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE SOUTH

The increase in the annual average temperature of the atmosphere in 1° C, 3° C or 5.8° C will promote strongalterations in the regions considered apt for coffee planting, a permanent crop. Considering these threescenarios, the concentration of Arabic coffee in the states of Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Parana willbe drastically reduced in the next 100 years (Assad, 2005). In Minas Gerais, with the increase of 1° C in thetemperature and 15% in rainfall precipitation, the total area inapt for irrigated cultivation rises from 24.1% to43.3%. On the other hand, there is an increase in the areas which are naturally apt from 8.9% to 12.4%.In Parana, the increase of 1° C increases apt areas, with the move of productive area toward the south of thestate. In the intermediate scenario, with an increase of 3° C of temperature, there is a reduction in apt areafrom 86.8% to 66.7%. At 5.8° C, the reduction is drastic, down to 25.2% of area in the state. In all cases, therise in temperature will accentuate the abortion of flowers.

WHAT NEEDS TO BE