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    Corporate Financial Analysis:

    Square Textiles Ltd.

    TERM PAPER

    FIN 639

    SEC: 1

    Submitted By:

    Ehsanul Hannan 081 124 060

    Noor-A-Nazia 081 125 060

    Md Sajjad Bin M Rahman 081 589 060

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    Md Sajjad Bin M Rahman 081 589 060

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    April 16, 2011

    Dr. Masud Rahman

    Professor

    MBA Program

    School of Business

    North South University

    RE: Submission of term paper on Corporate Financial Analysis: A Case

    on Square textiles Ltd.

    Dear Sir:

    We do hereby feel privileged to submit our term paper on Corporate

    Financial Analysis: Square Textiles Ltd., with an intention to have a

    better understanding of the course Corporate Finance.

    We greatly value the opportunity you gave us.

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    Acknowledgement

    At first, we show our gratitude to almighty ALLAH without whose grace,

    nothing is possible. Our special thanks go to the honorable course

    instructor of the course, Dr. Masud Rahman, who helped us in every

    sector to prepare this project paper with his acquired knowledge and

    vast experience. We are very grateful for his guideline and utmost

    patience towards us.

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    Abstract

    The objective of this case study is to find out the policy decisions made

    by Square Textiles Ltd. that influenced share price movement. We were

    also interested to analyze its investment decisions and the impact on

    share price. We also tried to forecast the share price by identifying

    growth opportunity of the firm.

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    Contents

    Chapter 1 Introduction & Methodology.................................1

    1.1 Introduction...............................................................................1

    1.1.1 Square Textiles Ltd. at a glance..........................................1

    1.2 Objective of the study................................................................1

    1.3 Methodology..............................................................................2

    1.3.1 Financial Analysis techniques..............................................2

    1.3.2 Statistical Techniques..........................................................3

    1.3.3 Nature and Source of Data..................................................3

    1.3.4 Time Period under Consideration......................................3

    1.3.5 Standard of comparison......................................................3

    1.4 Limitations of the study.............................................................3

    Chapter 2 Analysis & Interpretation of Financial Data............5

    2.1 Balance Sheet Analysis..............................................................5

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    4.2 Scenario 1: Growth at Sustainable Growth Rate......................28

    4.3 Scenario 2: Growth as per Gordon Model................................29

    4.4 Scenario 3: Growth at GDP growth rate...................................29

    4.5 Scenario 4: Optimistic..............................................................30

    4.6 Scenario 5: Pessimistic............................................................30

    4.7 Choice of Growth Rate.............................................................31

    4.8 The Plug Variable.....................................................................31

    4.9 Weighted Average Cost of Capital...........................................31

    4.10 Share Price according to Gordon Model...................................32

    Chapter 5 Findings and Conclusions....................................33

    5.1 Financial Performance.............................................................33

    5.2 Stock Price Movement.............................................................33

    5.3 Growth Prospect and Future Share Price.................................33

    Appendix 34

    A.1 Regression results...................................................................34

    A.2 Weighted Average Cost of Capital...........................................39

    A.3 Financial Statements & Performance Data..............................40

    A 3 Fi i l St t t & P f D t

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    Chapter 1

    Introduction & Methodology

    1.1 Introduction

    This case study is prepared with an intention to meet partial requirement

    of the course Corporate Finance and to have a better insight of the

    subject matter. We have chosen Square textiles Ltd., one of the leading

    yarn manufacturers of the country for this purpose. We performed an

    analysis of the company and tried to evaluate its justification with the

    acquired knowledge from this course.

    1.1.1 Square Textiles Ltd. at a glance

    Square Textiles Ltd. was established as a public limited company in 1994

    as a group company in Square Group with a business line of

    f t i d k ti f Th t t d it ti

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    Relate consequences of financial activities with the valuation of the firm

    1.3 Methodology

    A number of methods and techniques which were used towards reaching a

    conclusion are stated below: -

    1.3.1 Financial Analysis techniques

    A balance sheet analysis was performed to identify the sources of

    discrepancies in balance sheet that causes book value and market value

    of share to be different.

    A cash flow analysis was performed to study the cash dealings of the firm

    and to identify its financial position.

    We also performed a ratio analysis to evaluate the firms financial

    strengths or weaknesses. The most prominent Financial Analysis

    techniques include the following 3 methods: -

    B h M k A l i

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    Cross Section Analysis

    In this type of analysis, Companys financial ratios are compared with

    other industry ratio averages. This can also be performed by issuing

    comparison between two companies of similar business.

    For the sake of the case study, we will perform Time Series analysis on the

    seven year data that we have and a Cross Section analysis between our

    company of interest Square Textiles Ltd. and Apex Spinning & Knitting

    Mills Ltd (ASKML).

    1.3.2 Statistical Techniques

    To relate share price movement with different events or policy decisions

    e.g. account closing, record date, dividend declaration, AGM etc. we relied

    on simple regression by populating dummy variable against the event.

    1.3.3 Nature and Source of Data

    The data used in this study is secondary data collected from annual

    t d Dh k St k E h b it d d t hi

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    1.4 Limitations of the study

    Like all other case studies, this too has got its limitations. Following are

    the areas where we had our limitations

    Unable to conduct direct interview with Square Textiles employees

    to get a better insight of our findings.

    Unavailability of information in a Soft Copy which consumed lot of

    time.

    No information was available on the overall market share in the

    yarn industry in Bangladesh. Moreover, the industry averages were

    not also available which would have been a better option to

    compare with.

    Financial year of Square Textiles and ASKML ends in different

    months which can create inaccuracies in cross-section analysis

    Due to time constraint, cross section analysis was done only for last

    It ld b b tt if it d f l t 7

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    Chapter 1Analysis & Interpretation of

    Financial Data

    1.1 Balance Sheet Analysis

    The Balance Sheet shows the financial position of a firm at a specific point

    in time. The financial statement indicates the investments made by the

    firm in the form of assets and the means by which the assets were

    financed that is, whether the funds were raised by borrowing (which is

    actually the Liabilities part of a Balance Sheet) or by selling ownership

    shares or common shares or common stocks (which is basically the Equity

    part of a Balance Sheet). Amounts shown on a balance sheet are generally

    the historic cost of items and not their current values. Balance sheet can

    b d fi d A t Li biliti E it Th t id f th

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    Assets at Cost LessDepreciation

    1,378,552,606

    Deferred Tax Liability 112,276,486

    Investment-Long Term(At Cost) 105,000,000 Total Liabilities 2,388,878,289

    Share Money Deposit800,000,00

    0Equities

    Total Fixed Assets2,283,552,

    606Share capital 705,804,530

    General Reserve andSurplus

    2,413,563,497

    Tax Holiday -

    Total Equities 3,119,404,027

    Total Assets 5,508,282,316

    Total Liabilities &Equities

    5,508,282,316

    The above table shows the Balance Sheet of Square Textiles Ltd. as

    presented in their annual report. According to this balance sheet the book

    value of Square Textiles shares for the day December 31, 2009 should be

    44.19 Taka. But in reality we can see that the actual market price on that

    day was much higher than that, 111.54 Taka.

    Fi 1 C i b t M k t V l & B k V l f S

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    at cost less accumulated depreciation. But, as suggested by the Time

    Value of Money concept, price changes as time passes. Moreover, the

    depreciation was charged using the Straight Line method. From this

    analysis above we reach to a conclusion that the values of fixed assets are

    undermined. The asset composition shows that a significant 30% of fixed

    assets are land and building which have been recorded at historical cost.

    But over the years these assets market price has significantly increased

    which has not been reflected in the balance sheet.

    No Int angible A ssets section : It was found that the company did not

    incorporate any Intangible assets in the balance sheet. One of the most

    important intangible assets is Trademark which was not considered in

    preparing the balance sheet. Square Textiles Ltd. is in operation in

    Bangladesh for the last 11 years, since 1997, and has been holding a

    healthy position for last several years. They have been profitable with a

    fair performance in share market also. So, this is certainly an evidence of

    their goodwill which should be valued. The firm recently acquired Mithapur

    Textiles and also merged with Square Spinning Ltd. These M&A activities

    h b d d t/ h i B t th b d l i d

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    Goodwill was added valued as taka 2,000,000,000.

    General Reserve and Surplus has been changed from 2,413,563,497

    taka to 7,167,104,742 taka.

    As a result the Total Assets and Total Liabilities & Equities sides balanced

    at taka 10,261,787,561.

    Table 2: Balance sheet of Square Textiles Ltd. based on Market value of

    share

    Balance SheetAssets Liabilities and EquitiesCurrent Assets Current Liabilities

    Stocks942,568,13

    4

    Short Term Bank

    Loan

    573,802,35

    8Trade Debtors

    1,683,329,048

    Short Term Loan552,993,07

    3

    Short Term Loan431,848,64

    9Sundry Creditors

    870,756,515

    Advance, Deposits andPrepayments

    120,651,506

    Other CurrentLiabilities

    170,321,074

    Cash & Bank Balances 46,332,373Provision for incometax

    108,728,783

    T t l C t A t 3 224 729 T t l C t 2 276 601

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    1.2 Cash Flow Analysis

    The statement of cash flows is designed to show how the firms operations

    have affected its cash position by examining the investment and financing

    decisions of the firm. Often time, the information contained in the

    statement of cash flows answer questions like: Is the firm generative the

    cash needed to purchase additional fixed assets for growth? Does it have

    excess cash flows that can be used to repay debt or to invest in new

    products? Information contained in the Cash Flow Statement is useful both

    for financial managers and investors. Following is the cash flow analysis of

    Square Textiles Ltd.:-

    Table 3: Cash Flow Statement for Square Textiles Ltd. for the year 2009

    2009 2008Cash flow from operating activitiesReceipts:Cash from sales revenue 3,888,585,2

    442,763,272,8

    86Cash from other income 259,007 23,676

    Total cash receipts 3,888,844,2

    51

    2,763,296,5

    62

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    Activities 91) 05)

    Cash flow from financing activitiesShort term Bank loan (203,726,22

    7)(27,451,291

    )Short term loan from/(to) sister Concern 58,058,364 129,959,939Payment of Dividend (105,876,07

    9)(98,583,425

    )Net Cash Flow From FinancingActivities

    (251,543,942)

    3,925,223

    Net cash position 1,640,898 12,365,318Opening cash & cash equivalents 44,691,475 32,326,157

    Closing Cash & Cash Equivalent 46,332,373 44,691,475

    1.2.1 Analysis of the Cash Flow:

    Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities: The net cash flow from

    operating activities was much higher than previous year mainly due to

    increase in sales which shows a good sign for the company.

    Net Cash Flow from Investment Activities: There is no significant

    change in net cash flow from investment activities compared to the

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    Sources for these ratios are the company Financial Statements within the

    industry that contains figures on assets, liabilities, profits, and losses.

    Industry ratios are only meaningful when compared with other

    information. Since individual companies are most often compared with

    industry data, ratios help an individual understand a company's

    performance relative to that of competitors and are often used to trace

    performance over time.

    There are 5 major categories when ratio analysis is considered. These

    categories are:

    Liquidity Ratio which gives a picture of a companys short term financial

    situation or solvency.

    Asset Management Ratio uses turnover measures to show how efficient

    a company is in its operations and use of assets.

    Debt Management Ratio shows the extent that debt is used in a

    company's capital structure.

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    Table 1: Current Ratio for Square Textiles Ltd. & Apex Spinning & Knitting

    Mills Ltd.

    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2009

    CurrentRatio 1.35 1.21 1.38 1.12 1.41 1.14 1.01 1.10

    We can see from the above data that the current ratio for Square Textiles

    is 1.35, which is below the benchmark standard for any company. But

    comparing with Apex Spinning & Knitting Mills Ltd., it is higher as Apex

    Spinning & Knitting Mills Ltd. has a Current Ratio of 0.89.

    Figure 2: Current Ratio Trend

    The trend line of current ratio for Square textiles shows that the company

    has maintained a somewhat steady current ratio for the last 7 years and

    l h h b i i i f l

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    Currently Square Textiles is maintaining a quick ratio of 0.96, which is

    lower than the Benchmark ratio of 1. But comparing with Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills Ltd., it is much higher as Apex Spinning & Knitting Mills Ltd.

    has a Quick Ratio of 0.075.

    Figure 3: Acid Test Ratio Trend

    As we can see from the graph above, the quick ratio trend is not steady. It

    may indicate that the company has gone for multiple projects/investments

    in last few years. The companys quick ratio is pretty much close to the

    benchmark of 1.

    Overall Comment on Liquidity

    The overall liquidity position of the company is not very good but it is

    getting better. Both the ratios have increased in 2009. Considering the

    length of operation of Square Textiles the performance is quite good

    especially in terms of quick ratio as it is pretty close to benchmark. The

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    Table: Inventory Turnover for Square Textiles Ltd. & Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills Ltd.

    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2009Inventory

    Turnover 3.55 2.04 3.39 4.18 3.79 5.14 5.28 9.56

    The inventory turnover for Square Textiles is 3.55 whereas, Apex Spinning

    & Knitting Mills Ltd. has inventory turnover of 9.56. So, in this regard,

    Square Textiles is in a much worse position.

    Figure 4: Inventory Turnover Trend

    The trend line does not look very impressive. Inventory turnover is getting

    lower. This might be due to increasing price of raw materials and also due

    to price reduction to cope up with the competitive market. However, there

    is a very sharp rise from 2008 to 2009. This can primarily be attributed to

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    During the last year Square Textiles had a DSO of 158.26 days whereas,

    Apex Spinning & Knitting Mills Ltd. has DSO of 54.16 days. So, in this

    regard, Square Textiles is in a much worse position.

    Figure 5: Days Sales Outstanding Trend

    The trend analysis shows that during the period 2008 Square Textiles hadthe worst DSO of 202.06. in 2009, it improved a bit. But DSO is still too

    high. This may be due to the fact that most of Square Textiles dales are

    export sales which naturally take longer to be collected.

    Fixed Asset Turnover

    This ratio refers to how much sales or revenue is generated by employing

    the fixed assets of the company.

    AssetsFixedNet

    SalesTurnoverAssetsFixed =

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    Figure 6: Fixed Asset Turnover Trend

    The trend analysis shows that Square Textiles Fixed Asset Turnover

    deteriorated for during 2007 and 2008. But in 2009 it got a little better.

    Total Asset Turnover

    Like the fixed asset, this ratio refers to how much sales or revenue is

    generated by employing the fixed assets of the company.

    AssetsTotal

    SalesTurnoverAssetsTotal =

    Table: Total Asset Turnover of Square Textiles Ltd. & Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills Ltd.

    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2009

    l

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    Overall Comment on Asset Management

    Square Textiles is in a worse position than Apex Spinning & Knitting Mills

    Ltd. in all the Asset Management Ratio, except for DSO. Though high DSO

    is explainable, but the other ratios are not impressive at all.

    It seems that the company is not managing its assets very well though

    there is an indication that the company is getting better in asset

    management.

    1.3.3 Debt Management Ratio

    Debt Management Ratios judge the debt management performance of a

    company. If a company goes for too much debt for financing its

    operations, it might end up in a very hard financial situation.

    Debt Ratio

    The Debt Ratio measures the percent of total funds provided by creditors.

    Debt includes both current liabilities and long-term debt.

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    Figure 8: Debt Ratio trend

    The trend analysis shows that Square Textiles Bangladesh had a high debt

    ratio at the end of the year 2003. But after that the debt ratio has started

    to go down dramatically. This is actually a very good sign for the company.

    The company is managing debt in very efficient way.

    Times Interest Earned

    EBITTimes Interest Earned =

    Interest Charges

    Table: Times Interest Earned for Square Textiles Ltd. & Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills Ltd.

    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2009

    TIE 3.56 3.53 4.88 6.22 6.85 4.26 2.46 2.06

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    Square Textiles Ltd. had much lower debt ratio last year. Higher

    profitability might be the reason for what Square Textiles Ltd. did not take

    more loans.

    Last year Square Textiles Ltd. had much high TIE, which can also be

    justified by high profit of the last year.

    Square Textiles overall debt management performance is very impressive

    which is very good news for the company.

    1.3.4 Profitability Ratio

    Profitability is the company's ability to generate revenues in excess of the

    costs incurred in producing those revenues. Profitability Ration is the

    measure of performance showing how much the firm is earning compared

    to its sales, assets or equity.

    Profit Margin on Sales

    Net Income

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    The trend analysis shows that Square Textiles profit margin had been

    increasing till 2007. But for the last 2 years, we see a declining trend.

    Though sales has increased in last few years, the profit margin has gone

    down due to decline in price of finished goods and also due to increase in

    raw material price

    Return on Asset

    Net IncomeReturnon Assets=

    Total Assets

    Table: Return on Assets for Square Textiles Ltd. & Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills Ltd.

    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2009

    ROA4.73%

    4.07%

    10.12%

    11.18%

    9.88%

    7.83%

    6.71%

    1.68%

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    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2009

    ROE8.36%

    7.98%

    17.44%

    19.70%

    16.88%

    14.72%

    13.61%

    3.49%

    Last year, it had Return on Equity of 8.36%. It means by utilizing Taka 100

    of total equity available to common shareholders, it can have net income

    of Taka 8.36. ROE of Square Textiles was better than Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills ROE of 3.49%.

    Figure 12: Return on Equity trend

    The ROE trend is quite similar to ROA.

    Overall comment on profitability

    Square Textiles has been a profitable company almost since its

    establishment and during the past few years the Profit Margin ratio has

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    P/E Ratio of Square Textiles Ltd. in the last year was higher than that of

    Apex Spinning & Knitting Mills Ltd.

    Figure 13: Price / Earning Ratio Trend

    P/E Ratio of Square Textiles Ltd. climbed up in the last year from 2008.

    The company has maintained a healthy P/E ratio for the last 7 years.

    Market Value / Book Value Ratio

    Market Price per ShareMarket/BookValue Ratio=

    BookValue per Share

    Table: Market / Book Value for Square Textiles Ltd. & Apex Spinning &

    Knitting Mills Ltd.

    Company Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML

    Year

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    market investors and as a result the share price is quite high compared to

    book value which is also reflected in M/B ratio.

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    Chapter 2

    Stock Price Movement

    In this section of the report, we try to relate stock price movement with

    different events/corporate decisions like AGM, account closing, dividend

    declaration, M&A etc. by doing a simple regression of share price against a

    dummy variable populated indicating the event. The value of the dummy

    variable is taken as 0 for all dates before the event and 1 for all dates

    after the event. Regression was done with a 95% confidence interval.

    2.1 Account Closing

    Year R2 FSignificanc

    e FCo-

    efficient

    P-Valueof Co-

    efficient2008 0.78464 134.805 6.73182E-

    14

    13.3031746 6.73182E-

    14

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    2010

    16%Cash

    15%Bonus

    0.5659

    58

    53.4609

    5

    6E-09 -10.7548 6E-09

    We see significant positive correlation between dividend declaration and

    share price in 2008. In later years the correlation is more significant and

    there is an increase in R2 which indicates the correlation becoming higher.

    If we observe the dividend payout for these years, we find that thecompany has declared lesser and lesser dividends in the later years and

    the relation is significantly negative. This suggests that the stockholders

    definitely did not like the decrease in dividend payout.

    2.3 Record Date

    Year R2 FSignificanc

    e FCo-

    efficient

    P-Valueof Co-

    efficient

    20080.29892

    816.62913 0.000217 -8.16857 0.000217

    20090.96531

    1196.835 5.04E-33 -15.7315 5.04E-33

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    The regression results indicate significant relation between AGM and share

    price. However the relation was negative in 2008 and 2009 while we find a

    significant positive correlation in year 2010. The change in sign of

    correlation cannot be explained with available data.

    2.5 M&A Activities

    Apart from the regular annual events, we were interested to observe the

    effect on share price caused by 2 very big decisions made by Square

    Textiles in recent years: merger with Square Spinning Ltd. and acquisition

    of Mithapur Textiles Ltd.

    Decision R2 FSignifica

    nce F

    Co-

    efficient

    P-Valueof Co-

    efficientMerger with

    Square SpinningLtd.

    0.39219

    1

    23.2291

    62.6E-05 -3.91818 2.6E-05

    Acquisition ofMithapur Textiles

    Ltd.

    0.000123

    0.004814

    0.945042 -0.0599 0.945042

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    Chapter 3

    Prospective Analysis

    3.1 Different Growth Rates

    It is important to identify a practicable growth rate of a firm to be able to

    forecast its share price in future. Different growth scenarios create

    different effect on share price. In this study we first consider the following

    growth scenarios to observe the effect:

    Scenario 1: Growth at Sustainable Growth Rate

    Scenario 2: Growth as per Gordon Model

    Scenario 3: Growth at GDP Growth Rate

    Scenario 4: Optimistic Growth Rate

    Scenario 5: Pessimistic Growth Rate

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    Total Debt 2,388,878,289

    2,421,342,460

    2,454,247,810

    2,487,600,334

    Common Stock 705,840,530 705,840,530 705,840,530 705,840,530Retained Earnings 2,413,563,

    4972,455,955,

    3032,498,923,

    2022,542,475,

    022Total Financing 5,508,282,

    3165,583,138,

    2935,659,011,

    5425,735,915,

    886External Funds Needed 0 0 0 0Debt: Equity Ratio 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77

    Sustainable GrowthRate 1.36% 1.36% 1.36% 1.36%

    EPS 3.69 3.74 3.79 3.85Price (P/E = 30.227) 111.61 113.13 114.67 116.23

    1.2 Scenario 2: Growth as per Gordon Model

    According to Gordon Model, g=Retention Rate ROE

    In our case, Retention Rate = 16%

    ROE = 8.36%

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    Price (P/E = 30.227) 111.61 113.11 114.63 116.16

    1.3 Scenario 3: Growth at GDP growth rate

    GDP growth rate = 5.8%

    Table: 3 yrs Forecast at g = 5.8%

    2009 2010 2011 2012

    Sales 3,882,244,010

    4,107,414,163

    4,345,644,184

    4,597,691,547

    Net Income 260,634,002

    275,750,774

    291,744,319

    308,665,490

    Dividend 218,810,564

    231,501,577

    244,928,668

    259,134,531

    Addition to RetainedEarnings

    41,823,438

    44,249,197

    46,815,651

    49,530,958

    Total Assets 5,508,282,316

    5,827,762,690

    6,165,772,926

    6,523,387,756

    Total Debt 2,388,878,289

    2,527,433,230

    2,674,024,357

    2,829,117,770

    Common Stock 705,840,530

    705,840,530

    705,840,530

    705,840,530

    Retained Earnings 2,413,563,497

    2,457,812,694

    2,504,628,345

    2,554,159,303

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    316 779 535 842Total Debt 2,388,878,

    289

    2,866,653,

    947

    3,439,984,

    736

    4,127,981,

    683Common Stock 705,840,530

    705,840,530

    705,840,530

    705,840,530

    Retained Earnings 2,413,563,497

    2,463,751,622

    2,523,977,373

    2,596,248,273

    Total Financing 5,508,282,316

    6,036,246,099

    6,669,802,639

    7,430,070,486

    External Funds Needed

    0

    573,692,6

    80

    1,262,123,

    896

    2,088,241,

    356Debt: Equity Ratio 0.77 1.09 1.46 1.88Sustainable GrowthRate 1.36% 1.61% 1.89% 2.23%EPS 3.69 4.43 5.32 6.38Price (P/E = 30.227) 111.61 133.94 160.72 192.87

    1.5 Scenario 5: Pessimistic

    We assume a pessimistic growth rate of -10%

    Table: 3 yrs Forecast at g = -10%

    2009 2010 2011 2012Sales 3,882,244, 3,494,019, 3,144,617, 2,830,155,

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    1.6 Choice of Growth Rate

    In the earlier scenarios, we see that high growth rate is not sustainable

    and it requires a very high D/E ratio which is not desired. In the trend

    analysis section, we found that the firm maintains a Debt Ratio below

    50%. Considering this capital structure policy, it is very less likely that the

    company will go for debt financing to achieve high growth rates.

    We also found out that the sustainable growth rate is also quite similar to

    the growth rate found from Gordon Model. So, it seems that the firm is

    actually looking to grow at sustainable growth rate. So, we take the

    sustainable growth rate to predict future stock price of the company.

    1.7 The Plug Variable

    As the company policy is to keep the debt ratio below a certain level, the

    company has been changing the dividend payout ratio every year. So,

    dividend payout is the plug variable here.

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    Rm= 50.43%

    From these values, cost of equity Rj = 40.25%

    The firm has a debt ratio = 43.37%

    Weighted Average Cost of Capital = 29.65%

    1.9 Share Price according to Gordon Model

    According to Gordon Model, share price

    P = D1/(k-g) = D0(1+g)/(k-g)

    D0 = 3.1 k = 29.65% g = 1.36%

    So, P = 12.42

    We see that the stock of Square Textiles is highly overpriced. So, it is

    highly likely that the share price will go down in future.

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    Chapter 2Findings and Conclusions

    Square Textiles share price at the end of 2009 BDT 111.54 while its netasset value per share is only BDT 44.19. So, we were interested to find out

    the reasons behind this difference and also to predict future price

    movement. Following are the key findings in the study:

    2.1.1 Financial Performance

    Square Textiles is a profitable company

    It is not utilizing its assets efficiently. ROA is very low.

    The company is not highly levered

    The company may have some hidden profit in terms of market value

    of their fixed assets especially land and buildings

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    lot of trust among the investors. As a result, investors are ready to invest

    in the share even with a low return and growth opportunity.

    Appendix

    A.1 Regression results

    A.1.1 Account closing

    Year 2008

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

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    Year 20 10

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Re ression Stati

    Multiple R 0.07

    R Square 0.0

    Adjusted R Square -0.01

    A.1.2 Dividend Declaration

    Year 2008

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

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    Year 2010

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Re ression Sta

    Multiple R 0.7R Square 0.56

    A.1.3 Record Date

    Year 2008

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

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    Year 20 10

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Re ression Sta

    Multiple R 0.94R Square 0.88

    A.1.4 AGM

    Year 2008

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

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    Year 20 10

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Re ression Sta

    Multiple R 0.76R Square 0.58

    A.1.5 M&A Activities

    Merger with Square Spinning

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

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    A.2 Weighted Average Cost of Capital

    A.2.1 Calculation

    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Re ression Sta

    Multiple R 0.55

    R Square 0.30

    A.2.2 Average Market Return

    Average weekly return = 0.97%

    So, average annual return = 0.97*52 = 50.43%

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    A.3 Financial Statements & Performance Data

    Square Textiles Ltd.

    ASKML2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003Current Assets 3,224,729,710 3,437,049,714 1,909,672,000 1,417,780,000 1,391,410,000 1,357,092,000 1,284,065,000 481,192,792

    Current Liabilities 2,388,878,289 2,843,250,860 1,382,789,000 1,269,821,000 989,212,000 1,187,839,000 1,267,503,000 436,833,644

    Inventory 942,568,134 1,267,785,890 577,163,363 487,871,798 487,753,824 405,449,809 329,015,503 150,077,244

    COGS 3,348,870,289 2,589,019,736 1,958,696,404 2,041,065,393 1,847,818,461 2,083,702,523 1,737,055,759 1,434,176,589

    AccountsReceivable

    1,683,329,048 1,689,670,282 819,360,445 821,199,524 756,736,173 834,989,837 840,066,283 235,362,912

    Sales 3,882,244,010 3,052,235,640 2,541,543,000 2,620,966,000 2,390,979,000 2,459,201,000 2,102,670,000 1,586,094,474

    Fixed Assets 2,283,552,606 2,370,847,250 1,573,559,000 1,702,906,000 1,193,767,000 1,180,203,000 1,217,332,000 342,491,610

    Total Assets 5,508,282,316 5,807,896,964 3,483,231,000 3,120,686,000 2,585,177,000 2,537,295,000 2,501,397,000 823,684,402

    Total Debt 2,388,878,289 2,843,250,860 1,382,789,000 1,269,821,000 989,212,000 1,187,839,000 1,267,503,000 437,134,519

    EBIT 433,507,033 387,282,778 517,149,366 481,315,121 465,778,608 300,290,342 305,414,202 35,344,028

    Interest Expenses 121,730,159 109,701,045 106,026,180 77,350,086 67,966,406 70,530,935 124,160,747 17,176,247

    Net Income 260,634,002 236,529,908 352,447,136 348,833,453 255,494,330 198,689,678 167,893,727 13,814,819

    Common Equity 3,119,404,027 2,964,646,104 2,020,482,000 1,770,905,000 1,513,511,000 1,349,457,000 1,233,894,000 396,170,995

    Market Price 111.54 117.3 127.4 75.6 81.7 138.3 43.1 790

    EPS 3.69 4.71 8.94 8.85 6.48 5.04 4.26 16

    Book Value 44.19 50.04 51.23 51.65 49.66 48.7 44.53 472

    No. of shares 70,584,053 58,820,044 39,433,370 34,289,887 30,479,900 27,709,000 25,190,000 840,000

    Dividend payout 218,810,564 223,516,167 177,450,165 154,304,492 129,539,575 110,836,000 100,760,000

    Dividend per share 3.10 3.80 4.50 4.50 4.25 4.00 4.00

    Source: Annual Reports

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