Catastrophe Preparedness:What are the Local and State-

Level Barriers?IAEM 2014 CONFERENCE

Rick Bissell, PhDScott Wells, MS, CEM

Jim Judge, CEM

Objectives

• Define and describe catastrophe• Describe research findings • Describe and assess federal catastrophe

readiness• Discuss importance of local self-sufficiency• Discuss barriers to state and local prep for

catastrophes• Describe several “successful” programs

Catastrophe Definition

• A catastrophe is an extreme event that overwhelms the nation’s ability to respond effectively using its own resources. – Could be rapid or slow onset– Outside assistance needed– Internal and external sequelae– Hypercomplex

Complications/Challenges

• Too large for any one entity to control• Many jurisdictions and levels• Complex dynamics/interactions• Hard-to-predict decision impacts• Demands exceed supply• Massive local isolation• Local knowledge but distant resources

Complications/Challenges - 2

• Vastly insufficient # of responders• Responders and law enforcement among

victims• Long wait for outside resources• Competition for scarce resources• Lack of household self-sufficiency• Conventional response mechanisms are not

sufficient

Complications/Challenges - 3

• Outmigration & those left behind• Mass resettlement• Lack of international agreements• Media coverage can impact response

operations• NIMS compliance

Federal Efforts & Changes

• Scenario-based explorations to examine needs– Mega earthquake, i.e. New Madrid– Mega hurricane, S. Florida– Improvised nuclear device– Pandemic

• Move to capability-based planning and prep• “Whole Community” concept• Focus on volunteers and private sector

Federal Efforts and Changes - 2

• Integrated Planning program– 15 planning scenarios– To-down approach

• Catastrophic Planning Program– Bottom-up in New Madrid Seismic Zone– South Florida

• PPD-8

Hypercomplexity Approach

• Modern society is hypercomplex with myriad linkages and interdependencies

• Private business and science may better understand linkages and interdependencies better than emergency managers

• Thorough use of non-government actors in planning and implementation

• Rapid reflection force

Conundra

• Local level has most knowledge of needs, the affected environment, and responsibility for direct services

• Has least access to:– Resources– Big picture– Trained logisticians and communications experts– Ability to re-direct resource flows

Conundra - 2

• Federal government has access to resources and expertise, but– Unity of effort is difficult to achieve on a national

scale (Authorities are shared among all levels of government)

– Often has little understanding of local needs or capabilities

– Has performance responsibilities but insufficient personnel

Conundra - 3

Federal, continued• Habit of legalistic rather than outcomes-based

decisions• Not a primary mission for virtually all federal

departments

Barriers – State Level Planning

• Small states have limited resources• Erroneous belief in self-sufficiency• Erroneous belief in “manna from Heaven”• Conflicting/changing federal

plans/programs/requirements• Lack of experience/high turnover• Filling potholes is more important than writing

emergency plans

Barriers – State Implementation

• Thin resources• Little control over crucial assets– Federal highways– Airports– International border crossings– Communications allocations– Interstate waterways

Barriers – City/County Planning

• Lack of resources/expertise• Belief in “manna from state”• Conflicting state/federal regulations, priorities,

and funding requirements

Barriers- City/County Implementation

• Resources quickly overwhelmed• Failure to see citizens as resources• Thinly spread human resources– Rapid expansion very difficult

• Limited domain over crucial resources

Avenues to Explore

• Greater incorporation of – PVOs, churches, universities, private business– Health care sector at all levels– Multi-jurisdictional planning committees– Response and recovery planning– Family and business preparedness programs– Neighborhood block programs – Technology advances (i.e. GIS)

Avenues to Explore - 2

• Formation of local/state science/tech rapid advice panel

• Development of citizen response groups– Citizen Corps– Maryland Responds

• Development of methods and plans for incorporating spontaneous volunteers

Avenues to Explore - 3

• Review/revise liability laws re volunteers• New doctrine

Vignette of a Successful County

• County to be selected by Jim Judge

Open Discussion

• How can we improve our ability to help our populations survive and recover from catastrophic disasters?

• How can we integrate “catastrophe thinking” into routine planning, training, equipping and testing activities?

Open Discussion - 2

• Are we being too critical? Should expectations be lowered?

• How can we reduce the feeling that we’re all alone in this process?

Thank you!

• Rick Bissell, PhDBissell@umbc.edu

• Scott Wells, MS, CEM ascottwells@gmail.com• Jim Judge, CEM jjudge@volusia.org