cash on the table 2015 - ey - ey - united statesfile/ey-cash-on-the-table-2015.pdf · inventory...

Cash on the tableWorking capital management in the consumer products industry, 2015

ContentsExecutive summary 1

Sharply improved WC performance in 2014 2

Sustained reduction in C2C since 2007 5

Size matters in WC performance 10

Case studies 11

Opportunities going forward 12

How EY can help 13

Methodology 14

Glossary 15

Contacts 16

2 | Cash on the table Working capital management in the consumer products industry, 2015

Executive summaryCash on the table is the latest in a series of working capital management reports based on EY research.Challenges to top-line growth have led consumer products (CP) companies to become ever more efficient in order to meet investor expectations. The results from our analysis of the top 20 CP companies in 2014 reveal a further improvement in working capital (WC) performance from the previous year in each of the selected segments. Of the three segments chosen for the analysis, household and personal care (HPC) reported the biggest improvement in 2014, with a drop of as much as 19% in cash-to-cash (C2C). Food and beverage (FB) saw a reduction of 5% in C2C, while brewing’s C2C was a negative eight days, almost two days lower than in the previous year.

These latest findings for 2014 mean that the CP industry has delivered a substantial reduction in its level of C2C since 2007, with progress continuing to be made in recent years in contrast to other industries. This ongoing improvement reflects the impact of many of the initiatives taken to boost return on capital, partly prompted by renewed pressure from shareholders.

Yet, at the same time, progress in WC remained far from uniform, with major differences in the degree of change between companies in each CP segment.

These differences are underlined by the fact that current WC performance continues to vary widely across each CP segment. While these performance gaps may partly result from variations in business models, they also highlight fundamental differences in the intensity of management focus on cash and the effectiveness of WC management processes. Overall, our research findings suggest that CP companies may have as much as US$39b in excess WC, over and above the level they require to operate their business model efficiently and meet all their operating requirements. This figure is equivalent to 6% of their combined annual sales. Interestingly, the WC performance gap between leaders and laggards has widened in 2014.

To capitalize on this opportunity, CP companies will need to embrace more substantial and sustainable changes in the way they do business and manage their WC. Businesses must become even more responsive and resilient, while delivering continuous process improvements and cost reductions. To achieve these goals, they will need to make changes to ensure that:

• WC remains a strategic focus throughout the year, with the whole business engaged and incentivized to drive improvement

• The organization is sufficiently responsive to change, with lean and agile manufacturing and supply chain solutions deployed for different products or market segments, as well as enhancing responsiveness through cross-functional cooperation and effective collaboration with key retailers

• Supply chains remain resilient through robust risk management policies, alternative sourcing and enhanced visibility across the end-to-end supply chain

• Strong discipline is exercised in terms and transactions, internal controls over cash and WC, and appropriate performance measures are in place

• The complex and evolving trade-offs between cash, costs, delivery levels and the risks that each company must take are clearly understood and properly managed

Our expectation for 2015 is that WC performance for the CP industry as a whole will continue to improve, but probably at a more moderate pace than in the previous year. The results are also likely to show even wider divergences between individual companies within each CP segment, reflecting varying levels of success in planning and executing effective responses to a rapidly evolving marketplace.

3Cash on the table Working capital management in the consumer products industry, 2015 |

Sharply improved WC performance in 2014The results from our analysis of the top 20 CP companies in 2014 reveal a further improvement in WC performance from the previous year in each of the selected segments.

Table 1: Change in WC metrics across the CP industry, 2013–2014

Brewing FB HPC

2014 Change 2014/2013 2014 Change

2014/2013 2014 Change 2014/2013

DSO 31.4 –5% (up 1.5 day) 35.7 0% (down 0.2 day) 32.5 –1% (down 0.4 day)

DIO 25.4 0% (up 0.2 day) 29.9 3% (up 0.9 day) 31.9 0% (up 0.1 day)

DPO 64.4 5% (up 3.1 days) 38.2 6% (up 2.2 days) 45.5 10% (up 4.1 days)

C2C (7.7) down 1.6 days 27.4 (5)% (down 1.5 days) 18.9 (19)% (down 4.4 days)

Note: Days sales outstanding (DSO), days inventory outstanding (DIO), days payable outstand-ing (DPO) and C2C, with metrics calculated on a sales-weighted basis

Chart 1: Change in C2C per company, 2013–14 (in days)

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FB HPCBrewing

Source: EY analysis, based on publicly available annual financial statements

Of the three segments chosen for the analysis, HPC reported the biggest improvement in 2014, with a drop of as much as 19% in C2C. FB saw a reduction of 5% in C2C, while brewing’s C2C was a negative eight days, almost two days lower than in the previous year.

A number of factors can explain these variations in WC performance overall and for each CP segment in 2014. These include:

Soft trading environment: 2014 was another challenging year for the CP industry, marked by sluggish consumer demand in developed countries, compounded by downward pressure on prices, softer growth in rapid-growth markets and adverse currency effects. Compared with 2013, the aggregate sales of our sample of CP companies were again slightly down in 2014 (consisting of an increase of 1% for brewing, a decrease of 3% for HPC and flat sales for FB). For each selected CP segment, WC levels in absolute terms were significantly down year-on-year, dropping by 5% and 21% for FB and HPC, respectively, and a negative balance increasing further for brewing.

Exchange rates movements: Movements in US dollar exchange rates also played some part in driving the industry’s WC performance in 2014. For companies reporting in US dollars, the reported reduction in their C2C was exacerbated by the impact of the US dollar’s strength against all major currencies at the end of the year compared with its average levels during the year. In contrast, for those reporting in euros and in Swiss franc, the strength of those currencies against the US dollar was a negative contributory factor.

Intensification of WC efforts: Many CP companies have intensified their efforts around WC, a trend partly prompted by increased pressure from shareholders. These initiatives have focused on reconfiguring manufacturing and supply chains to make them leaner and more agile, collaborating more closely with retailers, improving demand forecasting accuracy, managing payment terms for customers and suppliers more effectively, improving billing and cash collections, consolidating procurement, creating a more unified shared services organization, standardizing packaging, and simplifying structures.


Accelerated progress in payables performance: The CP industry exhibited a further substantial improvement in payables performance in 2014, with HPC, FB and brewing reporting year-on-year increases in days payables outstanding (DPO) of 10%, 6% and 5%, respectively. Sixteen companies (or 80% of the total) posted a higher DPO in 2014 than in 2013. This improvement was primarily driven by a further extension in payment terms, as well as by greater efficiency in procurement and payables processes. One HPC company also highlighted the positive impact of new supply chain financing initiatives.

More limited improvement in receivables performance: Only brewing reported a meaningful improvement in receivables performance in 2014, with direct sales outstanding (DSO) falling by 5%. HPC saw a drop of just 1% in DSO, while performance remained unchanged for FB. Only nine CP companies posted a lower DSO in 2014 than in 2013. One of the primary causes of the variations in DSO arose from changing payment practices with retailers. Compared with 2013, our analysis of the payables performance of the 13 largest retailers (by sales) headquartered in the US and Europe shows contrasting trends, suggesting that they chose either to ease or to increase payment pressure during 2014. US retailers saw a fall of 3% in DPO (based on cost to sales (COS)), while retailers in Europe reported an increase of 6%.

Mixed inventory performance: FB reported a deterioration in inventory performance, with days inventory outstanding (DIO) rising by 3%. In contrast, performance remained unchanged for both brewing and HPC. A narrow majority of companies (11) reported a higher DIO in 2014 than in 2013. For many of these companies, the benefits of weakening prices for food, metals and plastics, as well as additional improvements in manufacturing and supply chain operations have been mitigated by the need to build up inventory to serve rapid-growth markets and support capacity expansions and sourcing changes, while also improving service levels.

Chart 2: Change in food price index, 2012–14

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More specifically, there were variations in the degree of change in C2C among CP segments.

Strong showing for HPC: Of the three CP segments, HPC reported the biggest reduction in C2C (down 19%, or 4.4 days). This was primarily driven by a much-improved payables performance (DPO up 10%), notably on the back of a further extension of payment terms. DSO was down 1%, while DIO remained unchanged. However, only three out of seven HPC companies reported improved WC results in 2014 compared with 2013, with two of them showing reductions in C2C of close to 30%.

Further improvement for brewing: Brewing reported another solid improvement in WC performance in 2014 to reach a negative C2C of eight days. Progress came from a combined increase in DPO (up 5%) and fall in DSO (down 5%). DIO remained unchanged. Three brewers out of four registered better WC performance.

Improved results for FB: There was a further improvement in WC performance for FB in 2014, with C2C down 5% from its levels of 2013. Progress came entirely from better payables performance (DPO up 6%). In contrast with other CP segments, DIO was higher (up 3%). DSO remained unchanged. Five out of nine FB companies reported improved WC results in 2014, with three of them showing reductions in C2C of between 18% and 29%.


Sustained reduction in C2C since 2007The CP industry has delivered a substantial reduction in its level of C2C since 2007, with progress continuing to be made in recent years in contrast to other industries.

Yet, at the same time, progress in WC remained far from uniform, with major differences in the degree of change between companies in each CP segment.

Table 2: Change in WC metrics across the industry, 2007–2014

Change 2014/2007

Brewing FB HPC

DSO (19)% (down 7 days) (15)% (down 6 days) (14)% (down 5 days)

DIO (8)% (down 2 days) (7)% (down 2 days) (11)% (down 4 days)

DPO 72% (up 27 days) 13% (up 4 days) 44% (up 14 days)

C2C Down 36 days (32)% (down 13 days) (55)% (down 23 days)

FB HPCBrewing

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It should be noted that the start date of 2007 for the period under analysis has been selected to allow more meaningful comparisons of long-term performance, given the subsequent impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 on the industry.

Overall, the results of our analysis have been driven by a combination of factors affecting the CP industry as a whole, and various structural and operational factors specific to each CP segment and company.

Ongoing business transformation: CP companies have been responding in a variety of ways to the challenges facing the industry, significantly influencing C2C over time. These actions have involved reshaping their brand portfolios through acquisitions and divestitures, expanding into new markets and distribution channels, accelerating cost reductions and improving asset efficiencies.

Initiatives taken by individual companies: Progress — in many cases still ongoing — in WC performance also came from a number of initiatives taken by individual companies. These include:

• Streamlining manufacturing and supply chains

• Collaborating more closely with key retailers, other distribution channels and suppliers

• Improving demand forecasting accuracy through better modeling, collaborative forecasting and scenario planning

• Optimizing supply chain planning through improved data management and more integrated planning processes

• Accelerating billing cycles and improving cash collections, including ensuring adherence to contractual terms and billing trigger points, and enhancing dispute management

• Managing payment terms for customers and suppliers more effectively, through steps, including renegotiating terms and making increasing use of financing solutions

• Intensifying spend consolidation and standardization by increasing global sourcing, while rationalizing the supplier base

• Implementing more robust supply chain risk management policies


Changing trade-offs between cash, costs, delivery levels and risks: Changes in WC performance across the industry over time also reflect the complex and evolving trade-offs between cash, costs, delivery levels and risks that each company in each CP segment must balance to drive business growth, improve bottom-line performance and strengthen the balance sheet. For example, some companies may choose to trade off customer payment terms for sales price rebates, supplier payment terms for early payment terms, or inventory levels for consignment stock arrangements or customer service levels. In addition, as carrying WC became much less costly during the year following the decrease in the cost of capital, others may have chosen to trade off WC improvements against sales growth, margin expansion, or increased provision of financing solutions to their suppliers and customers.

BrewingBrewing reported the biggest improvement in WC performance among the three CP segments, with a drop in C2C of 36 days since 2007. Every brewer reported lower C2C, thanks to a much stronger focus on cash and WC management driven by the need to grow returns and repair balance sheets stretched by aggressive acquisition strategies. Two brewers were the best performers among the 20 CP companies analyzed, with reductions in C2C of 52 days and 39 days, respectively.

This rapid progress in WC has been driven by a much-improved payables and receivables performance (DPO up 72% and DSO

down 19%), resulting in a DSO — DPO differential that fell from a positive 1 day in 2007 to a negative 33 days in 2013. A negative figure means that brewers are able to collect from customers much faster than they pay their suppliers. DIO was also down 8% over the period.

Overall payables performance benefited from further extension of payment terms, as well as from increased centralization and globalization of procurement.

Industry consolidation played a significant part in boosting WC progress in recent years. Increased scale provided brewers with the opportunity to achieve significant cash and cost savings by leveraging relationships with customers and suppliers, and increasing supply chain efficiencies.

Another significant factor that has influenced WC performance has been rising sales in rapid-growth countries, which now account for half of the total. While they are typically seen as a potential drain on WC, the brewers have been able to grow investment in these markets, while also improving WC performance.

However, despite the efforts that have already been made, current WC performance continues to vary widely across the brewing industry. One of the brewers in particular exhibits a negative C2C of as much as 38 days. This wide disparity of performance in the brewing segment can be partly explained by variations in the way brewers manage their production and distribution models. For example, some are bound by a three-tier distribution system, while others may operate with or without in-house bottling operations.

Chart 4: C2C Chart 5: DSO

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FBThe FB segment has managed to reduce its C2C levels by 32% (or by the equivalent of 13 days) since 2007. Six out of nine FB companies reported lower C2C. Each WC component contributed to this overall improvement, with DSO and DIO down 15% and 7%, respectively, and DPO up 13%.

By improving billing and cash collection and driving greater efficiency in supply chain operations, companies in this segment appear to have been relatively successful in mitigating the effects of higher volatility in input costs and continued pressure from retailers for higher discounts together with enhanced payment terms and service.

However, it is worth noting that FB continues to exhibit a positive DSO — DPO differential of 2.5 days, in contrast with the negative figures reported by both brewing and HPC. This may suggest that the potential for improving both receivables and payables performance remains significant for most companies within this segment (see Opportunities going forward).

While significant progress has been achieved, current WC performance continues to vary widely among FB companies. However, the spread of WC metrics is lower than for brewers, if we exclude one outlier that exhibits a C2C of just three days (including best-in-class performance in both payables and inventory).


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HPCHPC has reported a strong WC showing since 2007 (with C2C dropping by 55%, or by the equivalent of 23 days). Five HPC companies out of seven reported an improvement in WC performance. Among our overall sample of CP companies, three HPC businesses were among the top five performers since 2007, with drops in C2C of 41 days, 34 days and 28 days, respectively, over that period. However, one HPC company was also the worst performer, with a gain of 11 days.

As with brewing and FB, progress has come primarily from payables, with DPO up 44% (equivalent to a gain of 23 days). Further increases in DPO can be expected, as a number of large

HPC companies further extend supplier payment terms, while offering supply chain financing through banks to help them mitigate part of this impact.

HPC’s receivables and inventory performance has also improved since 2007, with DSO and DIO down 14% and 11%, respectively.

As with other CP segments, current WC performance continues to vary widely among HPC companies. One of these companies in particular exhibits a negative C2C of five days, boasting best-in-class performance in receivables together with a top-quartile performance in payables, while highlighting the potential for further improvement in inventory.


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Size matters in WC performanceOur analysis also reveals that large FB companies not only carry much lower WC requirements than their smaller peers, but that the WC performance gap between the two subgroups has been widening.

These findings are based on a review comparing the WC performance of 50 US and European small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the FB segment with that of our selection of nine large FB companies. Using sales as the indicator of each company’s size, SMEshave been defined as companies with sales under US$5b.

Large FB companies exhibit much lower WC levels than their smaller counterparts, with superior performance in each area of WC. In 2014, their C2C was 45% below that of SMEs on a sales-weighted basis, with their DSO and DIO 9% and 36% lower, respectively, and their DPO 7% higher.

In addition, large companies have fared much better than SMEs. Between 2011 and 2014, the C2C of large companies has fallen by 27%, while that of SMEs has increased by 3%. These results were driven primary by payables, with DPO increasing by 22% for large companies, while it remained almost unchanged for SMEs. The receivables and inventory performance gap between the two subgroups also widened.

These overall results confirm that their higher scale has provided larger companies with better opportunities to resist pressure from retailers, negotiate favorable payment terms, and drive greater efficiency in manufacturing, supply chain and procurement operations.

While these results confirm that size matters in WC, it remains unclear how much of the WC differential between large companies and SMEs is due to SMEs’ reluctance to engage more openly with other participants in the value chain.

Table 3: Change in WC metrics between large FB companies and SMEs, 2011–14

C2C change 2014/2011 for FB

Large companies SMEs

DSO –4% +3%

DIO –6% +2%

DPO 22% 1%

C2C –27% 3%



• Global WC reduction program: EY helped a large CP company develop a global WC reduction program. This program involved defining roles and responsibilities for WC across all relevant functions; validating reporting processes with relevant stakeholders and supporting WC decision-making; reviewing existing WC process and identifying areas for improvement; developing detailed action plans to implement leading practices and measure progress through the design of appropriate KPIs; and putting in the place the right incentives to motivate change in internal behaviors.

• “Purchase-to-pay” process improvement: EY improved the “purchase-to-pay” processes of a CP client. The program involved segmenting the supplier base according to payment terms, trigger and frequency; renegotiating and harmonizing the payment practices for each segment, while ensuring compliance; eradicating the root causes of invoice processing delays; and introducing reports and metrics to monitor and assess progress.

• Inventory management improvement: EY reviewed the existing inventory management processes of a CP company and designed an action plan to reduce inventory levels. The company had pursued a number of such initiatives over a period of three years before engaging EY. Inventory levels were calculated to reflect the characteristics of each stock-keeping unit (SKU), including supply lead times, forecast accuracy, order-fill rate goals and ordering minimum quantities. Forecast accuracy was improved via the planning process, while lead times were reduced for key products. This program led to an overall reduction in inventory levels and write-offs, although some SKUs reported higher inventory levels to support improving service levels.

Case studies


Opportunities going forwardThe wide variations that our research reveals in WC performance between companies in each CP segment point to significant potential for improvement — amounting to an aggregate US$39b of cash for the top 20 CP companies.

We have calculated this gap by comparing the WC performance of each company with that of the average (low estimate) and the upper quartile (high estimate) of its segment peer group.

Differences in WC performance between companies in each CP segment may be partially due to variations in country and customer sales mix, degree of vertical integration and the nature of supply contracts, as well as in the way manufacturing, supply chain and procurement strategies have been deployed. Yet, on their own, these factors are not sufficient to explain the size of the gap. This suggests that companies in each segment fundamentally differ both in the degree of management focus on cash and also in the effectiveness of their WC processes.

Our high-level benchmarking analysis suggests that the leading 20 CP companies have between US$20b and US$39b of cash unnecessarily tied up in WC processes, equivalent to between 3% and 6% of their aggregate annual sales. Note that the upper range of cash opportunity overall and for each segment identified in 2014 is above the level calculated a year before (when it was 5%), meaning that the performance gap between leaders and laggards has widened.

Table 4: WC cash opportunity per segment, 2014

Cash opportunity

Value (US$b) % WC scope* % Sales

Average Upper quartile Average Upper quartile Average Upper quartile

Brewing 3 5 9% 16% 3% 5%

F&B 11 21 8% 18% 3% 5%

HPC 6 13 11% 22% 3% 6%

Total 20 39 10% 20% 3% 6%

* WC scope = sum of trade receivables, inventories and accounts payable Source: EY analysis, based on publicly available annual financial statements


EY’s global network of dedicated working capital professionals helps clients to identify, evaluate and prioritize actionable improvements to liberate significant cash from WC, through sustainable changes to commercial and operational policies, processes, metrics and procedure adherence.

We can assist organizations in their transition to a cash-focused culture and help implement the relevant metrics. We can also identify areas for improvement in cash flow forecasting practices and then assist in implementing processes to improve forecasting and create the frameworks to sustain those improvements.

WC improvement initiatives are also typically earnings-accretive. In addition to increased levels of cash, significant economic benefits may also arise from productivity improvements, reduced transactional and operational costs, and from lower levels of bad and doubtful debts and inventory obsolescence. Wherever you do business, our WC professionals are there to help.

How EY can help


MethodologyThis report is based on a review of the WC performance of 20 of the largest branded CP companies (by sales) headquartered in the US and Europe, and operating in the segments of brewing, food and beverage (FB), and household and personal care (HPC).

The segments have been selected on the basis of common features and business issues, such as fast-moving products, prominent brands, global reach and scale. A further common feature is that each of the companies has sales in excess of US$8b. While all our findings are based on publicly available data, the performance of individual companies is not disclosed.

The companies in the sample for this analysis include:

Brewing: Carlsberg, Heineken, ABInBev and SABMiller

Food and beverage: Campbell, Coca-Cola, Danone, General Mills, Kellogg’s, Kraft Foods, Mondelez, Nestlé and PepsiCo

Household and personal care: Beiersdorf, Colgate, Kimberly-Clark, L’Oréal, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever

Glossary• Days sales outstanding (DSO): year-end trade

receivables net of provisions, including VAT and adding back securitized and factored receivables, divided by full-year pro forma sales and multiplied by 365 (expressed as a number of days of sales, unless stated otherwise)

• Days inventory outstanding (DIO): year-end inventories net of provisions, divided by full-year pro forma sales and multiplied by 365 (expressed as a number of days of sales, unless stated otherwise)

• Days payable outstanding (DPO): year-end trade payables, including VAT and adding back trade-accrued expenses, divided by full-year pro forma sales and multiplied by 365 (expressed as a number of days of sales, unless stated otherwise)

• Cash-to-cash (C2C) equals DSO, plus DIO, minus DPO (expressed as a number of days of sales, unless stated otherwise)

• Pro forma sales: reported sales net of VAT and adjusted for acquisitions and disposals when this information is available

• COS: cost of sales (including depreciation and amortization)


Country Local contact Telephone/email

Asia Alvin Tan + 65 6309 [email protected]

Australia Wayne Boulton + 61 3 9288 [email protected]

Benelux Deniz Ates + 32 2 774 90 [email protected]

Canada Simon Rockcliffe + 1 416 943 [email protected]

Chris Stepanuik + 1 416 943 [email protected]

Finland Nicolas Beaumont + 32 2 774 96 [email protected]

Gösta Holmqvist + 358 207 280 190 [email protected]

France Arthur Wastyn + 33 1 55 61 01 [email protected]

Germany Dirk Braun + 49 6196 996 [email protected]

Bernhard Wenders + 49 211 9352 [email protected]

India Ankur Bhandari + 91 22 6192 [email protected]

Israel Nir Ben-David + 972 3 [email protected]

Latin America

Matias De San Pablo

+ 5411 4318 [email protected]

Sweden Peter Stenbrink + 46 8 5205 [email protected]

Country Local contact Telephone/email

UK&I Jon Morris + 44 020 7951 [email protected]

Matthew Evans + 44 020 7951 [email protected]

Marc Loneux + 44 020 7951 [email protected]

US Edward Richards + 1 212 773 [email protected]

Peter Kingma + 1 312 879 [email protected]

Mark Tennant + 1 212 773 [email protected]

Hye Yu + 1 312 879 3636 [email protected]

Contacts

Local contact Telephone/email

Global

Global Consumer Products and Retail Leader

Kristina Rogers

+ 90 212 315 [email protected]

Global Consumer Products and Retail Leader - Transaction Advisory Services

Gregory Stemler

+ 1 312 879 3351 [email protected]

16

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