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Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms as we “Follow The Evidence” How to resolve problems with the science and move forward?

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Page 1: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

Catastrophe Deconstructed

A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming

Key science is explained in simple terms as we “Follow The Evidence”

How to resolve problems with the science and move forward?

Page 2: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

Is one of these taking bear-faced liberties with the truth?

Page 3: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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• What's the Story?

• How do greenhouse gases work?

• How do models arrive at catastrophic temperature forecasts?

• What are the links between warming and other environmental changes?

The Case for Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming – Key Questions

Page 4: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Scientific/MLO-emissions.htm

Meet the CO2 record from Mauna Loa

Page 5: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Set up in 1988 UN advisory body on climate science Over 130 countries are members 2007 assessment report involved 3500+ scientists

worldwide Summaries of reports approved by scientific reps

of all member countries

– Including USA, Saudi Arabia

Page 6: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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from BBC website

Page 7: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Page 8: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Page 9: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Page 10: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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CO2 in 2100 predictable from Mauna Loa chart

“CO2 in air tracks our emissions exactly – rise has to be due to us”

“CO2 rise unprecedented in Vostok chart – has to be due to emissions”

“Recent temp. rise must be due to CO2 - too little solar change”

“CO2 levels are rising further, with no end in sight”

“Let's calculate the worst and get the message out!!!”

Records Seem to Speak Volumes

Page 11: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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How Does Man Create CO2?

A Hydrocarbon

+ Oxygen (O2)

Traditional pollutants were fairly easy to eliminate Pollutants like sulfates (SOx) are reduced by reducing impurities

in the fuel and by scrubbing exhaust gases Pollutants like ozone, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide are

reduced by better combustion Pollutants like carbon and ash are reduced by filtration

But the only way to prevent carbon dioxide in emissions is not to burn fossil fuels - it is fundamental to combustion

Water (H2O) + Carbon Dioxide (CO2) +Heat

Page 12: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

12Getting a Feel for CO2: GHG effect at different levels of concentration

<<<Without CO2 we would be 33 °C colder. Theory: most greenhouse effect happens with the first 50 ppm

(parts per million), then it levels out

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm – red dot

A column of water with the same weight as the atmosphere is over 10m high (over 3 storeys)

Compared with this, CO2 ~ 4mm, the thickness of a wedding ring

Page 13: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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∆T = F(C2) – F(C1)Where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c2+0.0000014c3)

Likely CO2 Range by 2100Likely CO2 Range by 2100

IPCC's graph-generating formula:

∆T = F(C2) – F(C1)where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c2+0.0000014c3)

Page 14: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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One Degree? What Are We Missing?

The Answer is – Feedback

High enough feedback leads to runaway tipping points Venus is said to have runaway CO2 warming Examples of positive feedback assumptions of models

Increase in atmospheric water content (relative humidity constant with rising temps = more H2O)

Increase in methane releases from northern tundra Increase high cirrus clouds Decrease in albedo from melting ice Release of CO2 from warmer oceans

Page 15: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Feedback Multiplies or Reduces an Initial Disturbance

Negative Feedback

Positive Feedback

Disturbances are damped System remains near its starting

point, though it can oscillate

Disturbances are amplified System may end up far from its

starting point

Final Value is 1/(1-f) times Initial InputFinal Value is double the Initial Input when f=50%

Page 16: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

350 450 550 650 750

Atmospheric CO2, PPM

Te

mp

era

ture

In

cre

as

e,

Ce

lsiu

s

No Feedback +1.0 to 1.3C by 2100

+3.4C by 2100 (IPCC mean fcst)

+5.4C by 2100 (IPCC high fcst)

+10C by 2100

Feedback 60%

Feedback 87%

Feedback 75%

Page 17: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Temperature Projections From CO2 IPC C A 2 (no A batem ent) C ase

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

350 450 550 650 750

A tm ospheric C O 2, PPM

Tem

per

atu

re In

crea

se, C

elsi

us

From Greenhouse Gas Theory

From Climate Positive Feedback Theory

Catastrophic Global Warming Theory Based on Two Chained Theories

Page 18: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Do Rising Temperatures Lead to Other Negative Changes?

Changing rainfall patterns (drought in some areas, floods in others)

Melting ice and rising sea levels Increase in hurricanes, tornadoes, severe storms Rainforest loss, Species extinctions Migration of tropical diseases to new areas Or has alarmism been a natural but inappropriate

emotional response to unchecked data?

Page 19: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Getting a Feel for CO2: Plants

Page 20: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Getting a Feel for CO2: Annual Cycle

Page 21: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Getting a Feel for CO2: “Residence Time”

Page 22: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Depth of ice at Vostok, Antarctica, extends to over 3 km depth

1 atmosphere pressure = 1000 millibars (mb - old) = 1000 hectopascals (hPa)

Getting a Feel for CO2:

Firn & Ice Core Formation

Page 23: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?

• What do we really need to look at?

Page 24: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Glo

ba

l T

em

pe

ratu

re A

no

ma

ly,

De

gre

es

CHistoric Temperature Record shows

warming of about 0.7°C

Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH

Orange line is a centered 60 month moving averageLighter blue = switch to satellite data

Page 25: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Source: Hadley CRUT, UAH

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Glo

bal T

em

pera

ture

An

om

aly

, D

eg

rees C

Where's The Acceleration?Temperatures have been flat for a decade

Page 26: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Sea Surface Temperatures Flat

Page 27: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Tucson had Most Warming Since 1900Also most of rural USA (according to USHCN)

Page 28: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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USHCN Weather Station SurveyTucson, Arizona

Survey archived at www.WeatherStations.org

Official weather station in a parking lot!I wonder what this looked like in 1900?

Page 29: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Tucson AZ Site circa 1900

Page 30: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Surveys archived at www.WeatherStations.org

Bad Siting Frequently Found

Page 31: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Measuring the Phoenix Urban Heat Island 5 to 10 Degrees F

Meyer, 2008

Page 32: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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S

With Urban Growth, Temperatures Go UpAdjustments Should Go Down – Not Up!

Page 33: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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More Improper Handling of Station Data?

Page 34: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

34Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably

overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?

• What do we really need to look at?

Page 35: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Atmospheric EquationsWith a little help from climate skeptics,the IPCC equations can be made to balance, showingthe greenhouseeffect as real andessential to life.

But is it relevantto our emissions?

Page 36: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Source: IPCC AR4

Early Ice Core Studies seemed to have found the Smoking Gun...CO2 appeared to be a strong driver of global temperatures…

Page 37: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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...More Careful Measurements Reverse Findings, Suggest Another Cause...

Page 38: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

38...And Still More Careful Measurement Is Needed

Page 39: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Early IPCC Reports Found Current Temperatures to be Unexceptional...

Reconstructed temperature anomalySource: IPCC, 1990 AR1

Page 40: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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...Pattern Affirmed by Looking At the World's Oldest Thermometer Record...

Page 41: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

41… but Mann’s Hockey Stick Shows

Recent Warming as “Unprecedented”

Page 42: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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“Novel” Statistics, Bad Proxies

Page 43: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Trickery Confirmed Steve McIntyre investigates Mann's graph

Bristlecone pine data given 390-fold weighting to produce hockey stick shape Michael Mann and others refuse to cooperate

McIntyre & McKitrick report to US government via Wegman Report

Mann's graph condemned by top statistician Wegman as worthless, but reporters fail to convey this, drawing on partisan North report instead.

Wegman Report also notes existence of tiny “Team” at the centre

• RealClimate blog starts in 2005, covertly aiming to discredit climate skeptics, particularly Steve McIntyre

Steve responds by starting blog Climate Audit in January 2005 Climategate eventually gives proof after proof of scientific trickery and bad behaviour now

long suspected by Steve and others. McIntyre referred to in emails as “McFraudit”

Page 44: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Trick #1: Overlay red instrumental data on proxies during calibration period, to make the “hockey stick blade” appear forcefully steeper

Trick #2: No proxies shown in the last half of the instrumental record, since none go up that high & all would eventually diverge

Tricks #3-4: Truncate Briffa's proxy data that declined too far below requirements – at both ends

“Hide the Decline”Mail Online, 13/12/2009

Climate Audit,20/3/2011

Page 45: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Mann Flips Bad Proxy Upside Down -Tiljander's Finnish Lake Sediments

Warmer Year More Organic Matter in Sediment Lower X-ray Density

Original Proxy Findings

Medieval Warm PeriodSediments Disturbed by Agriculture (i.e. theproxy is meaningless anyway, in this period)

Mann 2008 (and others) Used the Proxy Upside-Down to Show Hockey Stick Warming

Page 46: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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YAD 061 From Russia With Love– most notorious tree in the world

Page 47: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

47Proxy Studies without those Questionable Series take us Back to the Traditional View

Page 48: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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IPCC Models Say Nature Would Have Cooled Without Man

Page 49: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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IPCC Models have a History of Incorrect Predictions

Page 50: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Current Lead Argument:Trust the Models. They say that warming is caused by Man

because we can’t think of Anything Else It Could Be!

Page 51: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Omitted: Land Use Changes Affect Temperatures

Deg C Per Decade fromLand Use Characteristics,1979-2003

Fall, S., D. Niyogi, A. Gluhovsky, R. A. Pielke Sr., E. Kalnay, and G. Rochon, 2009

Page 52: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Omitted: Recovery from the Little Ice Age

Carter, 2007

Page 53: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Omitted: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has an Enormous Effect on Temperatures

Page 54: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Omitted: Sun Has Been Unusually Active in Last 50 Years

Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1900-1949: 48Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1950-1999: 73

Mo

nth

ly S

un

spo

t N

um

ber

Trailing 10.8 Year Avg. Sunspot Number

Page 55: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Better examination shows the Sun is active now, as ever, in climate changes

Page 56: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

56Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably

overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?

• What do we really need to look at?

Page 57: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Positive Feedback is Unusual for Long-Term Stable Natural Processes

How can Mann (very narrow temperature variation over 1000 years) and assumptions of very high positive feedback both be right?

Page 58: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Atmospheric Moisture Content Not Growing as Fast as Modeled

Models assume relative humidity stays constant as temperatures rise, but in the real world, R.H. has been falling.

Page 59: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Methane Growth Slowing, Not Accelerating

Page 60: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

60Feedback Assumptions for IPCC

Forecasts are VERY High

200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Atmospheric CO2, PPM

Tem

per

atu

re I

ncr

ease

, C

elsi

us

Feedback = 0

Feedback = 60%

Feedback = 75%

Feedback = 87%

Today

Page 61: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Atmospheric CO2, PPM

Tem

per

atu

re I

ncr

ease

, C

elsi

us

High Feedbacks Greatly Over-Predict Past Warming

Feedback = 0

Feedback = 60%

Feedback = 75%

Feedback = 87%

~2100~1900

0.6CObservedWarming

{

Today

Page 62: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

62Sulfates & Black C. too Localized to use as Global Correction

If they cover 40% of the land area (10% of the world’s surface), it takes 10C of local masking to lower world temps 1C

Page 63: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

63

Is the Heat Hiding?Ocean Heat Content Hasn’t Risen

Chart Via Bob Tisdale

Page 64: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

64

In 1988 Hansen showed a good fit between his climate models and history. His forecast was grossly exaggerated.

Page 65: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

65Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably

overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?

• What do we really need to look at?

Page 66: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Marketing is Not Science

Global warming is being re-marketed as climate change / climate disruption / whatever name is the flavor of the month

Blame can thus be still allotted for all extreme weather events

But CO2 cannot change the climate by any mechanism we understand or has even been proposed EXCEPT via higher temperatures. CO2 cannot be causing climate change if it is not causing warming.

Page 67: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

67Warmer Weather has almost always been Beneficial

from Liu et al, JGS,@ Watts Up With That,

24-03-2011

Green = more vegetation Red = less vegetation

Page 68: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Percent of US Severely to Extremely DrySource: National Climate Data Center

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

60 Month Moving Average

There Is No Upward Trend In Droughts...

Page 69: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Percent of US Severely to Extremely WetSource: National Climate Data Center

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

60 Month Moving Average

And No Significant Trend In Wet Weather

Page 70: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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No Upward Trend in Hurricane or Cyclonic Activity

Page 71: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Al Gore Said Global Warming Is Increasing Tornadoes

It looks, at first, like he might be right.

But in fact the increase of measured tornadoes is mainly due to better measurement (e.g. Doppler radar, storm chasers)

Total US Tornadoes By Year

Page 72: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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But, in Fact, Large Tornadoes With Consistent Measurement are Flat to Down

In fact, high tornado spring of 2008 was the coldest spring in 15 years, well below last 30 years average

Total US Tornadoes By Year

Page 73: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

73

What is Normal?

Via Lindzen, 2009

“The arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot. Reports all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the arctic zone. Expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”

—US WEATHER BUREAU

Page 74: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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What is Normal?

Via Lindzen, 2009

“The arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot. Reports all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the arctic zone. Expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”

—US WEATHER BUREAU, 1922

Page 75: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

75

Navigable Arctic Ocean is Not New

Page 76: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Greenland Ice Sheet – No Problems

Box et al, 2009

Ice Core temperature data

Page 77: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

77

North Pole Ice “All-Time Low” on Same Day as South Pole All-Time High

Page 78: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

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Glaciers have been Retreating Far Longer than we have Emitted CO2

Source: Oerlemans, et al, 2005

Page 79: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

79

Sea Levels Have Risen at a Fairly Constant Rate since the Little Ice Age

Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. L. Woodworth (2008)

Fluctuating rate of rise of sea level

Actual Sea level

Page 80: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

80Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably

overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– No. Cooling is the difficult change, not warming

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?

• What do we really need to look at?

Page 81: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

81

Problems with the Precautionary Principle

“Ivory tower” idea disconnected from reality Not quantified: likelihood of catastrophe, size of

problem, level of success, cost of mitigation Real costs threaten to disrupt economies, hit the

poorest, and benefit none but profiteers Strangely neglected:

– History shows that it is cold that kills

– China has no intention of CO2 abatement

– Cap-n-Trade is an invitation to corruption

Page 82: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

82

Global Warming Alarmism is Undermining the Environmental Movement

Huge flaws revealed in the ethical conduct of environmental groups

MMGW and environmentally stupid behavior Subsidizing maize ethanol, which does not reduce CO2 but

has terrible effects on land use and raises the specter of starvation to the poorest people

MMGW alarmism could be seen as sign of mental illness / incompetence in other settings

We need to explore other alternatives to nuclear power – traditional green options are not enough

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What Use is the IPCC?

Page 84: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

84Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably

overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– No. Cooling is the difficult change, not warming

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?– Precautionary Principle invalid. Cap-n-Trade: costs high; benefits

zero. More important priorities. IPCC a self-serving parasite.

• What do we really need to look at?

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Whither Climate Science?

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New Vision can Come at the Strangest Moments

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A Plea for Better Basic Scientific Literacy & Integrity

Scientific objectivity & integrity of soul Media must safeguard scientific method and

defend the right to debate De-fund alarmist & conclusion-driven research Science with public consequences must have all

data and methods available & checkable

Schools must correct “CO2 = pollutant” lies

The future will need trustworthy science

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The future will need trustworthy science In particular, we will need heavy-duty

replacements for coal, gas and oil China has a R&D program for thorium reactors Russia is researching biological transmutation

treatments for radioactive waste Low Energy Nuclear Reactors (LENR) promise a

lot – if R&D funding can be found There are many other options already being

investigated, that need a lot more awareness, R&D backing, and enlightened regulating

A Plea for Real Energy Research

Page 89: Catastrophe Deconstructed A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming Key science is explained in simple terms

89Six Key Questions

• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably

overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– No. Cooling is the difficult change, not warming

• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?– Precautionary Principle invalid. Cap-n-Trade: costs high; benefits

zero. More important priorities. IPCC a self-serving parasite.• What do we really need to look at?

– Science education; transparency in climate science; disincentives to alarmism; proper R & D of LENR & thorium reactors, and other “fringe” energy production with serious potential

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Thank you

Warren Meyer

http://www.Climate-Skeptic.com

[email protected]

Anne Stallybrass aka Lucy Skywalkerhttp://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm